2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[princessalica]

And when she withdrew from her Grand Prix assignments a month ago she said she wasn’t ready. She didn’t say she was retired or even that she wasn’t training. She said she wasn’t going to be able to compete at the level she wanted to.

 

[mrrice]

I prefer not. She should recover privately and at her on pace. She'll inform us how she's doing when she's ready.

I'm sorry if I seem insensitive. I want what ever is best for Gracie. I am going to Nationals this year as they are in San Jose. I am very excited to see all the Ladies and I haven't seen Gracie in person since she was a big jumping junior back in 2011. I'd be happy to see her even if she wasn't skating and I saw her in line for coffee. Whether or not she competes is not nearly as important as her health. I'll be her fan for years to come.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

I really like Bradie and I also like Angela Wang who is continually left off of prediction lists. When you add Courtney Hicks to the mix I think the race for the podium could be very tight. Unlike our Men who are, IMO, deep as the ocean. Our ladies are not in the same boat. I don't love her programs but, I still think Karen Chen is the skater to beat. If I were on the committee, I'd say whoever delivers at Nationals is on the team...Period!

Speaking of that. Is Gracie Gold Retired? She and her team have been radio silent for months.

Angela is never on anyone’s predictions list because she always always ALWAYS takes herself out of the running. She falters more than any of our top US ladies. But still, a very talented skater.

 

[R.D.]

Angela is never on anyone’s predictions list because she always always ALWAYS takes herself out of the running. She falters more than any of our top US ladies.

I'd argue Hicks is a similar deal, except limited mainly to US Nationals. That's why I've discounted her, even if she somehow stays upright this time around, does she have the confidence of the Federation to be chosen, especially for the Team event?

And when [Gold] withdrew from her Grand Prix assignments a month ago she said she wasn’t ready. She didn’t say she was retired or even that she wasn’t training. She said she wasn’t going to be able to compete at the level she wanted to.

Until I hear otherwise I'll just assume she's done. What she described sounded like serious stuff, the type of stuff that ends careers anyway.

There is no basis to put Mirai on the team if she finishes off the podium. She has a good Tier II result (4CC) but whoever finishes ahead of her at Nationals will have a better Tier I result. Mirai also has other Tier II GP results (4th and 9th) that probably neither hurt her nor help her.

Depends on who beats her, TBH - if it's Wagner, Chen and say, Bell in the top 3, probably not. But, if someone like Caroline Zhang sneaks in there, I totally think an argument could be made in favor of Nagasu over her.

Unless Ashley does something special at Skate America and the GPF, there is no basis to put her on the team without a Nationals medal, either. There's also the question of whether the USFSA would give her a second Olympic berth despite her never having earned the spot at Nationals, assuming she finishes off the podium.

I agree with the first part - but I do think that if the Committee sees a justifiable case to put Wagner on the team in an OTP situation (again, see the Nagasu scenario above), they'll do it again.

 

[NAOTMAA]

There are around 7 girls that are in one way or another in contention to be on the Olympic team. Perhaps there are more but these 7 are getting the most attention, at least here

1. Courtney Hicks: always does better at the GP then at nationals, she always bombs there. And even if she has improved in the artistry area I have yet to see evidence that the USFSA is really behind her. With her past GP success they could have given her SA since she had only 1 GP assignment this season but passed her over. Perhaps she can break her nationals bad luck and perform there as she does on the GP so we'll just have to wait and see.
2. Mirai: has every season shown to be a roller coaster of good and bad at the GP. She does poor the first event and much better the second and heads into nationals with optimism only to usually chock when the chips are really down. So far the script is the same. Can she change her luck at nationals for the first time in four years?
3. Karen Chen: so prepared this season she dumped her LP and started from scratch. And regardless of what program she's skating to she's been nothing but lackluster. It's been nothing but downhill since last year's break though. Expectations have been high and it was believed on the off season that she was going to consolidate herself as the new #1 with Gracie out of the picture. Instead she has done nothing but made herself more vulnerable. She can easily turn it around but she must start doing it asap starting at SA
4. Ashley: the most consistent nationals and international record. But she seems so determined to not repeat 2014 it could end up happening regardless of all her willpower and determination. After all sometimes when you try to force something the opposite happens. And for the last season and half she hasn't exactly lit the ice on fire. Instead of creating a new program she's going with an old one. Her team less then confident about making something new decided to go with past glories. She needs to start putting her foot to the peddle at SA or she puts even more pressure on herself at nationals. Her worlds silver seems like ancient history and she won't have the "body of work" to prop herself up as she did in 2014
5. Mariah: flat out inconsistent no matter where she is. She had a great SA last year and a great LP at last nationals but after that, what? Still her score at her one GP event was pretty good even though she was messy. She definitely remains a dark horse and doesn't have the extra pressure that Ashley, Mirai or Karen are likely facing so that should help her.
6. Bradie: has definitely shown to be the most ready so far this season. SA will definitely be a test for her and the USFSA making her the host pick shows their interested in her. If anything she has the most going for her because she has the most clean slate. She can do exactly what Polina herself did in 2014, its certainly within the realm of possibility.
7. Polina: Who knows. She needs to show improvement at TB and still keep improving but that's all easier said then done in such a short period of time. Coming back from injury isn't easy for any skater. Still with the other girls so inconsistent she can't be completely dismissed just yet. It's a long shot though.

