4 World Champs odds of Oly Gold?

[Nika09]

1. Medvedeva 95%. Not because she's genius in skating and totally unbeatable. The main reason for that - she's hell of consistent and doesn't make mistakes at all. And if she won't do any major mistakes I think judges automatically will give her huge GOEs and PCS regardless of her and another participants programs. 5% for Osmond, Gaby and Mihara. For now so many doubts about Zagitova.
2. Sui/Han 60%. They need charming and clean programs for that, just like BluesForKlook.
3. Hanyu and whole men's discipline is totally unpredictable for me.
Just one thing to know: them all want this title so bad and will do everything to get it. Imagine this Worlds and doubled-tripled it. I don't think Javi or Patrick really wanted 3x 4x World title, or Nathan who's just 17 y/o. But now it all will be about Olymic gold. And judges won't be kind to Yuzuru, they won't let him get second gold with ease. So it's gonna be real bloodbath.

 

[MaiKatze]

If Evgenia wins, with a similar/same program again, I hope she'll retire. Or some kind of upsets happens. Just so that this sport doesn't become THAT boring.

 

[LadyMagnolia]

Sui/Han: 40%, if that 3s becomes consistent then 70%
Hanyu: 30%, i think gold should be among shoma/hanyu/nathan/Javi, patrick/boyang could be on podium.
VM:80%, they've been pretty solid compare to rest. I don't see Shibs moving up so quickly
Med:85%, her competition will most likely be from her own country.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Hanyu: 30%, i think gold should be among shoma/hanyu/nathan/Javi, patrick/boyang could be on podium.

I agree with your contenders, but since I think Hanyu is the most likely of that group to win, I'd have him higher than 30%. I don't think any of the top men are completely confident with the jumps they will be attempting, so it's going to come down to who can rack up the most points with clean quads and 3As.

 

[Franza]

I normally only read on here, because I know next to nothing about figure skating, but I need to get this off my mind.

I'm at home in the world of gymnastics, always have been, always will be, but I love watching Skating. Love the effortlessness and artistry of movement, especially in ID. It's something you rarely get to see in gymnastics anymore these days, where there is a trend of packing as many super difficult moves as possible in 1:30 only filling the spaces in between with obligatory pose to pose "dance".

For a long time I used to only watch the programms and like or dislike them regardless of their scoring or placement.
Only recently I've read a bit here and there about how the scoring works, who is considered the top of their discipline and why and I almost wish I hadn't. Of course I don't know how much of it is only talk and what is actually going on in those judging pannels. But beeing a judge myself in a sport with a history of fighting for objectivity in scoring, it is hard for me to see how much politics is willingly taken into consideration in discussions like this (long shot as they may be).
IMO it should always be about the performance delivered on that given day. It is hard but whe I judge I try to forget everything I know about the gymnast befor me and judge everyone as a potential winner of the competition based on what they show me.

It is sad to think that anything but the actual skating could play into the score, takes away from the magic of your sport.

 

[Sam L]

I'm pretty sure Hanyu would not repeat. Would be silver or bronze but not gold. For one, he hasn't been that consistent, for anotherr it's very hard to defend and he has some tough competition.

I'm pretty sure Medvedeva will win. She is consistent and even those who are capable of beating her may be nervous. But who knows, this is her first Olympics so maybe she would be nervous also but I doubt it.

 

[Sorrento]

If Evgenia wins, with a similar/same program again, I hope she'll retire. Or some kind of upsets happens. Just so that this sport doesn't become THAT boring.

Her only upset may come from Zaghitova whether she joins the Seniors next sason which is very doubtful (same coach, same target, better not waste energy on both).

 

[leolion11]

I'm pretty sure Hanyu would not repeat. Would be silver or bronze but not gold. For one, he hasn't been that consistent, for anotherr it's very hard to defend and he has some tough competition.

I'm pretty sure Medvedeva will win. She is consistent and even those who are capable of beating her may be nervous. But who knows, this is her first Olympics so maybe she would be nervous also but I doubt it.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Yuzuru definitely won't repeat, but yes I think there's a high chance he won't, and I'm saying this as a fan of his. The men's field is so unpredictable and as of right now there are multiple serious contenders for oly gold that are all capable of winning it if Yuzuru has a bad day (and olympic ice is slippery!). I mean, look at sochi! Everyone was pretty sure Patrick would be a lock for oly gold and Yuzuru was barely even a factor until he beat Patrick at GPF, and then guess what happened But if Yuzuru skates well oly gold will definitely be his.

