Some analysis of 17/18 scores

[Baron Vladimir]

I did analysis of some skaters scores who will compete at Europeans. I thought this could be helpful in telling us what we can expect from this competition. I primarily concentrated on skaters who will compete for medals, according to theirs scores this season. So i found their average score from this year international competitions (Challenger and Grand Prix) and calculate their possible min and max score (aka range of possible scores they got this season)... (deductions are not included in scores analysis)....

1.EVGENIA MEDVEDEVA
Average score:
SP 80.26 (TES:42.44 PCS:37.82/9.33/9.37/9.56/9.43/9.58)
FP 147.85 (TES:72.94 PCS:74.91/9.35/9.29/9.30/9.43/9.45)
TOTAL 228.11
Possible Range: min 223.04 - max 232.65

2.ALINA ZAGITOVA
Average score:
SP 70.55 (TES:38.29 PCS:32.26/7.95/7.95/8.00/8.26/8.16)
FP 147.52 (TES:78.54 PCS:68.98/8.50/8.42/8.82/8.64/8.73)
TOTAL 218.07
Possible Range: min 206.56 - max 228.49

3.CAROLINA KOSTNER
Average score:
SP 72.43 (TES:35.49 PCS:36.94/9.09/9.05/9.24/9.36/9.43)
FP 134.80 (TES:61.49 PCS:73.31/9.02/9.01/9.18/9.26/9.35)
TOTAL 207.23
Possible Range: min 193.49 - max 219.41

4.MARIA SOTSKOVA
Average score:
SP 69.15 (TES:36.73 PCS:32.42/8.15/7.89/8.21/8.11/8.17)
FP 136.83 (TES:69.60 PCS:67.23/8.36/8.14/8.55/8.45/8.52)
TOTAL 205.98
Possible Range: min 192.29 - max 216.47

Other competitors ranked by SB results:
(in this case they will compete probably for 5th place)
5. SCHOTT (Ger) 172.39
6. MEITE (Fra) 171.40
7. RAJICOVA (Svk) 167.61
8. ALGOTSSON (Swe) 167.01
9. LECAVELIER (Fra) 166.43

- Based on average score Evgenia is favorite for gold. Her average score is 10 points higher than Alina's and 20 points than Carolina and Maria. But Zagitova highest posible score is higher than Evgenia average score, so she could end up in 2nd place, behind Alina (3rd and 4th place would be highly unlikely cause Carolina and Maria max scores are lower than Evgenia lowest score). Also, its worth to say Evgenia didnt skate clean SP and FP programmes back to back so her score could be higher.
- Alina is favorite for silver, based on average score. Even her FP average score is on pair with Evgenia, her SP score is noticably lower (even lower than Carolina). Based on her range of scores she could end up in 1st... but also without a medal!
- Carolina and Maria should fight for bronze, based on theirs average scores. Some of them could end up with siver. Its worth to say Carolina didnt skate full intended SP and FP programmes this season back to back so her score could be higher (even higher than Evgenia possible min score, so there are chances she could end up with gold).
- France could gain 3 spots for Ladies. Germany also, but with lower chance. Last year top 10 finisher Toth (Hun) is back from injury, so if she is fit she could fight for that 5th place (she got 172.65 last year finishing 8th). Hendrickx (Bel) could fight for 5th also (she got 172.71 last year finishing 7th).

That was what i think is important to say about upcoming Ladies competition at Euro. I will post my Mens, Pairs and Dances analysis later

 

[yoloaxel]

Thank you! Very interesting

Some additional notes:

-Evgenia was pretty injured at NHK, where she got her lowest scores of the season
-Evgenia's condition after injury is still a ????
-Carolina might add a Lutz to her FS to raise her BV

 

[Spirals for Miles]

and Alina + Carolina's max is at Nationals

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Thank you! Very interesting

Some additional notes:

-Evgenia was pretty injured at NHK, where she got her lowest scores of the season
-Evgenia's condition after injury is still a ????
-Carolina might add a Lutz to her FS to raise her BV

Also, PCS scores Ladies (and also Men) got at GPF are generally higher than what they got in previous competitions, especially comparing to earlier ones (at some Challengers at the beginning of the season).

