What Skaters will skate which events In the Olympic Team Event Competition?

[Amei]

I don't understand why people are already casting Jason Brown in that team FS

Vincent has been scoring way higher and performed for the most part more consistently
this season so far, Japan is getting stronger as the season goes on, The Team Silver
could come down to 1 or 2 points difference , Why would the US risk it?

Jason is risky because he's not got the technical goods to keep up with the top men and he's not exactly been clean like he needs to be going for the easier tech, but Vincent is just as risky because he may be Skate America amazing or he may be 2021 Worlds SP bad or 2021 NHK Trophy FS bad.

 

[4everchan]

a couple years ago, it would have been clear for me that Jason needs to be the FP man instead of Vincent : the PCS gap was huge... not so much anymore... Either one of these two athletes can be amazing or can make mistakes... but the BV advantage now for Vincent is much higher than the PCS gap versus Jason... To me, if maths are the main factor, it's a Nathan SP and Vincent FP team for the USA

 

[Tavi...]

Frankly I think whoever does the FS will have it tough due to the schedule. And I wonder how they will pace themselves. And if those concerns will impact how they perform in the team event.

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

I have no idea who will be the Italian woman or the Ukrainian pair. I don't follow those disciplines as closely... or rather I don't follow Italian woman post-Kostner or Ukrainian pairs.

The Ukrainian pair will be Sofiia Holichenko/Artem Darensky, as the only senior team with tech mimimums.

The Italian lady is likely to be Lara Naki Gutmann, who just successfully defended her national title. According to the Italian selection criteria*, she's leading the women's standings. Reserves will probably be Marine Piredda (although she has only competed at Nationals this season) and Ginevra Negrello. Italy are first on the reserve list to qualify to the individual event too, should a spot become available there (potentially Sweden's, if their rules don't let Josefin Taljegård attend ).

*the Italian selection criteria is quite amusing. It is mostly very clear and fair, laying out which competitions and scores count towards the ranking. Then essentially includes a statement saying if skaters are less than x number of points apart in the rankings the Federation gets to pick whomever they like (to be fair, it is a reasonable number for each discipline). It also has a point specifically designed to exempt Guignard/Fabbri from having to attend Egna Dance Trophy, but ensures that all the other dance teams have to go!

 

[pearly]

I know Eteri has a lot of sway but in the team event ROC will have to share the love. If she got D/S to do ice dance over S/B that would be the gag. All that Warsaw Cup bs scoring aside, there's absolutely no way that she could convince the Russian fed to have D/S as the Russian #2 over Stepanova/Bukin. As long as there's another (or better) viable option, there's no way - it would be like her convincing the Russian feds to put T/M in both pairs segments when M/G is a more viable option.


I don't think Eteri could get away with that in 2022 with Liza being a very viable and reliable option for the SP or even the FS based on the season.

Sweet summer child. I would love nothing more than for you to be right, but I think the chances of that are getting smaller every day.

 

[pearly]

I don't understand why people are already casting Jason Brown in that team FS

Vincent has been scoring way higher and performed for the most part more consistently
this season so far, Japan is getting stronger as the season goes on, The Team Silver
could come down to 1 or 2 points difference , Why would the US risk it?

It's gonna be a battle for the silver between the US and Japan. I think they need to go with their safer bet and have a feeling it's gonna be Vincent, i.e. anyone with quads.

Either way, I am so excited for all of this. I should probably take time off work in February in order to accommodate getting up in the middle of the night to watch.

 

[Mista Ekko]

Jason is risky because he's not got the technical goods to keep up with the top men and he's not exactly been clean like he needs to be going for the easier tech, but Vincent is just as risky because he may be Skate America amazing or he may be 2021 Worlds SP bad or 2021 NHK Trophy FS bad.

Right, And if you're taking a risk either way
Better go with the way higher scorer, And increase your odds

 

[el henry]

I think it's a little too easy to just say "Go with the higher BV" (and make no mistake, even though I am a Jason fan, I think Vincent will be chosen).

The reliability factor, IME, is a coefficient that needs to be taken into account. When Vincent goes down, he goes down in flames. So his BV must be multiplied by a reliability factor. (let's say .7) For the most part, Jason is reliable, and the last time he went down in flames was 2018 Nats. So his BV must be multiplied by a reliability factor. (let's say .9)

I haven't done the math. I made up the reliability factor. But I believe, conceptually, it should be taken into account. Vincent may still be ahead, but not with just "Oh, his BV".

 

[4everchan]

I think it's a little too easy to just say "Go with the higher BV" (and make no mistake, even though I am a Jason fan, I think Vincent will be chosen).

The reliability factor, IME, is a coefficient that needs to be taken into account. When Vincent goes down, he goes down in flames. So his BV must be multiplied by a reliability factor. (let's say .7) For the most part, Jason is reliable, and the last time he went down in flames was 2018 Nats. So his BV must be multiplied by a reliability factor. (let's say .9)

I haven't done the math. I made up the reliability factor. But I believe, conceptually, it should be taken into account. Vincent may still be ahead, but not with just "Oh, his BV".

