Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[Blades of Passion]

But I don't see what makes Kim more attractive than Asada

She looks more like a model (sharper features, longer limbs) and does sexier movements and expressions.

Medvedeva is overscored on some elements for lacking height/distance and muscling but her jumps almost always fulfill at least 6 GOE bullets. 1) creative entry, 2) preceding steps, 3) varied position in the air (tano/rippon), 5) good exit extension/creative exit, 6) good flow, 7) effortless throughout (except for arguably her muscled 3T) 8) matches musical structure (she's a top skater so automatically she gets this uber subjective/pointless GOE bullet every time).

#1 is not a bullet point her jumps should be getting. That should be reserved for things like hydroblading into a jump or a good spiral directly into a jump or a difficult piece of footwork. She always does some kind of transitional movement leading into a jump, but never anything like the examples being discussed in the "Unique Transitions into Jumps" thread.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

She looks more like a model (sharper features, longer limbs) and does sexier movements and expressions.

#1 is not a bullet point her jumps should be getting. That should be reserved for things like hydroblading into a jump or a good spiral directly into a jump or a difficult piece of footwork. She always does some kind of transitional movement leading into a jump, but never anything like the examples being discussed in the "Unique Transitions into Jumps" thread.

Wow in that case, Anna should have the OGM all wrapped up, given her modelesque features and long limbs!

How is Med's entry into her 3L, for example, not a unique entry into a jump? Also the "Unique transitions leading into a jump thread" isn't the ISU's benchmark for GOE assessment. Sorry bout it. If you wanna interpret the rules as "Only a field move into a jump counts as a creative entry" sure, that's on you. But transitional turns can be a creative entry and rewarded as such. Or at least that's how the ISU assesses them. And even if Med doesn't get the creative bullet, she could still get 6 GOE bullets.

I just rewatched her FS and also she's got the most variety of exit transitions by far. And part of the reason is because she's the only skater reliably doing these jumps that she can afford to have these exit transitions. These jumps are merely just part of her choreography and not (comparatively speaking) landmines for errors as they are for many in the rest of the ladies field. If the others had jumps as reliable as hers, of course they would play around with Tanos and exit transitions for more points. But they don't... so they won't. This is why she is in her own league at this point.

 

[Blades of Passion]

How is Med's entry into her 3L, for example, not a unique entry into a jump?

Medvedeva does a nice smooth 3Loop entry but it's not anything that difficult, a forward swinging free leg with an edge change into a 3-turn. "Especially difficult" is what unique really means here. Her 3Loop entry fulfills the "preceded by steps" bullet point.

I just rewatched her FS and also she's got the most variety of exit transitions by far. And part of the reason is because she's the only skater reliably doing these jumps that she can afford to have these exit transitions.

She's not the only skater reliably doing the jumps and she's doing it so reliably in the first place because of how she cheats takeoffs. Her exits are not especially impressive to me, she doesn't land a single jump with speed and high extended free leg. Basically all of her jumps have average-to-minimal speed coming out and then she does a transition after already steadying herself from the landing, not a transition directly out of the landing.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

She's not the only skater reliably doing the jumps and she's doing it so reliably in the first place because of how she cheats takeoffs. Her exits are not especially impressive to me, she doesn't land a single jump with speed and high extended free leg. Basically all of her jumps have average-to-minimal speed coming out and then she does a transition after already steadying herself from the landing, not a transition directly out of the landing.

Evgenia definitely has deficiencies in jump quality, but she is getting mostly +2's for them despite hitting a lot of the bullets. Combos like Daleman's 3T-3T earn (deservedly) higher GOE. However, Evgenia is getting those +2's on every jumping pass throughout her programs, whereas others execute weaker jumps as the program progresses.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Evgenia definitely has deficiencies in jump quality, but she is getting mostly +2's for them despite hitting a lot of the bullets. Combos like Daleman's 3T-3T earn (deservedly) higher GOE. However, Evgenia is getting those +2's on every jumping pass throughout her programs, whereas others execute weaker jumps as the program progresses.

Agreed. Part of the reason Osmond and Daleman medaled is because they "held it together" towards the end compared to other skaters. Which last year was enough to medal but not enough to defeat someone who jumps strong and confidently and cleanly throughout the program.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Medvedeva does a nice smooth 3Loop entry but it's not anything that difficult, a forward swinging free leg with an edge change into a 3-turn. "Especially difficult" is what unique really means here. Her 3Loop entry fulfills the "preceded by steps" bullet point.



She's not the only skater reliably doing the jumps and she's doing it so reliably in the first place because of how she cheats takeoffs. Her exits are not especially impressive to me, she doesn't land a single jump with speed and high extended free leg. Basically all of her jumps have average-to-minimal speed coming out and then she does a transition after already steadying herself from the landing, not a transition directly out of the landing.

