State of Russian Ladies in skating: 2014-15 Season

[tulosai]

I believe there are senior B/Challenger series that you can use as qualifying events. The issue is more how the Russian federation will treat it. If she skates well at nationals, they are free to send her wherever they want that she is qualified for. That may mean she only does Worlds for instance. In reality, a Russian skater that has proven to be able to beat people in the grand prix may be seen as a safer bet and sent over her.

This. I frankly can't see Russia, with the depth of current talent, sending anyone who chose not to compete at all on the GP to Worlds-even someone with Adelina's decorations and reputation. If the person was injured, maybe they would be able to go skate it out at Euros, but Russia right at this second is SO SO deep... Julia, Liza, Anna, even Alena could all finish top 5 on the right night. To remain relevant in Russia, Adelina has to compete.

 

[Mrs. P]

And does Adelina really have that much pull with the federation? I mean after all -- the whole fire in her belly at the Olympics because the federation had counted her out. Is she really the apple of the fed's eye now? I'm not privy to the politics, so someone else can enlighten us.

 

[gravy]

We might be looking at an all Russian ladies' podium at the GPF, Euros, and Worlds. And I'd kind of love it.

 

[StitchMonkey]

This. I frankly can't see Russia, with the depth of current talent, sending anyone who chose not to compete at all on the GP to Worlds-even someone with Adelina's decorations and reputation. If the person was injured, maybe they would be able to go skate it out at Euros, but Russia right at this second is SO SO deep... Julia, Liza, Anna, even Alena could all finish top 5 on the right night. To remain relevant in Russia, Adelina has to compete.

I think they would still for a legitimate injury if they felt it was overall better for the Federation.

I also could see them sending someone who spent the grand prix season doing something else that the federation felt was a worth contribution. They may want to have someone like Adeline tour, or go speaking, or who knows what. Basically if she is doing something to promote the federation and otherwise doing more good for them than skating, I could see them sending her. In the end they are going to do what is best for the federation, who knows what they think that may be. I could see situations where they feel a skater is worth more to them in a promotion/publicity role during the GP, and cultivate them as an icon. Especially when they have so many others who they can send and have win.

I don't think they would send her if it was her choice not to compete. But I could see them feeling they can get more use out of a skater in other areas. Hell, I could see them wanting to feature the lesser knowns in the GP, while promoting someone else as an icon and send the icon to worlds. As long as she stays in the good graces of the federation, it really is a who knows game.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The difficulty for Adelina is that she can be hot-or-cold, and there are quite a few Russian ladies who can earn 200 for two good skates. It's going to be brutal for her to compete against girls 15 and 16 years old who can easily rotate all the 3/3s and do high level spins and footwork. You have a situation here like Sarah Hughes faced in 2003; there were plenty of good American ladies so the judges did not prop her up like they might have had she been from a weaker country. It's so competitive that I think it is almost certain that you won't have any of these Russian women make the World team three times before the next Olympics.

 

[Alba]

Are there any wunderkinds around 11 or 12 that will be age eligible for 2018 that scream potential Olympian that you'd recommend following now to watch their growth? Last year someone posted a video of a 10 or 11 y/o with all the jumps and she had a nice presence. I forget her name. It's amazing the depth in ladies Russia now has.

I have picked my favorite but she will be eligible for 2022. Gubanova, 11 years old, and she is simply stunning.

This. I frankly can't see Russia, with the depth of current talent, sending anyone who chose not to compete at all on the GP to Worlds-even someone with Adelina's decorations and reputation. If the person was injured, maybe they would be able to go skate it out at Euros, but Russia right at this second is SO SO deep... Julia, Liza, Anna, even Alena could all finish top 5 on the right night. To remain relevant in Russia, Adelina has to compete.

I agree with this. Besides, Adelina can't afford to do like Kim because let's face it, not only Kim came from S.Korea (so no competition there) but she did prove at international level that she was almost unbeatable even before Vancouver.
I mean her record is impressive. She never got out of the podium.

 

[AliceInWonderland]

.

 

[hippomoomin]

I think how well Yulia does in CoC depends highly on her programs, i.e., how she is packaged. We all know she is not the exactly musicality skater, and she was finishing behind music in her sp in the test skate. With the wrong choice of music, her lack of interpretation may be very obvious. Since her body has not changed, there is no reason to think she would lose her jumps or spins.

 

[Amei]

And does Adelina really have that much pull with the federation? I mean after all -- the whole fire in her belly at the Olympics because the federation had counted her out.

I thought the main reason why she didn't skate was that in the team event only 2 disciplines could switch skaters between the SP and FS. I mean that doesn't mean that she might not have felt slighted that they picked Julia to skate.

This. I frankly can't see Russia, with the depth of current talent, sending anyone who chose not to compete at all on the GP to Worlds-

Agree, I think they are going to look at the full scope of the skaters seasons vs. just nationals. Granted - I think Julia has her spot at Euros booked (barring implosion this season or injury) considering she is defending champ.

even someone with Adelina's decorations and reputation.

