2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[leafygreens]

Does the members-only site also show the selection procedures for 2018 Worlds?

If so, would you mind telling us whether/how the criteria for 2018 OWG differ from the criteria for 2018 Worlds?[/INDENT]

They left last year's WC criteria up instead of uploading a new set. It appears to be the same as Olympic criteria, but they have last year's dates.

Tier 1
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
- 2016 ISU Grand Prix Final
- 2016 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
Tier 2
- 2016 Grand Prix Series Competitions
- 2016 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
Tier 3
- 2016 Challenger Series Events and other senior international competitions
- 2016 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
- 2016 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
- 2016 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final

My main concern is how are they weighting each Tier? I do not see this in the document. It seems like the criteria is published, but not the method it will be calculated.

 

[ice coverage]

They left last year's WC criteria up instead of uploading a new set. It appears to be the same as Olympic criteria, but they have last year's dates. ...

Thanks for all the helpful information .

... My main concern is how are they weighting each Tier? I do not see this in the document. It seems like the criteria is published, but not the method it will be calculated.

My two cents are that I think USFS purposely avoids committing to how the tiers are weighted.
(And I am OK with that. YMMV.)
One wonders whether it is within the realm of possibility that even results from the same series (Rostelecom vs. Skate Canada vs. Skate America, etc.) are not weighted 100.00% identically?? -- for one reason or another. I wonder also re U.S. Classic vs. Lombardia vs. Finlandia, etc.

Not to mention that your original post mentions that factors such as SBs, trending, and consistency also will be taken into consideration ....

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

My two cents are that I think USFS purposely avoids committing to how the tiers are weighted.
(And I am OK with that. YMMV.)

I'm expecting this weighting:

Tier 1
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: 100%

 

[leafygreens]

My two cents are that I think USFS purposely avoids committing to how the tiers are weighted.
(And I am OK with that. YMMV.)
One wonders whether it is within the realm of possibility that even results from the same series (Rostelecom vs. Skate Canada vs. Skate America, etc.) are not weighted 100.00% identically?? -- for one reason or another. I wonder also re U.S. Classic vs. Lombardia vs. Finlandia, etc.

Not to mention that your original post mentions that factors such as SBs, trending, and consistency also will be taken into consideration ....

I agree that they avoid committing to the weights but I don't agree that it's ok. My gut feeling is that the criteria are not really used. Going to hold my tongue for now. I'm curious if anyone else has any other info about this.

 

[sheetz]

I think the Olympic team selection process will be virtually the same as it was in the past, but this document provides something tangible that they can use in their defense should another Ashley/Mirai situation arise.

 

[leafygreens]

I think the Olympic team selection process will be virtually the same as it was in the past, but this document provides something tangible that they can use in their defense should another Ashley/Mirai situation arise.

Yes, and without the calculations made public, the criteria can be used to justify almost any scenario.

I'm expecting this weighting:

Tier 1
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: 100%

That depends on who finishes where. :-D

 

[brightphoton]

I'm expecting this weighting:

Tier 1
- 2017 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: 100%

So much this. I'm getting tired of choosing skaters with tiers this, tiers that, tiers.

They're just covering their butts so they can make a Marta and Bela Kayoloi style "pick whoever we want in this backroom deal" decision.

 

[andromache]

So much this. I'm getting tired of choosing skaters with tiers this, tiers that, tiers.

They're just covering their butts so they can make a Marta and Bela Kayoloi style "pick whoever we want in this backroom deal" decision.

I don't think it's fair to characterize anything as a backroom deal when USFS just wants to send the skaters most likely to succeed at the Olympics/Worlds. Determining WHO is most likely to succeed depends on a number of factors - the tiers try to weigh those factors in a logical way, but there's no way to actually quantify it.

IMO, there's nothing wrong with USFS covering their butt in the event that a skater with significantly more international success than another has a freak Nationals. Especially the Grand Prix Series and GPF, since those competitions are the most reliable indicators of how well someone is going to do up against the rest of the best in the world.

I think last season proved that USFS have no intention of rewarding a "favorite" with team placement unless they've proven their ability either on the GP series or at Nationals - otherwise we would've seen Gracie Gold on last year's world team.

 

[frida80]

So much this. I'm getting tired of choosing skaters with tiers this, tiers that, tiers.

They're just covering their butts so they can make a Marta and Bela Kayoloi style "pick whoever we want in this backroom deal" decision.

Basically. This isn’t clear cut like the GP series or the Challenger series. It list a lot of tiers, but no weighting so we can actually see what matters more and exactly where people stand. I know what they say about 2014, but I think leaving Mirai off the team has less to do with the tier system and more about other things.

1. She didn’t have a coach
2. She placed low in the last two nationals.
3. She only had a triple double, while Ashley, Gracie and Polina all had triple triples.

For me, I saw the team they sent as one that showed the future potential of US figure skating. Ladies with high technical content that would be more competitive than in the past. Mirai didn’t fit into that vision. Kinda ironic now that she’s gotten a 3A. Actually, it’s not ironic at all. She got the 3A because she was left off the team. She let her own disappoint drive her into improving herself. Fixing her tecgnique, landing her 3F+3T, including her 3S and finally becoming the 2nd US lady to land a fully rotated 3A in international competition.