Medvedeva to me is pretty much a lock at this point.

 

[sarama]

This discussion makes me nervous and uncomfortable already... Unfortunately I believe that the ISU is going to avoid repeating world champions, no matter what. They did it with Plushenko, they did it with Yuna and IMHO they did it with Tessa and Scott in Sochi (and leading up to Sochi). So Evgenia could have a shot, but I'm sure to keep the competition interesting she won't dominate all season, like this one. Sui/Han have a shot as well although that would likely mean no gold at the home Olympics. For Yuzuru and Virtue/Moir's chances I won't hold my breath...

Speaking of ladies though I really hope somebody challenges Evgenia's leadership, I don't think it's beneficial for the skaters as well that she is basically "untouchable"

 

[Li'Kitsu]

If Evgenia wins, with a similar/same program again, I hope she'll retire. Or some kind of upsets happens. Just so that this sport doesn't become THAT boring.

Then don't watch Evgenia barely has to do you the favor of retiring at 18(!) because apparently you have a problem with the currently best skater out there winning and being consistent enough to win everything. I'd think there is worse out there then a skater winning deservedly, but I guess YMMV :sarcasm:
And I'm far from an Evgenia fan and would still criticize things about her skating too, but man, the stuff people put out here regarding her

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Yuzuru definitely won't repeat, but yes I think there's a high chance he won't, and I'm saying this as a fan of his. The men's field is so unpredictable and as of right now there are multiple serious contenders for oly gold that are all capable of winning it if Yuzuru has a bad day (and olympic ice is slippery!). I mean, look at sochi! Everyone was pretty sure Patrick would be a lock for oly gold and Yuzuru was barely even a factor until he beat Patrick at GPF, and then guess what happened But if Yuzuru skates well oly gold will definitely be his.

I might have read a very different amount of comments afterwards, but I thought going into the 2013-14 season a lot of people thought Patrick was vulnerable. Personally, I predicted the OGM to go to Javi or Yuzu... that doesn't change your point though about ice being slippery, that is true.

 

[MaiKatze]

Her only upset may come from Zaghitova whether she joins the Seniors next sason which is very doubtful (same coach, same target, better not waste energy on both).

Didn't they already say she would? Or was that Marin?

 

[jcoates]

I think the Mens' event is always the most volatile at the Olympics. In the last 30 years, only one man has won the Olympics the year after winning the Worlds (Evan Lysacek), assuming I didn't miss someone . Especially with the level of tech so high, the Mens' event probably has the biggest chance for a surprise winner and surprise podium, even.

Adding to this...

Since the end of US men having a stranglehold on the Olympic title and dominating Worlds from 1948-60, only three reigning men's world champions have actually won the Olympic title the following year, Nepala ('72), Hamilton ('84) and Lysacek ('10).

By contrast, the women have done the same eight times over the same period, Dijkstra ('64), Fleming ('68), Schuba ('72), Witt ('88), Yamaguchi ('92), Baiul ('94), Lipinski ('98), and Kim ('10). In fact, the frequency of that occurring has actually increased in the last 30 years.

 

[Sorrento]

Didn't they already say she would? Or was that Marin?

Haven't seen any official confirmation on Zaghitova yet.

 

[xeyra]

This discussion makes me nervous and uncomfortable already... Unfortunately I believe that the ISU is going to avoid repeating world champions, no matter what. "

This will, of course, depend on what the repeat winners end up doing and what their opponents do too on the day. Harder to manipulate results if repeat winners don't give them much room to do so if they give amazing performances.

Though I guess there's always Sochi Ladies.

 

[noskates]

This is a crap shoot at this point in time but I'll take a stab at it:

Men's - I don't think Hanyu will repeat. My heart tells me Shoma Uno. My brain tells me it will be someone we don't have on our radar right now.
Womens - Probably Medvedeva. She's young and healthy and is a good competitor. Silver and Bronze is anyone's guess. There are probably 10 women right now who could medal but I don't think it will be Ashley Wagner or Pogo. If my feet were held to the fire for a decision I would guess that one of the Canadian ladies will be in the mix.
Dance - I'm hoping the French - Papadakis and Cizeron. I honestly like them so much more than Virtue and Moir and I think their programs are elegant and classy. And sad as I am to say this, I don't think the Shibs will medal.
Pairs Again, my heart says the Germans. My brain says it will probably be this year's World Champs. I don't think Duhamel and Radford will medal.

