How to Qualify for Olympic Team Event?

[Crossover]

Considering the current juniors to be age eligible for seniors in 2017/18, Latvia (ladies, men), Czech Republic (ladies, men, pairs, ice dance), Poland (ice dance) can be ahead.

 

[4everchan]

Israel has a few ladies that theoretically could, though how likely it is remains to be seen. Here's a list of the female skaters representing Israel currently... a few of them are decent. I don't think any of them has a real hope of qualifying outright at the WC but is there an outside chance one of them could qualify at nebelhorn (or whatever the ISU decides is the qualifying event?) Yeah, I think so. http://www.goldenskate.com/directories/skater-directory/figure-skaters-and-ice-dancers-from-israel/

that list is very out of date though.... it lists skaters that are long retired...

 

[4everchan]

Considering the current juniors to be age eligible for seniors in 2017/18, Latvia (ladies, men), Czech Republic (ladies, men, pairs, ice dance), Poland (ice dance) can be ahead.

I was thinking about Latvia... but didn't know about pairs. They had a dance team at euros which didn't make the fd there but they have strong single skaters

 

[karne]

Considering the current juniors to be age eligible for seniors in 2017/18, Latvia (ladies, men), Czech Republic (ladies, men, pairs, ice dance), Poland (ice dance) can be ahead.

Again: you have to have three disciplines qualified.

And you are forgetting that it's not like Australia has been standing still since the last time, either. Last time Brendan hadn't even cracked 200 TCS, now he's within a whisker of a 150 FS. Last time Australia had no-one on the Senior GP, next week Brendan will take to Skate America for his second GP season. Our depth has improved across every discipline.

 

[Crossover]

Again: you have to have three disciplines qualified.

And you are forgetting that it's not like Australia has been standing still since the last time, either. Last time Brendan hadn't even cracked 200 TCS, now he's within a whisker of a 150 FS. Last time Australia had no-one on the Senior GP, next week Brendan will take to Skate America for his second GP season. Our depth has improved across every discipline.

This is the first conversation with you here, so there is "no again" with me. Thanks for the reminder though as I forgot it. I didn't read through all posts, but aren't inputs from various posters what you want? Those countries came across to my mind first. Moreover, other countries don't sit and do nothing. Czech skaters have improved across every discipline very quickly as far as I've watched. I have to check on Latvian and Polish skaters more closely though.

 

[4everchan]

i think you are correct that australia has greatly improved.

I think that some other countries may not yet be on the radar yet because of their younger teams (pairs and ice dance)... for instance, Latvia has 2 strong single skaters, which could be scoring higher than australia... if they have a young pair or dance team, just getting out of juniors, like the australian pair team, they could challenge for a spot... I think that's what Crossover meant here.

Again: you have to have three disciplines qualified.

And you are forgetting that it's not like Australia has been standing still since the last time, either. Last time Brendan hadn't even cracked 200 TCS, now he's within a whisker of a 150 FS. Last time Australia had no-one on the Senior GP, next week Brendan will take to Skate America for his second GP season. Our depth has improved across every discipline.

 

[Nathan13]

I was actually thinking of starting a thread about this very subject. I would love to see countries like Australia, Latvia, Israel, and Czech Republic in the Team Event. By my count, all four of those either have all four or need just one more in a specific discipline.

 

[ice coverage]

... Who knows, perhaps Japan won't even have a pairs team and will not be there???? That would open a big door!

Japan is almost a sure thing to qualify for the team event -- even without a pair who qualifies for the individual pairs competition.

IIRC:
For 2014, Takahashi/Kihara originally did not clinch a spot for the individual pairs comp at Sochi -- did not place high enough at Nebelhorn. And Japan still did (easily) qualify for the team event. The expectation was that the Additional Athletes quota would be what would allow a Japanese pair to compete in the team event. But b/c of a withdrawal, eventually turned out that Takahashi/Kihara were able to compete both in the individual pairs comp and the team event.

---

I do understand now - that basically, we won't know where they have to finish until we actually get to Helsinki (which is kind of unhelpful).

Also that we won't have any idea about who's where for team event until next year.

... So I'm more optimistic that #AustraliaForTheTeamEvent could be a reality.

And it really will be only after Helsinki has concluded that we'll be able to see in hindsight what placement was necessary to make the cut-off in each discipline for the quotas via Worlds for individual disciplines. Even after the men's SP and ladies SP especially, I imagine that too many variables will be in play to go into the FS with any reliable predictions that as long as Skater X gets Placement Y, then X's country will earn an OWG slot.

Go, Team Australia :yay:.

 

[4everchan]

Japan is almost a sure thing to qualify for the team event -- even without a pair who qualifies for the individual pairs competition.

IIRC:
For 2014, Takahashi/Kihara originally did not clinch a spot for the individual pairs comp at Sochi -- did not place high enough at Nebelhorn. And Japan still did (easily) qualify for the team event. The expectation was that the Additional Athletes quota would be what would allow a Japanese pair to compete in the team event. But b/c of a withdrawal, eventually turned out that Takahashi/Kihara were able to compete both in the individual pairs comp and the team event.

