What Skaters will skate which events In the Olympic Team Event Competition?

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Agree with most of what you said. The only thing is that Russia may be forced to split dance depending on how injured S/K are. This whole fall season, they've been struggling with Nikita's back injury, and I'm not sure if they are capable of doing four programs pretty much back to back. It could lead to a recipe for disaster in the individual event if they're exhausted from the team event. If they split dance, everyone knows that StepBuk deserve to skate it, but people have been speculating all season that Eteri's going to put her daughter in for the free dance. I pray that nepotism isn't actually that powerful, but we'll have to see what ends up happening. Diana Davis has been propped up all season and has gotten some truly ludicrous scores...

Also, I think that they're going to give Kamila the short program and Anna the free program. The short is more important than the free since there are more competitors in the short, and they're not giving a team event medal to a non-Eteri girl. Politically, it's just not going to happen.

For the USA, there's no way Alysa doesn't skate at least one segment. Since she's so obviously the top US lady, they need her consistency, especially for the short program where a really bad skate can tank the chances for a silver medal. Alysa's probably going to do both segments if they end up splitting men and dance. If they split ladies instead of dance, I think it will be Mariah doing the free program. She's more consistent than Karen, and she got that huge score at Rostelecom even without a triple-triple.

I know Eteri has a lot of sway but in the team event ROC will have to share the love. If she got D/S to do ice dance over S/B that would be the gag. All that Warsaw Cup bs scoring aside, there's absolutely no way that she could convince the Russian fed to have D/S as the Russian #2 over Stepanova/Bukin. As long as there's another (or better) viable option, there's no way - it would be like her convincing the Russian feds to put T/M in both pairs segments when M/G is a more viable option.

As for Tuktamysheva - this isn't a scenario like 2018 with Sotskova being the "other" Russian coached by Sokolovskaya who has very little clout comparatively. Tuktamysheva is a former World Champ, reigning World silver medalist, and most importantly is backed by Alexei Mishin, and has been serving it all season.

In 2018 and 2014, a case could have been made for only using Eteri students, since in 2014 Russia chose pairs and ice dance as its multi-entry choices, and in 2018 OAR had two different women and Evgenia and Alina were obvious options.

I don't think Eteri could get away with that in 2022 with Liza being a very viable and reliable option for the SP or even the FS based on the season.

I agree that Alysa might skate the segments instead of Karen, and it would be smarter. But

your ROC : same as mine.

Your canada : ermm... Canada has no choice for ladies.. only one is going... so whoever gets sent, it's really a no brainer so i am not sure where you are going with Daleman there and her already earned gold medal... i mean.. if she is sent to the games, she is doing both segments... if it's Maddie, then it's Maddie

I have mixed feelings about Canada : the SP is crucial... if Canada does very well, they could send the same exact for competitors to the LP.

If Canada does badly in the SP, they will not recover with how this event is set.. so then, rest Keegan and JR.
I don't think that MTM deserve to compete here....

Whoops totally missed that. Hope it’s Madeline.

And yes Liu is the better choice on paper than Chen, so maybe she will do both segments. I just think they might give it to Chen because she didn’t do team last time and I really don’t think she would risk the silver. Liu def has the better scoring potential so yeah maybe I would switch her for Chen if we are talking about what’s most rational (not that USFSA always is lol).

 

[dancelion21]

And yes Liu is the better choice on paper than Chen, so maybe she will do both segments. I just think they might give it to Chen because she didn’t do team last time and I really don’t think she would risk the silver. Liu def has the better scoring potential so yeah maybe I would switch her for Chen if we are talking about what’s most rational (not that USFSA always is lol).

I'll be honest, I don't think USFS likes Karen all that much, and certainly not enough to give her the free skate over Alysa, Mariah, or one of the dance teams and risk losing the silver. Medals also shouldn't be given out as participation prizes. By this logic, it would make far more sense to split dance so that both H/D and C/B are guaranteed a medal. I would argue that they deserve a medal far more than any of the secondary options for the free skate.

 

[jenaj]

deleted

 

[TontoK]

I'll be honest, I don't think USFS likes Karen all that much, and certainly not enough to give her the free skate over Alysa, Mariah, or one of the dance teams and risk losing the silver. Medals also shouldn't be given out as participation prizes. By this logic, it would make far more sense to split dance so that both H/D and C/B are guaranteed a medal. I would argue that they deserve a medal far more than any of the secondary options for the free skate.

I'm indifferent to whether Karen makes the Olympic team, much less gets selected for the Team Event. If she makes it: fine. If she doesn't: fine.

But, in terms of the Team Event free skate, the lowest placement would be fifth because only five teams advance to the free skate segment. Most reasonable folks might agree that the most likely teams to advance would be some combination of Russia, USA, Japan, Canada, China, and Italy.

