As soon as the results of nationals came in I figured we'd be down to 2 spots next year. It is what it is. No way Chen or Bell can back up a 5th or 6th place Wagner to eke out 3 like Gold or Edmunds did in previous seasons. I'd be saying this regardless of whether they were leading after 4CC SP or were 15th. Inconsistency folks...
State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17
- Thread starter R.D.
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Well, because the judges are not only trying to judge the programs how they want to, they also want to mark the programs consistently with the other judges on the panel. How a skater has scored in previous events gives the judge some guidance about the range of appropriate scores.
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At least we won't have to face the dreaded "who's gonna get the third spot" discussions. I may be wrong but my gut tells me we are going to know exactly who our top two are during an Olympic season and it may even spark some much needed fire into the battle for the National team.
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This is a hardball comment, but one that I think describes reality.
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because we had such a clear number 2 this season.
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Agree but I'm musing about the potential benefits of if we have two spots. Maybe it will change the landscape and maybe not but what is happening now feels unproductive. That third spot is sort of a cushion that could elicit slight complacency in the minds of some skaters when weighing goals and expectations.
Very true. The last three nationals it felt like the top ladies took nationals for granted and decided to so well enough to go to worlds. If there were two slots maybe it would train the ladies to be on their game for next year.
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I feel like Ashley is going unnamed here
. Honestly, at her age, if she wants to hold back at Nationals and save her best for Worlds, I have no problem with it.Ultimately, whatever happens on the GP matters more than at Nationals, when it comes to Worlds spots/performances. For US ladies, making it to the GP final = a trip to Worlds. Do international judges pay more attention to the GP series or to US Nationals? The GP series matters more; that's where you're building your rep. Generally speaking, a GP medal means a trip to Worlds (aside from Mirai in 2014, who won a bronze on the GP series, but had a worse season than Gracie, Ashley, and got beat by unknown Polina at Nationals).
Mariah won silver at SkAM this year and ended up on the Worlds team. Gracie skated awfully on the GP all season and is not on the Worlds team. If Ashley had bombed all season on the GP, maybe she wouldn't be on the team, either. But she won a gold medal, which is more than any other US lady did.
Karen and Mirai have had plenty of chances to prove themselves on the GP, and they haven't, so Nationals really, really mattered.
This is true elsewhere, too. Russia isn't just sending the top ladies at Nationals - they're the top Russians at the GPF, too.
In the interest of making predictions wayyyyyyy too far ahead of time (so I can point to this post later and say that I was right), I think next season will be Mariah, Ashley, and Gracie battling it out, partially because I think they're most likely to be successful on the GP series, as compared to Mirai and Karen.
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The voice of sanity, thank you andromache!
I don't disagree, but I do think that if Ashley's performances had been rewarded with a bit better PCS to put her over Karen -- which commentators said her FS in particular deserved, and wasn't dependent on judges "holding her up" -- it would make a good statement internationally. And yet, Ashley is accustomed to this treatment.
She's made it part of her motivation; it's not just an attitude she takes on. She's truly valiant.
That is the truest statement, the best objective summary of Mirai's current situation, that I've seen. It perplexes me how so many fans/posters want to boost Mirai out of sympathy. I should think they'd want their favorite to earn her place on her own considerable merits.
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This answer is satisfying to me, thank you.
Check this out though - envision the following scenario: we have 2 spots for 2018. Wagner does similarly in the GP in the fall, then proceeds to place 3rd at Nationals. Does the committee deviate and place her on the team for the second Olys in a row? Imagine - if you thought the outcry was bad enough the first time...
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Check this out though - envision the following scenario: we have 2 spots for 2018. Wagner does similarly in the GP in the fall, then proceeds to place 3rd at Nationals. Does the committee deviate and place her on the team for the second Olys in a row? Imagine - if you thought the outcry was bad enough the first time...
That's a good question. I think that would depend on the top two ladies and who places and if they have proven them selves during that GP final. If there is an american lady that has a huge skate at nationals but is relatively not consistent I wouldn't be surprised to see Ashley still make that team.
This has been a legacy problem for her - peaking too early in season. She either peaked during GP or Nationals, then floundered at worlds. Last year was probably the first time I've ever seen her peak at the right time - and it's no surprise she's taking a similar approach this year. But I do not expect her to be in the medal hunt to be honest, even if she skates well.
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Check this out though - envision the following scenario: we have 2 spots for 2018. Wagner does similarly in the GP in the fall, then proceeds to place 3rd at Nationals. Does the committee deviate and place her on the team for the second Olys in a row? Imagine - if you thought the outcry was bad enough the first time...
That would be a disaster. The best solution would be for the USFSA to give one spot to the skater with the best international results and announce that pick before Nationals. Alternatively, the USFSA could have some transparent point system including Nationals so that all results are taken into account in a predefined manner. They have chosen to make the criteria as arbitrary as possible, which is unfortunate.
