Who will make it to the GP final?

[fairly4]

the ladies

after 3 events

I would put

Gracie Gold, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Rika Hongo, Evgenia Medvedeva, Ashley Wagner, Mao Asada

Men

Patrick Chan, Yuzuru Hanyu, Max Aaron, Javier Fernandez, Boyjang Jin, Shoma Uno

Pairs

Voloshar/Trankov, Duhamel & Radford, Kavaguti & Smirnov, Sui & Han


Dance

Chock & bates; Papadakis & cizeron, Shibutani, Weaver & poje, Cappellini & lanotte
still hard anything

too many great skaters will be left off

 

[Crossover]

Men
Javier Fernandez, Patrick Chan, Yuzuru Hanyu, Boyang Jin, Shoma Uno, Max Aaron

Ladies
Evgenia Medvedeva, Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold, Liza Tuktamysheva, Mao Asada, Rika Hongo

Pairs
Sui/Han, Duhamel/Radford, Volosozar/Trankov, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Peng/Zhang, Tarasova/Morozov

Ice Dance
Since Papadakis/Cizeron have withdrawn

Chock/Bates, Weaver/Poje, Cappellinni/Lanotte, Gilles/Poirier, Bobrova/Soloviev, Shibtanies

 

[mirai4life]

i hope Rika makes it lol...

hopefully

Mao
Liz
Rika
Gracie
Ashley
Evgenia

but i wish
Rika
Gracie
Evgenia
Mao
Liz
Satoko

 

[Sugarpova]

wow now that P/C have withdrawn the 2 spots are up for grabs in Dance!
exciting!

my picks
SHibs
CB
W/P
CL
Sk
BS

 

[whatif]

How long will it take for this thread to be the busiest after today's events! Impossible to predict now. Have there ever been grand prix series so unpredictable? For all the wrong and saddest reasons.

 

[Rissa]

If they indeed leave it at SP scores:

I think the most likely ladies lineup would be: Mao, Gracie Gold, Ashley Wagner, Evgenia Medvedeva and then 2 out of Rika Hongo, Satoko Miyahara and Elena Radionova depending how they will do relative of one another at Rostelecom. I hoping Rika will make it, I love her programs.

The Mens: Yuzuru Hanyu, Shoma Uno, Boyang Jin, Kovtun, Patrick Chan and ...? Daisuke Murakami? Though Jason Brown still has a shot if he finishes at least 3rd at NHK and wins a tiebreaker with Daisuke Murakami, although getting ahead of both Kovtun and Boyang Jin seems like a tall order.

 

[kaarle]

If they indeed leave it at SP scores:

The Mens: Yuzuru Hanyu, Shoma Uno, Boyang Jin, Kovtun, Patrick Chan and ...? Daisuke Murakami? Though Jason Brown still has a shot if he finishes at least 3rd at NHK and wins a tiebreaker with Daisuke Murakami, although getting ahead of both Kovtun and Boyang Jin seems like a tall order.

I think you forgot about Fernandez

 

[Rissa]

I think you forgot about Fernandez

:hslap:

And he was supposed to be #1 too, lol. So: Javier, Yuzuru, Shoma, Boyang, Kovtun, Patrick. These are my picks, due to revision after other bizarre happenings in the field. (Oh God, I hope nothing happens.) That would be actually a pretty good selection in terms of variety of styles.

 

[mirai4life]

:hslap:

And he was supposed to be #1 too, lol. So: Javier, Yuzuru, Shoma, Boyang, Kovtun, Patrick. These are my picks, due to revision after other bizarre happenings in the field. (Oh God, I hope nothing happens.) That would be actually a pretty good selection in terms of variety of styles.

that would be awesome

 

[wokulski]

If she just "wants to compete", why is she only competing at Rostelecom?

Because Rostelecom takes place in Russia and she is afraid of competing outside of russia.She knws in her own country gets better PCS

 

[[email protected]]

Yes, and I heard that Tarasova lobbied a lot to have CoR at CSKA rink because Adelina gets there the highest pcs irrespective of the tech panel and judge combination.

 

[silverlake22]

When will we know if SP results are serving as final for TEB? If that is what ends up happening, then Liza is most likely out of GPF and Rika, Elena, Satoko, and Anna all have better odds to make it.

