Will Nathan Chen become the best skater ever in mens singles?

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

Lamente Ariane said:
I love Gordeeva and Grinkov but if we're talking about base value they've long since been technically surpassed As was Yuna, even at the time.

Yes but nobody is going to say Medvedeva or Zagitova is the best ever over people like Yu Na, Kwan, Katarina Witt, Henie, or the godly Janet Lynn unless one has amazing longevity and has way more artistic and intangible impact that they have said so far. Right now both are just other russians in skating history who nobody will care about or talk about once they retire, probably not even the best Russian ever over Slutskaya yet. And all those others are way further behind technically than the current than Kim is. And nobody had surpassed Yu Na technically when she retired except Asada on her rare good days. Who else then. Dont even mention the total joke that was Sotnikova, breakdowns of her Olympic program were done by many people who showed with proper scoring she would have been like 5th in TES behind Asada, Kim, Kostner, Gold (in the long program) and that was with her best skate ever.

Sui & Han have a shot to be the best ever if they stay healthy, dominate more, and make a bigger impact, but they are a long way from that yet.

theharleyquinn · Jul 24, 2019

rockmypark said:
The problem is Nathan is both capable of higher base value, 6 quads although it is uncertain if he chooses to go back to that or not as he doesnt even need them anymore unless Hanyu goes up to 6 or 7 quads with a quad axel; and with capable of higher and much bigger GOEs. So even at his best Hanyu can not match Chen's best technically. And he no longer has an advantage in artistry.

You're basing this off of one competition where Hanyu had a very empty, below-standard, and underperformed (due to injury during the season) FS. You would need multiple data points to even present an argument that there's no longer an artistry gap.

Lamente Ariane · Jul 24, 2019

rockmypark said:
Yes but nobody is going to say Medvedeva or Zagitova is the best ever over people like Yu Na, Kwan, Katarina Witt, Henie, or the godly Janet Lynn unless one has amazing longevity and has way more artistic and intangible impact that they have said so far. Right now both are just other russians in skating history who nobody will care about or talk about once they retire, probably not even the best Russian ever over Slutskaya yet. And all those others are way further behind technically than the current than Kim is. And nobody had surpassed Yu Na technically when she retired except Asada on her rare good days. Who else then. Dont even mention the total joke that was Sotnikova, breakdowns of her Olympic program were done by many people who showed with proper scoring she would have been like 5th in TES behind Asada, Kim, Kostner, Gold (in the long program) and that was with her best skate ever.

Sui & Han have a shot to be the best ever if they stay healthy, dominate more, and make a bigger impact, but they are a long way from that yet.

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

Lamente Ariane said:

Do you know anyone who calls Medvedeva or Zagitova the best ever now? Non Russians that is, Russians dont count. Even those who dont pick Kim would pick Lynn, Ito, Witt, Henie, or in the odd case Kwan, Yamaguchi, Fleming, Asada, or Hamill. Most (including Russians) wouldnt even pick either as the best Russian yet over Slutskaya yet, although both have the chance if they have longevity. Right now in skating history they are just amongst a large group of very strong and champion Russians who came and went during a strong period for Russian women, part of a pack.

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

theharleyquinn said:
You're basing this off of one competition where Hanyu had a very empty, below-standard, and underperformed (due to injury during the season) FS. You would need multiple data points to even present an argument that there's no longer an artistry gap.

If Chen keeps getting 95+ points in PCS it is impossible to have a big PCS gap given that the max score is 98-100.

Lamente Ariane · Jul 24, 2019

rockmypark said:
Do you know anyone who calls Medvedeva or Zagitova the best ever now?

We recently had a thread where plenty of people were saying it, or at least saying one of them had the potential to be. Not unlike your post about Nathan, actually.

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

Lamente Ariane said:
We recently had a thread where plenty of people were saying it, or at least saying one of them had the potential to be. Not unlike your post about Nathan, actually.

