State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17

[moriel]

I'm not rehashing anything. This isn't about Mirai at all. It's about sending the pewter medalist to the Olympics and the controversy it caused. Ashley performed well in my eyes. I completely agree with the logic of the decision because Ashley's prior results indicated she'd be a better choice. However, that's not what I'm discussing at all.

What I'm saying if I was a company that sponsored the USOC and the USFS I would urge them not to make a controversial decision like this again. Polina was the silver medalist, there was no controversy in sending her to the Olympics. In the eyes of the world she earned her place. Putting Ashley on the team created a firestorm of criticism, which hurt a lot of parties during a critical time. They do not want that again.

This is not about Ashley but the national controversy that followed the decision. I read half of USFS cash come from corporate sponsors. The last thing they wanted during the Olympics was to defend their brand, when all they wanted was increased market interest.

Once again a top ten finish doesn't matter to the public. All that matters to a voracious american public is that they didn't win and they didn't almost win. With Polina, it means she' was invisible. With Ashley, it led to a mob of haters that would demand she retire. She mentioned them after she won nationals in 2015, and was motivated to fight and prove them wrong. But Gracie became the brand new it girl in skating with her 4th place finish. So placement at the games had a major effect on how they were perceived and treated post games.

I kind of really doubt anybody except fans cared, no?
Also, Ashley is still the girl who medaled in Boston, and i´m sure many people remember that.

 

[andromache]

I kind of really doubt anybody except fans cared, no?
Also, Ashley is still the girl who medaled in Boston, and i´m sure many people remember that.

Agree. I think frida80 is overestimating the capacity of the public's memory for US Nationals and the Olympic team. There were a few headlines at the time, but by the time the Olympics rolled around, they'd already moved on to Ashley's funny K&C face.

 

[moriel]

Agree. I think frida80 is overestimating the capacity of the public's memory for US Nationals and the Olympic team. There were a few headlines at the time, but by the time the Olympics rolled around, they'd already moved on to Ashley's funny K&C face.

Yeah.
Although i do expect public to remember Ashley as one who got a world medal at home, i suppose that recieved reasonable attention.
So imho, if Ashley is picked over someone again, only fans will rant, because for everybody else her credentials are kinda solid enough. I mean, if i´m not a fan, "the only US lady who got a world medal in last 10 years" would totally shut me up and make me agree with the choice, despite her performance at nationals. It totally sounds like a great choice for olympic games.

 

[Moxiejan]

What I'm saying if I was a company that sponsored the USOC and the USFS I would urge them not to make a controversial decision like this again. Polina was the silver medalist, there was no controversy in sending her to the Olympics. In the eyes of the world she earned her place. Putting Ashley on the team created a firestorm of criticism, which hurt a lot of parties during a critical time. They do not want that again.

If I was a company that sponsored the USOC and USFS, I would urge them to send the best possible team and to ignore criticism from people who care about the sport only every four years. As for Polina, she was a marketing unknown; it would not have been hugely controversial to send her to Junior Worlds and make her the 1st alternate on an Olympic team that included Mirai.

This is not about Ashley but the national controversy that followed the decision. I read half of USFS cash come from corporate sponsors. The last thing they wanted during the Olympics was to defend their brand, when all they wanted was increased market interest.

If anything, the Ashley "controversy" was a storyline that created buzz and was good for marketing.

Once again a top ten finish doesn't matter to the public. All that matters to a voracious american public is that they didn't win and they didn't almost win. With Polina, it means she' was invisible. With Ashley, it led to a mob of haters that would demand she retire. She mentioned them after she won nationals in 2015, and was motivated to fight and prove them wrong. But Gracie became the brand new it girl in skating with her 4th place finish. So placement at the games had a major effect on how they were perceived and treated post games.

The "mob of haters" were largely the folks who have been saying "Mirai wuz robbed" since the year after Vancouver.

As for the "major effect on how they were perceived and treated post games": It is now 2017. In the most recent ISU standings, Ashley is once again the top-ranked U.S. lady, "it girl" Gracie is doing singles in SOI shows, Mirai is still inconsistent internationally and Polina is, yes, invisible. At this point in time, Ashley has to be considered a favorite for the 2018 team. Yes, the 2017 GP season will say at least as much as 2018 Nationals.

 

[Ice Dance]

I think the top four U.S. ladies from this season are all pretty comparable as far as their current records. My gut says that you will have to medal at the GPF this coming year (as Ashley did in 2014) to be placed on the team via committee above any of these athletes who medal at Nationals. A GP win could be helpful, but not all GP fields are the same so there is less status there, IMO. (And a JGPF medal would be huge for any U.S. junior lady. No reason to expect one; but if it happened for a senior age-eligible athlete, the name would certainly be in the mix).

