Skater Boy are you doing an mid-season assessment? It's better to wait until GPF is done, but let me respond to you.
Tessa & Scott are not going to be winning anything this year. I've come to understand their plan is to gun for the titles next year. This year is about getting used to the new rules, and new style du jour in ice dance, and get their competition legs under them. They let the nerves get to them in Skate Canada in front of a home crowd after two years of not competing. Weaver/Poje have not gone down hill - they stagnated. They needed a change, they and their coaches made one in going to Morozov and Russia. They're planning on peaking later because they changed their programs so much early in the season. Gilles/Poirier have been told to wait their turn while improving their tech. They've embraced that role for now.
I think V/M have a good chance of winning Nationals this year.