Who will make the GPF?

[Mrs. P]

Will do others, but starting with men:

Men

Two events done:
Michal Brezina 26 (497.49) -- Likely in
Jun Hwan Cha 22 (497.96)
---
Yuzuru Hanyu 15 (297.12) - Rostelecom Cup
Nathan Chen 15 (280.57) IdF
Shoma Uno 15 (277.25) - NHK
Keegan Messing 13 (265.17) - Rostelecom Cup
---
Nam Nguyen 12 (453.93) - Done two events, but putting him for the record.
Sergei Voronov 11 (226.44) - NHK
Alexander Samarin 9 (248.78) -IdF
Mikhail Kolyada 9 (238.79) - Rostelecom Cup
Matteo Rizzo 9 (225.81) - NHK
Boyang Jin 7 (227.28) - IdF
Vincent Zhou 7 (225.75) NHK

Still to skate on GP:
Deniss Vasiljevs, NHK & IdF
Dmitri Aliev, NHK & IdF

 

[kevinVchicago]

Kolyada will have to take on Hanyu again, and Jin is going up against Chen.

I would think it will be hard for either Kolyada or Jin to win those events, and after their skates today they would probably need to win to get to the GPF (Jin especially). Kolyada could go ahead of Cha if he gets a big enough score and finishes second at Rostelecom Cup.

[emoji54]

 

[Ziotic]

I’m just assuming that Nathan,Shoma and Yuzuru win their second events.

So I would say that Keegan will be in as long as he’s on the podium.

Then Kolyada will likely have 2+4, leaving him behind all the 2+3 that we are likely to see, but ahead of those with 3+3.

 

[rachno2]

Messing will make it for sure. He can easily take bronze in CoR, and silver, too, if my baby can't keep it together again. That would give him the same points as Brezina and pretty much assure him entry. Even bronze should be enough, as 2+3 beats the 4+2 Misha would get in this hypothetical scenario (and I, sadly, have serious doubts about this).

I think Voronov has a good chance. It's not a given, but he can take silver in NHK, giving him 3+2. Aliev has a shot, too, although neither of them are very super consistent. And of course there’s Junhwan, waiting to sneak in if anybody messes up.

My predictions at the half-way mark are:

Yuzuru (1+1, but realistically all he has to do is podium)
Shoma (1+1, but realistically all he has to do is podium)
Nathan (1+1, but realistically all he has to do is podium)
Brezina (2+2)
Messing(2+2 or 2+3)
Voronov (3+2)

1/2 Quad Kings, 1/2 Uncles who would have thought?

 

[el henry]

I would love to see Junlieettttttte in the GPF.

Even better if it happens by Deniss V. on a podium

While I’m dreaming

 

[Dreamer57]

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2018/gpsmen.htm

^^ This link could help!
I believe the columns refer to total overall score, total FS, highest FS and total SP.

I would really like to see Keegan and Mikhail in the GPF as I adore both the Chaplin and Carmen free skates. So as long as Mikhail wins silver and Keegan bronze at Rostelecom Cup.

But then again it all kind of depends on how well Sergei, Dmitri and Deniss do at the next event (NHK is quite open I find)

 

[Mrs. P]

Shoma Uno 30 (553.7)
Michal Brezina 26 (497.49)
Sergei Voronov 24 (480.72)
Jun Hwan Cha 22 (497.96)
Matteo Rizzo 20 (450.52)
Vincent Zhou 16 (449.17)

Still to skate second event
Yuzuru Hanyu 15 (297.12) - RC
Nathan Chen 15 (280.57) IdF
Keegan Messing 13 (265.17) - RC
Alexander Samarin 9 (248.78) - - IdF
Mikhail Kolyada 9 (238.79) - RC
Boyang Jin 7 (227.28) - IdF
Dmitri Aliev 7 (219.52) - IdF

Skaters who could play spoiler for others above
Jason Brown IdF (6th, SC)
Kevin Aymoz, IDF (7th, SC)
Julian Yee, RC (7th, SA)
Deniss Vasiljevs, IdF (8th, NHK)

***

 

[Nathan13]

Sergei looks good to make the GPF...he needs Yuzuru and Nathan to win for sure, and Keegan to be second again to seal the deal. Even if a different scenario plays out, he is pretty safe, as far as I can tell.

 

[moriel]

Sergei looks good to make the GPF...he needs Yuzuru and Nathan to win for sure, and Keegan to be second again to seal the deal. Even if a different scenario plays out, he is pretty safe, as far as I can tell.

Sergei is pretty safe. He needs some really exotic scenarios to not make it, tiebreakers included.
At this point, a fair guess is Hanyu, Chen, Shoma, Michal, Voronov and Messing

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Seeing Sergei in the GPF would be awesome!!! #DenisForever

 

[sweetice]

Right now i think:

Men: Uno, Hanyu, Chen, Brezina, Messing, Voronov
Ladies: Miyahara, Tuktamysheva, Kihira, Zagitova, Yamashita, Sakamoto
Pairs: Zabiiako/Enbert, Peng/Jin, James/Cipres, Tarasova/Morozov, Della Monica/Guarise, Boikova/Kozlovskii*
Dance: Hubbel/Donohue, Guignard/Fabbri, Zagorski/Guerreiro, Stepanova/Bukin, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Gilles/Poier.