Probably all Russian posters. Zagitova and Medvedeva might be the best ever to some Russians, but probably never will be outside their little world. Their little world where probably even Sotnikova deserved her Olympic Gold (hahahahaha) and Gritschuk & Platov and Berezhnaya & Sikhordlidze, were not overscored and held up teams.

Chen has a good shot of becoming best ever in the real world though, and I am not even a fan really. In fact I am coming to terms that my favorite Hanyu will never be on top again barring a big injury to Chen.

yume · Jul 24, 2019

This is getting more and more interesting :popcorn:

Lamente Ariane · Jul 24, 2019

rockmypark said:
Probably all Russian posters. Zagitova and Medvedeva might be the best ever to some Russians, but probably never will be outside their little world. Their little world where probably even Sotnikova deserved her Olympic Gold (hahahahaha) and Gritschuk & Platov and Berezhnaya & Sikhordlidze, were not overscored and held up teams.

Chen has a good shot of becoming best ever in the real world though, and I am not even a fan really. In fact I am coming to terms that my favorite Hanyu will never be on top again barring a big injury to Chen.

Wait, you're not a fan? :laugh:

Most fans would love to be optimistic enough to predict their favorites would win two Olympics and 6 (consecutive?) Worlds!

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

Lamente Ariane said:
Wait, you're not a fan? Most fans would love to be optimistic enough to predict their favorites would win two Olympics and 6 (consecutive?) Worlds!

I actually do not like Chen although I have come to grudgingly appreciate his talent and improvements. I think he is overscored, but the judges love him. I often am the ultimate in pesstimistic with my favorites so I dont get dissapointed. I rarely go overboard in expectations for someone I actually like, in fact the opposite as a defense mechanism. Chen is not someone I like.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jul 24, 2019

There are a lot of variables as to what happens over the remainder of Nathan's career (and other skaters too obviously). Chen definitely has the potential to continue to dominate but it's not a done deal by any means.

Hanyu is still of course his main challenger, and at his best, he will always be a threat to Chen and vice versa. I would give the edge though to Chen based on technical consistency he's shown, and having harder technical content. I also feel that for Hanyu to include the 4Z back in there will be more of a struggle than Chen to include the 4S back in there. And given Chen has landed it, I would find it logically likelier he would incorporate a 4L if he wanted to than Hanyu incorporating a 4A.

What Hanyu had over Chen is quality of execution but lately, Chen has shown greater security on his quads, and incredible consistency. Hanyu on the other hand has shown vulnerability on his 4S, and even his 3A wasn't as consistent this season as in previous ones.

There are certainly consistent quadsters who are up and coming like Daniel Grassl, Stephen Gogolev and even Conrad Orzel (who's landed all 5 quads in practice), and who knows what we will see from others like Cha and Zhou, who have UR issues but are starting to overcome them. Someone like Shoma though struggling with injuries I wouldn't count out either if he brings back his 4L and adds a 3A+4T.

Uno/Hanyu/Chen all have comparable PCS. I know not everyone agrees that they should (obviously several people are biased) but I'm honestly more a fan of technical output winning the day, and a skater not having a considerable buffer thanks to their PCS (which many judges subjectively use to manipulate results anyways). Now that the PCS is capped, it will come down more to technical output. If one of the youngsters starts doing consistently well and develops their artistry at a rapid rate, they will be a consistent threat. I think someone like Jin is always a technical threat but has kinda seen a cap on his artistry... the same goes for Brown who has achieved artistic clout but is still struggling to gain any technical ground.

There was something about Chen last season that showed incredible confidence and focus. I still can't get over the fact that he absolutely dominated in Worlds in Japan, particularly after Yuzuru skated almost as well a freeskate as he could have. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Chen to continue to win (but, like, not a ton of money, lol :biggrin:

). Chen dominating over the next 1.5 Olympic cycles though is wayyy too early to say. After all, Chen has only been on the senior scene himself the past 3 years and even as a junior nobody would have predicted his technical meteoric rise. Another Chen could show up as quickly as he did, who knows. I'm also not one of those people who's like "if [skater X] is healthy, he'll win"... (like every skater ever) even if Chen stays healthy he is still human and prone to days where he is off and not feeling at his peak - which other skaters can capitalize on.