Any American woman is probably going to finish third in the free segment. Maybe second if things go exceedingly well, maybe 4th if they go poorly. The greater possibility for a major shift in fortunes lies in the short program, where one failed element can have larger implications in placement.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

Hard to say for certain, obviously. But on paper, at this moment, I would guess for the U.S.:

Nathan Chen sp
Jason Brown fp (or Vincent Zhou fp) -- will be an interesting decision since JB has a bronze medal from 2014 Olympics, but didn't make the 2018 Olympics, while Vincent was sent to 2018 Olympics. Ross Miner was ahead of Vincent and Adam at U.S. Nats in 2018. I have always said the team selection for men that year should have been between Adam and Vincent, NOT between Ross and Adam. Ross was in second place at Nationals, and they should have let him go, especially after the fed had shafted his coach Mark Mitchell for an earlier Olympic team in lieu of sending an injured Todd Eldredge (who didn't skate well after being sent). In 2018, Vincent still had time and chances ahead of him, while Ross did not.

Alysa Liu sp and fp

Whichever Designated Pairs team sp and fp

Hubbell/Donahue sp or fp
Chock/Bates sp or fp

 

[Mista Ekko]

I don't understand why people are already casting Jason Brown in that team FS

Vincent has been scoring way higher and performed for the most part more consistently
this season so far, Japan is getting stronger as the season goes on, The Team Silver
could come down to 1 or 2 points difference , Why would the US risk it?

 

[mrrice]

With the new Covid Variant, I've seen that Countries are beginning to ban travel once again. I imagine National events will go on but, I hope this doesn't effect Europeans which are coming up soon. Have there been any announcements?

 

[mrrice]

I don't understand why people are already casting Jason Brown in that team FS

Vincent has been scoring way higher and performed for the most part more consistently
this season so far, Japan is getting stronger as the season goes on, The Team Silver
could come down to 1 or 2 points difference , Why would the US risk it?

I agree. Once Nathan decided he was going to compete in the team event, I thought, great! Nathan and Vincent both have BIG GP wins this season and for me, they are the obvious choices for the team. Jason can bring the house down but, with 1 quad, he doesn't have tech content needed to beat the Japanese or Russian Men.

 

[cto888]

But, in terms of the Team Event free skate, the lowest placement would be fifth because only five teams advance to the free skate segment. Most reasonable folks might agree that the most likely teams to advance would be some combination of Russia, USA, Japan, Canada, China, and Italy.

maybe it's just me, but I'm not sure Italy will for the free skate. Personally i see team georgia as the surprise fifth!

 

[dorispulaski]

It depends on whether the good Morisi or the crashing Morisi shows up for the SP-Georgia could definitely be the fifth.

 

[TontoK]

maybe it's just me, but I'm not sure Italy will for the free skate. Personally i see team georgia as the surprise fifth!

I picked six teams fighting for five spots in the free section, but, yep, Georgia could be in the mix, too.

My best prediction is that Russia (or ROC or whatever they'll be called this time), USA, Canada, and Japan will advance to the Team free skates. Italy, China, and Georgia should fight it out for that last spot. I'd give the edge to China - home ice advantage. But as @dorispulaski points out, who can predict Morisi? On any given day, his SP placement could be anywhere.

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm rooting for Georgia, as they are my adopted small federation.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

I don't understand why people are already casting Jason Brown in that team FS

Vincent has been scoring way higher and performed for the most part more consistently
this season so far, Japan is getting stronger as the season goes on, The Team Silver
could come down to 1 or 2 points difference , Why would the US risk it?

Yeah, Vincent has never appealed to me that much. I get that he's talented and that he can score high and that he has medaled at Worlds, and that he managed to beat a subpar Nathan at SA this season. Still, JB is simply a much more exciting, mesmerizing skater/performer, at his best. Jason has more charisma, finesse and character in his little finger than VZ. Yep, I said it.

OTOH, if you carefully read my 2-cents prediction, you will notice that I mentioned both JB and VZ as being up for selection for the fp in the team competition. Clearly, one or the other will be chosen, if both make the team, since Nathan is not going to skate two programs in the team comp.

Everything is a risk in figure skating, in any case. Plus, I wouldn't trust U.S. fed to know how to choose their way out of an empty room, much less knowing how to make 'risky' Olympic team decisions. As usual, they will follow whatever 'hamhanded' protocol and 'safe' path they end up taking. Once the Olympic team assignments are set after Nationals, it's all a crap shoot anyway and anything can happen, as usual. None of the skaters on the Olympic team should be considered a liability -- they are all talented. It boils down to strategic-thinking, and to some extent, it's about what the skaters feel they want to do and are able to do, along with favoritism and politics in the mix, as always. I would also remind you that anyone can mess up because ice is slippery. Vincent can have and has had implosions. Even Nathan's first Olympics was a huge learning experience, for reasons.