 

[Baron Vladimir]

and Alina + Carolina's max is at Nationals

I didnt include Nationals scores here. Only Challengers, Grand Prix and GPF scores. But in min score i included any lowest score they got for TES or PCS across all the competitions, and for max score i included any highest score... For example Alina possible highest FP score is combination of TES she got at Grand Prix in France and PCS she got at Grand Prix final... But you were right, Alina possible highest score this season is not that high, its 228,49 :agree: So, i've changed it.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I didnt include Nationals scores here. Only Challengers, Grand Prix and GPF scores. But in min score i included any lowest score they got for TES or PCS across all the competitions, and for max score i included any highest score... For example Alina possible highest FP score is combination of TES she got at Grand Prix in France and PCS she got at Grand Prix final.

ah okay
that makes more sense
but then wouldn't Zhenya's FS be higher?

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Her possible max score is a 1-2 point higher than her season best. Like i said she didnt skate totally clean FS yet. Also, the fact is she had only 3 competitions this year from which i could choose her possible max score and she didnt compete in GPF where ladies score in PCS were generally higher comparing with some earlier competitions (probably because skaters competing in GPF had for more training sessions at that point of time so they had chance to learn their programmes better, comparing to their skating of programmes at the begining of the season)

 

[yoloaxel]

Her possible max score is a 1-2 point higher than her season best. Like i said she didnt skate totally clean FS yet. Also, the fact is she had only 3 competitions this year from which i could choose her possible max score and she didnt compete in GPF where ladies score in PCS were generally higher comparing with some earlier competitions (probably because skaters competing in GPF had for more training sessions at that point of time so they had chance to learn their programmes better, comparing to their skating of programmes at the begining of the season)

I think a clean Evgenia can score 233-235

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Her possible max score is a 1-2 point higher than her season best. Like i said she didnt skate totally clean FS yet. Also, the fact is she had only 3 competitions this year from which i could choose her possible max score and she didnt compete in GPF where ladies score in PCS were generally higher comparing with some earlier competitions (probably because skaters competing in GPF had for more training sessions at that point of time so they had chance to learn their programmes better, comparing to their skating of programmes at the begining of the season)

Did you not count JO?

 

[Baron Vladimir]

I think a clean Evgenia can score 233-235

:agree:

 

[kevinVchicago]

- France could gain 3 spots for Ladies. Germany also, but with lower chance. Last year top 10 finisher Toth (Hun) is back from injury, so if she is fit she could fight for that 5th place (she got 172.65 last year finishing 8th). Hendrickx (Bel) could fight for 5th also (she got 172.71 last year finishing 7th).

Really interesting analysis, thanks! I'll be very excited to see about the 5th-10th place finishers. Perhaps there will be some surprises! I'm really hoping that Tóth Ivett is feeling well, and that Laurine Lecavelier shows up with her best.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Analyses of Mens scores

1.JAVIER FERNANDEZ
Average score:
SP 99.88 (TES:53.00 PCS:46.88/9.26/9.22/9.41/9.45/9.54)
FP 173.06 (TES:81.60 PCS:91.46/9.14/9.09/8.88/9.31/9.31)
TOTAL 272.94
Possible range: min 253.75 - max 287.39

2.MIKHAIL KOLYADA
Average score:
SP 91.71 (TES:49.25 PCS:42.46/8.65/8.29/8.45/8.57/8.50)
FP 179.11 (TES:92.57 PCS:86.54/8.81/8.46/8.46/8.76/8.78)
TOTAL 270.82
Possible range: min 238.84 - max 293.93

Those 2 are clear favorites for gold (and silver). So, i post more detailed analyses of their scores only (i will include more skaters in threads made for some other competitions ). There are lot of other skaters who could fight for bronze (or to finish in top 5). They are ranked by their Season Best:
3. SAMARIN (RUS) 253.13
4. HENDRICKX (BEL) 253.06
5. BYCHENKO (ISR) 252.07
6. KVITELASHVILI (GEO) 250.26