I do not understand the logic behind this. If one thinks that the base value is not a strong factor in the first place, then why use it in a math operation with a random coefficient based on something that is subjective to make the result even more arbitrary? I agree with you the base values are nothing until the jumps are landed. However, it does reflect one very important thing : the scoring potential, and that for me, is the main factor. What is Zhou's potential score vs Brown's? Considering that both have shown they can reach the highest levels (and lowest at times) whose highest is higher? To me, that's the pragmatic selection criteria. All the rest becomes subjective. PS I have very little interest in either skaters... so not biased here. PS 2 I believe the choice of the men will not impact the USA as much as the choice of pairs /women.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

I'd put Jason in either program over Vincent because
1. He's more reliable/won't melt down, which makes for good TV
2. He can score very high in both segments, especially if others make mistakes
3. He has a very outgoing and charming personality that makes him a natural star for television "fluff pieces" and marketing, much like Adam Rippon
4. He's not going to win a medal individually, so why not let Vincent, who does have middling stamina, rest and prepare for the individual event?

 

[el henry]

I do not understand the logic behind this. If one thinks that the base value is not a strong factor in the first place, then why use it in a math operation with a random coefficient based on something that is subjective to make the result even more arbitrary? I agree with you the base values are nothing until the jumps are landed. However, it does reflect one very important thing : the scoring potential, and that for me, is the main factor. What is Zhou's potential score vs Brown's? Considering that both have shown they can reach the highest levels (and lowest at times) whose highest is higher? To me, that's the pragmatic selection criteria. All the rest becomes subjective. PS I have very little interest in either skaters... so not biased here. PS 2 I believe the choice of the men will not impact the USA as much as the choice of pairs /women.

Maybe I didn't explain myself clearly enough (spousal unit says that happens all the time. )

I think BV is absolutely a factor, maybe even the highest factor. My argument is that it should not be the *only* factor.

Let's use another example. Let's say Georgia has a male skater in addition to Morisi. Let's posit the skater has solid triples; his BV is many points below Morisi and his quads. But he is consistent and has sky high PCS. Scores higher than Morisi at his worst, lower than Morisi at his best.

Now I'm using this example because I think we may all agree that despite his many attributes, Morisi is a wildly inconsistent skater. If I were the Georgia Fed, I would select hypothetical Mr. Consistent. In athletics, I always prefer probable to potential.

That is just me, and anyone and everyone may disagree. But that is my hypothesis.

Applying it to the US men, Vincent is not as inconsistent as Morisi. If I were the US Fed, as much as I love Jason, I would probably still select Vincent. But I would take consistency into account.

 

[dancelion21]

Seems more likely that US ice dance will be split. In their teleconference, Chock and Bates said that they would like to split it with Hubbell/Donohue. So, if C/B win Nationals, ice dance will probably be split since based on how USFS has divided the team event in the past, the top team gets to choose whether it's split or done solo. H/D were not asked this question in their teleconference, so it's unclear how they stand on this.

https://twitter.com/AnythingGOE/status/1473413174489722881

 

[4everchan]

Maybe I didn't explain myself clearly enough (spousal unit says that happens all the time. )

I think BV is absolutely a factor, maybe even the highest factor. My argument is that it should not be the *only* factor.

Let's use another example. Let's say Georgia has a male skater in addition to Morisi. Let's posit the skater has solid triples; his BV is many points below Morisi and his quads. But he is consistent and has sky high PCS. Scores higher than Morisi at his worst, lower than Morisi at his best.

Now I'm using this example because I think we may all agree that despite his many attributes, Morisi is a wildly inconsistent skater. If I were the Georgia Fed, I would select hypothetical Mr. Consistent. In athletics, I always prefer probable to potential.

That is just me, and anyone and everyone may disagree. But that is my hypothesis.

Applying it to the US men, Vincent is not as inconsistent as Morisi. If I were the US Fed, as much as I love Jason, I would probably still select Vincent. But I would take consistency into account.

i understood what you meant.... but your mathematical demonstration didn't convince me your comparison to the Georgian team also fails to convince me ... simply because Vincent did well in all his very important competitions for the USA this year : qualifying the 3rd man at Nebelhorn, so thanks to him, a third man (who may be Jason as a matter of fact) may have a spot that was never guaranteed on the men's team to start with, and did extremely well at Skate America. He also finished second at NHK. His combined total score is 556 on the GP circuit. Jason's is 523. Vincent had a consistent season, even his lowest outing on GP was in the realm of Jason's best outing. So that's for me not a real factor. Consistency is a funny thing because it may come and then go... It seems to me, though I am not a huge follower of either man, that Vincent has shown a better consistency since his disastrous 2021 SP at worlds... and the kicker for me is Vincent's world medal, something Jason has not achieved. We are talking here about an almost locked down Olympic medal for an athlete. I would find it odd to not put the highest scoring man in contention for that precious opportunity for whatever reason.