The two wildcards--Polina & Gracie--are going to get plenty of respect if they come on with a solid GP season as well. So those six ladies, I think, have enough going for them at this point to be able to earn their way onto this team either via nationals or this season's body of work.

For a less credentialed athlete like Tessa Hong or Caroline Zhang, you might need to earn some. A JGPF berth, a super high finish at Nationals, even a win on the Challenger series would help. The rules are apparently not the same as they were back in 2014 or even 2015 when criteria had to come from very specific competitions. If Cain & LeDuc can be placed over Castelli & Tran based on only Challenger/senior B results, then I assume any results can be considered this time around.

I think Ashley being placed over Mirai again would be a PR nightmare. But I don't think the selection committee will let that deter them. I hope, however, that the fact that Mirai brought home the only hardware in a major international this season will hold her in good stead if she does the job at Nationals. Likewise for any of those six athletes I mentioned.

Note: A JGPF berth, as Polina had in 2014, is hard-earned in the ladies event. Mai Mihara went last year and we probably all overlooked her heading into this season. But vroom. Top 5 in the World and a 4CC win this season. Medvedeva also came right up out of juniors and won everything. If you can challenge those top junior ladies, you have the jumps to challenge the seniors.

 

[concorde]

I would also not rule out Starr Andrews. She appears to be on an upwards tangent right now. If USFS decided to go with 2 "current" and 1 "future " Olympic spots (which I think they did in 2014), my money is on Starr for the "future" spot.

 

[frida80]

I think the top four U.S. ladies from this season are all pretty comparable as far as their current records. My gut says that you will have to medal at the GPF this coming year (as Ashley did in 2014) to be placed on the team via committee above any of these athletes who medal at Nationals. A GP win could be helpful, but not all GP fields are the same so there is less status there, IMO. (And a JGPF medal would be huge for any U.S. junior lady. No reason to expect one; but if it happened for a senior age-eligible athlete, the name would certainly be in the mix).

The two wildcards--Polina & Gracie--are going to get plenty of respect if they come on with a solid GP season as well. So those six ladies, I think, have enough going for them at this point to be able to earn their way onto this team either via nationals or this season's body of work.

For a less credentialed athlete like Tessa Hong or Caroline Zhang, you might need to earn some. A JGPF berth, a super high finish at Nationals, even a win on the Challenger series would help. The rules are apparently not the same as they were back in 2014 or even 2015 when criteria had to come from very specific competitions. If Cain & LeDuc can be placed over Castelli & Tran based on only Challenger/senior B results, then I assume any results can be considered this time around.

I think Ashley being placed over Mirai again would be a PR nightmare. But I don't think the selection committee will let that deter them. I hope, however, that the fact that Mirai brought home the only hardware in a major international this season will hold her in good stead if she does the job at Nationals. Likewise for any of those six athletes I mentioned.

Note: A JGPF berth, as Polina had in 2014, is hard-earned in the ladies event. Mai Mihara went last year and we probably all overlooked her heading into this season. But vroom. Top 5 in the World and a 4CC win this season. Medvedeva also came right up out of juniors and won everything. If you can challenge those top junior ladies, you have the jumps to challenge the seniors.

You're probably right about who may be chosen. I think with Gracie, she'll need a great GP season. If she has a crummy one like this year and outperforms at nationals, that may cause a selection crisis. I honestly think they will take into account her former world placements they may give her the benefit of the doubt.


Polina is A wild card because she underperforms at the GP but does much better at nationals. She nearly won in 2016. I'm keeping a close eye on her jumps, as that will tell the story for the season.

Tessa will get hyped because she has Frank as a coach. She has no national or international medals at the junior or senior level. She needs to medal at the JGP and go to the JGPF to assuage USFS. If she can defeat Russia/Japan/Korea competitors, she is READY to be a senior internationally.

Wouldn't Caroline be a Cinderella story?! A long shot, though...

 

[mrrice]

I would also not rule out Starr Andrews. She appears to be on an upwards tangent right now. If USFS decided to go with 2 "current" and 1 "future " Olympic spots (which I think they did in 2014), my money is on Starr for the "future" spot.

A skater like Starr is exactly the type of skater I was thinking of when it comes to someone who would be more exciting for the audience to see than an out of form Gracie Gold. Is Starr doing shows this summer?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think the top four U.S. ladies from this season are all pretty comparable as far as their current records. My gut says that you will have to medal at the GPF this coming year (as Ashley did in 2014) to be placed on the team via committee above any of these athletes who medal at Nationals.

A GPF appearance may do it, but it also depend on the depth of the field. Ashley getting selected for the team was as much about the strength of her record as it was the weakness of the others'. The team event adds an extra dimension, as we also need at least one woman who can reliably produce a clean short and/or long program. Currently, we do not have that woman.

