Super-SUPER early Oly predictions

[ioanna]

I can't really imagine the order at the moment but

Ladies: Evgenia Medvedeva and Satoko Miyahara have the best chances for the podium because they have pretty much dominated this season with clean skates. Miyahara didn't medal at Worlds but she was third in the free. They were once again 1-2 at TCC (the scores were all sorts of ridiculous but I believe the rankings were right). Whenever they skate you just know they won't make major mistakes. One thing to watch out for is whether Evgenia will have trouble with her jumps like Elena this season. They may be joined by either one of Mao Asada, Ashley Wagner, or Carolina Kostner. Keeping an eye on Wakaba Higuchi. The rest of them are even more unpredictable under pressure.

Men: I would be really disappointed if Yuzuru Hanyu won't get the gold. I was extremely disappointed this year at Worlds. Back in 2014 he didn't quite have the full package and I never shied away from criticizing his flaws but right now he has finally grown to be the best blend of technical skills and presentation. In 2014, Patrick Chan was the better skater but now Yuzuru has it all in my opinion. The Sochi and Worlds 2014 gold medals were won with flawed programs. I'm sure he will be even better by 2018 but his biggest challenge is to replicate clean (maybe WR) back-to-back programs at the Olympics. He will definitely be on the podium, and I expect Fernandez as well. The third skater can be either one of Boyang Jin, Shoma Uno and Nathan Chen since the three of them have shown they've got the quads to battle for a medal. It's also possible that two of them can push Fernandez off the podium by then. It's a deep field.

Ice dance: I have a hard time imagining any other team besides Papadakis/Cizeron winning the gold. Even with the return of Virtue/Moir I think the gold is Papadakis/Cizeron's to lose. The Shibutanis and Weaver/Poje have equal chances of making the podium.

Pairs: Wenjing Sui and Cong Han are capable of winning the gold but a lot of things will depend on Wenjing's injuries. Duhamel/Radford. Savchenko/Massot and/or Stolbova/Klimov are likely to push Volosozhar/Trankov off the podium.

 

[desertskates]

Wow, this is early!

Men:
1. Hanyu for the repeat!
2. Jin
3. Fernandez

Ladies:
1. Medvedeva
2. a russian junior
3. Miyahara

Dance:
1. Papadakis / Cizeron
2. Chock / Bates
3. Shibutani / Shibutani

Pairs:
1. Sui / Han
2. Stolbva / Klimov
3. Savchenko / Massot

 

[sarama]

Just for comparison (and for the fun of it): A little more than four years ago there was a thread about who would be the ladies' olympic champion in Sochi. The statements of then are quite interesting.

More people than I thought picked Adelina....I really thought back then Liza could have made it or Yu-na again....so I am not that good at predictions, but I'll try anyway just to laugh at myself in a couple of years....I really hope not to jinx anyone

MEN:
1.Boyang (mainly because of the bronze medal at first worlds thing), seriously because he seems not to crumble under pressure
2.Yuzuru (Apparently it's almost impossible to repeat as Oly champion, but maybe he'll prove me wrong)
3.Nathan/Javi/Shoma (too hard to pick!!!!)

LADIES:
1.Wakaba or Polina Tsurskaya (or somebody else who manages to up her BV and not UR, I think these two are the most likely to do so)
2.Russian lady (which one? Who knows!?!? I would bet on Liza or Zhenya, but really no idea)
3.Tursynbaeva (if not here in 2022 then, that girl knows what she wants, has a top notch coaching team, and one day I'm sure she will become a great complete skater....maybe I'm delusional)
US ladies won't medal because the press will drive them crazy with "the Olympic medals drought since 2006" ....I'm 100% sure it's going to happen

PAIRS:
1.Sui/Han (if injuries and SBS jumps don't betray them, they will be one of the greatest pairs ever, IMHO they already are: they have it all)
2. And 3. It's messy here, I'd say Aljona/Bruno if they reach their potential in just two more seasons (quad twist and 3A or quad throw) and Duhamel/Radford (out of sheer willpower and grit) or Stolbova/Klimov...I don't think Tatiana/Maxim will go, but if they do, it would be because they can realistically medal

DANCE:
1. Tessa/Scott (I still want to believe in them, and I will likely have my hart crushed again)
2.Gabriella/Guillaume (at this point they have established themselves above all the others)
3.Shibs? Lorraine/Quinn? Madi/Evan? I have no idea but I think it would be somebody from NA and I doubt the judges will let on the podium two canadian teams

