2008/09 High Scorers Average - Men

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Based on individual GPs, GPFinal, Euros/or 4CC, Worlds

1. Brian Joubert - 229.97 (withdrew from GPF)

2. Patrick Chan - 229.09

3. Evan Lysacek - 227.97 (did not qualify for GPF)

4. Takahito Kozuka - 225.10

5. Jeremy Abbott - 222.05

6. Johnny Weir - 221.57 (did not skate 4CC or Worlds)

7. Tomas Verner - 214.95

 

[Mathman]

Very interesting. Except for Verner, they are all quite close.

 

[Sinclare]

Interesting concept. I saw you included the top three American skaters I averaged the international scores of the next 4 Americans in the standings:

1. Carriere 204.77

2. Rippon 201.58

3. Mroz 196.41

4. Bradley 194.03

 

[Tinymavy15]

Interesting concept. I saw you included the top three American skaters I averaged the international scores of the next 4 Americans in the standings:

1. Carriere 204.77

2. Rippon 201.58

3. Mroz 196.41

4. Bradley 194.03

how did Carriere score higher than Mroz?

 

[Tonichelle]

higher scores in the international compettions he entered?

 

[Sinclare]

how did Carriere score higher than Mroz?

Mroz did not score above 200 until WC. The other three men scored over 200 last season as well as this season internationally. I only used International scores to add to the list above.

Here's the breakdown:

Carriere: 217.25 , 192.30 (GPS)
Rippon: 174.82, 207.93 (GPS) 222.0 (JWC)
Bradley: 212.75, 175.62 (GPS)
Mroz: 192.23, 189.46 (GPS) 196.78 (4CC) 207.19 (WC)

It looks as the season progressed Rippon and Mroz's scores inproved. Rippon with a 47 point increase and Mroz with a 18 point increase. It is hard to compare this because if Bradley or Carriere (they only had 2 comps) had skated in 4CC or WC who knows what scores they may have gotten.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Very interesting. Except for Verner, they are all quite close.

Indeed, very close. One could set up a 'bench mark' at 220 per skate in next seasons race to the Olys. If a skater earns 215 and wins one of the GPs, the skater is still lagging behind the competitive goal.

It would be nice if all the skaters had their averages for 2008-09 worked out for themselves and their fans. Not unlike baseball stats.

 

[Buttercup]

I'm not going to check it myself, but I would guess that Joubert's scores had the least variance; he seemed to score within a similar range across all his events. So Brian is likely the most consistent skater among the men. Chan, Verner and Abbott, meanwhile, probably have much greater variance in their scores as they all had real ups and downs - particularly Chan, whose scores were all over the place.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm not going to check it myself, but I would guess that Joubert's scores had the least variance; he seemed to score within a similar range across all his events. So Brian is likely the most consistent skater among the men. Chan, Verner and Abbott, meanwhile, probably have much greater variance in their scores as they all had real ups and downs - particularly Chan, whose scores were all over the place.

I feel you are correct, but would that suggest the MEAN would be a better gauge than the AVERAGE in finding a benchmark?

 

[Buttercup]

Joe, I think what you posted is not what you meant to post, because mean and average are basically the same thing. Median scores won't give you much to work with, either. I would suggest mean plus standard deviation - if we want to get all boringly technical . But then you might want to use results from more than one season, because 5-6 events are not a very large sample to work with.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, I think what you posted is not what you meant to post, because mean and average are basically the same thing. Median scores won't give you much to work with, either. I would suggest mean plus standard deviation - if we want to get all boringly technical . But then you might want to use results from more than one season, because 5-6 events are not a very large sample to work with.

Buttercup As you are aware, I am not interested in PBs with different judges and different venues. As a quick thought, I proposed the averages of the scores for 2GPs, GPF, Euros or 4CC, and Worlds during a full season of competitions. (Not interested in Nationals or B comps.) The 5 comps which speak the depth of the contestant for a season would be averaged and divided by 5 to come up with what the skater actually averaged out during that season.

As MM said, the averaged out scores are all very close with the top tier skaters, I can understand the results are not saying much as a tool for predicting the future. I do believe, it could be a tool for the second tier skaters to guide their goals. Lutai, Chipeur, Brezina, Rippon, Mroz, Oda, etc. to see if they can break away from the pack and become top tier skaters.

I would very much appreciate a revision of the average or a new scheme to evaluate the standings in terms of what happened during a given season. Please devise one. As I prefer to read 'standings' as in baseball, I am not interested in accumulating past data to be included. For example: in 2007/08 season a skater improved or worsened in the 2008/09 season.

I do think a good scheme would give more insight into the 2nd tier skaters, and maybe the 1st tier as well. Some posters believe Weir has seen bettter days but the three comps he did in 2008 showed he was still in there.

 

[Buttercup]

Buttercup As you are aware, I am not interested in PBs with different judges and different venues. As a quick thought, I proposed the averages of the scores for 2GPs, GPF, Euros or 4CC, and Worlds during a full season of competitions. (Not interested in Nationals or B comps.) The 5 comps which speak the depth of the contestant for a season would be averaged and divided by 5 to come up with what the skater actually averaged out during that season.

Joe, I thought I was answering a question on math and statistics, not on judging between events and venues...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, I thought I was answering a question on math and statistics, not on judging between events and venues...