---

And it really will be only after Helsinki has concluded that we'll be able to see in hindsight what placement was necessary to make the cut-off in each discipline for the quotas via Worlds for individual disciplines. Even after the men's SP and ladies SP especially, I imagine that too many variables will be in play to go into the FS with any reliable predictions that as long as Skater X gets Placement Y, then X's country will earn an OWG slot.

Go, Team Australia :yay:.

regarding Japan, I am sure they can qualify a team with their singles points alone and of course they do have lower tier dance teams that are likely to qualify for WC and thus the whole team will be qualified for the Team event... pair team or not...

HOWEVER :

things move quickly of course and I am not following their pair teams... but last time I checked which is a long long time ago their top pair team had the same issue as when Mervin was skating for them : half-Canadian...

So let's say that this pair team is still together and not eligible, where do they go next... I am sure they have a younger, newer pair team they could send to complete the team.

BUT and this is where I am going with this : do they want to do such a thing? Many skaters complained the team event was difficult to handle, with the extra competing and the fatigue. Why would they have Yuzu and/or Shoma, (assuming those are the two top men) compete to rack up points, risk them to be tired or even injured, when their best bet is a 5th or a 6th place?

Aliona and Robin didn't compete in the team event if I recall... there's was no point getting tired just before pairs...

So, Japan could opt not going because without a strong enough pair team, and with the state of ice dance in Japan, they would have two burdens to carry... One is okay to medal, but two is too much. So, that's what I mean here by "not having a pair team" and not wanting to take part... Their singles athletes could definitely tell the Japanese federation that they don't want to compete in the team event... I can imagine Yuzuru deciding not to take part (or Mao if she qualifies) as their focus would be to medal on the singles.

Sometimes it's not just about what is possible on paper but also how strategically a federation wishes to advantage their top skaters. In the case of Japan, as they are really behind in 2 of the 4 disciplines (while other countries at the top are strong in at least 3 out of 4) it could make sense... in some respect, the format for the world team or the tcc is much better for them

 

[ice coverage]

regarding Japan ...

I'll put my two cents this way:

Amidst all the speculation in this thread, speculating that Japan will decline the 2018 Olympic team event seems far-fetched to me.

Some skaters were happy to compete in the Sochi team event -- in part because it gave them a chance to get a feel for competing on Olympic ice in the Sochi venue before the comps for the individual disciplines.
(I do not recall one way or the other whether or not any skaters from Team Japan were among those who expressed this sentiment.)

And Japan did compete in the 2014 Sochi team event, even with Japan's known weakness in pairs and dance.

As for 2018:
Muramoto/Reed are aiming for top ten in the world in dance, and it is not a ridiculous goal for them.
Kihara does have a new pair partner -- who is Japanese, I believe?? Although not Japan's best pair, they perhaps will be an option.

 

[4everchan]

I'll put my two cents this way:

Amidst all the speculation in this thread, speculating that Japan will decline the 2018 Olympic team event seems far-fetched to me.

Some skaters were happy to compete in the Sochi team event -- in part because it gave them a chance to get a feel for competing on Olympic ice in the Sochi venue before the comps for the individual disciplines.
(I do not recall one way or the other whether or not any skaters from Team Japan were among those who expressed this sentiment.)

And Japan did compete in the 2014 Sochi team event, even with Japan's known weakness in pairs and dance.

As for 2018:
Muramoto/Reed are aiming for top ten in the world in dance, and it is not a ridiculous goal for them.
Kihara does have a new pair partner -- who is Japanese, I believe?? Although not Japan's best pair, they perhaps will be an option.

as you said, the nature of this thread is bound to speculation. Is there a point dismissing any of them? Not really...

Athletes scratch events all the time at the games to save themselves for a more likely medal in one race or event. It's not common in figure skating because the sport doesn't have a long history of having athletes compete twice. Is the first team event a sound model for what federations will do in the future? Who knows? However, I wouldn't be surprised if more top skaters opted not to participate knowing that the team has no shot at a medal, considering health issues and injury risk. I've given an example of that with Germany already.

Do i agree it's unlikely Japan doesn't compete? Yes. Will they send their B team to save the A skaters? Possiible... could they decide not to send a team ? Not impossible

 

[ice coverage]

as you said, the nature of this thread is bound to speculation. Is there a point dismissing any of them? Not really...

Athletes scratch events all the time at the games to save themselves for a more likely medal in one race or event. It's not common in figure skating because the sport doesn't have a long history of having athletes compete twice. Is the first team event a sound model for what federations will do in the future? Who knows? However, I wouldn't be surprised if more top skaters opted not to participate knowing that the team has no shot at a medal, considering health issues and injury risk. I've given an example of that with Germany already.