Liza: 2nd (13) + 5th (7) = 20 points so any of the following outcomes would qualify ahead of her:

Elena: 3rd (11) + 3rd (11) = 22 points

Satoko: 3rd (11) + 3rd (11) = 22 points

Rika: 2nd (13) + 4th (9) = 22 points

Anna: 4th (9) + 2nd (13) = 22 points

So in order for Liza to stay ahead of these ladies in the qualifying order we'd need:

Elena finishing 4th or lower at COR (20 points but would lose 1st tiebreaker) - could happen, not sure about how likely
Rika finishing 6th or lower at COR (5th would put her into a tie with Liza, not sure how total score tiebreaker would work given TEB, but Rika's score at her first event was higher) - not very likely to happen
Satoko finishing 4th or lower at NHK (20 points but would lose 1st tiebreaker) - could happen given how stacked the field is, not sure how likely since so many of the ladies there are hot and cold
Anna finishing 3rd or lower at NHK (20 points but would lose 1st tiebreaker) - quite possible given field, TEB has just given her a chance to maybe squeak into GPF with a 2nd place here, whereas before it looked like even a win would not be enough

I would say TEB (if they use the SP placements as final) has really helped Rika's and Elena's chances to make GPF, maybe Satoko too. Also Anna could luck out in the event that Elena and Satoko both win bronze again in that she could qualify for GPF with a 2nd at NHK, regardless of her scores, since 2+4 beats 3+3. Anna winning NHK was a pipe dream but 2nd place could maybe happen as she has beaten Ashley and Satoko before. And I do think given these circumstances someone with either a 2+4 finish or 3+3 finish would qualify.

 

[Layback11]

If TEB SP results are used, Gracie is in for sure (1st + 2nd = 28 and scores that could win any tiebreaker), as is Shoma ( 1st + 2nd = 28 again). V/T are in, should they medal at NHK-same as H/D. G/P depends on placement of other teams (2nd + 3rd = 24). Patrick (1st + 5th = 22) could make it but again, depends on other skaters. T/M (2nd + 7th = 18) are almost surely out. P/Z (2nd = 13) could make it with a win or silver at whatever their other event is. J/C (2nd=13) could make it with a gold or silver at NHK. Yulia (2nd + 6th = 18) is probably out. Max (1st + 7th = 18) is probably out as well. S/B (3rd + 3rd = 22) could make it but will likely be alternates.

That's all assuming they end up using TEB SP standings.

 

[tulosai]

I'm gonna withhold from posting my analysis on this until what's happening is actually confirmed...

 

[Ice Dance]

P/Z (3rd = 11) could make it with a win at whatever their other event is.

P&Z's other event is in Russia. Yeah. Tough, tough draw. I thought they would make it anyway, but I wasn't counting on them having only one portion of the first competition. It's not impossible, but they really could have used a top two finish at TEB.

 

[solar]

P&Z's other event is in Russia. Yeah. Tough, tough draw. I thought they would make it anyway, but I wasn't counting on them having only one portion of the first competition. It's not impossible, but they really could have used a top two finish at TEB.

Yeah, they're another team that would suffer from only using SP scores. As well as having TEB and COR, two events right in a row.

 

[wokulski]

Yes, and I heard that Tarasova lobbied a lot to have CoR at CSKA rink because Adelina gets there the highest pcs irrespective of the tech panel and judge combination.

Dont be so smart.
The rink doesnt matter .Dont you remember the last competiton she was in?

 

[[email protected]]

I remember, why not? She was in Mordovian Ornament and got 36 pcs which is quite fair vs. Gracy's 34 at TEB. The notion "she is afraid" is ridiculous as being completely unfounded. We all know the phrase about haters, though.

Just 2 points:
1. Adelina is not afraid of international competitions. Her first competition after the injury was Japan Open.
2. She had superior to Gracy pcs at JO. Then even if we see some inflation in Saransk it is not essential if we believe in Gracy's pcs at TEB. OK, not 36 but 35. Will it make a major bang? By no means.

...I am out of this discussion.

 

[wokulski]

I remember, why not? She was in Mordovian Ornament and got 36 pcs which is quite fair vs. Gracy's 34 at TEB. The notion "she is afraid" is ridiculous as being completely unfounded. We all know the phrase about haters, though.

Just 2 points:
1. Adelina is not afraid of international competitions. Her first competition after the injury was Japan Open.
2. She had superior to Gracy pcs at JO. Then even if we see some inflation in Saransk it is not essential if we believe in Gracy's pcs at TEB. OK, not 36 but 35. Will it make a major bang? By no means.

...I am out of this discussion.

Japan Open is a TEAM competition,not individual. It's ridiculous to compare them.
In Mordovian Open she was overscored ,no doubt about that(i believe you havent forgotten that they didnt notice her mistakes,underotations etc) and giving her over 36 PCs is just piteous . There were some morons who gave her 9.75 for chopreography or interpretation and 9.50 for SS.:hslap: Did they think its Olympic games?

 

[Sugarpova]

"Adelina is afraid"
lmao that was funny
funnier than Gracie's TEB PCS actually