So unless the feds (probably coaches & sponsors too) lobby for a certain skater, that skater's scores will stay the same and not increase even when he/she makes improvement. Most feds will only lobby for a skater when the skater shows he/she can consistently deliver under pressure.
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It could be possible to discuss this statement if they not only worked harder but showed results. So far this work produced very few clean back to back skates from any of them but Ashley. Gracie in fact just had to skate clean once to win - that's how judges wanted to help her last season. She could not. Polina? May be. I liked her in Sochi. But she was no one then. And the biggest blow to her (which I guess is the reason for her lack of motivation since then) was last year Nationals. Nothing to do with double standards internationally.
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I agree with you, but I also see the (selfish) reasons why USFS does what they do. If USFS announces their, say, selection of Ashley Wagner to the Worlds team before Nationals, then half of the stakes and the excitement has gone out of the window. It makes the event mean less. Even if Nationals ACTUALLY means less than we want it to (and it does, given that USFS can and will deviate from Nationals results), USFS wants the hype and the stakes to be high to make for a more exciting event.
If Nathan Chen had been pre-selected for the World team this year prior to Nationals, it would've made his delivering under pressure those two crazy technically awesome performances less phenomenal. "Oh well since he was pre-selected the pressure is off so whatever it means less."
Or if someone is pre-selected for the Worlds team and then bombs huge and places 10th at Nationals? That's a bad look.
Basically, if USFS was more transparent, it would make Nationals less of a big deal, and I can see why USFS doesn't want to do that.
Anyway, here's hoping that if Ashley is out of the top 2-3 next season at Nationals that whoever is ahead of her has kicked butt on the GP circuit.
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I agree with this completely.
I honestly think that's the reason the Russians are so deadly right now. The competition at home is so fierce that they can't afford to bring anything less than their "A" game at nationals, which isn't the case in the US. One mistake, even a minor one, and the skaters who landed on the podium the year before may not even make the podium (which is exactly what happened this year).
The US skaters don't face that kind of competition and like Sam said, it makes them complacent. It's okay to leave out a jump or have a mistake here or there b/c there's really no one biting at the heels of the top women in any kind of way that they should be worried about. Again, not the case in Russia. There is a steady stream of lethal skaters emerging every season and with only 3 spots for about 7 or 8 contenders, competition is intense. It toughens them up quickly because if they can't deliver they don't get to compete at the bigger international events. And the beautiful thing is not only is their senior field stacked, the junior field is too. Again, SO not the case in the US. No US skater even medaled at a JGP event last year.
Maybe only having 2 spots will light a fire under everyone next year and force some stronger skating across the board.
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Unfortunately, stronger skating/competition isn't forced. It's developed from the ground up, and that's what the Russian system has successfully done. When you have a ton of little girls getting into skating and that skating being supported and encouraged, you end up with a huge talent pool, of which the best compete and make it to the top, at every level.
Whereas in the US, the number of girls getting into skating and having that skating being supported and encouraged competitively is far, far less. So the best is less likely to be as good as the best of the group with the huge pool.
Going down to two spots for the US will not make the top US ladies skate any better. Maybe they'll push themselves harder at Nationals, but idk, I already feel as though they're doing all that they can on the GP series and other international events, not to beat each other, but to beat the international competition, Russian lethal ladies included.
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^^
I do agree that it starts from the ground up. The Russian federation is actively nurturing the talent of its skaters which is a large part of their success. That ain't gonna happen for US skating:noshake:. The sport is too tiny and it doesn't have enough support, so that's not an option.
But I disagree that you can't force it. The thing is there is talent in the US ranks right now but it's not being pushed enough. If the talent that's already available were pushed harder we might end up with some stronger skaters. With only two spots next year maybe Ashley, Gracie, Polina, Karen, Mariah, Mirai, Courtney, etc. will step up their game. If you want to go to the Olympics you need to be top 2...there isn't a cushion for a 3rd spot which means even the top women will have to be on top of their game. Having that knowledge should force them to work harder and focus more.
Honestly that would be enough for me.
I do agree that it starts from the ground up. The Russian federation is actively nurturing the talent of its skaters which is a large part of their success. That ain't gonna happen for US skating:noshake:. The sport is too tiny and it doesn't have enough support, so that's not an option.
But I disagree that you can't force it. The thing is there is talent in the US ranks right now but it's not being pushed enough. If the talent that's already available were pushed harder we might end up with some stronger skaters. With only two spots next year maybe Ashley, Gracie, Polina, Karen, Mariah, Mirai, Courtney, etc. will step up their game. If you want to go to the Olympics you need to be top 2...there isn't a cushion for a 3rd spot which means even the top women will have to be on top of their game. Having that knowledge should force them to work harder and focus more.
Honestly that would be enough for me.
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