One final note: the "best skater" is a subjective title that's open to interpretation and varying criteria. Even if Chen wins the next 3 Olympic gold medals, that doesn't necessarily make him the best skater - just the most decorated. He is certainly is arguably the best technician in terms of consistency and the difficulty of content. But there are skaters who have so far had better technique, skating skills, artistry, better spins, etc. that could claim that "best skater ever" status depending on one's personal criteria.

katymay · Jul 24, 2019

I think he is one of the most gifted athletes in the world, period. Didn't he win Junior Worlds by like 60 points? A once in a lifetime athlete. If he fails, it is only because of trying to balance college and skating.

Autumn Leaves · Jul 24, 2019

I am not Russian and Yu Na Kim’s skating makes me yawn, so don‘t generalize. I would pick Lipnitskaya as the greatest, if I have to, although I find these arguments to be useless. Let’s agree that more than one skater earned a place in history. Actually, it might be exactly the fanatism of Yu Na Kim‘s fans and their constant urge to prove how she is the best ever, that made me less fond of her.

sailormoon · Jul 24, 2019

Nathan Chen is currently a dominant skater in men's singles skating as he won the world championships two in a row. I think no other skaters can challenge him for the next few seasons. Hanyu and Uno do not have as many quads as Chen has and the current scoring system is advantageous to Chen.

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

Autumn Leaves said:
I am not Russian and Yu Na Kim’s skating makes me yawn, so don‘t generalize. I would pick Lipnitskaya as the greatest, if I have to, although I find these arguments to be useless. Let’s agree that more than one skater earned a place in history. Actually, it might be exactly the fanatism of Yu Na Kim‘s fans and their constant urge to prove how she is the best ever, that made me less fond of her.

I didnt say all non Russians would pick Yu Na, and btw I am not a big Yu Na Kim fan, Asada is by far my favorite of that era. I did say Yu Na Kim is the best ever since the fact is she seems to be the consensus best ever pick, I hear more people call her that than anyone else, but that is another topic. I said no non Russians would pick Medvedeva or Zagitova, which is pretty much true. To non Russians they are pretty much just another in a pack of Russians, not even the best russian ever over Slutskaya who trumps both for longevity and being the first famous Russian back at the time they had mediocre coaching and no prioritizing for ladies rather than an Eteri machine running things which any person with decent talent and a good work ethic can become a 2-3 year champion with the advantage of.

yume · Jul 24, 2019

Chen is mainly consistent in 2nd part of the season. Last season his GPs and GPF performances were not that great. He won thanks to higher potential scoring and main contenders like Uno doing worse than him.
I would say that he peaks when it matters the most and start to build his momentum at nats. And his quads becomes incredibly consistent from then.
Hanyu lacks this consistency. Understably. That's two seasons in a row that he's injured.
In a fair world, Hanyu wins in TES against Chen with 4 or even 5 quads. Because everything has better quality. Everything. He has to do twice the work that Chen does on jumps to get slighly better GOES. Usually, he has transitions in and out, basically doesn't telegraph, has more height and distance, more flow, no pre-rotation on some jumps.
But even himself knows that he has to add another quad, just to be sure. Because judges' scoring is out of hand.

Surprises are possible, but a clean Hanyu vs a clean Chen, no discussion. Hanyu wins.

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
There are a lot of variables as to what happens over the remainder of Nathan's career (and other skaters too obviously). Chen definitely has the potential to continue to dominate but it's not a done deal by any means.