Do i agree it's unlikely Japan doesn't compete? Yes. Will they send their B team to save the A skaters? Possiible... could they decide not to send a team ? Not impossible

I have been responding to your previous/original comment (I'm paraphrasing) that Japan might be completely absent from the 2018 Olympic team event ... opening up a slot for the likes of Australia or another federation.

Thus my focus has been on Team Japan's participation as a whole ... which is different from the issue of whether individual skaters within Team Japan want to participate or not.

Will note that Germany did not decline the 2014 Sochi team event.
Aliona/Robin did not compete. But Germany as a whole did.

As for Japan in 2018:
If all goes well, it will be the first Olympics for Satoko, Shoma and another man, Muramoto/Reed (as a couple), and perhaps others on Team Japan.
The 2018 Olympic team event could be valuable experience for them before they compete in the individual Olympic disciplines -- even if Yuzuru (for example) wants to skip it.

Given that karne's original questions boiled down to trying to assess the chances for Team Australia, does not seem realistic to me to mention a possible vacancy in the team event that otherwise would be filled by Japan.

Yes, I am speculating ... as are you. Agree to disagree.

 

[Interspectator]

Just looking at the attitude of Japan's skating federation and fans so far, Team events are very important. -Not just in skating, but in all sports. Relay teams, Gymnastic teams, Badminton, Pingpong, Skiing etc. the team event gets special focus.
Since Japan prides itself as a country of figure skating, they would try very hard to enter the team event for figure skating at the Olympics. -Who skates in it is another matter.

 

[4everchan]

Will note that Germany did not decline the 2014 Sochi team event.
Aliona/Robin did not compete. But Germany as a whole did.


Yes, I am speculating ... as are you. Agree to disagree.

hold on here I know Germany participated and I am not saying Japan won't just saying it's not impossible.

Regarding speculation, anything that we are discussing in this thread is speculation.... i cannot even tell you what I will be doing tomorrow so how would i know what anyone will do in 2018? it's just healthy discussion if it remains respectful

I am simply offering a perhaps very unlikely scenario that one team, (could even be France or Italy not going under such circumstances) from those in Sochi, who may be more middle pack ranked, opt to not go after one or more of their star skaters decide not to compete as they want to save their stamina for their event.

It's especially true when it comes to pairs as traditionally, it's the first event. Germany had a back up team and still does ... France : if J/C didn't want to compete, they don't really have a pairs back up at this point... though I cannot imagine France not participating, for other reasons

Anyways, I have opened the door to the remote possibility that a top team that is for sure not placing higher than 5 or 6 may not be there to save their star athletes... we will see if it happens or not, and Karne is a big girl, she can decide for herself if my remote possibility contributes to her dream scenario or not

 

[4everchan]

that's very true ! LOVED the japanese boys winning silver at the 4X100 Meters and they had the best outfits too

Just looking at the attitude of Japan's skating federation and fans so far, Team events are very important. -Not just in skating, but in all sports. Relay teams, Gymnastic teams, Badminton, Pingpong, Skiing etc. the team event gets special focus.
Since Japan prides itself as a country of figure skating, they would try very hard to enter the team event for figure skating at the Olympics. -Who skates in it is another matter.

 

[ice coverage]

hold on here I know Germany participated and I am not saying Japan won't just saying it's not impossible.

Regarding speculation, anything that we are discussing in this thread is speculation.... i cannot even tell you what I will be doing tomorrow so how would i know what anyone will do in 2018? it's just healthy discussion if it remains respectful ...

It is "possible" that Yuzuru will announce his retirement tomorrow -- because he wants to run away and join the circus.
Or Javi. Or Duhamel/Radford. Etc., etc.

But I don't see any point in bringing up such possibilities. YMMV.

 

[zebobes]

Also, there is a new Junior pair that is showing some promise, where both skaters have Japanese citizenship. Ami KOGA / Spencer Akira HOWE (who used to compete in singles for the US) competed this year, so Japan has at least two couples to choose from.

 

[4everchan]

It is "possible" that Yuzuru will announce his retirement tomorrow -- because he wants to run away and join the circus.
Or Javi. Or Duhamel/Radford. Etc., etc.

But I don't see any point in bringing up such possibilities. YMMV.

I proposed a possibility that a middle tier country in the team event that has a medal hope in the individual event not participate in the team event not that it will rain cows tomorrow.

 

[4everchan]

Also, there is a new Junior pair that is showing some promise, where both skaters have Japanese citizenship. Ami KOGA / Spencer Akira HOWE (who used to compete in singles for the US) competed this year, so Japan has at least two couples to choose from.

good to know Spencer has Japanese citizenship. I was wondering about that.

 

[Crossover]

Estonia, Finland, UK, Israel can be in contention too. They have skaters possibly to get opportunities to polish their assets and to earn minimum TES before going to Worlds this year in at least 3 disciplines such as B-level competitions (most of B events held in Europe), Euros/4CC. I've seen a lot of Estonian, Finnish and British skaters compete on CS events these days. Because of Majorov's return to competition, Sweden hypothetically has a chance if they have skaters in mixed disciplines, but the country seems to not care about it though.