 

[el henry]

i understood what you meant.... but your mathematical demonstration didn't convince me your comparison to the Georgian team also fails to convince me ... simply because Vincent did well in all his very important competitions for the USA this year : qualifying the 3rd man at Nebelhorn, so thanks to him, a third man (who may be Jason as a matter of fact) may have a spot that was never guaranteed on the men's team to start with, and did extremely well at Skate America. He also finished second at NHK. His combined total score is 556 on the GP circuit. Jason's is 523. Vincent had a consistent season, even his lowest outing was in the realm of Jason's best outing. So that's for me not a real factor. Consistency is a funny thing because it come and go... It seems to me, though I am not a huge follower of either man, that Vincent has shown a better consistency since his disastrous 2021 SP at worlds... and the kicker for me is Vincent's world medal, something Jason has not achieved. We are talking here about an almost locked down Olympic medal for an athlete. I would find it odd to not put the highest scoring man in contention for that precious opportunity for whatever reason.

Well, if Vincent hadn't bombed so terribly at Worlds he wouldn't have needed Nebelhorn, so there is an argument that Jason secured Vincent's spot

We are arriving in the same place, whether my math or your math, I believe Vincent will be the first choice for the LP.

The real question for me is, does Vincent want to do the LP? How confident does he himself feel in his high BV and his chances for an individual medal?

Only Vincent can answer that question.

 

[dorispulaski]

And it also depends on whether Vincent, like Nathan, believes the Team FS is too close to the Men's SP.

It is possible after all for someone to refuse to participate in the team event, especially. if they think they have a good chance to medal in their singles event.

 

[dancelion21]

And it also depends on whether Vincent, like Nathan, believes the Team FS is too close to the Men's SP.

It is possible after all for someone to refuse to participate in the team event, especially. if they think they have a good chance to medal in their singles event.

Possible yes, but skaters rarely do it unless their country has no chance of medaling in the team event and there are other options. For example, Papadakis/Cizeron chose not to skate the team event at all for France in 2018 since France had no chance at a medal, and they qualified two French teams to the Olympics, so the other team could do it. If, however, let's say France had managed to qualify for the team event this year, P/C would have been forced to skate it since France lost its second ice dance spot at last year's worlds when P/C decided not to participate. However, I don't think any American skaters will be passing up the opportunity to skate in the team event since it's basically a guaranteed medal.

 

[el henry]

Possible yes, but skaters rarely do it unless their country has no chance of medaling in the team event and there are other options. For example, Papadakis/Cizeron chose not to skate the team event at all for France in 2018 since France had no chance at a medal, and they qualified two French teams to the Olympics, so the other team could do it. If, however, let's say France had managed to qualify for the team event this year, P/C would have been forced to skate it since France lost its second ice dance spot at last year's worlds when P/C decided not to participate. However, I don't think any American skaters will be passing up the opportunity to skate in the team event since it's basically a guaranteed medal.

The problem is that the Team men's LP is *one day* before the individual men's SP.

Only Japan and the US are faced with the choice of two men who have conceivable chances to individually medal.

I am risk averse and would jump (hahaha) at the Team Event LP, with the chance of a "guaranteed" medal, but I am not Vincent.

 

[dancelion21]

The problem is that the Team men's LP is *one day* before the individual men's SP.

Only Japan and the US are faced with the choice of two men who have conceivable chances to individually medal.

I am risk averse and would jump (hahaha) at the Team Event LP, with the chance of a "guaranteed" medal, but I am not Vincent.

I think Vincent would choose to skate the Team Free Program if given the opportunity. Again, it's a guaranteed medal, and Vincent is certainly not guaranteed a medal in the men's individual event. Also, Vincent doesn't have any Olympic hardware yet since he didn't skate the team event in 2018.

 

[4everchan]

I am not Vincent... but this would be my mindset if I were him : considering the SP bombing at the last WC, i would love the opportunity to skate the LP's team event, in a relatively lower pressure set up, to feel the olympic ice and conditions of the competition, get my medal, and thus, get my confidence boosted right before the SP I don't think there is much to lose for him, especially if he is fit.

 

[TontoK]

I am not Vincent... but this would be my mindset if I were him : considering the SP bombing at the last WC, i would love the opportunity to skate the LP's team event, in a relatively lower pressure set up, to feel the olympic ice and conditions of the competition, get my medal, and thus, get my confidence boosted right before the SP I don't think there is much to lose for him, especially if he is fit.

Near and dear to your heart: This exact scenario played out in 2018 when V/M skated both segments of the team event, but P/C opted out of the SP because France didn't have a reasonable expectation of advancing to the free programs.

I've often wondered how things would have played out if the French had taken the opportunity to get that first Olympic performance under their belts before the individual event.