Once you have a statistic, it is now comparable with another. I presume you don't follows Stats in other sports. How the Stats are reached is immaterial if the results are justifiable.

I have given 7 skaters an average of their point standings for an inclusive season of major competitions. By all means, come up with a better way of doing this, and I will definitely appreciate it.

I have concluded that a benchmark could be established by the results. I will now watch individual major comps in the future, and see which top contenders are maintaining, faultering or improving their 2008-09 average. This, of course, will not determine the winner in the next GP but it will show if the skater is still on the ball.

There was very little discussion of Evan as to being the winner in LA, but he was. So was it an oversight, a fluke? How would Weir have been in that comp?

 

[Dodhiyel]

Thanks for starting this thread, Joe. I think it is a very useful one.

 

[antmanb]

There was very little discussion of Evan as to being the winner in LA, but he was. So was it an oversight, a fluke? How would Weir have been in that comp?

I suspect that given that there is little love for Evan on the boards, the fact he missed the last worlds due to injury and wasn't really on top form for the GP or nationals people had counted him out, or at teh very least did not expect him to pull off a win in LA. People seem to be 50/50 about whether a home crowd helps the skater by pushing him/her along or hinders them with expectation. I think Evan really enjoyed skating at home and it gave him a real boost.

Any evaluation on how Johnny might have done is crystal ball gazing - who knows how he was since nationals, if he's been healthy, how he's been skating, whether all those things would have been constant had he been skating at worlds. It's too unknown, we might as well think about how Lambiel or Buttle might have faired !

Ant

 

[Buttercup]

Joe, I strongly suspect we're not discussing the same thing here, but I guess I can give this one more shot. I do want to emphasize that I'm not very good at explaining anything mathematical, so maybe that's the issue here...

I think that looking at averages in order to predict performance is not useful in figure skating because your sample for each skater (the number of events per season) is small and therefore too influenced by scores at the extreme end of the skater's range of scores (Chan's scores ran from low 200s to nearly 250 - a huge range!). I would be hesitant to draw any firm conclusion from such a small set of observations. Noow, in baseball, which I also follow, the statistics that are based on averages are more meaningful because players have a lot of plate appearances/ innings pitched/etc..

Therefore, as I wrote before, if you want to look at figure skating scores you need both the mean and some kind of distribution measure; and ideally you should look at more than one season if the skater's performances are similar across seasons.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I threw out the Evan and Johnny for pondering over scores-for-the-season. Nothing offiial.

Dodhiel - I'm happy to see someone understand what the seasonal score is all about. I'm not happy with Personal Bests with it's one competition and one set of judges. I prefer the average scores during 5 competitions and different sets of judges. It will be fun for us to discuss the skaters at whatever GP results there are, as to whether their scores are in the range of their last seasonal average. If I find the time, I will work out as many other skaters as possible.

Buttercup - I believe you are right in that we are not on the same wavelength. However, my purpose in using the averages is not for predictions but to follow a skater along the highway of 2009/10 pointing out after the first GP (and so forth): a) he is lagging behind in his 08/09 average and should we now consider him no longer competitive? or b) he is very much in keeping with his 08/09 average and is still a major contender or (c) He never was a contender but now he is since his average scores shot up.

There is also a d) retaining all the seasonal totals in years to come for comparison purposes.

(Predictions are so elusive in this Sport. Are they worth the effort?)

 

[efreedman]

Thanks for starting this thread, Joe. I think it is a very useful one.

It also assumes inter-judge as well as inter-competition reliability which I think that you cannot do. So, I would take averages calculated across competitions with a grain of salt or maybe more.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It also assumes inter-judge as well as inter-competition reliability which I think that you cannot do. So, I would take averages calculated across competitions with a grain of salt or maybe more.

On the other hand, you can stick with the Personal Best score with certain judges at a certain venue for a one-time score to explain the possible future of the skater. You do not have to use the Average Seasonal Best. You are entitled to watch skating as you prefer. No problem.

 

[antmanb]

Buttercup - I believe you are right in that we are not on the same wavelength. However, my purpose in using the averages is not for predictions but to follow a skater along the highway of 2009/10 pointing out after the first GP (and so forth): a) he is lagging behind in his 08/09 average and should we now consider him no longer competitive? or b) he is very much in keeping with his 08/09 average and is still a major contender or (c) He never was a contender but now he is since his average scores shot up.

But I think the point that Buttercup was stating was that none of statements (a), (b) or (c) are meaningful if the Average Score isn't much to go on. Look at e.g. Carolina Kostner (or anyone who had one skate last season that fell way below their expectation, or conversely was way above their expectation). That skews their average. I haven't worked it out but I expect that if Carolina is skating back up to normal next season her GP scores will be considerably higher than her average for this season. What does that tell us? Absolutely nothing - that she had a bad competition last year and her average suffered as a result.

On the other hand, you can stick with the Personal Best score with certain judges at a certain venue for a one-time score to explain the possible future of the skater.

Or you don't have to look at any of the personal best or average scores at all and just view the performances themselves, compare them with last year and come to your own conclusions about where the skater is at, in terms of progress etc.

You do not have to use the Average Seasonal Best. You are entitled to watch skating as you prefer. No problem.

I'm sure everyone at GS will be very pleased to have your permission to enjoy skating however they wish

Ant