Rescoring past competitions w/ new SOV+rules

[Ice Dance]

This is really interesting. It looks like Hanyu's world record is here to stay!

Those kind of records never stay.

 

[Shanshani]

Yuzu's 223 score at Worlds 2017 could have been higher back then. His PCS in Barcelona was nearly two points better than in Helsinki and he didn't score max. GOE on any element, so he could have finished somewhere around 228-230, if he had skated last or the judges had been in a better mood that day.

That's why I think, the 223 is still in sight for Yuzu, especially with a potential 4A and 4Lz in the bag. I'm not that sure about the rest of the field at the moment.

Oh, I remember I do actually have calcs for this. Yes, Yuzu should be able to break his Helsinki record if he can skate like he did there, but with a modest layout upgrade (4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, 4T+3T, 3A+2T, 3A+1Lo+3S).

 

[gkelly]

I think the judges' mindset will change with the new system. It's natural human tendency to play it safe and the greater the options, the greater the liklihood to fall into this trap - my guess is that judges will be pretty stingy with the extremes of the scale no matter how deserving the element may be except in cases where it is explicit like a fall.

But also, don't forget that now reductions for smaller errors can add up to a total of -5 rather than -3. So, e.g., if a jump combination a loss of flow/direction/rhythm and also has a two-foot landing on the second jump, it's likely to get -5, which will cost the skater more than the -3 in the old system. Same if the first jump of the combo is called < and the second called << . . . along with the base value reductions as well.

-4 and -5 may end up being rare for elite skaters aside from elements they fall on, but for the rank and file skaters I think that together they will be at least as common as -3 used to be.

In the first season, I'll be surprised to see many GOE's above 4 and I'm guessing even above 3.5 will be rare.

I do think it's likely that judges will avoid throwing out +4s and +5s unless they specifically can name to themselves 4 or 5 bullet points the element achieves. They may be more cautious about awarding those scores on the fly because they also need to keep track not only of how many bullet points but also whether the element earned all of the first 3 bullet points. It will probably take them a while to be able to do this in real time.
(Of course some judges might sometimes forget that last point and award a +4 if they can add up 4 bullets, an element they would have given +2 in the old system, without making sure that it has all 3 of the mandatory ones.)

On the other hand, the first bullet point for jumps now reads "very good height and very good length," so there may be jumps that a judge considers good but not very good on one or both of those measurements and therefore hesitates to award that bullet.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Thank you so much for all the hard work you put in there! Of course this isn't a one to one prediction of how those competitions' scores would have looked, but closest thing possible. Very interesting to read!

2017 Worlds
1. Yuzuru Hanyu 321.59 -> 317.47
2. Shoma Uno 319.31 -> 312.18
3. Javier Fernandez 301.19 -> 298.51 (moves from 4th to 3rd)
4. Boyang Jin 303.58 -> 296.04 (moves from 3rd to 4th)

2018 Worlds
1. Kaetlyn Osmond 223.23 -> 224.75
2. Carolina Kostner 208.88 -> 211.51 (moves from 4th to 2nd)
3. Wakaba Higuchi 210.9 -> 211.17 (moves from 2nd to 3rd)
4. Satoko Miyahara 210.08 -> 209.77 (moves from 3rd to 4th)

God am I beyond scared for all the skaters who don't get reputation candy GOE

 

[chopinskate]

Yes Kostner will enjoy this new system.

She's staying

 

[Shanshani]

Thank you so much for all the hard work you put in there! Of course this isn't a one to one prediction of how those competitions' scores would have looked, but closest thing possible. Very interesting to read!



God am I beyond scared for all the skaters who don't get reputation candy GOE

Unfortunately I think there's an unavoidable tradeoff between weighing parts of the program that require more judgment to evaluate more and making scores reputation bias-proof. If you want stuff like GOE and artistry to weigh more, that's going to come with a side of letting bias weigh more too (Though it's worth pointing out that in both the Javi case and the Carolina case, they did have very good short programs, at least.)

 

[yume]

She's staying

I knew she would stay. She couldn't decently ditch the many easy points that this system will give her.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Unfortunately I think there's an unavoidable tradeoff between weighing parts of the program that require more judgment to evaluate more and making scores reputation bias-proof. If you want stuff like GOE and artistry to weigh more, that's going to come with a side of letting bias weigh more too (Though it's worth pointing out that in both the Javi case and the Carolina case, they did have very good short programs, at least.)

Yeah, the only solution would be "good judging", but then that of course is a whole other can of worms. I generally like the idea behind many of these changes, but how they'll be used in reality is the scary part.

And since you point it out, it really makes it clear that SPs will be more of a factor now. Given they're not hit with the dropped jumping pass and stricter quad limit, it's a very straight forward consequence, but I actually never realized it like that before. Will be an advantage for good SP skaters, but maybe not good news for those who didn't like how "decided" a competition can be after the SP already :think:

 

[Izabela]

Thanks Shanshani for this analysis.

While I personally prefer quality and quantity to rule figure skating, overall, since we really don't have to kid ourselves here, this provides judges more power in stirring who will podium in the end, and more incentive for feds to flex their muscle into at least hoping that their skaters will get those medals. I mean, theoretically, it is a good system for me. But what good is a system with a *dysfunctional* judging panel, who not only give GOE scores like candies, but who probably (see, I'm still hedging!) relies on corridor scoring on PCS?