And now I will cheat and make dream predictions based on sentimental reasons
MEN: 1.
Chiddy (to end the Canadian curse) or Yuzuru (finally a back-to back Oly champion in singles again!) 2.Javi gets the perfect fairy-tale ending for his career (sometimes I feel his story would make an awesome movie!) 3.Denis (this will probably be his last competition and basically on home soil, it would mean a lot for him to do well)
LADIES:
1.Mao! (No explanation needed) 2. And 3.One of the younger Japanese ladies (Shiraiwa, Marin, Wakaba, Nagai...I would add Satoko but it's never going to happen) I just love them all! OR Gracie (just to make herself proud) OR Anna (If she finally gets decent programs, her SP was a step in the right direction).....also: in my craziest dreams Osmond would medal, I'm starting to lose hope but maybe she would pull a Sotnikova and do for once two clean programs
PAIRS:
1. Sui/Han (I don't want them to wait 3 Olympics like Shen/Zhao to get the gold everybody knows they deserve) OR Aljona/Bruno, just because she would really deserve it!
And I would really love for Seguin/Bilodeau or Lubov/Dylan to medal, but if D/R do o they have no chances
DANCE:
It's basically the same as the other one with the Shibs getting bronze to prove once and for all they are not just good at twizzling

 

[ioanna]

1.Mao! (No explanation needed) 2. And 3.One of the younger Japanese ladies (Shiraiwa, Marin, Wakaba, Nagai...I would add Satoko but it's never going to happen) I just love them all!

Yuna, Marin and most of all Yuka Nagai are all a bit of a stretch... It's more likely to be Satoko than Yuka (who always makes mistakes). Marin also skated plenty of messy programs this season but had a lot of luck; yes she won Jr Worlds but her main competitors Tsurskaya and Fedichkina weren't there. Yuna was the most consistent of all three but the Japanese Nationals will only give the opportunity to 3 skaters out of a very deep field.

 

[Khoai]

Some guys with bad technique but keep rushing will end up hurting themselves a lot and will mess up.

 

[sarama]

Yuna, Marin and most of all Yuka Nagai are all a bit of a stretch... It's more likely to be Satoko than Yuka (who always makes mistakes). Marin also skated plenty of messy programs this season but had a lot of luck; yes she won Jr Worlds but her main competitors Tsurskaya and Fedichkina weren't there. Yuna was the most consistent of all three but the Japanese Nationals will only give the opportunity to 3 skaters out of a very deep field.

I am aware of all of this, but the judges have confirmed many times they will never reward Satoko if they have other options...while I believe that if in the next two seasons the other girls manage to find some consistency the judges COULD get behind them. And talking about Marin never underestimate a lucky skater! And yes, she was lucky at JWC, but she was also fantastic: its unlikely Alisa would have beaten her (due to UR), Polina would have won, but only if super clean!

 

[gsyzf]

Also Uno seems like is standing on the path of his Senpais screwing up the most imprortant competitions and peaking for GPF.

I think all Japanese male skaters peak in the first half of the season because competitions in Japan in intense and their GP performances are part of the worlds selection criteria. They cannot afford to slack off in the first half of the season.

 

[gsyzf]

MEN:
1.Boyang (mainly because of the bronze medal at first worlds thing), seriously because he seems not to crumble under pressure

The bronze medalists at first world championship usually don't win the Olympics in the same quad.
Yagudin won bronze in 1997, and won the Olympics in 2002, 5 years later;
Plushenko won bronze in 1998, and won the Olympics in 2006, 8 years later;
Lysacek won bronze in 2005, and won the Olympics in 2010, 5 years later;
Gachinski won bronze in 2011, but did not win anything after that.
Hanyu won bronze in 2012, and won the Olympics in 2014, 2 years later.

Not all debut world bronze medalists ended up winning the Olympics later. Hanyu is the only one that won the Olympics in the same quad he first medaled at WC. What Yagudin, Plushenko, Lysacek and Hanyu have in common is that they all face intense competition in their own countries. So they had to face pressure throughout most of their active competitive career. So they had to learn to handle pressure since young. Jin hasn't faced any real pressure yet. It depends on how well Jin handles pressure in the future.