 

[Ice Dance]

1. Courtney Hicks:With her past GP success they could have given her SA since she had only 1 GP assignment this season but passed her over.

USFSA didn't pass her over. Bradie had the higher summer score and defeated Courtney head-to-head in competition. USFSA selected the man, lady, and pair with the highest summer score as the host athletes. They didn't select the dance team with the highest summer score, but the Parsons won last year's Junior Worlds, which gave them a very big title directly before heading into this season. None of the ladies in the running for the host spot won a huge international event so they fought it out in summer competitions.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

1. Courtney Hicks: always does better at the GP then at nationals, she always bombs there. And even if she has improved in the artistry area I have yet to see evidence that the USFSA is really behind her. With her past GP success they could have given her SA since she had only 1 GP assignment this season but passed her over. Perhaps she can break her nationals bad luck and perform there as she does on the GP so we'll just have to wait and see.

Courtney has to do more to help herself. She isn't going to be able to make multiple major errors and get saved by PCS like some other skaters do. Because the National judges aren't as hard on edge and rotation calls, her competitors score more points than they would internationally by avoiding these deductions. She needs two near-perfect programs to make the team.

 

[loopy1217]

I would go with Karen over Bradie anyday. And I see USFSA doing the same, unless Karen really bombs at SA and/or Nationals.

So what will happened if Karen perform in SA but bomb the National (4-6 th place). She already had something in tier1 but that might be override by Bradie top 3 finish?

 

[ask]

So what will happened if Karen perform in SA but bomb the National (4-6 th place). She already had something in tier1 but that might be override by Bradie top 3 finish?

If Bradie is 3rd and Karen is 4th, I don't see Bradie going. If Bradie is 2nd, and Karen is 6th, maybe.

 

[R.D.]

I think Chen would need to be top 3 at Nationals unless some newbie or B-level skater stuns everyone and lands in the top 3. Then, Chen’s “body of work” could put her on the team. I’d say this would only apply if she medals at SA (or better yet, wins SA) and is no lower than 4th at the Nats.

 

[NAOTMAA]

When Ashley was given the benefit of doubt after placing 4th at nationals in 2014 it was because she was without doubt for a whole entire quad the great flag waver of American ladies. The sole bright spot in a sea of complete darkness. And until Gracie came, during the second half of the quad, she single handily carried the whole legacy of US ladies skating on her back. Without her it would have been a unimaginable disaster of epic proportions that makes all the gloom people profess the last decade to be look like a golden age.

Nancy Kerrigan was given her spot in 1994, not just because of the circumstances that took her out of nationals, but because she was without question the top American lady. She was the only one who had a realistic shot for the podium. Michelle Kwan was granted a spot in 2006, despite injury and not competing for a majority of the season, because her enormous legacy spoke for itself.

I don't know any other examples for the ladies but for the three mentioned above they were no brainers. Karen doesn't come close to being what the three above were. In 2 1/2 seasons as a senior Karen's only real bright spots were last year's nationals and worlds (fourth is impressive but there is no medal). Other then that she only has three bronze medals at senior B events. She has tons of promise and potential but her other events have not been impressive. Her only chance for using the "body of work" rule is as R.D. pointed out is if she is beaten by a newbie novice or a second/third rate skater who has the competition of a lifetime. She needs to be top 3

 

[skylark]

At every competition, you can say that so-and-so only did well because so-and-so was sick, tired, injured, having a bad day, missed their flight connection the day before, etc. Its ridiculous.

And yet, there are only certain skaters who get discounted and dismissed with such statements. Others get a free pass.

When has Ashley ever said she's relying on others to make mistakes in order to make a podium? Its the last thing on her mind heading into a competition. She's certainly not relying on this as a strategy. If anything, its only people on here who seem to suggest that that's her strategy.

