- Joined
- Mar 30, 2017
Looking at the 4 skaters/teams who won Worlds I think there is a very good shot of all 4 winning the Olympic Gold medal next year, and that is something I dont think I have felt since....well not sure ever really. The closest would be 1987/1988 I guess. I could have seen each of the 4 1987 World Champs- Orser, Witt, Gordeeva & Grinkov, Bestiamanova & Bukin all win gold. 3 of the 4 ultimately did, and the other missed by .1 of a point.
How would you rate each of these 4 skaters/teams chances of gold. Here would be mine:
Medvedeva- The safest bet. Atleast 95% likely to win gold in Pyeongchang.
Virtue & Moir- The clear favorites. I would put them at 75% chance though since Papadakis & Cizeron will be gunning for that gold too, and have a whole year to try and close the gap.
Hanyu- 75%. I give him roughly the same odds as V&M but much less than Medvedeva. With 2 clean programs he cannot be beaten, not even by the guys with more quads but who cannot match his GOE or PCS (Chen and Boyang) but 2 clean programs has never happened for him in a major event thus far, well other than the GPF last year.
Sui & Han- The most vurnerable of the 4 World Champs. I give them roughly 40-45% chance of gold, Savchenko & Massot their main rivals for the OGM also roughly 40-45%, and 10% a Russian team (either consistent but limited Tarasova & Morozov, or potentially brilliant and gold worthy but super erratic Stolbova & Klimov) sneaking out the gold, with a 5% (including Duhamel & Radford or if they attempt a comeback Volsozhar & Trankov) to the rest of the field. I honestly lean slightly more towards Savchenko & Massot now since Aliona wants that gold so badly she will literally step through shattered glass to take and Sui & Han will have to skate even better than they did at worlds last year to prevent that I predict. Another fall on the triple salchow as they usually have, and Aliona who wont repeat the mistakes she made this time will eat them.
How would you rate each of these 4 skaters/teams chances of gold. Here would be mine:
Medvedeva- The safest bet. Atleast 95% likely to win gold in Pyeongchang.
Virtue & Moir- The clear favorites. I would put them at 75% chance though since Papadakis & Cizeron will be gunning for that gold too, and have a whole year to try and close the gap.
Hanyu- 75%. I give him roughly the same odds as V&M but much less than Medvedeva. With 2 clean programs he cannot be beaten, not even by the guys with more quads but who cannot match his GOE or PCS (Chen and Boyang) but 2 clean programs has never happened for him in a major event thus far, well other than the GPF last year.
Sui & Han- The most vurnerable of the 4 World Champs. I give them roughly 40-45% chance of gold, Savchenko & Massot their main rivals for the OGM also roughly 40-45%, and 10% a Russian team (either consistent but limited Tarasova & Morozov, or potentially brilliant and gold worthy but super erratic Stolbova & Klimov) sneaking out the gold, with a 5% (including Duhamel & Radford or if they attempt a comeback Volsozhar & Trankov) to the rest of the field. I honestly lean slightly more towards Savchenko & Massot now since Aliona wants that gold so badly she will literally step through shattered glass to take and Sui & Han will have to skate even better than they did at worlds last year to prevent that I predict. Another fall on the triple salchow as they usually have, and Aliona who wont repeat the mistakes she made this time will eat them.