Skaters scores stats/rankings/predictions

[Baron Vladimir]

This data is based on the scores skaters got this season in international Senior competitions, such as Challenger and Grand Prix series, Euro/4CC and Olympics. It includes average scores, range of scores and prediction on placements based on those range of scores. Average score is based on this season scores (deductions for falls/late start or finish etc. are not included in this data). Range of scores is based on possible minimum and maximum scores skaters may got this season (meaning that minimum and maximum possible scores are made by any minimal or maximum TES or PCS skaters got across all the international competitions they were involved in this season). Predictions on 2018 World FS Champs placement include range of possible skaters placement based on minimum possible and maximum possible skaters scores of this season. Skaters who are medal contenders are ranked by their average score and they have detailed stats of their scores presented. Possible top 10 finishers (and possible top 5 contenders) are ranked by possible highest placements they may got at 2018 Worlds and detailed stats are not presented in their scores analyses.... Be free to ask if you need some further explanations

LADIES:

Medal contenders:

1.Zagitova (RUS)
Average score: 226.06
SP 74.25 (TES 40.41 PCS 33.84/8.42/8.30/8.47/8.55/8.55)
FP 151.81 (TES 80.21 PCS 71.60/8.84/8.77/9.16/8.96/9.01)
Range of scores: 206.86 - 241.45
Worlds placement: 1st - 6th

2. Osmond (CAN)
Average score: 216.74
SP 74.60 (TES 38.65 PCS 35.95/8.94/8.75/9.07/9.05/9.13)
FP 142.14 (TES 69.84 PCS 72.30/9.08/8.78/9.02/9.11/9.20)
Range of scores: 208.66 - 231.01
Worlds placement: 1st - 6th

3. Miyahara (JPN)
Average score: 209.54
SP 71.17 (TES 36.52 PCS 34.65/8.65/8.46/8.69/8.69/8.81)
FP 138.37 (TES 67.54 PCS 70.53/8.81/8.57/8.84/8.88/8.99)
Range of scores: 191.56 - 223.24
Worlds placement: 1st - out of top 10

4. Higuchi (JPN)
Average score: 209.52
SP 71.63 (TES 38.47 PCS 33.16/8.30/8.01/8.38/8.36/8.40)
FP 137.89 (TES 70.12 PCS 67.77/8.53/8.23/8.54/8.51/8.55)
Range of scores: 198.91 - 218.63
Worlds placement: 1st - 10th

5. Kostner (ITA)
Average score: 207.97
SP 73.59 (TES 36.17 PCS 37.42/9.23/9.15/9.38/9.47/9.54)
FP 134.38 (TES 60.33 PCS 74.05/9.24/9.08/9.20/9.35/9.41)
Range of scores: 191.40 - 222.61
Worlds placement: 1st - out of top 10

6. Sotskova (RUS)
Average score: 204.16
SP 68.36 (TES 35.58 PCS 32.78/8.24/8.00/8.25/8.22/8.27)
FP 135.80 (TES 68.44 PCS 67.36/8.39/8.14/8.55/8.47/8.55)
Range of scores: 189.37 - 216.47
Worlds placement: 1st - out of top 10

7. Tennell (USA)
Average score: 199.01
SP 66.33 (TES 37.24 PCS 29.09/7.29/7.10/7.37/7.33/7.27)
FP 132.68 (TES 69.90 PCS 62.78/7.78/7.61/8.00/7.87/7.98)
Range of scores: 189.29 - 206.86
Worlds placement: 2nd - out of top 10

8. Nagasu (USA)
Average score: 189.62
SP 63.77 (TES 33.47 PCS 30.30/7.81/7.26/7.58/7.64/7.58)
FP 125.85 (TES 63.25 PCS 62.60/8.07/7.52/7.92/7.82/7.80)
Range of scores: 175.35 - 205.72
Worlds placement: 3rd - out of top 10