For all we know, another possibility is that Nathan might choose to skate his fp in the team comp, and Jason might be chosen to skate his bada**, mesmerizing sp to Sinnerman. Boom!

ETA:
^^ Of course, it is more likely that Nathan will want to do his sp in the team comp to get his feet underneath him and to get in the right headspace, without overly exerting himself with a fp.

Nathan's new sp to a Benjamin Clementine mix, is about redemption. Nathan was smart to pick a different (yet complementary and still distinctive) Clementine song for the first half where he gets in his jumps, and then the tail end of the program is to the upbeat, celebratory portion of Nemesis! A smart strategy. I think some critics who aren't paying attention, miss the fact that Nathan's sp is not an exact repeat from 2018.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

I'll be honest, I don't think USFS likes Karen all that much,

Huh? Somebody in the fed really likes Karen, and they respect her talent too. Otherwise, Karen wouldn't have been chosen for Worlds in 2021 over Amber Glenn who was ahead of her in second, nor in 2018 for the Olympics over Ashley Wagner who should have placed third over Karen at Nationals that year. Ashley did a lot of heavy lifting for U.S. ladies over the years, and she shouldn't have been punished and dumped on in her final year during the Olympic season simply because she'd gotten burnt out and a bit lost mentally. Ashley had gotten it together with her new fp to LaLa Land, and she should have been given a chance.

As we know, Karen had a lot of boot problems in 2018, plus she didn't skate particularly well at U.S. Nationals, and she was def not in the right headspace either (which came glaringly to light during the Olympics).

It is quite possible that the fed might decide to favor two singles skaters in men's and women's for the 2022 Olympics team event, and pick only one pairs team and one ice dance team to skate both of their programs.

U.S. fed may think that it is easier to give an ice dance team and a pairs team the task of skating 4 programs at the Olympics. Certainly, Davis/White and the Shibutanis were spectacular in doing so in 2014 and in 2018 respectively. With pairs, it was a no-brainer to assign Castelli/Shnapir in 2014 for both programs over Zhang/Bartholomay, and in 2018, the U.S. only got to send one pairs team (the Knierims), so no other choice in that instance, re the team event.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm rooting for Georgia, as they are my adopted small federation.

I'm very interested in the two young Georgian pairs teams. Only one team obviously has been assigned to the Olympics. Was it Metelkina/Parkman? If so, that's nice for them. Georgia is one of the countries who only have one entry in each discipline, so all the skaters will have to do the heavy lifting if they advance to the finals.

Morisi can be an entertaining skater, but he tends to be hit or miss performance-wise.

Figure skating at the 2022 Winter Olympics – Qualification - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Does anyone know what the 'Additional' category means under the 'Qualified countries' section? Who are the 2 additional athletes that Ukraine is allowed to send?

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

When picking you have to consider that women discipline is the flagship of Russian figure skating.
They'll want to spread the medals among the worthy ones. Hence there is a chance Valieva won't be at the team event.
At the same time who cares what guys from the Mishin camp want. Weaklings don't get the priviledge to choose.

Women: any two girls (don't care who)
Men: Kolyada (the only skater with decent PCS)
Pairs: Galiamov, Morozov (no sore losers on the team)
Dance: Katsalapov (obvious)

LOL, the way you phrase this post under team selection seems rather misogynistic. Or, at the very least, dismissive of naming the actual female team members. The guys wouldn't get very far by themselves without the ladies.

Also, Mikhail Kolyada may overthink and get the yips too often, but he is far, far from being a 'weakling.' He has extraordinary skills out-the-wazoo. That he isn't always able to apply his skills to full advantage is what it is. But there's no need to be dismissive of his talent. Nor indeed of the talent of other Russian men. Try competitive figure skating yourself sometime, and see how you would fare.

 

[TontoK]

I'm very interested in the two young Georgian pairs teams. Only one team obviously has been assigned to the Olympics. Was it Metelkina/Parkman? If so, that's nice for them. Georgia is one of the countries who only have one entry in each discipline, so all the skaters will have to do the heavy lifting if they advance to the finals.

Morisi can be an entertaining skater, but he tends to be hit or miss performance-wise.

Figure skating at the 2022 Winter Olympics – Qualification - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Does anyone know what the 'Additional' category means under the 'Qualified countries' section? Who are the 2 additional athletes that Ukraine is allowed to send?

I'm not entirely certain I understand your question. My understanding...

Team Event participants must have individual qualifiers in three of the four disciplines. That's why France and Korea finished 7th and 8th in the points standings, but are ineligible for the Team Event. They each only have entries in two individual disciplines. So they were skipped in the count to 10 Teams.

