2018 Four Continents: ISU Predictions Game Round 2

[karne]

*making paranoid yelping screeching noises*

 

[surimi]

Ladies:
1. Miyahara
2. Mihara
3. Sakamoto
4. Bell
5. Tursynbaeva
6. Craine
7. Wang
8. Chartrand
9. Li
10. Andrews

Men:
1. Uno
2. Jin
3. Aaron
4. Mura
5. Brown
6. Yan
7. Ge
8. Kerry
9. Ten
10. Hochstein
Thanks to everyone who mentioned Keiji in their predictions for top 6, I cowardly passed him over for fear of jinxing him. Hope he proves me oh so wrong!

Pairs:
1. Iliuschechkina/Moscovitch
2. Kayne/O Shea
3. Alexandrovskaya/Windsor
4. Stellato/Bartholomay
5. Cain/LeDuc
6. Ruest/Wolfe
7. Kolodziej/Deschamps
8. Suzaki/Kihara
9. Miura/Ichihashi
10. Ryom/Kim

Ice Dance:
1. Hawayek/Baker
2. Muramoto/Reed
3. McNamara/Carpenter
4. Soucisse/Firus
5. Parsons/Parsons
6. Wang/Liu
7. Min/Gamelin

 

[Hyena]

MEN
1. Shoma UNO
2. Boyang JIN
3. Max AARON
4. Jason BROWN
5. Han YAN
6. Misha GE

LADIES
1. Satoko MIYAHARA
2. Kaori SAKAMOTO
3. Mai MIHARA
4. Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA
5. Da Bin CHOI
6. Angela WANG

PAIRS
1. Liubov ILYUSHECHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH
2. Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR
3. Tae Ok RYOM / Ju Sik KIM
4. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
5. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
6. Camille RUEST / Andrew WOLFE

DANCE
1. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
2. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
3. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
4. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED
5. Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS
6. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Jackie has the same prediction for ladies that I do but no one else on here does... *wink wink*

 

[Sabrina]

Ladies:

1. Satoko Miyahara
2. Kaori Sakamoto
3. Mai Mihara
4. Elizabet Tursynbaeva
5. Mariah Bell
6. Star Andrew

MEN

1. Shoma UNO
2. Boyang JIN
3. Nam NGUYEN:luv17:
4. Misha Ge
5. Eladj BALDE
6. Jason BROWN

Pairs:

1) Ekaterina Alexandrovskaya/ Harley Windsor
2) Liubov Ilyusheckina/Dylan Moscovitch
3) Tarah Kayne/ Danny O'Shea
4) Ashley Cain/ Timothy Leduc
5) Tae Ok Ryom/Ju Sik Kim
6) Deanna Stellato/Nathan Bartholomay

Ice Dance

1. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
2. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
3. Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS:luv17:
4. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
5. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED
6. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU

 

[Antyv]

Men
1. Shoma UNO
2. Boyang JIN
3. Keiji TANAKA
4. Jason BROWN
5. Han YAN
6. Misha GE

Ladies
1. Satoko MIYAHARA
2. Kaori SAKAMOTO
3. Mai MIHARA
4. Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA
5. Mariah BELL
6. Dabin CHOI

Pairs
1. Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR
2. Liubov ILYUSHECHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH
3. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
4. Tae Ok RYOM / Ju Sik KIM
5. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Ice Dance
1. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
2. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
3. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
4. Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS
5. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
6. Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN

testing scores
https://drive.google.com/file/d/17oNAlBOBVmKJQJ6MCr292Z7tGiYSbiyp

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Well, I think it would be a brave person to bet against an all-Japanese podium in Ladies.

For the remaining two scoring positions, I was dithering between four skaters – Chartrand, Tursynbaeva, Bell and Choi. Although Alaine didn’t do as well as expected at Nationals (due to a disappointing SP), I am still inclined to go with her for best of the rest. And for Lil Bet to be next along.

The alternate was a tough decision. Mariah or Da-Bin. Mariah was the revelation of last season, while Da-Bin has been impressive in Juniors for a few years. And there is very little to separate them in terms of absolute PB’s. But, in the end, I went for the young Korean.

In fact, when you looked at the absolute PB order, positions 6 to 11 were completely American or Korean.

Andrews and Wang were ahead of Park and Kim. But, I made some changes to this. I like So-Youn and now that we know she is retiring, I would love to see her go out on a high. I also switched the two Americans around. Purely because Angela has been scoring the high scores more regularly than Starr.

The question was whether to put Ha-Nul in 10th or Starr. And in the end, I went for Starr.