9. Daleman (CAN)
Average score: 189.15
SP 67.34 (TES 34.64 PCS 32.70/8.26/7.94/8.16/8.24/8.28)
FP 121.81 (TES 57.38 PCS 64.43/8.24/7.81/8.00/8.14/8.08)
Range of scores: 170.79 - 206.66
Worlds placement: 3rd - out of top 10

Top 10 contenders:

10. Konstantinova (RUS) 4th - out of top 10
11. Choi (KOR) 4th - out of top 10
12. Tursynbaeva (KAZ) 4th - out of top 10
13. Bell (USA) 7th - out of top 10
14. Hendrickx (BEL) 8th - out of top 10
15. Kim (KOR) 8th - out of top 10

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Where do the upper ranges for Zagitova, Higuchi, Daleman, Nagasu, and Kostner come from?

 

[Ziotic]

Where do the upper ranges for Zagitova, Higuchi, Daleman, Nagasu, and Kostner come from?

I would guess their best TES +PCS even if they are from different competitions.

 

[Shayuki]

Using average scores for Zagitova isn't very useful considering that they're not actually swinging but rather progressing - She's not going to be scoring 31/65 PCS any time soon.

Interesting how high up Wakaba is, though. Could even place second if the stars align.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

I would guess their best TES +PCS even if they are from different competitions.

Yes. Even PE score and TR score for example could be from different competitions. Thats why is called possible highest score (or potential), its not season best.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Using average scores for Zagitova isn't very useful considering that they're not actually swinging but rather progressing - She's not going to be scoring 31/65 PCS any time soon.

Interesting how high up Wakaba is, though. Could even place second if the stars align.

You should use all the data including range of scores, not just average scores. For example Zagitovas average is closer to her highest possible score than the lowest one, meaning she skated mostly clean and she has better potential to score higher. Comparing to that, Osmond average is closer to her lowest possible score, meaning she didnt skate her best usually. But she still have some chances to beat Zagitova if Zagitova gets her lower scores... Wakabas average is good yeah, but if they all skate their possible best Wakaba will only fight with Sotskova for 5th place, according to these stats. Also in average scores here deductions are not included, so they are generally higher...

 

[Tavi...]

Perhaps you should change the title to reflect that the focus of the thread is top 10 ladies, not men, pairs, or ice dance.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Perhaps you should change the title to reflect that the focus of the thread is top 10 ladies, not men, pairs, or ice dance.

I will post theirs data too

 

[Baron Vladimir]

MEN:

Medal contenders: (a lot of them here!)

1. Uno (JPN)
Average score: 296.53
SP 102.13 (TES 55.99 PCS 46.14/9.29/9.04/9.24/9.29/9.28)
FP 194.40 (TES 102.68 PCS 91.72/9.34/8.95/9.11/9.20/9.26)
Range of scores: 277.82 - 321.86
Worlds placement: 1st - 5th

2. Chen (USA)
Average score: 284.00
SP 94.11 (TES 50.30 PCS 43.81/8.78/8.62/8.71/8.85/8.85)
FP 189.89 (TES 102.03 PCS 87.86/8.86/8.49/8.83/8.90/8.85)
Range of scores: 262.65 - 321.61
Worlds placement: 1st - 7th

3. Jin (CHN)
Average score: 273.38
SP 92.71 (TES 51.31 PCS 41.40/8.39/8.03/8.36/8.33/8.29)
FP 180.67 (TES 99.47 PCS 81.20/8.36/7.79/8.17/8.17.8.11)
Range of scores: 242.80 - 304.80
Worlds placement: 1st - out of top 10

4. Kolyada (RUS)
Average score: 266.01
SP 87.65 (TES 44.89 PCS 42.76/8.72/8.36/8.44/8.64/8.60)
FP 178.36 (TES 91.86 PCS 86.50/8.83/8.45/8.51/8.72/8.74)
Range of scores: 235.59 - 293.93
Worlds placement: 1st - out of top 10