Ukraine is entitled to two additional athletes to their roster (outside of individual event qualifers). That's because they qualifed in three events, but not pairs. So... a Ukrainian pair will be able to go to the Olympics (two athletes), but can only compete in the Team Event. Similarly, one Italian woman and one German man will be Olympians, but only for the Team Event. None of these "additional athletes" can compete in the individual event.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

I agree. Once Nathan decided he was going to compete in the team event, I thought, great! Nathan and Vincent both have BIG GP wins this season and for me, they are the obvious choices for the team. Jason can bring the house down but, with 1 quad, he doesn't have tech content needed to beat the Japanese or Russian Men.

This is true, and thus it is certainly more likely that Vincent will be chosen to skate his fp in the team comp. Jason will be a cheerleader for his team, no matter what. And Jason has a team Olympic medal from 2014, which I'm sure he prizes. This time around for Jason, it is likely much more about getting to be a part of the Olympic experience once again before he retires. Plus, he can concentrate on giving it his all in the singles event and trying to place at the very least in the top 7 to 8.

ETA:
I would also reiterate that quads are not everything in figure skating, no matter how much they are valued as such. I'd go with watching Jason skate any day over a bevy of awkwardly landed quads by other men, with no sense of refinement, musicality, presence, or storytelling, Excepting Nathan, of course, who has technical and aesthetic chops! Of course, I have to add many other fantastic men, such as Shoma, Yuma, Hanyu, Kazuki, Jun Hwan, Vasiljevs, Messing, Aymoz, Kolyada, Han Yan -- I know he won't be there... , Sadovsky, et al. So many varied and quality men, so little time and page width.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

I'm not entirely certain I understand your question. My understanding...

Team Event participants must have individual qualifiers in three of the four disciplines. That's why France and Korea finished 7th and 8th in the points standings, but are ineligible for the Team Event. They each only have entries in two individual disciplines. So they were skipped in the count to 10 Teams.

Ukraine is entitled to two additional athletes to their roster (outside of individual event qualifers). That's because they qualifed in three events, but not pairs. So... a Ukrainian pair will be able to go to the Olympics (two athletes), but can only compete in the Team Event. Similarly, one Italian woman and one German man will be Olympians, but only for the Team Event. None of these "additional athletes" can compete in the individual event.

This is all very interesting, so thanks for explaining. I was not aware of this scenario as the criteria. Rather circuitous and gnarly. But that's figure skating.

ETA:
I'm sure those who get to make their country's Olympics just to compete in the team event, are stoked. No matter that they can't compete in the individual events, they still get to take part in the Olympics. I don't think the average person truly understands what it means for athletes in many sports just to make it to Olympic trials. So very few make the cut for the Olympic team, and even fewer have the chance to compete for medals, and fewer yet can expect to win medals. In general, fans have such overly high expectations of athletes without truly understanding what they endure.

 

[TontoK]

This is all very interesting, so thanks for explaining. I was not aware of this scenario as the criteria. Rather circuitous and gnarly. But that's figure skating.

ETA:
I'm sure those who get to make their country's Olympics just to compete in the team event, are stoked. No matter that they can't compete in the individual events, they still get to take part in the Olympics. I don't think the average person truly understands what it means for athletes in many sports just to make it to Olympic trials. So very few make the cut for the Olympic team, and even fewer have the chance to compete for medals, and fewer yet can expect to win medals. In general, fans have such overly high expectations of athletes without truly understanding what they endure.

I'm particularly happy for Paul Fentz (I think I posted this before, but I'm old. So perhaps not). He is the most likely German man to be called upon to compete in the Team Event. His Olympics experience in 2022 will most certainly be limited to the Team Event short program, because Germany is unlikely to advance to the Final Five.

I have no idea who will be the Italian woman or the Ukrainian pair. I don't follow those disciplines as closely... or rather I don't follow Italian woman post-Kostner or Ukrainian pairs.

 

[Tavi...]

I don't understand why people are already casting Jason Brown in that team FS

Vincent has been scoring way higher and performed for the most part more consistently
this season so far, Japan is getting stronger as the season goes on, The Team Silver
could come down to 1 or 2 points difference , Why would the US risk it?

Though I doubt Jason will be chosen, Vincent is also a risky choice, just in a different way. Remember how he failed to make the FS at Worlds last April?

He’s clearly capable of scoring higher than most guys not named Nathan, and in 3 competitions this season, his FS scores were between 185-198. That’s great. But he’s also capable of bombing, as he did recently at NHK where his FS score was only 161.18. Yeah he still took silver and had a decent score overall due to a high SP score, but is that really the point when it’s the FS score that matters for the team event?

The real question is, if he’s chosen for the team event FS (which is very likely) which Vincent will show up?