*this is the most difficult one to predict and may appear strange, but if you going to see the entries, of both rostelecom and IdF, and the scores of the previous events, you'll get it. If the last will coming on the final with 22 points, they will be them.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Please Zhenya, please!

 

[sweetice]

Please Zhenya, please!

She need at least a second place at IdF, after Kihira, with a score good enough to surpass Sakamoto. Not easy but still possible.

Zagorski/Guerreiro's lose was really unespected.

 

[Ziotic]

She need at least a second place at IdF, after Kihira, with a score good enough to surpass Sakamoto. Not easy but still possible.

Zagorski/Guerreiro's lose was really unespected.

Funny that you say that. I was very surprised to see three ahead after the RD. I though for NHK would go to H/B

 

[Colonel Green]

Sergei is pretty safe. He needs some really exotic scenarios to not make it, tiebreakers included.
At this point, a fair guess is Hanyu, Chen, Shoma, Michal, Voronov and Messing

Yeah, Voronov is good for the Final as long as two of the following three things don't happen:

1. Keegan Messing is second at RC, or third with a tiebreaker-beating score.
2. Mikhail Kolyada wins RC.
3. Alexander Samarin wins IdF.

 

[sweetice]

Funny that you say that. I was very surprised to see three ahead after the RD. I though for NHK would go to H/B

Unespected after the short, at least. The gap was relevant.

 

[rachno2]

With the six finalists for the men pretty much set in stone, it's time to pin all hopes and dreams on first alternate :handw: If Kolyada and Samarin win silver at their next events, it will be the highest scorer between the two of them, or Boyang could snatch gold from Nathan at IdF and put himself in position. If they all fail to get these medal colors (very likely tbh....Misha please prove me wrong ), then it will be Junhwan, and what an achievement that would be for him!

More importantly, it's time to petition ISU for 8 spots at GPF men/pairs may be a mess, but the women's field is too deep for only 6!

 

[SnowWhite]

Right now i think:

Men: Uno, Hanyu, Chen, Brezina, Messing, Voronov
Ladies: Miyahara, Tuktamysheva, Kihira, Zagitova, Yamashita, Sakamoto
Pairs: Zabiiako/Enbert, Peng/Jin, James/Cipres, Tarasova/Morozov, Della Monica/Guarise, Boikova/Kozlovskii*
Dance: Hubbel/Donohue, Guignard/Fabbri, Zagorski/Guerreiro, Stepanova/Bukin, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Gilles/Poier.

*this is the most difficult one to predict and may appear strange, but if you going to see the entries, of both rostelecom and IdF, and the scores of the previous events, you'll get it. If the last will coming on the final with 22 points, they will be them.

Your dance picks surprise me a bit. To get this we'd need Hawayek/Baker to finish 5th or lower at IdF, otherwise even 1st/4th beats 2nd/3rd of Z/G, for example. I say Z/G because if G/P can pull off 2nd at IdF, both they and S/K are likely to beat Z/G in the tiebreak.

 

[TallyT]

With the six finalists for the men pretty much set in stone, it's time to pin all hopes and dreams on first alternate :handw: If Kolyada and Samarin win silver at their next events, it will be the highest scorer between the two of them, or Boyang could snatch gold from Nathan at IdF and put himself in position. If they all fail to get these medal colors (very likely tbh....Misha please prove me wrong ), then it will be Junhwan, and what an achievement that would be for him!

I'm torn, I really would LOVE to see Junhwan there - with him Yuzu, Shoma, Sergei and Michal it will be the yummiest GPF (even without Javi, who IMO makes any rink prettier by his presence) for years and yes I know I'm being shallow! But I also want Keegan to make it and think he would deserve to if he does well this weekend (even if he isn't quite as eyecandyish, he plays to his YeOldeWorld strengths and I love that).

Jun is so young though, one of the very youngest to podium at a GP. I think - he's got time and space to grow into a Next Big Thing and contender by Beijing...

And I would scream with joy if Boyang made it.

The men need 8 places too, just to make us happier.

 

[Ichatdelune]

The men need 8 places too, just to make us happier.

Hear, hear! There are too many wonderful skaters for us fans to be satisfied by just 6.

And while Keegan Messing very much deserves to go to Vancouver (under the condition he does at Rostelecom as he did in SC), but I would get out ALL THE BOOZE and get idiotic drunk if I get to see Junhwan at the final. (Still, even if he doesn't make it that darling is only 17, he has time and more than enough potential to grow. If not this year then maybe the next, and when Beijing comes...)