5. Zhou (USA)
Average score: 254.16
SP 78.76 (TES 42.73 PCS 36.03/7.37/7.06/7.00/7.36/7.24)
FP 175.40 (TES 100.28 PCS 75.12/7.64/7.23/7.58/7.58/7.53)
Range of scores: 225.63 - 277.33
Worlds placement: 2nd - out of top 10

6. Aaron (USA)
Average score: 253.76
SP 83.26 (TES 44.48 PCS 38.78/7.96/7.41/7.81/7.84/7.76)
FP 170.50 (TES 91.30 PCS 79.20/8.11/7.58/8.02/7.98/7.91)
Range of scores: 237.66 - 266.68
Worlds placement: 2nd - out of top 10

7. Aliev (RUS)
Average score: 250.01
SP 87.65 (TES 47.39 PCS 40.26/8.17/7.85/8.09/8.10/8.05)
FP 162.56 (TES 80.74 PCS 81.81/8.28/8.00/8.08/8.28/8.07)
Range of scores: 224.63 - 282.03
Worlds placement: 1st - out of top 10

8. Ge (UZB)
Average score: 249.72
SP 84.04 (TES 42.31 PCS 41.73/8.17/8.05/8.41/8.45/8.65)
FP 165.68 (TES 80.90 PCS 84.78/8.30/8.20/8.55/8.57/8.77)
Range of scores: 239.28 - 260.05
Worlds placement: 3rd - out of top 10

9. Bychenko (ISR)
Average score: 241.65
SP 82.13 (TES 42.62 PCS 39.51/7.87/7.56/8.05/8.00/8.03)
FP 159.52 (TES 80.76 PCS 78.76/7.90/7.66/7.98/7.94/7.90)
Range of scores: 214.71 - 261.40
Worlds placement: 3rd - out of top 10

10. Messing (CAN)
Average score: 241.01
SP 84.42 (TES 44.74 PCS 39.68/7.96/7.76/7.92/8.00/8.04)
FP 156.59 (TES 74.33 PCS 82.26/8.20/8.02/8.19/8.28/8.44)
Range of scores: 217.37 - 258.07
Worlds placement: 3rd - out of top 10

11. Tanaka (JPN)
Average score: 240.04
SP 83.04 (TES 43.43 PCS 39.61/8.04/7.67/7.91/7.96/8.03)
FP 157.00 (TES 78.36 PCS 78.64/8.06/7.67/7.75/7.97/7.88)
Range of scores: 208.18 - 260.31
Worlds placement: 3rd - out of top 10

Top 10 contenders:

12. Samohin (ISR) 4th - out of top 10
13. Kvitelashvili (GEO) 4th - out of top 10
14. Brezina (CZE) 5th - out of top 10
15. Nguyen (CAN) 5th - out of top 10
16. Vasiljevs (LAT) 6th - out of top 10
17. Rizzo (ITA) 7th - out of top 10

 

[chuckm]

The ISU Results page is up, and guess who's on the Ladies Tech Team? None other than SHIN AMANO!

 

[karne]

The ISU Results page is up, and guess who's on the Ladies Tech Team? None other than SHIN AMANO!

YAAAAAAAY! *celebrates*

 

[colormyworld240]

The ISU Results page is up, and guess who's on the Ladies Tech Team? None other than SHIN AMANO!

Poor Satoko And Kaetlyn and Wakaba for edges =(

 

[Mango]

On Twitter this is old news and they're already getting ready to celebrate Satoko's second World silver medal because she won her first under him.