7. ALIEV (RUS) 239.61
8. BREZINA (CZE) 237.04
9. VASILJEVS (LAT) 234.80
10. PANIOT (UKR) 233.16
11. RIZZO (ITA) 232.98

- According to theirs average scores Javier is slightly favorite for gold, comparing to Mikhail. But his average TES in FP is more than 10 points lower then Mikhails one, so if he wants to win he needs to skate his FP better.
- Mikhails scores this season are all over the place! His possible max score is highest than Javiers possible highest score, so he has a real chance to win. But he could also end up out of top 5, cause he can score bellow 250 points.
- Battle for bronze (or silver, if Mikhail skate his lower scores this season) should be interesting to watch, there are plenty of skaters who can win it (i named nine of them ). Some of them ranked lower in SB rankings will be probably happy to finish in top 5 (or 5th). Some other notable names who came back from injury can join the fight for high placement, as Besseghier (FRA), last year 9th place finisher and Liebers (GER), two time 6th place finisher and 8th at last Olympics. Majorov (SWE), ex 6th place finisher and Samohin (ISR), ex World Junior champion could spoil that fight.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Analyses of Pairs scores

1.TARASOVA/MOROZOV
Average score:
SP 78.37 (TES:41.43 PCS:36.94/9.27/9.06/9.36/9.26/9.19)
FP 140.16 (TES:66.73 PCS:73.42/9.30/9.05/9.12/9.21/9.21)
TOTAL 218.53
Possible range: min 206.43 - max 228.36

2.JAMES/CIPRES
Average score:
SP 73.57 (TES:38.91 PCS:34.66/8.57/8.50/8.82/8.72/8.71)
FP 140.16 (TES:69.70 PCS:70.46/8.77/8.61/8.87/8.90/8.89)
TOTAL 213.73
Possible range: min 210.09 - max 216.86

3, STOLBOVA/KLIMOV
Average score:
SP 72.97 (TES:37.35 PCS:35.62/8.98/8.71/8.81/8.98/9.04)
FP 135.37 (TES:63.95 PCS:71.42/9.05/8.85/8.78/9.02/9.04)
TOTAL 208.34
Possible range: min 191.68 - max 223.93

Other medal (bronze) contenders (ranked by season best):
4. ZABIIAKO/ENBERT (RUS) 202.72
5. DELLA MONICA/GUARISE (ITA) 197.59
6. MARCHEI/HOTAREK (ITA) 193.73

- Tarasova/Morozov are favorites for gold. According to their possible range of scores this season, they are sure medals winner (bronze at least)
- James/Cipres are favorites for silver. They could win gold or end up with bronze at least.
- Stolbova/Klimov are favorites for bronze. But they have a really good chance for gold cause their highest possible score is higher than Tarasova/Morozov average score. They could also finish without the medal.
- Zabiiako/Enbert, Della Monica/Guarise and Marchei/Hotarek could grab the bronze, but only if Stolbova/Klimov skate their lower scores this season. Its highly unlikely they will place higher, like its highly unlikely Tarasova/Morozov and James/Cipres will finish without the medal.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

I didnt post detailed analyses of Ice Dance scores, cause its quite clear from statistic data what we can expect from skaters competing here (i will post ice dance scores when more skaters with higher possibility to fighting for medals are involved in the competition):
- Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA) are clear favorite for gold. According to scores they got this season, nobody can beat them! (cause their minimal possible score is highest than other skaters possible highest score)
- Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA) and Bobrova/Soloviev (RUS) have almost the same average score this season. Some of them will win the silver, and another couple the bronze. Nobody can take them a medal!
- Stepanova/Bukin (RUS) should finish 4th. Guignard/Fabri (ITA) and Coomes/Buckland (GBR) have some (little) chance to finish ahead them.
Note: Keep in mind that all those analysis are based on scores skaters got this season. Some exceptions from those conclusions are possible