If it were up to the US federation, it would Sotnikova Tennell's PCS components up to a Gold medal if it were possible.
2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating
- Thread starter R.D.
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If it were up to the US federation, it would Sotnikova Tennell's PCS components up to a Gold medal if it were possible.
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I can't find it now, but there was a quote on Twitter from the USFS stating that participation in the team event was a strategic decision and they would not be revealing it (this was in reference to ID, but probably applicable to all the disciplines).
IIRC, Jason's skate of the LP in the team event at Sochi was not announced until the day before the LP.
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Except it’s not up to them, and the international judges will be like, sending her PCS crashing back into reality.
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The ONLY way Bradie medals at Olympics is if we have one of the messiest women's events in Olympic history. She has to get through Evgenia(with a injury but still highly likely to get ott scores regardless of what she puts out)Alina( can and most likely will backload all of these girls in to an early grave)Maria(just as uncharismatic and bland as Bradie but the judges seem to be behind her), Satoko, Karoi(who both have already beaten her in her home gp), Katelyn(will bury Bradie in sp alone) Gabby(if she's on-more powerful jumps and a more engaging performer) and Carolina(can beat any of the us girls with no triple triple on pcs alone). She also could get beat by Mirai if she somehow pulls out clean triple axels and has the skates of her life. US fed was really trying it this weekend to make her pcs and tech seem like it could take on the rest of the world but if you've been paying attention at all this season its obviously just not reality.
She will break 70 as US number one. Her PCS at Skate America was 29+; I expect it to be 33+ at the Olympics with a clean program. She will also get higher GOE thrown at her. A clean short at the Olys will be about 72.
I agree it would have to be a messy event for Bradie to medal, but remember that Bradie outscored all the other American women internationally this season. It was the *international* judges that pretty much sent a message to the US that Bradie was the kind of skater with the kind of choreography they wanted. She cleared 200 points internationally without the full backing of the US fed.
Mirai doesn't have the non-jump choreography to medal.
Mirai doesn't have the non-jump choreography to medal.
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Sounds great!! If she can improve her basic fluidity and utilize her SS to increase her PCS across the board with more dynamic skating she’ll start to put some serious numbers in a year or two. She just needs to hold on to that jump consistency. That will be her key to opening the doors in front of her.
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I don't think she will medal, because as aforementioned, she has like zero international reputation and that will probably work against her. Plus like you said, it would take an extraordinary alignment of the stars for her moment to materialize (although to be fair, that kinda already happened with the way she snatched Nationals). But I think she could definitely get into the top 10 easy. The only obstacle I see there (assuming Bradie doesn't just bomb) is if the hometown skaters bring it and go lights out. Da Bin Choi comes to mind. But even then, I still think Bradie is top 10. She's not like this ugly amateur everyone is making her out to be. Granted, I did not like her performances here, I'll be very honest. I found that her actual skating itself just did not engage me at all. Yet, I can't deny the fact that the potential is there. Not sure what it is, maybe the sheer guts of it all, but she really created a moment that in the end, even I could not avoid getting caught up in. She definitely deserved to make the team, 200%, and not just for what she laid down at Nationals, but also for how she took every minuscule opportunity offered her this season and made the impossible dream come true. She had like no chance in hell, no pre-Olympics promos, no major sponsors, no intricately produced hype videos showing the making of her programs, none of that bs. And still she went out there and simply willed her way onto that team. It really embodies what the Olympics are all about, and is very inspiring.
I do hate the free program, but she does the best she can with...that, and there's still some time to polish it up. A change of costume would be a nice start, but I get it. She's Cinderella (literally
) and it's not offensive so let her be I guess. Her short is a beautiful piece that has a lot of potential especially considering where she will be performing it. Honestly, all she has to do is stop looking like she's trying to remember to breathe the whole time, and just enjoy the moment. You can literally see her thinking about every single second of the program as she's skating. The U.S. crown will be a weight on her shoulders for sure, but I think she shouldn't worry too much about it. It makes no difference in a field where she really isn't vying for a medal. She has the jumps down, just needs to focus on becoming a little less robotic, and bam. I think she can probably beat the Japanese girls (a couple of mistakes would help), Mirai sans 3A, and the other Canadian, Gabby (sorry forgot her last name, but I know it's not Douglas). She's not medalling here, but a couple of solid performances will set her up for the future, and maybe we'll finally have a competitive, and above all, consistent lady.
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I do agree that Bradie does have potential. She is already solid with her jumps so she need to work on her presentation a lot more. She can get a different choreographer and costumes. Right now, she reminds me of a Librarian. Very plain and boring. She doesn't appeal to many people.
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I disagree that librarians are plain and boring.
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lol.
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Um, yeah they are. Librarians are literally the definition of plain and bor—
Well...I stand corrected.
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Bradie can definitely beat Kaori, and maybe Satoko if she gets lots of URs. From there, she'll have to rely on Osmond/Kostner/Sotskova bombing, which is unlikely (all three of them that is).
Bradie's interpretation and SS aren't outstanding, but her P/E score and transitions scores could be high if the judges judge according to what they see and not on the basis of reputation. It behooves the US to trot her out for both programs in the team event, because the PCS will only escalate from there on out and the odds are already against her in the SP because her world ranking is low and she'll be skating super early. She has a sliver of a chance of making the final group, but it's a chance.
[Edit: Hmm... I actually just calculated her probable scores based on clean skates and they were all 71-72 range... That probably won't be enough...]