 

[karne]

5. Zhou (USA)
Average score: 254.16
SP 78.76 (TES 42.73 PCS 36.03/7.37/7.06/7.00/7.36/7.24)
FP 175.40 (TES 100.28 PCS 75.12/7.64/7.23/7.58/7.58/7.53)
Range of scores: 225.63 - 277.33
Worlds placement: 2nd - out of top 10

6. Aaron (USA)
Average score: 253.76
SP 83.26 (TES 44.48 PCS 38.78/7.96/7.41/7.81/7.84/7.76)
FP 170.50 (TES 91.30 PCS 79.20/8.11/7.58/8.02/7.98/7.91)
Range of scores: 237.66 - 266.68
Worlds placement: 2nd - out of top 10

This is very interesting. For all that people are trying to claim Vincent is somehow so much better than Max, the average score (which Vincent's is boosted by that rather generous Olympic score) is less than a point apart. Max (whom people decry for being so bad at PCS) has a higher average PCS in BOTH PROGRAMS AND a higher TES in the SP AND a higher SP average score this season. His lowest score is also nearly 12 points higher than Vincent's lowest score.

Jeepers, I don't know if I'm more grinning that Max is still shining so bright or even more upset about Nationals and Vincent's stupid PCS there.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

^^^

This season scores for Vincent, Max, Adam and James are basically at the same level. I guess USA Fed went with Vincent cause they think he can score higher with all those quads, BUT...

 

[Baron Vladimir]

PAIRS:

Medal contenders:

1. Savchenko/Massot (GER)
Average score: 224.68
SP 75.54 (TES 38.69 PCS 36.85/9.15/9.11/9.17/9.30/9.33)
FP 149.14 (TES 73.87 PCS 75.27/9.34/9.29/9.42/9.47/9.52)
Range of scores: 213.89 - 239.41
Worlds placement: 1st - 5th

2. Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)
Average score: 220.89
SP 78.20 (TES 41.34 PCS 36.86/9.29/9.05/9.28/9.26/9.20)
FP 142.69 (TES 68.91 PCS 73.78/9.36/9.09/9.17/9.26/9.23)
Range of scores: 204.68 - 233.25
Worlds placement: 1st - 6th

3. James/Cipres (FRA)
Average score: 213.01
SP 73.35 (TES 38.69 PCS 34.66/8.59/8.50/8.76/8.73/8.74)
FP 139.66 (TES 68.86 PCS 70.80/8.82/8.67/8.88/8.94/8.94)
Range of scores: 204.12 - 219.36
Worlds placement: 1st - 7th

4. Yu/Zhang (CHN)
Average score: 209.21
SP 72.40 (TES 39.05 PCS 33.35/8.36/8.22/8.31/8.51/8.28)
FP 136.81 (TES 67.88 PCS 68.93/8.77/8.51/8.55/8.70/8.55)
Range of scores: 200.23 - 221.43
Worlds placement: 1st - 9th

5. Zabiiako/Enbert (RUS)
Average score: 201.32
SP 69.85 (TES 37.68 PCS 32.17/8.10/7.81/8.08/8.10/8.12)
FP 131.47 (TES 66.30 PCS 65.17/8.15/7.96/8.16/8.23/8.23)
Range of scores: 185.68 - 213.45
Worlds placement: 2nd - out of top 10

6. Marchei/Hotarek (ITA)
Average score: 198.19
SP 67.26 (TES 35.52 PCS 31.74/7.80/7.66/8.06/8.02/8.13)
FP 130.93 (TES 65.79 PCS 65.14/7.96/7.95/8.24/8.25/8.31)
Range of scores: 180.26 - 216.71
Worlds placement: 2nd - out of top 10

7. Seguin/Bilodeau (CAN)
Average score: 193.58
SP 65.09 (TES 33.91 PCS 31.18/7.82/7.62/7.83/7.87/7.80)
FP 128.49 (TES 65.37 PCS 63.12/7.87/7.67/7.97/7.98/7.96)
Range of scores: 180.67 - 204.64
Worlds placement: 3rd - out of top 10

Top 10 contenders:

8. Astakhova/Rogonov (RUS) 4th - out of top 10
9. Della Monica/Guarise (ITA) 4th - out of top 10
10. Peng/Jin (CHN) 5th - out of top 10
11. Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN) 5th - out of top 10
12. Scimeca Knierim/Knierim (USA) 5th - out of top 10
13. Ryom/Kim (PRK) 5th - out of top 10
14. Alexandrovskaya/Windsor (AUS) 6th - out of top 10
15. Duskova/Bidar (CZE) 6th - out of top 10

 

[Colonel Green]

If James and Cipres are ever going to medal at the World Championships, the time is now.