Hanyu is still of course his main challenger, and at his best, he will always be a threat to Chen and vice versa. I would give the edge though to Chen based on technical consistency he's shown, and having harder technical content. I also feel that for Hanyu to include the 4Z back in there will be more of a struggle than Chen to include the 4S back in there. And given Chen has landed it, I would find it logically likelier he would incorporate a 4L if he wanted to than Hanyu incorporating a 4A.

What Hanyu had over Chen is quality of execution but lately, Chen has shown greater security on his quads, and incredible consistency. Hanyu on the other hand has shown vulnerability on his 4S, and even his 3A wasn't as consistent this season as in previous ones.

There are certainly consistent quadsters who are up and coming like Daniel Grassl, Stephen Gogolev and even Conrad Orzel (who's landed all 5 quads in practice), and who knows what we will see from others like Cha and Zhou, who have UR issues but are starting to overcome them. Someone like Shoma though struggling with injuries I wouldn't count out either if he brings back his 4L and adds a 3A+4T.

Uno/Hanyu/Chen all have comparable PCS. I know not everyone agrees that they should (obviously several people are biased) but I'm honestly more a fan of technical output winning the day, and a skater not having a considerable buffer thanks to their PCS (which many judges subjectively use to manipulate results anyways). Now that the PCS is capped, it will come down more to technical output. If one of the youngsters starts doing consistently well and develops their artistry at a rapid rate, they will be a consistent threat. I think someone like Jin is always a technical threat but has kinda seen a cap on his artistry... the same goes for Brown who has achieved artistic clout but is still struggling to gain any technical ground.

There was something about Chen last season that showed incredible confidence and focus. I still can't get over the fact that he absolutely dominated in Worlds in Japan, particularly after Yuzuru skated almost as well a freeskate as he could have. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Chen to continue to win (but, like, not a ton of money, lol ). Chen dominating over the next 1.5 Olympic cycles though is wayyy too early to say. After all, Chen has only been on the senior scene himself the past 3 years and even as a junior nobody would have predicted his technical meteoric rise. Another Chen could show up as quickly as he did, who knows. I'm also not one of those people who's like "if [skater X] is healthy, he'll win"... (like every skater ever) even if Chen stays healthy he is still human and prone to days where he is off and not feeling at his peak - which other skaters can capitalize on.

One final note: the "best skater" is a subjective title that's open to interpretation and varying criteria. Even if Chen wins the next 3 Olympic gold medals, that doesn't necessarily make him the best skater - just the most decorated. He is certainly is arguably the best technician in terms of consistency and the difficulty of content. But there are skaters who have so far had better technique, skating skills, artistry, better spins, etc. that could claim that "best skater ever" status depending on one's personal criteria.

Yes that is a good assessment. Bottom line is for the time being Chen is the one to beat by far, and Hanyu and the others have a huge challenge to even compete with him the next 3 years, let alone ever beat him.

Ulrica · Jul 24, 2019

This is a joke, right?

rockmypark · Jul 24, 2019

sailormoon said:
Nathan Chen is currently a dominant skater in men's singles skating as he won the world championships two in a row. I think no other skaters can challenge him for the next few seasons. Hanyu and Uno do not have as many quads as Chen has and the current scoring system is advantageous to Chen.

Yeah Hanyu or Uno will need to do 6 or 7 quads and skate perfectly and have Chen stay at only doing 4 or 5 and make mistakes on top of that if they have any hope to win, especialy Uno.

Lambari · Jul 24, 2019

rockmypark said:
Yeah Hanyu or Uno will need to do 6 or 7 quads and skate perfectly and have Chen stay at only doing 4 or 5 and make mistakes on top of that if they have any hope to win, especialy Uno.

That's a really particular way to assess their chances... To say the least.

All they have to do is to skate clean. The score gap isn't nearly as big as you're making it out to be. Who will come out on top if all of them skate clean depends on our wishful thinking because the chances of it happening is nearly zero. It's men's discipline.

Will Nathan Chen become the best skater ever in mens singles?

rockmypark

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Lamente Ariane

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