:confused2:

Anyways, let's see.

 

[Shanshani]

Yeah, the only solution would be "good judging", but then that of course is a whole other can of worms. I generally like the idea behind many of these changes, but how they'll be used in reality is the scary part.

And since you point it out, it really makes it clear that SPs will be more of a factor now. Given they're not hit with the dropped jumping pass and stricter quad limit, it's a very straight forward consequence, but I actually never realized it like that before. Will be an advantage for good SP skaters, but maybe not good news for those who didn't like how "decided" a competition can be after the SP already :think:

I'll have to think more about whether this increases the importance of the SP, though intuitively it feels like it does, at least in men's (for ladies, well as much as the really biased part of me says Wakaba should have won the whole competition, she did have a pretty messy SP). I don't think anyone should say that the competition results are decided after the SP though--ice is slippery and falls are punished significantly more harshly than before.

 

[OS]

Heh -- can we redo with Sochi Ladies with new GOE + 67% than before J.K...

One thing about men is that there's now 30 seconds less in the FS, I am wondering how is that going to impact Men's choreography and PCS, particularly stamina issues with Hanyu's Seimei, which definitely have been shaped with slow burn early to midsection before the epic jumping drill that builds and build. It may also force Nathan to have shorter set up time and therefore smaller jumps... I really detest these rule changes that mess up the sport so much particularly the freedom to express. Men's program may all ends up looking like Team Eteri's in the end. Maybe that is the agenda in the Lakernik lead ISU... if you really think about it, the new rules will bring all the contender's TES closer together - closer to Kolyada in TES base, who may get boost PCS and GOE for monster Quad Lz and Toe (when he lands them.)

These rules changes look kind of ridiculous as it clearly makes it easier for the fed judges to determine to rankings. I bet there will get a different set of rules votes if all the skaters get to have representation, rather than the feds.

 

[yume]

Heh -- can we redo with Sochi Ladies with new GOE + 67% than before J.K...
.

Do you want fire?

 

[TGee]

Huge thanks to you Shanshani for the thought experiment and analysis.

Judging quality concerns notwithstanding, these changes appear to favour Brian Orser's recommended strategy to go for increased GOE over a new element with a higher BV.

He's discussed how this is the strategy the TCC team went for with Javi.

With Yuzu, Brian noted that he wasn't convinced that adding the 4Lo was a priority, but Brian also has the philosophy of letting elite seniors set their own goals.

And Yuzu really is the unique one, or the great one (to borrow from hockey) to whom the usual rules do not apply...

 

[ladyjane]

Thank you so much Shanshani. This was insightful, whatever the limitations of the methodology. That will always be the case in such an exercise, but the results are still revealing and interesting. I was wondering whether you could do a similar exercise on Pairs? Obviously this would be slightly different as it's spins that will be missing in the free, but still...
as a major fan of pairs I'm really interested in the outcome.

 

[yume]

And Yuzu really is the unique one, or the great one (to borrow from hockey) to whom the usual rules do not apply...

Yes

Will not be a surprise if he break the new SOV as he did with the old system. If 2015 NHK and GPF didn't happen, maybe we wouldn't have this new mess. Other skaters wouldn't have try to catch him with multiples and hard quads. And ISU wouldn't have panicked

 

[TallyT]

Those kind of records never stay.

Someone is going to have to come up with the next, post-quad revolution to crack the long, short or combined, I suspect.... how long has it actually been since anyone but Yuzu did it? Patrick Chan in 201... something?

 

[Colonel Green]

Someone is going to have to come up with the next, post-quad revolution to crack the long, short or combined, I suspect.... how long has it actually been since anyone but Yuzu did it? Patrick Chan in 201... something?

Chiddy set all three world records at the 2013 French Grand Prix event. The short program record lasted barely a month until Yuzu broke it at the 2013 Grand Prix Final (and it's been his ever since), but the long program and total score records lasted until the 2015 NHK Trophy.

 

[TallyT]

I really detest these rule changes that mess up the sport so much particularly the freedom to express. Men's program may all ends up looking like Team Eteri's in the end.

Maybe some of them, but we need to wait and see, it's not only the men themselves who may be able to push through, at the minute, from what I gather, we have some of the best choreographers ever working with them, so while it'll be a challenge...

 

[TallyT]

Chiddy set all three world records at the 2013 French Grand Prix event. The short program record lasted barely a month until Yuzu broke it at the 2013 Grand Prix Final (and it's been his ever since), but the long program and total score records lasted until the 2015 NHK Trophy.

Thank you! I'm very inexpert but thought it was pre-2014 Olympics.

So two skaters, who are both known for their skating skills and GOEs, as well as tech in Yuzu's case, have held onto the top WR spot for what, five years now? And the new rules seem to favour GOE strengths?

This could be interesting.

 

[Colonel Green]

Thank you! I'm very inexpert but thought it was pre-Olympics.

So two skaters, who are both known for their skating skills and GOEs, as well as tech in Yuzu's case, have held onto the top WR spot for what, five years now? And the new rules seem to favour GOE strengths?

This could be interesting.

In Chan's case, he'd set world records earlier, back in 2011. 2013 TEB was the last time he upped his record.

The last time anybody other than Chan or Hanyu held a men's figure skating record was Daisuke Takahashi, who took the short program record from Chan for a couple of months in 2012 before Hanyu, Chan, and Hanyu again to the present.