 

[skatespin]

Wouldn't Caroline be a Cinderella story?! A long shot, though...

One can only dream.... I found her to be impressive this season in that she was so consistent and does 3Loop-3Loop. This is different from the other US ladies. I also liked her LP this year. Hopefully she can build on all this and fix her speed/step sequences.

 

[concorde]

A skater like Starr is exactly the type of skater I was thinking of when it comes to someone who would be more exciting for the audience to see than an out of form Gracie Gold. Is Starr doing shows this summer?

No idea. But Sun Valley does have a TBD slot still showing.

 

[el henry]

Starr skated in the Showtime on Ice show (also starring Max Aaron) in late April in Colorado; poster reviews and photos are in Max's Fanfest.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I would also not rule out Starr Andrews. She appears to be on an upwards tangent right now. If USFS decided to go with 2 "current" and 1 "future " Olympic spots (which I think they did in 2014), my money is on Starr for the "future" spot.

I agree we should not rule her out. She is pretty good to fill the "future" roll much like Polina did last time. Tessa Hong is a maybe for that roll. Some may say Karen, but I think her ship has arrived so to speak - her time is now for lack of a better way to put it. I think Starr might have the most/best momentum though, if she can hit the ground running and have a great fall season, I think her name will be in the mix come nationals especially as a "future big name" type way.

Right now I think Mirai might have the best chance for the Olympics. It would make a great story and send a great message to have her on the team. With their whole "get up" campaign, I think Mirai sticking it out for another four years is a great fit for that. And like it or not, the USA seems to do better with older ladies, so Mirai going could be good for the sport in the USA to send the message to maybe not give up so young. Really sending Mirai is a great way to scream on the message "This is why you don't ever give up!"

I also would not rule out Caroline Zhang... at all. If Mirai has a bad showing, Caroline could fill this role very well as well. She is less well known perhaps, but I think in the right hands her story could sell really well and still promote the don't give up mentality.

Gracie... well sadly heartbreak often sells well. I hate this aspect of things, but USFSA can stand to gain from marketing Gracie regardless of if she succeeds or fails. If she comes back roaring to go, great for USFSA, if she is a trainwreck, well USFSA can still make use of that - they stand to win in both scenarios. Either way makes a shall we say clickable story. I feel like regardless of the state she is in USFSA will use her up and spit her out if need be. Frankly I would rather her not be hyped if she is not in form. Id love to see an in form Gracie, but she needs to bring her jumps and not just her name.

I think Ashley will go and not have an issue with getting at least the bronze at Nationals. I also think it is strange that her "body of work" last quad with no world medal seems to be more impressive than her current "body of work" that has a world silver medal. Honestly a large part of me feels like if her body was good enough last time, it should be enough this time as on paper it is more than she had before. But who knows. I wish they had used last time as a more of a way to promote the grand prix series and GPF to the general public as important events.

 

[frida80]

I agree we should not rule her out. She is pretty good to fill the "future" roll much like Polina did last time. Tessa Hong is a maybe for that roll. Some may say Karen, but I think her ship has arrived so to speak - her time is now for lack of a better way to put it. I think Starr might have the most/best momentum though, if she can hit the ground running and have a great fall season, I think her name will be in the mix come nationals especially as a "future big name" type way.

Right now I think Mirai might have the best chance for the Olympics. It would make a great story and send a great message to have her on the team. With their whole "get up" campaign, I think Mirai sticking it out for another four years is a great fit for that. And like it or not, the USA seems to do better with older ladies, so Mirai going could be good for the sport in the USA to send the message to maybe not give up so young. Really sending Mirai is a great way to scream on the message "This is why you don't ever give up!"

I also would not rule out Caroline Zhang... at all. If Mirai has a bad showing, Caroline could fill this role very well as well. She is less well known perhaps, but I think in the right hands her story could sell really well and still promote the don't give up mentality.

Gracie... well sadly heartbreak often sells well. I hate this aspect of things, but USFSA can stand to gain from marketing Gracie regardless of if she succeeds or fails. If she comes back roaring to go, great for USFSA, if she is a trainwreck, well USFSA can still make use of that - they stand to win in both scenarios. Either way makes a shall we say clickable story. I feel like regardless of the state she is in USFSA will use her up and spit her out if need be. Frankly I would rather her not be hyped if she is not in form. Id love to see an in form Gracie, but she needs to bring her jumps and not just her name.

I think Ashley will go and not have an issue with getting at least the bronze at Nationals. I also think it is strange that her "body of work" last quad with no world medal seems to be more impressive than her current "body of work" that has a world silver medal. Honestly a large part of me feels like if her body was good enough last time, it should be enough this time as on paper it is more than she had before. But who knows. I wish they had used last time as a more of a way to promote the grand prix series and GPF to the general public as important events.