What’s frustrating about this, this all happened not as an intention of USFS but a byproduct of their actions. But they can’t seem to do it intentionally. Instead they manage to break a talented skater down in the same amount of time. :gaah:

Let me leave before I get depressed about Gracie again.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think the Olympic team selection process will be virtually the same as it was in the past, but this document provides something tangible that they can use in their defense should another Ashley/Mirai situation arise.

There is no basis to put Mirai on the team if she finishes off the podium. She has a good Tier II result (4CC) but whoever finishes ahead of her at Nationals will have a better Tier I result. Mirai also has other Tier II GP results (4th and 9th) that probably neither hurt her nor help her.

Unless Ashley does something special at Skate America and the GPF, there is no basis to put her on the team without a Nationals medal, either. There's also the question of whether the USFSA would give her a second Olympic berth despite her never having earned the spot at Nationals, assuming she finishes off the podium.

Basically, we have a bunch of women who have very similar results. That is a recipe for an exciting Nationals, where the podium finishers should be the team sent.

 

[sheetz]

Maybe not Ashley vs Mirai, specifically. But there are other skaters with little international experience like Bradie who could conceivably sneak onto the podium. What if Bradie finishes 3rd and Ashley, Karen, or Mirai finish 4th?

 

[Moxiejan]

Maybe not Ashley vs Mirai, specifically. But there are other skaters with little international experience like Bradie who could conceivably sneak onto the podium. What if Bradie finishes 3rd and Ashley, Karen, or Mirai finish 4th?

It largely would depend on how Bradie, Ashley and Karen did against each other at Skate America; same tech panel & judges, for a good comparison. Really, that event is shaping up as a mini showdown for the U.S. team.

We also can't forget Courtney, who has as many GP points (9) from one event as Mirai has from 2. A strong performance at Warsaw this weekend would push her right into the mix.

I think we'll get an indication of the USFS thinking by which ladies are sent to Golden Spin. Especially if no U.S.ladies make the GPF.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Maybe not Ashley vs Mirai, specifically. But there are other skaters with little international experience like Bradie who could conceivably sneak onto the podium. What if Bradie finishes 3rd and Ashley, Karen, or Mirai finish 4th?

I think the USFSA should go with Bradie. We haven't seen much of Ashley this season, but anyone else left home will have had more bad outings this season than just Nationals. No one who consistently delivers will be left home because we don't have any skaters who consistently deliver.

 

[brightphoton]

No one who consistently delivers will be left home because we don't have any skaters who consistently deliver.

 

[mrrice]

I think the USFSA should go with Bradie. We haven't seen much of Ashley this season, but anyone else left home will have had more bad outings this season than just Nationals. No one who consistently delivers will be left home because we don't have any skaters who consistently deliver.

I really like Bradie and I also like Angela Wang who is continually left off of prediction lists. When you add Courtney Hicks to the mix I think the race for the podium could be very tight. Unlike our Men who are, IMO, deep as the ocean. Our ladies are not in the same boat. I don't love her programs but, I still think Karen Chen is the skater to beat. If I were on the committee, I'd say whoever delivers at Nationals is on the team...Period!

Speaking of that. Is Gracie Gold Retired? She and her team have been radio silent for months.

 

[Miss Ice]

I would go with Karen over Bradie anyday. And I see USFSA doing the same, unless Karen really bombs at SA and/or Nationals.

 

[klutzy]

The thing is that despite the controversy, the USFSA made the right choice in 2014--Gracie, Ashley and Polina all performed well under pressure. Would Mirai really have done better than Polina or Ashley, both of whom managed top 10 finishes?

Also, one of the reasons Ladies FS is in such a mess is because we are short two top skaters--Gracie had the talent and technique to challenge anyone and Polina was solid before her injury. With the exception of Ashley, we're looking at skaters who weren't on top before for a reason. If Gracie and Polina were well, would Karen Chen have beaten either of them last year? Maybe Polina. Or maybe not.

Which is my way of saying that unless Ashley makes it to the GP, Nationals should be used as the Olympic trials, let the chips fall where they may. No one's so outstanding on the international circuit this season that they deserve special consideration.

And why wasn't there some attempt by the USFSA to make sure that Karen Chen had a program that was a go well before the Fall--she got fourth at Worlds last year--tremendous potential, really--but you can't sub in your own choreography two weeks before a GP assignment and expect to nail it. That's just amateur hour/magical thinking. I keep thinking how Davis/White knew years ahead of time that they would use Scheherezade for their Olympic year. *That's* how to create a winning program.

 

[chuckm]

Gracie never said she was retired. She said early in September she was taking time off from competition to get help for her problems (depression, eating disorder). That was less than 3 months ago and those are complex problems that aren't quickly resolved.

 

[mrrice]

Gracie never said she was retired. She said early in September she was taking time off from competition to get help for her problems (depression, eating disorder). That was less than 3 months ago and those are complex problems that aren't quickly resolved.

That's great. Maybe she could have a spokesperson write an update on how she's doing. I know that what she's dealing with is serious which the reason I keep asking. My feeling and love for Gracie and her skating will not change whether she skates again of not.

 

[frida80]

That's great. Maybe she could have a spokesperson write an update on how she's doing. I know that what she's dealing with is serious which the reason I keep asking. My feeling and love for Gracie and her skating will not change whether she skates again of not.

I prefer not. She should recover privately and at her on pace. She'll inform us how she's doing when she's ready.