Her exit transitions from WC:

3F+3T - change edge, RBI-RFI counter, RFI-RBO bracket

3Z - outside spread eagle (not a very pretty one but still evident)

3L - pivot

3F - RBO-RFO counter, RBO-LBO hop step

2A+2T+2T - no transition but there is clear stretch/extension with her arms and leg

3S+3T - no transition (although she added 3-turn+bracket at WTT)

2A - hop on the exit foot

Also how can a skater do transitions *directly* out of landings without stabilizing themselves and showing some flow on the exit/gliding on the back outside edge? Yes some of the landings she rides the RBO a while (particularly the loop and 2nd flip) before doing the transition but pretty much everyone does exit transitions like that. e.g. When Hanyu lands his 3A to leg kick, he doesn't do the leg kick right as he lands, he glides a bit on the RBO to show flow and control - and then does the creative exit.

This isn't like balance beam where connections have to be made immediately or the credit is lost. There is some leeway and expectation for the skater to show a controlled landing edge before executing an exit transition.

 

[leafygreens]

But here's the thing - overscoring is part of what creates her placements now. When your competitors think they have no chance to win because of the scores you are getting for the exact same level of skating, or even a lesser level, it results in less pressure for you and more for everyone else.

Whoever skates the best at the competition, of which there are many possibilities (even if unlikely). I can see Zagitova becoming better than Medvedeva this season and the judges not caring to disrupt the coronation. Or any lady who can do clean and appealing programs with Triple Axels (Tuktamysheva, Nagasu, Higuchi being the possibilities this season it looks like) but getting held down because of not delivering until the Olympics.

Yes to all this (except I doubt Tuk is coming back.) I can understand skating the same and getting the same score, but how do you skate the same and get a higher score at each competition? The WR scores are just a "thank you for your consistency" gift. Nobody else has a chance of catching up even if they have real improvements because the Medflation is so high.

TBH I don't know that they would have let Gracie win worlds with a perfect free skate due to the Medflation. Gracie only scored 147 with a perfect free at nationals and that's with the home cooking advantage. Even if you got creative and add her nationals free with her worlds short she would have been at about 224 which was a virtual tie with Med. The gold would have come down to .5 points and Gracie definitely could have gotten 2nd but the gold was not a sure thing IMO. I truly believe they will never let anyone come near Med unless she has 3 falls or more.

 

[skylark]

I can understand skating the same and getting the same score, but how do you skate the same and get a higher score at each competition? The WR scores are just a "thank you for your consistency" gift.

This is true, and it's mostly this that keeps me uneasy about Evgenia's dominance of the field. Plus, when one skater or team is so totally dominant, the competitions are less interesting. She's a delightful skater in many ways. I can enjoy her skating and her personality and still feel there's something wrong about the ridiculously high scores.

Nobody else has a chance of catching up even if they have real improvements

I'm not ready to concede that. It's figure skating. Anything is possible!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It's figure skating. Anything is possible!

I agree. On paper, Evgenia has set an incredibly high bar: two 3-3's in the LP, most triples in the bonus, top level on spins and footwork. A skater is going to need to get somewhere close to that technical level to compete.

 

[Ender]

I've only seen Ashley in person once and that was way back in 2011. I completely agree with you about her presentation. It's funny because she and Alissa Czisny, who won, were the 2 skaters who I remembered for their presentation more than their jumps. Rachael Flatt and Mirai actually the 'Highest" jumps. Mirai won the SP, I think, and then didn't have a great long. The thing I liked about Ashley was her fire and determination. When she was warming up, she would fist pump for herself when she landed something big. She's a tiny little thing and it was shocking to see because she's such a big performer.

I think Wagner might do well at the Olympic if she is elected.

 

[Ender]

Medvedeva does a nice smooth 3Loop entry but it's not anything that difficult, a forward swinging free leg with an edge change into a 3-turn. "Especially difficult" is what unique really means here. Her 3Loop entry fulfills the "preceded by steps" bullet point.
She's not the only skater reliably doing the jumps and she's doing it so reliably in the first place because of how she cheats takeoffs. Her exits are not especially impressive to me, she doesn't land a single jump with speed and high extended free leg. Basically all of her jumps have average-to-minimal speed coming out and then she does a transition after already steadying herself from the landing, not a transition directly out of the landing.

Medvedeva does have several series of nice entries and exits in and out of her jumps. But I don't think she ever has true speed out if her jumps like Osmond. However Osmond's jumps are too wild.

 

[skylark]

I agree. On paper, Evgenia has set an incredibly high bar: two 3-3's in the LP, most triples in the bonus, top level on spins and footwork. A skater is going to need to get somewhere close to that technical level to compete.

Of course. The technical is a given. Leafygreens was talking about Evgenia's scores continuing to go up, pretty much as a thank you for being so consistent, so high that no one else can possibly catch up.

 

[Osmond4gold]

Medvedeva does have several series of nice entries and exits in and out of her jumps. But I don't think she ever has true speed out if her jumps like Osmond. However Osmond's jumps are too wild.

Yup, "wild" enough to have earned an Olympic and World Silver medals. How about Big, Bold and Beautiful with Speed and Transitions? Just saying.

