Long post, intended for a very much sports-oriented debate. Please don't turn this into a bash fest.
This is not a thread for "how much value should jumps get vs spins/skating skills/step sequences" philosophy or something like that. I agree with the ISU that jumps are hardest and deserving of higher BV. It's definitely more of a thread about quality/judging/PCS/tech calls/if the SoV currently assigned is correct etc.
Having said that, how many quads does Trusova need to win with her skating quality? I agree that she should have won, say, the Russian junior nationals she used to win against the 7 triple programs we used to see there vs everyone else who skated there, or maybe even the junior world title she won when she was the only skater to be attempting quads there (her second title over Shcherbackova is perhaps more debatable). BUT I think arguments can be made that she shouldn't be scoring more than someone who attempts a 3A as their hardest element, but has more quality on their elements and skating than Trusova does. Let's consider how Trusova was skating this season, and with the programs she had. Here is how I break it down:
Yuna Kim, 2013 Worlds: Kim should be outscoring Trusova on the SP, no questions asked, with much better skating quality on everything, and with comparable tech content to boot. It's the LP where it's more debatable, with Kim going for 6 triples and no 3Lo. Her PCS should be far outscoring Trusova's best performance, and she has better quality on everything she attempts too, but I think Trusova with three fully rotated quads (even considering she doesn't attempt triple axels) should be beating her LP. Overall, it is surprising to me how close Kim gets to be with this set of performances despite no 3A or quads with simply the quality she put out. But Kim should lose here.
Mao Asada, 2014 Worlds: Asada should again be outscoring Trusova in the SP. And this time with the LP, despite a UR call I'd give her, and the step out she had, I'd still give her performance with a single 3A in it a slightly higher score than Trusova with three fully rotated quads. Overall, Asada should be beating Trusova with three rotated quads.
With those two out of the way, let's get to her main competition this season. None of them skated a legendary program, and all of them have lower skating quality than Kim and Asada.
Rika Kihira: I admit that I thought Kihira losing narrowly at SCI was the right result without looking at the tech calls with a fine-toothed comb - she attempted three 3As and has much better skating quality and programs, yes, but she didn't do any lutzes, and compared to Trusova attempting four quads, landing three of them - one of them a 4T+1Lo+3S - I felt her victory was right despite the fall, even though the margin was way overblown. BUT if Kihira's full layout with her 3Lz is to be considered, I think she should be beating Trusova even if she does 4 quads and lands all of them rotated.
Alena Kostornaia: Similar to Kihira, Kostornaia with three triple axels should also be coming out to a victory against a four-quad Trusova, but with the programs she had this season, the margin should be narrower than that of Kihira.
Anna Shcherbackova: Shcherbackova could have been the topic of this thread instead. But in her case, the analysis is easy. With two rotated quads, she should definitely be beating a 3 quad Trusova, and maybe even a 4 quad Trusova. Her skating quality is lower than Kihira's and perhaps Kostornaia's, but better than Trusova's.
So the question is, what kind of layout would have Trusova needed to secure a victory no matter which competition she entered? Or do you disagree with what I said here, in which case I'd like to hear why. Which other current skaters should have been considered?
This is not a thread for "how much value should jumps get vs spins/skating skills/step sequences" philosophy or something like that. I agree with the ISU that jumps are hardest and deserving of higher BV. It's definitely more of a thread about quality/judging/PCS/tech calls/if the SoV currently assigned is correct etc.
Having said that, how many quads does Trusova need to win with her skating quality? I agree that she should have won, say, the Russian junior nationals she used to win against the 7 triple programs we used to see there vs everyone else who skated there, or maybe even the junior world title she won when she was the only skater to be attempting quads there (her second title over Shcherbackova is perhaps more debatable). BUT I think arguments can be made that she shouldn't be scoring more than someone who attempts a 3A as their hardest element, but has more quality on their elements and skating than Trusova does. Let's consider how Trusova was skating this season, and with the programs she had. Here is how I break it down:
Yuna Kim, 2013 Worlds: Kim should be outscoring Trusova on the SP, no questions asked, with much better skating quality on everything, and with comparable tech content to boot. It's the LP where it's more debatable, with Kim going for 6 triples and no 3Lo. Her PCS should be far outscoring Trusova's best performance, and she has better quality on everything she attempts too, but I think Trusova with three fully rotated quads (even considering she doesn't attempt triple axels) should be beating her LP. Overall, it is surprising to me how close Kim gets to be with this set of performances despite no 3A or quads with simply the quality she put out. But Kim should lose here.
Mao Asada, 2014 Worlds: Asada should again be outscoring Trusova in the SP. And this time with the LP, despite a UR call I'd give her, and the step out she had, I'd still give her performance with a single 3A in it a slightly higher score than Trusova with three fully rotated quads. Overall, Asada should be beating Trusova with three rotated quads.
With those two out of the way, let's get to her main competition this season. None of them skated a legendary program, and all of them have lower skating quality than Kim and Asada.
Rika Kihira: I admit that I thought Kihira losing narrowly at SCI was the right result without looking at the tech calls with a fine-toothed comb - she attempted three 3As and has much better skating quality and programs, yes, but she didn't do any lutzes, and compared to Trusova attempting four quads, landing three of them - one of them a 4T+1Lo+3S - I felt her victory was right despite the fall, even though the margin was way overblown. BUT if Kihira's full layout with her 3Lz is to be considered, I think she should be beating Trusova even if she does 4 quads and lands all of them rotated.
Alena Kostornaia: Similar to Kihira, Kostornaia with three triple axels should also be coming out to a victory against a four-quad Trusova, but with the programs she had this season, the margin should be narrower than that of Kihira.
Anna Shcherbackova: Shcherbackova could have been the topic of this thread instead. But in her case, the analysis is easy. With two rotated quads, she should definitely be beating a 3 quad Trusova, and maybe even a 4 quad Trusova. Her skating quality is lower than Kihira's and perhaps Kostornaia's, but better than Trusova's.
So the question is, what kind of layout would have Trusova needed to secure a victory no matter which competition she entered? Or do you disagree with what I said here, in which case I'd like to hear why. Which other current skaters should have been considered?