When it came to the Pairs, I had a dilemma. I REALLY wanted Ryom / Kim to be in a scoring position. But they were down in 8th position on the absolute PB list. So, it was a case of who to push down to put them in.

It started off straightforward enough – push down the Canadian partnerships that were in 6th and 7th. But then it became hard, because the partnerships above them were ones that I would otherwise have in the scoring positions.

I hated doing it because I really like them, but I chose the Aussie partnership. Purely because the partnerships were quite spread out, and they were the unfortunate partnership to be directly above the Canadians.

I also made a change at the top. I really like Dylan and Lubov, and would love to see go out on a winning performance.

For the rest, I just kept them in absolute PB order. I was debating swapping the two Canadian partnerships, but since Ruest / Wolffe were ahead in each segment at Nationals, I kept them ahead of Kolodziej / Deschamps.

With Ice Dance, I went for an all-American podium. Hawayek / Baker were definitely going on top. But I did deliberate over which way round to put the partnerships that have recently come up from Juniors. There was hardly anything to separate them at Nationals a few weeks ago. And that was the absolute PB for both of them.

In the end, I decided to put them the same way round as I did in my American Predictions. Well, it didn’t work then, so it might now.

Third place was always going to Muramoto and Reed. But, I wasn’t sure over who to put into 5th, 6th and 7th between the top Canadians, Chinese and Koreans.

I went with Soucisse / Firus because they have been into the 150’s twice this season, and then I put Min / Gamelin because they have been into them once. Which left Wang / Lui in 7th, as they haven’t got into the 150’s this season.

The rest were left in absolute PB order.

As I want to get to bed soon, the Men's predictions will be done tomorrow in a separate post.

CaroLiza_fan


FOUR CONTINENTS

Ladies

1. Satoko MIYAHARA, JPN
2. Kaori SAKAMOTO, JPN
3. Mai MIHARA, JPN
4. Alaine CHARTRAND, CAN
5. Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA, KAZ

Just for fun:
6. Dabin CHOI, KOR
7. Mariah BELL, USA
8. Soyoun PARK, KOR
9. Angela WANG, USA
10. Hanul KIM, KOR


Pairs

1. Liubov ILYUSHECHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH, CAN
2. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA, USA
3. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY, USA
4. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC, USA
5. Tae Ok RYOM / Ju Sik KIM, PRK

Just for fun:
6. Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR, AUS
7. Camille RUEST / Andrew WOLFE, CAN
8. Sydney KOLODZIEJ / Maxime DESCHAMPS, CAN
9. Miu SUZAKI / Ryuichi KIHARA, JPN
10. Kyueun KIM / Alex Kang Chan KAM, KOR
11. Riku MIURA / Shoya ICHIHASHI, JPN


Ice Dance

1. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER, USA
2. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER, USA
3. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS, USA
4. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED, JPN
5. Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS, CAN

Just for fun:
6. Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN, KOR
7. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU, CHN
8. Misato KOMATSUBARA / Tim KOLETO, JPN
9. Haley SALES / Nikolas WAMSTEEKER, CAN
10. Sarah ARNOLD / Thomas WILLIAMS, CAN
11. Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS, AUS

 

[semosk8tfan]

I am really looking forward to this event (and I love that dance won't be in the middle of the night for me!) The closer we get to the end of the season, the more my objectivity in making selections goes out the window. Good luck to the skaters and all the players

MEN
1. Uno
2. Jin
3. Brown
4. Ge
5. Yan
6. Nguyen

LADIES
1. Miyahara
2. Sakamoto
3. Mihara
4. Tursynbaeva
5. Bell
6. Wang

PAIRS
1. Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch
2. Alexandrovskaya/Windsor
3. Kayne/O'Shea
4. Ryom/Kim
5. Stellato/Bartholomay
6. Cain/LeDuc

DANCE
1. Hawayek/Baker
2. McNamara/Carpenter
3. Parsons/Parsons
4. Soucisse/Firus
5. Muramoto/Reed
6. Min/Gamelin

 

[sequinsgalore]

Men
1. Shoma Uno JPN
2. Boyang Jin CHN
3. Jason Brown USA
4. Misha Ge UZB
5. Han Yan CHN
6. Keiji Tanaka JPN

Ladies
1. Satoko Miyahara JPN
2. Kaori Sakamoto JPN
3. Mai Mihara JPN
4. Elizabet Tursynbaeva KAZ
5. Mariah Bell USA
6. Dabin Choi KOR