While she won the Olympics and has won nationals several times, Adelina is inconsistent at clean skates.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I agree but I think it will be Liza vs Elena for bronze but who knows.

Liza is too inconsistent. She hasn't done a 7 Triple program yet this season, even with 4 competitions under her belt already and watering down her content a bit, so I doubt she will be preferred. She has to completely nail her next 3 competitions in a row or else there's no chance they pick her.

 

[Ophelia]

And does Adelina really have that much pull with the federation? I mean after all -- the whole fire in her belly at the Olympics because the federation had counted her out. Is she really the apple of the fed's eye now? I'm not privy to the politics, so someone else can enlighten us.

I feel like the Fed might prop her up for a bit moving forwards because of the additional gossip and finger pointing that would ensue if she didn't do well.

 

[LiamForeman]

I have picked my favorite but she will be eligible for 2022. Gubanova, 11 years old, and she is simply stunning.

Thanks Alba, that's the one. And she is stunning. I just hope she slows down if she has to wait to 2022 for the Olympics, if that's her goal.

 

[Ophelia]

I agree with this. Besides, Adelina can't afford to do like Kim because let's face it, not only Kim came from S.Korea (so no competition there) but she did prove at international level that she was almost unbeatable even before Vancouver.
I mean her record is impressive. She never got out of the podium.

I would also argue that even if Sotnikova could skip the GP and go to B level events to qualify, she will be disadvantaged at the bigger competitions due to lack of competitive experience compared to other skaters who went through the GP. Kim was an extremely special case of a skater who could show up at the biggest event with barely any prior competitive prep, and still be the favorite for gold/dominate her competition. There hasn't been another skater who could pull that off. I think that is more important to consider than whether or not Russia will let Sotnikova go the B level comp route.

 

[begin]

This might be wrong place to ask, but how exactly does the Russian Fed select their World team?

 

[Totentanz]

This might be wrong place to ask, but how exactly does the Russian Fed select their World team?

They consider Euros' results and if they wanna change one skater in the team, they use Russian Cup Final results (which is held close to world championship to see the current status of candidates).

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I feel like the Fed might prop her up for a bit moving forwards because of the additional gossip and finger pointing that would ensue if she didn't do well.

They will have to back her. I really hope Adelina does well because I can picture her taking away medals from cleaner skaters simply by having a huge PCS advantage over them ... Her Sochi FS garnered 74 points PCS, and that will likely not drop below 70 no matter how poorly she skates... even if her maximum PCS should be 70 to begin with, IMO.

 

[Tutto]

Thanks Alba, that's the one. And she is stunning. I just hope she slows down if she has to wait to 2022 for the Olympics, if that's her goal.

She (Gubanova) is mesmerising, she reminds me of young Sasha Cohen. Lets hope she 'll be saved from injuries & other ills

 

[starlight97]

For me it's

1.Adelina/Yulia
2. Adelina /Yulia
3. Elena

Only the season will show who's going to dominate, Yulia or Adelina.
Imho the Russian fed around Tarasova does favor Adelina over the rest, mainly because of the fact that they built her up from the get go.
Yulia on the other hand kinda popped out of nowhere and was a pleasant surprise for them, especially when Adelina failed to deliver.
I do however think that Adelina was and will be their "darling" (not meant in a bad way), especially after Sochi- they HAVE to back her now, primarily to protect her as a person and skater from sheer abuse and hate und especially to protect their own reputation and to defy the corruption accusations. About the PCS, Ade competed at a B event in Russia recently and her PCS there supported this idea.
I think they had to choose between Yulia or Ade to skate both programs in the team event and they chose Yulia because she had shown more consistency.

It will be extremely interesting to see who of the two comes out on top because Yulia is my personal darling but I do enjoy a clean Adelina as well!

Elena has the 3. Place save imo. Liza can't touch her technically (right now) neither in spins or jumps and Anna is lacking PCS and refinement still. But this could change until nationals. ..

 

[[email protected]]

...which brings up a sad fact that Alena Leonova is likely done. She will have "the last man standing" in Japan. She needs to be absolutely clean and has to have favorable judges. Then she could score around 190. Satoko will have more, Adelina as well unless she implodes. But I am not sure about Gracie and Polina - then Alena might earn the podium. To be around with Sakhanovich and possibly Medvedeva and Sotskova coming out next year she just needs desperately this podium.

In fact she has 2 nice non-generic programs. She has good skating skills and interpretation. I believe, her pcs were too low at SC. But without one good shot (and she only has one left) they will never recover. Well, one could argue about Butyrskaia and Kostner. But these cases are different - they never had the same level of local competition. Leonova will be not only cut for good from Europe and Worlds - next year she may lose GP assignments as well.

 

[noidont]

I would like to see Elena Liza and Anna for at least the Euros team. Adelina does not look good at this time of the year which is understandable. She might come around by Worlds. From the practice videos at CoC Julia seems to be dealing with a rather significant growth spurt, which is also understandable.