I don't think there is any wrong choices terms of marketing any of these ladies. Even Mariah has that Cinderella essence to her story. But what would really sell would be Gracie's comeback story, Mirai's turn around, and either Caroline/Polina's overcoming injury story. If Mirai can get her 3A in competition, the ads will sell themselves.

....

Why do I suddenly feel bad for Tonya?

 

[Ice Dance]

Vivian Le is sixteen now also. I hope she will come back healthy this season. (I like Tessa & Starr, but I really love Vivian).

I have zero expectations for a current U.S. junior lady to make this year's Olympic team.

Polina won two JGPs, placed 4th at the JGPF (bested Medvedeva in the FS), and placed 2nd at the 2014 U.S. Nationals. That's a pretty high bar. I don't think her making the team had anything to do with being a future star. I think it had to do with her being second at Nationals, meeting the then-prescribed criteria by making the JGPF, and having a triple lutz triple combo during a season in which that combination was king.

This year anyone who makes it will also have to have a senior technical minimum score. Not as high for the Olympics as for Worlds, but still a senior score. (Is USFSA even going to send all these young ladies out into senior events, I wonder? USFSA did a pretty good job sending all of the young men--Zhou, Torgashev, Hiwatashi--out last year. But these girls don't even have junior national titles. Not Tessa, not Starr, not Vivian).

I really think this conversation is a lot more relevant for the men's & dance threads where we have A. senior athletes with current international scores & placements that imply they can medal at an Olympic games and B. three junior world champions and another JGPF qualifier coming up and/or likely to compete at Senior Nationals this season.

But, hey, if the ladies would like to bring home those kind of credentials next season, I'm sure we would all be happy.

 

[frida80]

Vivian Le is sixteen now also. I hope she will come back healthy this season. (I like Tessa & Starr, but I really love Vivian).

I have zero expectations for a current U.S. junior lady to make this year's Olympic team.

Polina won two JGPs, placed 4th at the JGPF (bested Medvedeva in the FS), and placed 2nd at the 2014 U.S. Nationals. That's a pretty high bar. I don't think her making the team had anything to do with being a future star. I think it had to do with her being second at Nationals, meeting the then-prescribed criteria by making the JGPF, and having a triple lutz triple combo during a season in which that combination was king.

This year anyone who makes it will also have to have a senior technical minimum score. Not as high for the Olympics as for Worlds, but still a senior score. (Is USFSA even going to send all these young ladies out into senior events, I wonder? USFSA did a pretty good job sending all of the young men--Zhou, Torgashev, Hiwatashi--out last year. But these girls don't even have junior national titles. Not Tessa, not Starr, not Vivian).

I really think this conversation is a lot more relevant for the men's & dance threads where we have A. senior athletes with current international scores & placements that imply they can medal at an Olympic games and B. three junior world champions and another JGPF qualifier coming up and/or likely to compete at Senior Nationals this season.

But, hey, if the ladies would like to bring home those kind of credentials next season, I'm sure we would all be happy.

I think USFS will send Tessa and Vivian to a Challengers so they can get min for 4CC. Frank is gunning for another Olympics so he'll push hard for her to get a senior comp. but I think Tessa will most likely be on the JGP. Vivian has a few bronze medals at the JGP, so she may opt for a few challenger comps with the possibility of going to SA. They both have big name coaches behind them, so it will be interesting to see what happens next year.

 

[sarama]

I hope Vivian has an entirely senior season. US skaters waste too much time in juniors IMHO. I have no idea what her current state is, but she IS a senior skater in age and abilities, so she deserves to compete with her peers

 

[Bluediamonds09]

A skater like Starr is exactly the type of skater I was thinking of when it comes to someone who would be more exciting for the audience to see than an out of form Gracie Gold. Is Starr doing shows this summer?

Hey, you're right! A skater like Starr Andrews is exactly what US skating needs. We need a "figure skating misty Copeland" tbh. No one gave ballet stars any media attention until misty came along breaking boundaries and getting tv commercials, invitations to guest judge on dance shows, and numerous magazine covers. IMO, Starr inst quite polished for the big time just yet, and I doubt the federation will give her any special treatment or place her on the Olympic team, but give her time and I think we might have a Starr

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Polina's Instagram story today was of her shooting footage for the Olympic channel and included a triple jump. I'd say it's a fair bet that she is going to make a run next year :hap85:

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I hope Ashley can channel that fighting spirit she has shown in the past because if Polina comes back, it's going to be a packed field. I would love to see Ashley earn a spot because she has done so much the last 5 seasons to help the US maintain three spots for worlds.