Pair
1. Liubov Ilyushechkina / Dylan Moscovitch CAN
2. Ekaterina Alexandrovskaya / Harley Windsor AUS
3. Tarah Kayne / Danny O'Shea USA
4. Tae Ok Ryom / Ju Sik Kim PRK
5. Ashley Cain / Timothy Le Duc USA
6. Deanna Stellato / Nathan Bartolomay USA

Ice Dance
1. Kaitlin Hawayek / Jean-Luc Baker USA
2. Lorraine McNamara / Quinn Carpenter USA
3. Kana Muramoto / Chris Reed JPN
4. Rachel Parsons / Michael Parsons USA
5. Carolane Soucisse / Shane Firus CAN
6. Shiyue Wang / Xinyu Liu CHN

 

[jiawen2016]

Ladies:

1. Satoko MIYAHARA
2. Mai MIHARA
3. Kaori SAKAMOTO
4. Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA
5. Mariah BELL
6. Starr ANDREWS

Men:
1. Shoma UNO
2. Boyang JIN
3. Misha GE
4. Jason BROWN
5. Han YAN
6. Nam NGUYEN

Pairs:

1. Liubov ILYUSHECHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH
2. Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR
3. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
5. Sydney KOLODZIEJ / Maxime DESCHAMPS
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Ice dance:

1. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
2. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
3. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
4. Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS
5. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
6. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED

 

[spamever39]

Men:
1 Shoma Uno
2 Boyang Jin
3 Nam Nguyen
4 Keiji Tanaka
5 Jason Brown
6 Takahito Mura
Ladies:
1 Satoko MIYAHARA
2 Angela WANG
3 Mai MIHARA
4 Kaori SAKAMOTO
5 Dabin CHOI
6 Mariah BELL

 

[randomfan]

I like So-Youn and now that we know she is retiring, I would love to see her go out on a high.

Soyoun is retiring? Where’d you get that info?

Anyways here are my predictions...

Men:
1. Uno
2. Jin
3. Brown
4. Ge
5. Yan
6. Tanaka
7. Nguyen

Ladies:
1. Miyahara
2. Mihara
3. Sakamoto
4. Tursynbaeva
5. Bell
6. Choi
7. Park
8. Wang

Pairs:
1. Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch
2. Alexandrovskaya
3. Kayne/O’Shea
4. Cain/LeDuc
5. Ryom/Kim
6. Stellato/Bartholomay

Ice Dance:
1. Hawayek/Baker
2. Parsons/Parsons
3. Mcnamara/Carpenter
4. Muramoto/Reed
5. Soucisse/Firus
6. Min/Gamelin

 

[eriecold]

Dance:

1.Hawayek/Baker
2.Parsons
3.McNamara/Carpenter
4.Soucisse/Frius
5.Marumoto/Reed
6. Min/Gamelin

Pairs:
1. Ilyushechkina / Moscovitch
2. Kayne/O'shea
3. Kim/Kam
4. Alexandrovskaya / Windsor
5. Cain/LeDuc
6. Ruest/Wolfe

Ladies:
1. Mihara
2. Sakamoto
3. Choi
4. Tursynbaeva
5. Miyahara
6. Bell

Men
1. Uno
2. Brown
3. Tanaka
4. Jin
5. Hochstein
6. Ten

 

[teamgoldengeese]

There are some odd predictions in my list (some would even say foolish) but I'm just sending some different energies out there. I mean, weirder things have happened.

Ladies
1 Mai Mihara
2 Satoko Miyahara
3 Elizabet Tursynbaeva
4 Kaori Sakamoto
5 Mariah Bell
6 Dabin Choi

Men
1 Boyang Jin
2 Shoma Uno
3 Misha Ge
4 Jason Brown
5 Nam Nguyen
6 Grant Hochstein

Pairs
1 Ekaterina Alexandrovskaya/Harley Windsor
2 Liubov Ilyushechkina/Dylan Moscovitch
3 Deanna Stellato/Nathan Bartholomay
4 Tarah Kayne/Danny O’Shea
5 Tae Ok Ryom /Ju Sik Kim
6 Ashley Cain/Timothy LeDuc

Dance
1 Kaitlyn Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker
2 Rachel Parsons/Micheal Parsons
3 Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter
4 Kana Muramoto/Chris Reed
5 Carolane Soucisse/Shane Firus
6 Shiyue Wang/Xinyu Liu

 

[semosk8tfan]

I am going out on a limb here and predicting that no one gets a perfect score in Dance this week! The Parsons really sunk most of us.:eeking:

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Soyoun is retiring? Where’d you get that info?