 

[lovaticcanada]

I think James/Cipres have an edge, but do not count out the Italian team who did well at the olympics, as well as Yu/Zhang to make up for a bad olympics. It is also their opportunity to win as well.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

ICE DANCE:

Medal Contenders:

1. Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
Average score: 200.69
SP 80.97 (TES 42.03 PCS 38.94/9.65/9.60/9.83/9.76/9.84)
FP 119.72 (TES 60.82 PCS 58.90/9.71/9.66/9.90/9.88/9.93)
Range of scores: 191.88 - 205.72
Worlds placement: 1st (nobody here can beat them according to stats)

2. Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
Average score: 186.40
SP 75.42 (TES 39.02 PCS 36.40/9.07/8.95/9.17/9.12/9.19)
FP 110.98 (TES 55.82 PCS 55.16/9.17/9.00/9.26/9.25/9.29)
Range of scores: 179.22 - 191.84
Worlds placement: 2nd - 6th

3. Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA)
Average score: 183.54
SP 74.50 (TES 38.03 PCS 36.47/9.00/8.89/9.24/9.17/9.29)
FP 109.04 (TES 54.32 PCS 54.72/9.01/8.91/9.19/9.21/9.28)
Range of scores: 178.15 - 188.29
Worlds placement: 2nd - 6th

4. Chock/Bates (USA)
Average score: 182.98
SP 74.22 (TES 37.84 PCS 36.38/9.01/8.95/9.16/9.17/9.19)
FP 108.76 (TES 54.00 PCS 54.76/9.01/8.99/9.14/9.26/9.24)
Range of scores: 174.86 - 189.12
Worlds placement: 2nd - 8th

5. Weaver/Poje (CAN)
Average score: 180.89
SP 72.53 (TES 36.50 PCS 36.03/8.98/8.84/9.00/9.10/9.11)
FP 108.36 (TES 54.15 PCS 54.21/8.98/8.82/9.11/9.09/9.17)
Range of scores: 171.29 - 191.00
Worlds placement: 2nd - 9th

6. Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)
Average score: 177.71
SP 71.76 (TES 36.68 PCS 35.08/8.72/8.60/8.92/8.79/8.82)
FP 106.15 (TES 53.21 PCS 52.94/8.78/8.64/8.90/8.88/8.91)
Range of scores: 169.79 - 185.74
Worlds placement: 2nd - 10th

Top 10 contenders:

7. Guignard/Fabbri (ITA) 4th - out of top 10
8. Gilles/Poirier (CAN) 4th - out of top 10
9. Hawayek/Baker (USA) 5th - out of top 10
10. Zagorski/Guerreiro (RUS) 6th - out of top 10
11. Kaliszek/Spodiriev (POL) 7th - out of top 10
12. Souicisse/Firus (CAN) 7th - out of top 10
13. Muramoto/Reed (JPN) 7th - out of top 10

 

[Anyasnake]

Interesting, the average TES for S/B is (sliiightly) above WeaPo's. Those twizzles really put them down

If you don't count P/C 191.88 score (Finlandia Trophy, fall on the Dist), they have all their scores above 200

C/L and C/B are so close, for H/D it will depend on their performances this week, but they can manage to get a much bigger score and create a gap.

But if there is a competition when you can inflate somebody's score, it's here, and go with Guignard/Fabbri. They deserve much higher.