People are always insinuating lies like this about Ashley. Others diminish their evaluations of her based on those lies, then repeat them. So the cycle goes round and round, with more people joining the bashing machine. And then people start bashing her for saying she's in it to try for the win.

 

[R.D.]

Update: P. Edmunds currently in 9th after France SP (56.31, 6 pts from top 6, 13 pts from lead).

No surprises here.

 

[mrrice]

Update: Edmunds currently in 9th after France SP (56.31, 6 pts from top 6, 13 pts from lead).

No surprises here.

Well, I'm surprised as she was my wildcard to medal in her hometown at nationals. I feel sorry for her and can only hope she will pull herself up in the Free Program. What happened to Tuk?? She's in last place....The US Ladies are more unpredictable than they've ever been....None of them are wowing the judges and I think a youngster might just upset all the Veterans and win Nationals this year. This would be great year for Angela Wang to have the skate of her life. With all of her talent, experience, and great coaching, this could be her best opportunity to finally make the podium. Courtney Hicks is in 3rd following the SP in Warsaw ......The door is certainly open if you can hold it together at Nationals, you could be an Olympian.

 

[frida80]

Well, I'm surprised as she was my wildcard to medal in her hometown at nationals. I feel sorry for her and can only hope she will pull herself up in the Free Program. What happened to Tuk?? She's in last place....The US Ladies are more unpredictable than they've ever been....None of them wowing the judges and I think a youngster might just upset all the Veterans and win Nationals this year.

Liza decided to put a 3A in her SP. She fell on it, but it was rotated. Then she popped her Lutz. Then doubled her second 3T. It was pretty bad.

 

[R.D.]

An Edmunds top 3 finish at Nationals is not impossible - especially considering the inconsistencies of the other US girls - but I would be hesitant to bet on it. Why? Her focus is not fully on skating - she’s also in college, she may even be taking a full load.

What happened to Tuk?? She's in last place....

Botched 3A attempt/whole program fell apart. To tie this back to the Americans, this is precisely the risk that Nagasu is taking by going for the 3A in the SP - and to be honest, any tangible reward for her landing it has been questionable thus far - but if it goes wrong, it could be disastrous for her. Imagine if the same thing were to happen to Nagasu during her Nationals SP??? It’ll be over before she even gets started. Having said all that, even without it she’s had near-disasters at Nationals in the past...

 

[frida80]

An Edmunds top 3 finish at Nationals is not impossible - especially considering the inconsistencies of the other US girls - but I would be hesitant to bet on it. Why? Her focus is not fully on skating - she’s also in college, she may even be taking a full load.



Botched 3A attempt/whole program fell apart. To tie this back to the Americans, this is the risk that Nagasu is taking by going for the 3A in the SP - and to be honest, any tangible reward for her has been questionable thus far - but if it goes wrong, it could be disastrous for her. Imagine if the same thing were to happen to Nagasu during her Nationals SP??? It’ll be over before she even gets started. Having said all that, even without it she’s had near-disasters at Nationals in the past...

There’s a big difference on how Liz approached the 3A and Mirai. Mirai has trained all season with her jump in the SP. she kicked off the season in July with her attempting her 3A in her SP. Then she went on tour in Japan and did her SP in exhibition with her 3A. She came back and did it at Champs camp and then again at Kristi’s show. Long before she started to compete in September, she had gotten used to her new SP layout. It hasn’t gone smoothly, but I’ve seen a lot of improvement since Skate Detroit. She’s less likely to bomb, because she’s learned how to control her nerves when it comes to the 3A.

With Liza it’s different. She competed with a completely different layout all season. Suddenly she throws in a 3A in her short two weeks after skating with a completely different layout. She doomed to be off this competition. If she was going for the 3A in her short and long, she should’ve had it ready earlier and put it in her program at the start of the season.

 

[Puchi]

this is precisely the risk that Nagasu is taking by going for the 3A in the SP - and to be honest, any tangible reward for her landing it has been questionable thus far - but if it goes wrong, it could be disastrous for her. Imagine if the same thing were to happen to Nagasu during her Nationals SP??? It’ll be over before she even gets started.

High-risk, high-reward. If she manages to skate a cleanish short with just a decent, borderline 3axel, she'll get full credit and would enter the LP with a nice cushion.

 

[labgoat]

I know you should not compare across events, but these results are similar...
Courtney Hicks 58.43 at Warsaw
Polina Edmunds 56.31 at IdFrance

 

[frida80]

I know you should not compare across events, but these results are similar...
Courtney Hicks 58.43 at Warsaw
Polina Edmunds 56.31 at IdFrance

Courtney popped her solo jump. But her combo got full credit.

Polina looked much better here than Finlandia. Only a < on her +3T with a step out.