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there would be a lot of happy pplNow THAT would make me happy!
sadly I'm still pessimistic
Who will make it to the JGP final?
- Thread starter The Finn
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sadly I'm still pessimistic
About a month ago I saw this could happen and now it has happen. Sima will not skate at Croatia and Russia will have only one entry. Totally retardedly played by the Russian Fed and this could very well cost Alisa's JGPF spot.
http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat00028472.htm
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- Mar 5, 2014
Why is Serfima out? Is it because of her low placement, some technical rule or an injury? Couldn't she help her teammates if she were to medal, though it may be very difficult? I am trying to understand why. I hope she isn't injured.
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- Mar 5, 2014
Thanks for the verification / information AlexRus and YesWay.
It makes no difference. Sakhanovich is in very bad state.
Btw, Higuchi (as show Tokyo Regionals) is not in very good or very bad state. Did not fully restore I believe.
Probably order of places which will earn Pervushkina, Honda, Higuchi is unpredictable.
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- Feb 20, 2013
Sakhanovich is healthy, right? Or is this just puberty?
It definitely could make a big difference in the spots for final. Serafima's total points even with that terrible Lp was still on the same level as Marin silver. Considering that she would not be nervous to fight for a spot in the final she probably would deliver a performance with less mistakes. I don't understand why Russian fed. is so harsh on Sima.
Serafima got high PCS scores for her 3-fall FS which also got a time violation. A 6.18 PE score with 3 falls? That is reputation scoring, of course.
Honda lost TES for two downgraded 3Fs, but that did not affect her performance, yet she had lower PCS scores than Serafima. Honda's was the first of her career, so she had no ISU reputation going in. So it really is not fair to compare Honda's score to Serafima's when their actual performances were not at all comparable.
I compared their total scores, not their actual performances, to make the point of why I don't understand Russian fed. decision to take her out of Croatia. Score wise she has almost the same chances as Marin to be on a podium. Unless it was her decision, which I highly doubt.
Sima is not in good physical condition. She could injure herself if she falls a few more times like in Logrono. The first fall in her LP was especially hard.
You HAVE to consider actual performance. Honda had a clean SP in SLC and a good FS with two DG jumps; she may be capable of two clean performances in Croatia. Who can say the same of Serafima after her disaster in Spain? Heck, Serafima lost to two US newbies in Spain!!
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So we have one spot for mens, two for ladies, and 2 for ice dance left to be 100% confirmed based on calculations. Vincent could potentially not make it if He Zhang wins, which mans that he'll go above Daniel but he'll still make it. Ice dance...well yeah.
Calm down. Serafima had the best/biggest reputation among the current junior ladies, and that gives her higher PCS. Which means even if her performance would be not as good as Marin's she still could get bigger total score and, therefore, she could beat Marin. That often happens in figure skating - someone more experienced, older and with excellent reputation skates badly and scores higher than a rather unknown skater with a clean skate, simply by PCS. We are talking about placements here, not actual performances, because that's what matter in order to qualify to JGP final. The specific performances are discussed in other threads. Marin's total score with a decent skate is only a few points higher than Serafima's total with a terrible LP performance. Therefore, I considered it very possible that Serafima beats Marin in Croatia. But now it all does not matter.
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So, at the last event, we really have only 6+ possible outcomes in ladies:
1. Diana/Wakaba/Marin = Diana and Marin go to final
2. Diana/Marin/Wakaba = Diana and Marin go to final
3. Marin/Diana/Wakaba = Marin and Alisa go to final (I very much doubt Diana can score higher than Alisa)
4. Marin/Wakaba/Diana = Marin and Alisa go to final
5. Wakaba/Diana/Marin = Wakaba and Marin go to final
6. Wakaba/Marin/Diana = Wakaba and Marin go to final
+A very little chance (I'd say 5-10%) that Paige will break through to the podium.
Therefore:
Marin's chances to be in the final are about 90% +
Wakaba's chances to be in the final are about 30%+
Diana's chances to be in the final are about 30%+
Alisa's chances to be in the final are about 35%+ (the extra 5% is in case if Paige outscores Marin| or Diana, if Wakaba is not first)
1. Diana/Wakaba/Marin = Diana and Marin go to final
2. Diana/Marin/Wakaba = Diana and Marin go to final
3. Marin/Diana/Wakaba = Marin and Alisa go to final (I very much doubt Diana can score higher than Alisa)
4. Marin/Wakaba/Diana = Marin and Alisa go to final
5. Wakaba/Diana/Marin = Wakaba and Marin go to final
6. Wakaba/Marin/Diana = Wakaba and Marin go to final
+A very little chance (I'd say 5-10%) that Paige will break through to the podium.
Therefore:
Marin's chances to be in the final are about 90% +
Wakaba's chances to be in the final are about 30%+
Diana's chances to be in the final are about 30%+
Alisa's chances to be in the final are about 35%+ (the extra 5% is in case if Paige outscores Marin| or Diana, if Wakaba is not first)
Marin skated in the SECOND event of the series, so she might be expected to score higher in her next event.
Anyway, Serafima finished SEVENTH in Spain. She was beaten by SIX other skaters, including two Americans who were making their JGP debuts. It is just as possible that Serafima would have skated badly in Croatia, which is why I suspect she was withdrawn from the competition. BTW, it is not a fair competition when a skater has a disastrous skate but based on reputation is held up with PCS scores high enough to beat other skaters who skate excellent programs. I am glad that did not happen in Spain.
tho I want Diana & Alisa in the final
Vincent will make it. After seeing the start order for the men's short I am pretty sure Hiwatasi will win here with Samarin 2nd, Zhang 3rd and Nadeau 4th. This will assure Vincent the 6th spot for the final.
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Samarin and Zhang both have PBs higher than Hiwatashi (and more competition experience)...how can you be so sure?
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Not exactly. He Zhang currently has 11 points. So if he wins, that'll make it 26 points. Which is the same as Daniel, Vincent, Roman, and Sota. BUT the rules are that 15+11 will give a higher ranking than someone with 2 silvers, which is 13+13. So the only way He Zhang will make it and hence Vincent not making it will be in He Zhang wins. Anything else means that Vincent will make it to the JGPF. That's the ONLY way.