Drat. Got mixed up with Hae Jin.

Knew I should have checked, but I was doing things in a hurry yesterday. (Something came up yesterday afternoon which I didn't get doing any of the things I had planned to do then. So, I was trying to catch up last night).

Sorry for the mistake. But, it doesn't change the fact that I still want her to do well!

CaroLiza_fan

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

If I thought that the Ladies at Europeans was the Hunger Games, the Men at 4 Continents are not that far behind!

There were so many guys that I wanted to put into my Top 5. Like, the Top 14 on the absolute PB list are all capable of getting well into the Top 10. So, it was tough to cut it down.

Of course, there was no question over who I was putting in the Top 2 positions. But after that, I was being pulled in so many directions you would not believe. So, I put everybody in absolute PB order, and then started re-arranging them by a combination of gut and heart. And the order I cam up with bore no resemblance to the order they started in!

As usual when it comes to Four Continents, the biggest problem was what to do with Denis Ten. His highest score, from the 2015 edition of this championship, put him into 3rd position. But his recent scores would only just put him into the Top 15 of the absolute PB list. Consequently, I pushed him down to 10th, because I thought it would be too cruel to push him out of my Top 10 completely.

Everybody knows that I am biased towards the Japanese. So, it will be no surprise that I am putting the other 2 Japanese skaters into 3rd and 4th. But, I was torn over which way round to put them. Mura has the slightly higher absolute PB, but it was from the 2016 edition of this championship whereas Tanaka’s was from Nationals a few weeks ago. And at Nationals, Tanaka was 2nd while Mura was nearly 10 points behind him in 3rd.

All the statistics were saying “go for Tanaka”. But my heart was saying “go for Mura”. Although I like them both, I have been a fan of Mura for longer.

In the end, I went with my head, and put Tanaka on the podium.

For my final scoring position, I was looking at three skaters – Brown, Yan and Aaron. But, in reality, there was only really one candidate based on how this season has gone so far – Jason. So, it was a choice between the other two to be my alternate.

Han has the higher absolute PB by a couple of points, and it is from last season’s Asian Games whereas Max’s is from 2016 Nationals. And I normally would go for him, because it is obvious that he is a great talent, but just hasn’t had things go his way over the years. But, Max has done more competitions this season, so there is more to go on. And I would love to see him redeem himself after not doing too well at Nationals.

For the next two positions, I just kept Misha and Nam in absolute PB order. I like them both, but I’m going for the experience over the youth.

CaroLiza_fan


FOUR CONTINENTS

Men

1. Shoma UNO, JPN
2. Boyang JIN, CHN
3. Keiji TANAKA, JPN
4. Takahito MURA, JPN
5. Jason BROWN, USA

Just for fun:
6. Max AARON, USA
7. Han YAN, CHN
8. Misha GE, UZB
9. Nam NGUYEN, CAN
10. Denis TEN, KAZ

 

[Nathan13]

PAIRS:
1. Stellato/Bartholomay
2. Alexandrovskaya/Windsor
3. Kayne/O’Shea
4. Ryom/Kim
5. Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch
6. Cain/LeDuc
7. Ruest/Wolfe

If only I switched 1 and 6 and if only predictions after the SP counted for something :sad14:

 

[semosk8tfan]

DANCE RESULTS

Well, this week wasn't pretty!! The vast majority of us overestimated the placements of the Parsons and McNamara/Carpenter and underestimated Soucisse/Firus.
Congratulations to our THREE medalists: :clapper:

GOLD Off My Rocker with 70 points

SILVER Debrah with 65 points

BRONZE StitchMonkey with 60 points

Most of the scores have been put in the spreadsheet. Let me know if I have made any errors. Thanks for playing!!!

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Ladies results:

Gold: Me (Spirals for Miles) with 50pts
Silver: Weathergal, invisiblespiral, corynna, Yatagarasu, SnowWhite, alyssamarie, FSlover17, rosacotton, Alifyre, SubRosa, Sugarpova, Marius, voolfee, NYscorp6, casualfan, Sabrina, Antyv, sequinsgalore, semosk8fan, jiawen2016, and randomfan with 40pts
Bronze: Winry, xibsuarz, Puchi, sunnystars, skatemd1, selene16angie, surimi, eriecold, NoNameFace, and teamgoldengeese with 35pts

Kaori's win threw off everyone except me!

Results will be in the spreadsheet soon. PM me if there are errors