 

[mirai4life]

- Polina Tsurskaya vs Evgenia Medvedeva at this moment
- Can see Satoko snatching a spot on the podium as well
- No Gracie Gold on the podium
- Wakaba, Marin can pull an upset

 

[Ares]

Yuna, Marin and most of all Yuka Nagai are all a bit of a stretch... It's more likely to be Satoko than Yuka (who always makes mistakes). Marin also skated plenty of messy programs this season but had a lot of luck; yes she won Jr Worlds but her main competitors Tsurskaya and Fedichkina weren't there. Yuna was the most consistent of all three but the Japanese Nationals will only give the opportunity to 3 skaters out of a very deep field.

Yuka Nagai is fabulous & really graceful skater. I also like her namesake - Aoki. One of the few junior skaters (boys included) who successfully completed 3-lutz - 3 loop combo last season.

 

[ioanna]

Yuka Nagai is fabulous & really graceful skater. I also like her namesake - Aoki. One of the few junior skaters (boys included) who successfully completed 3-lutz - 3 loop combo last season.

I agree, I love Yuka. But at the moment she has about 7 skaters above her in the Japanese hierarchy. Aoki's name is Yuna not Yuka but a successfully completed 3Lz-3Lo didn't lead her anywhere in the long run. Even Mai Mihara went ahead of her.

 

[Ares]

I agree, I love Yuka. But at the moment she has about 7 skaters above her in the Japanese hierarchy. Aoki's name is Yuna not Yuka but a successfully completed 3Lz-3Lo didn't lead her anywhere in the long run. Even Mai Mihara went ahead of her.

Sorry for my mistake I am aware that there is still lots of work for Aoki to do - she is only 14 after all. Nagai is a complete skater but consistency is a problem.

 

[tureis]

Men:
If Yuzu and Javi put in decent skates, there is no way they are not taking gold and silver in some order, especially with the PCS and GOE both of them are now getting. I expect Boyang will have a bit of a rough time until he finds his way with the increased difficulty of his future programs, and may not be ready to seriously fight for a medal. Some of the other young ones have potential for greatness, but even if they get 2 SP and 3-4 FS quads consistent, there is too little time between now and Pyeongchang to climb the PCS ladder. But a couple of them will do well enough to keep Patrick off the podium who will not be able to add a 4S and will continue to struggle with the 3A.

1-2. Yuzu/Javi - not making this call right now after the recent Worlds shocker
3. Shoma - he's most likely as of this moment

Ladies:
Medvedeva's scores are impossible to ignore. The big question in her case is the body development. If she doesn't have an especially rough time, she will be the Russian teenager who is here to stay. Consistency aside, I can't see Satoko remaining the top Japanese skater. (Unless they somehow find a way to raise her jumps, which doesn't seem likely.) But I also don't think the current Japanese juniors will be quite there yet. Gracie and Ashley will continue to stay off the podium outside of the US, but I have a feeling Mao will fight her way back into medal contention.

1. Medvedeva
2. Mao
3. Tsurskaya - although I'm tempted to consider Pogorilaya if her recent performances at Worlds prove to be a breakthrough in confidence/concentration

Pairs:
Sui/Han are a question mark only because of her pending operation. If that's successful, without a doubt they will become the pair to beat. They have the technical goods, plus they already got the highest PCS at Worlds despite an imperfect FS, and the judges' love will only continue to grow with each sizzling performance of theirs. Duhamel/Radford will fall victim to their race to stay ahead of the field in technical difficulty and will fall apart after a failed throw 4Lz. Also, the recent Russian pairs debacle will be a one off thing. At least one Russian pair will be on the podium.

1. Sui/Han
2. Savchenko/Massot - Savchenko's name and their future quad twist will do the job
3. Stolbova/Klimov - they did almost break the world record with a quadless FS, and they will be back with a vengeance

Don't know anything about ice dance...

 

[AsadaFanBoy]

It's so hard to decide!

I'll give my prediction for what I think will happen for two skaters:

Medvedeva will be brilliant in the team event but Tsurkaya will steal the show in the individual event. Her jumps are great and her style is also very nice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[MaxSwagg]

History is against Yuzu, but at the same time it seems like fate! Youngest to win since Dick, first to win GPF/Olympics/Worlds in the same season since Yags...he just has to repeat in 2018! He's only 21 so whatever mental issues has has going on (if any) I'm sure he will figure out. I can't see him leaving Brian. The only thing that could stop him is injury and he seems to have a few pesky but nagging injuries. He should maybe do a Yuna and skip the GP series...

1. Yuzu
2. Javi
3. Who Knows (Can Boyang develop some semblance of presentation? Shoma has horrible jump technique. Patrick or Nathan maybe. Aliev is appearing to be a headcase. 2022 seems more likely for he, Sota and that generation.)