Mirai has the highest chance to make the final group. With the 3A, her BV is so high that a clean performance can net her 75-77, even if her PCS are only ~31. We could ostensibly see a situation where Mirai is 2nd-4th after the SP, but she'll drop significantly after the FS even if it's clean because of components and likelier issues there.
Bradie's interpretation and SS aren't outstanding, but her P/E score and transitions scores could be high if the judges judge according to what they see and not on the basis of reputation. It behooves the US to trot her out for both programs in the team event, because the PCS will only escalate from there on out and the odds are already against her in the SP because her world ranking is low and she'll be skating super early. She has a sliver of a chance of making the final group, but it's a chance.
[Edit: Hmm... I actually just calculated her probable scores based on clean skates and they were all 71-72 range... That probably won't be enough...]
Mirai has the highest chance to make the final group. With the 3A, her BV is so high that a clean performance can net her 75-77, even if her PCS are only ~31. We could ostensibly see a situation where Mirai is 2nd-4th after the SP, but she'll drop significantly after the FS even if it's clean because of components and likelier issues there.
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The tech panel at Olympic will be the same tech panel at SA... if you think they will give Satoko UR... think again.
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Satoko will not get URs. She's Japan's #1, it's Olympics - Not going to happen for anything that's not completely blatant.
Bradie will likely not beat at least these skaters if they skate as expected:
Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova, Kostner, Osmond, Satoko, Kaori
It's a shame. I actually don't think Bradie's worse than Kaori. Her footwork is more complicated and while they're not the smoothest or most aesthetically pleasant, at least she attempts some transitions and moderately difficult footwork, while Kaori's is at a 7-year-old's level. Considering Satoko's URs and huge pre-rotation, I also wouldn't mind seeing Bradie beating her assuming Satoko skates one of her usual skates(But that's not going to happen, I know). While I assume it'll be a done deal between Bradie and Kaori, I would prefer it if the better skater that day actually got the higher score.
On Osmond and Kostner, they will be held up no matter how many times they would fall or pop and that's completely hopeless unless they REALLY skate horribly. But hey, you never know. Remember last season's worlds? Bradie could likely have come 4th there, it was such a mess. Skating clean can be very important in a high pressure situation.
Bradie will likely not beat at least these skaters if they skate as expected:
Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova, Kostner, Osmond, Satoko, Kaori
It's a shame. I actually don't think Bradie's worse than Kaori. Her footwork is more complicated and while they're not the smoothest or most aesthetically pleasant, at least she attempts some transitions and moderately difficult footwork, while Kaori's is at a 7-year-old's level. Considering Satoko's URs and huge pre-rotation, I also wouldn't mind seeing Bradie beating her assuming Satoko skates one of her usual skates(But that's not going to happen, I know). While I assume it'll be a done deal between Bradie and Kaori, I would prefer it if the better skater that day actually got the higher score.
On Osmond and Kostner, they will be held up no matter how many times they would fall or pop and that's completely hopeless unless they REALLY skate horribly. But hey, you never know. Remember last season's worlds? Bradie could likely have come 4th there, it was such a mess. Skating clean can be very important in a high pressure situation.
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I think the danger with Bradie is that most of her appeal comes from her consistency. If she has a bad night in either the team event or the individual competition, that image is broken and she isn't left with much.
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Well the US ladies who can’t do the technical stuff first and foremost haven’t been exactly running away with events either. Even Gracie (who was saved countless times) couldn’t really overcome her mistakes at the big international events. This consistency first mentality is a step in the right direction for the US federation.
I kind of think just showing up and sassing around with inconsistent technical ability shouldn’t be very well rewarded. Bradie on the other hand can be a great asset to us. She can set the technical bar high finally for girls to strive to and as they do..they’ll have to raise the level of presentation to pass her. The other way hadn’t been working and dear lord...the music selection and just overall low quality of skating in US Ladies skating is concerning. At least based on US Nats this season...I’m very concerned and uninspired. We are really far behind Japan and Russia but Bradie isn’t
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It may be a tall order to enhance PCS significantly and grind it into muscle memory by the Olympics.
About the costume topic, that would be do-able quite quickly, I would imagine. I was thinking that Bradie would be a more mature seniorish skater just by changing costumes in the long. Absolutely, get rid of the crown. But couldn’t she get rid of the baby blue, find a more regal color, and pass for an exceptional princess? She could look at Princess Diaries and get all kinds of ideas for cut and color and still be in Disney-compatible territory.
(PS Princess Diaries #1 is a great storyline for Bradie’s current situation. Suddenly finding yourself in a very elevated position and stepping up your whole being to go along with the new status.)
It also might be worth looking at the ombre effect of, e.g. Knierim, which can look stunning though simple. This is the “less is more” approach.
I do like the color of Bradie’s SP dress; it’s stunning against her skin and pops well off the ice. I even like the creative positioning of the standard curlicue plaque. However, an Olympian and top-ranked US skater could maybe have a more wowee, even though understated, costume for the SP, too.
I also think we need to be careful here in two respects.
One, there’s so much emphasis on designer costumes in skating, that it’s become de rigueur to have one. Unfortunately, women often get evaluated for the way they look as though it reflects talent and skill. The #metoo movement should remind us that bodies and comments about bodies have historically been ways to denigrate, control, and minimize talent in women.
Two, let’s keep in mind as well that while Bradie might just like simple as a wardrobe choice, as in her SP costume, not every skater can afford jewel-bedecked costumes, let alone at the rate Karen and Ashley seemed to have gone through them this year.
To end with my comments, I think it would be nice if a well-heeled donor and a topnotch designer could step up with elegant dresses that suit the moment and that Bradie just loves to skate in. Let it be something special; this year has been an extraordinary achievement for her.