 

[chuckm]

Medvedeva is on the podium every single time she competes, and she has a current winning streak starting with the 2015-16 GPF that includes 2016 Russian Nationals, 2016 Euros, 2016 Worlds, 2016 Skate Canada, 2016 Trophee de France, 2016/17 GPF, 2017 Russian Nationals, 2017 Euros and 2017 Worlds. That is 10 major championships in a row! And she was the top ladies scorer at both WTT 2016 and 2017.

It doesn't matter if Medvedeva doesn't have "true speed out of her jumps like Osmond" when she has the level of consistency that she commands. Osmond may have speed out of her jumps, but her control of that speed is erratic. When the control goes awry, so does the jump. Osmond has had great results from time to time, but not consistently. She made it to the GPF last season, but did not medal there, and she unexpectedly finished off the podium at 4CC 2017.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Her exit transitions from WC:

3Z - outside spread eagle (not a very pretty one but still evident)

This is an example of busywork in choreography these days; such a thing shouldn't automatically count for anything special. A skater doing a weak spread eagle after the point a jump landing should be considered "concluded" has nothing to do with the quality of the jump itself. Maybe it can be good interpretation of the music (but in Medvedeva's program isn't anything special in that regard either), being able to highlight a moment of delicacy, but it isn't impressive otherwise.

Also, spread eagle exits can sometimes just mask a faulty landing and these shouldn't count as any kind of special transition or landing at all (a recent example would be the one Hanyu did at the end of throwing in a 4toe+3sal combo). When you land a jump your body is naturally going in that direction anyway and putting your free foot down is naturally a way to steady extra momentum from the jump that wasn't able to be controlled otherwise. A real spread eagle exit transition directly from a jump should show some speed and control.

how can a skater do transitions *directly* out of landings

Oh please. People have shown twizzles, spirals, power pulls, spread eagles, and leaps directly from landings. And what do you think a +Loop combo is? The skater transitions immediately from the landing of a jump into a Loop jump. In the past people did double axels directly into spins too.

Bonus for a difficult exit should be exactly that - difficult. And yes the connection should be quite immediate to count, otherwise it should be viewed as something just for the Transitions (and hopefully Choreography/Interpretation) component, not as GOE bonus for the jump itself.

Remember the "good extension on landing" clause too; if a skater is hurting the speed and extension of their landing in order to then be able to do a transition a second later, it doesn't show something special about the jump. It just becomes a choreography choice.

Evgenia is getting those +2's on every jumping pass throughout her programs

Because of bad judging. Her double axel elements should be +1 at most and frequently 0 GOE, such as the 2A+2T+2T combo she did at Worlds. A bunch of tiny, barely-rotated jumps and no speed coming out. An arm over the head doesn't impress me there, it doesn't make up for all of the other lacking qualities. And of course her Lutz and other jump combos are getting free passes when they shouldn't be.

The one thing that can be said about Medvedeva's skating as compared to the Senior field last season is how seamless it is (although Miyahara did that too, but with even more problematic jumps). She is getting overscored on GOE's, her skating skills and transitions are not worthy of 9+ PCS, there's very little about her choreography that is truly spectacular, and the interpretation of the music is questionable, but she does perform the material she has with a considerable amount of naturalism and unity.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Medvedeva does have several series of nice entries and exits in and out of her jumps. But I don't think she ever has true speed out if her jumps like Osmond. However Osmond's jumps are too wild.

Yup, "wild" enough to have earned an Olympic and World silver medals. How about Big, Bold and Beautiful with Speed and Transitions? Just saying.

Well said, Osmond4gold. I love Kaetlyn's big bold and beautiful jumps with speed and transition. As well, there is no worry of puberty monster wrecking her mature, elegant and expressive performances.

Relative lack of power aside, Evgenia has few weaknesses and it's her overall excellence and consistency that have put her on top in the almost unbeatable category. She uses her small stature well.

Gabby Dalemann, Worlds Bronze Medalist, is the one with the most powerful and somewhat wild jumps. If she reigns in her energy, WOW!

 

[Osmond4gold]

Osmond has had great results ...

Thanks chuckm! Coming from you, to admit that "Osmond has had great results", is pure joy to me given your history of diminished expectations for Canadian women. A 9th place prediction for Kaetlyn at Worlds and Gabby not even in your top ten radar, wasn't it? I fully expect Kaetlyn to continue her trajectory, as she did last season in what was still a rebuilding year. As some on here know, re-learning how to jump after a major and possibly a career ending injury, can always be tricky.

 

[narcissa]

-_-

 

[LoveSkater]

Med Gabby Osmond and Honda / Mai.
Sad but no US ladies. Wagner may be on podium but i dont belive in her gold anyway.

 

[lanark]

Unfortunately, I think Medvedeva will win gold.

For silver or bronze I think Daleman has a great change if she skates well like she did last season.

I like Olympics because anything can happen, all the drama!
Skaters might do well and then suddenly the pressure and BAM! They fall like a sack of potatoes! lol

Let's hope we don't have major fails, I hope everyone skates clean(only in my dreams though)...

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