Oh, I hope Mao could get a medal or even win but I just don't think it will happen. Prepared for her to prove me wrong. Would love for Marin to do something special. Ladies field is so volatile anything can happen. Probably won't be Ashley or Gracie on the podium.

As with ladies, the judges need to start awarding component scores appropriately. Hopefully, for the sake of the discipline, it's a legitimate pair like StolKlim or Sui/Han.

PapCiz must win. Don't know if Shibs can keep up the momentum. WeaPo need to something other than their polished-up, rehearsed, BLAND programs as they've already gotten stagnant. Nothing special about Chock and Bates or Cappellini/Lanotte.

 

[pherx4]

Men
1. Boyang/Shoma/Nathan (I feel like it will be a surprise by one of the young ones, with mistakes by Yuzuru)
2. Yuzuru (probably 1st in the SP, but mistakes in the FS or vice versa)
3. Javier Fernandez (I think he peaked the past two seasons, by 2018 he will be 26-27ish, so might battle for a bronze with one of the young ones mentioned above.)

Ladies
1. A 16 years old who hasn't hit the growth spurt yet (most likely russian)
2. A former world champion (most likely russian)
3. One of the veteran (I hoping Gracie/Ashley/Mao since it is most likely their last Olympic)

 

[bwayrose7]

Men:

Gold and silver have to be Yuzu and Javi, unless Yuzu headcases or age begins to take a toll on Javi. As long as they both skate up to their usual standards, sheer numbers should ensure they're on top in one order or the other. Bronze seems pretty up in the air right now. Could be Patrick Chan's last hurrah. Could be Nathan Chen shooting straight to the top. Could be Boyang if he gets something resembling artistry or Shoma if he can iron out his technique. Heck, at this point, it could end up being someone we're not even talking about right now but two years from now everyone will be in awe of. For now, let's say
1. Yuzuru
2. Javier
3. Shoma

Ladies:

I hesitate to throw my vote in for Medvedeva, with a new teenaged Russian anointed one every season, but she seems so far above the rest that, as long as she maintains consistency beyond this breakout season, I think she could snag gold. Gracie and Ashley both have the goods, IMO, but have to turn in their very best performances when it counts, which doesn't always happen for them. But US ladies are finally being seen again as international threats, so that could work in their favor. Miyahara is a possibility, and I never want to count out Mao, but I think I'll go with:

1. Medvedeva
2. Pogorilaya or Tsurskaya
3. Wagner

Pairs:

Frankly, this is the discipline I know the least about, so let's go with the teams that seem to be currently dominating:

1. Sui/Han
2. Stolbova/Klimov
3. Duhamel/Radford

Dance:

From my least favorite to my favorite discipline! At this point, I can't see anyone surpassing P/C within the next two years; look for them to continue dominating. There has to be at least one North American dance team on the podium, and I'm going with the Shibs: they've finally surpassed C/B and then held onto that ranking for the entire second half of the season. This is partly my personal bias speaking, but I think (and hope) that C/B will soon have to be more concerned with losing ground to H/D than gaining on the Shibs; C/B is the only American team to slip this year. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say V/M will not podium this time around, but will finish barely off it. That said, I'm not sure I can see WeaPo getting on the podium if V/M don't, so that counts them out. C/L are fun, but have slipped down the rankings a little each time since Worlds 2014. If one of the Russian pairs can get their act together in time, or if H/D can surpass C/B fast, then I'd put them as contenders for bronze, otherwise, C/B might get bronze by default. So:

1. Papadakis/Cizeron
2. Shibutani/Shibutani
3. Likeliest possibilities seem like C/B or a Russian team (I/Z, preferably)

 

[4everchan]

i feel i have a better chance predicting the weather in 2018 than olympic medals

 

[Layback11]

i feel i have a better chance predicting the weather in 2018 than olympic medals

Well, I correctly predicted rain that wasn't in the forecast for that day (0% chance precip) by looking at the clouds, so if weather forecasting is a proper analogy, maybe I'll be right

 

[chenry1234]

Men
1. Yuzuru Hanyu (Japanese team: Yuzuru, Shoma, Sota)
2. Javier
3. Boyang Jin

Ladies:
1. Russian (Medvedeva? Elizaveta Tuktamysheva? or a junior?)
2. Satoko Miyahara
3. Russian

Pairs:
1. Sui/Han
2. Duhamel/Radford