Haven't based this on any empirical data. Just taking guesses like everyone else. I do think the Grand Prix competitions are going to be very interesting this year. Except for the ladies, I don't think any of the disciplines are written in stone.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Womens - Probably Medvedeva. She's young and healthy and is a good competitor. Silver and Bronze is anyone's guess. There are probably 10 women right now who could medal but I don't think it will be Ashley Wagner or Pogo. If my feet were held to the fire for a decision I would guess that one of the Canadian ladies will be in the mix.

It's interesting because Kaetlyn might not have, and Gabby would not have, made the Russian team. Yet they are the WSM and WBM. I agree that the field is very wide open and a large number of skaters have the PCS ceiling and the TES difficulty to make a run for the podium. This is why I think someone like Mao could be dangerous if she is able to make the team; if she happens to have two "on" days at the Games, she can easily find herself on the podium. I agree with you that it's hard to see Ashley or Anna on the podium, but I'm hoping skaters like Gracie, Polina T, and Alina are able to find great from next season and challenge Evgenia.

 

[narcissa]

It's interesting because Kaetlyn might not have, and Gabby would not have, made the Russian team. Yet they are the WSM and WBM. I agree that the field is very wide open and a large number of skaters have the PCS ceiling and the TES difficulty to make a run for the podium. This is why I think someone like Mao could be dangerous if she is able to make the team; if she happens to have two "on" days at the Games, she can easily find herself on the podium. I agree with you that it's hard to see Ashley or Anna on the podium, but I'm hoping skaters like Gracie, Polina T, and Alina are able to find great from next season and challenge Evgenia.

I wonder if burnout is a thing. Anna seemed a bit burnt out at Worlds. If she didn't have to peak so hard at RN just to make the team (and still barely made it), and then face so much pressure to skate well at Europeans knowing that the team isn't set in stone yet, maybe she would've done better here. In any other country, the reigning WBM and GPF medalist would almost have an automatic bye at nationals. Maybe this level of competition internally prevents the Russian ladies from ever peaking at the last (and most important) event of the season. Katelyn and Gabby peaked; Medvedeva was always this consistent; and the other two Russian ladies have been going downhill since GPF. It's a good thing Karen peaked here than at 4CC but if Anna had skated like Karen did at 4CC, she wouldn't even be on the team.

So in a sense, RusFed might be shooting themselves in the foot here...but what else can you do? You have so many talented girls.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

So in a sense, RusFed might be shooting themselves in the foot here...but what else can you do? You have so many talented girls.

Yeah, I agree. They really can't pick the team too early because there are so many good women who have close results. No one else in the world right now is like Evgenia, who dominates every event, so I'm sure the other Russian women struggle to peak so many times in a single season.

 

[noskates]

All of the above - that's why I think the Grand Prix series is going to be so "telling" this year. Then you can never tell when someone is going to come out of the dark and skate the 2 skates of their lives and best all of the ones we're talking about. I wonder about Polina - she seems to be enjoying being a sorority girl and in college. I also think Mariah Bell has a bright future. She's come so far in the last year and seems to be on the upswing. But I think your point about the Russian ladies having to try so hard just to make their national team is a very good one. I really, really, really want Gracie to come back strong this year and am hoping the coaching change will be the encouragement she needs to excel again. Karen's freeskate just hearkened back to her old self again - great short, sloppy long. But a lot can happen in a year.

 

[MaiKatze]

I wonder if burnout is a thing. Anna seemed a bit burnt out at Worlds. If she didn't have to peak so hard at RN just to make the team (and still barely made it), and then face so much pressure to skate well at Europeans knowing that the team isn't set in stone yet, maybe she would've done better here. In any other country, the reigning WBM and GPF medalist would almost have an automatic bye at nationals. Maybe this level of competition internally prevents the Russian ladies from ever peaking at the last (and most important) event of the season. Katelyn and Gabby peaked; Medvedeva was always this consistent; and the other two Russian ladies have been going downhill since GPF. It's a good thing Karen peaked here than at 4CC but if Anna had skated like Karen did at 4CC, she wouldn't even be on the team.

So in a sense, RusFed might be shooting themselves in the foot here...but what else can you do? You have so many talented girls.

Wow, this is an interesting perspective. Maybe they should spread out the wealth a bit next season? Let the skater who won't make the Olympic Team go to Europeans, or Worlds instead? Anna was having leg problems and you could actually see her condition getting less and less stable over the season.