Rescoring past competitions w/ new SOV+rules

[4everchan]

Thank you! I'm very inexpert but thought it was pre-Olympics.

So two skaters, who are both known for their skating skills and GOEs, as well as tech in Yuzu's case, have held onto the top WR spot for what, five years now? And the new rules seem to favour GOE strengths?

This could be interesting.

actually what made Patrick so dominant back then was his mastery of the quads... he would include 3 across both programs and most often land all of them... he was really the first skater who had such a stable quad + GOE and SS.... so I would not limit tech to Yuzu.... nobody holds the highest scores without being complete enough of a skater and as a matter of fact, TES can score higher than PCS so the the highest scorers have all been great technicians.... Patrick dominated 2011 up to Sochi... Yuzu held the highest scores after that.... and probably Nathan will now do so.

 

[TallyT]

actually what made Patrick so dominant back then was his mastery of the quads... he would include 3 across both programs and most often land all of them... he was really the first skater who had such a stable quad + GOE and SS.... so I would not limit tech to Yuzu.... nobody holds the highest scores without being complete enough of a skater and as a matter of fact, TES can score higher than PCS so the the highest scorers have all been great technicians.... Patrick dominated 2011 up to Sochi... Yuzu held the highest scores after that.... and probably Nathan will now do so.

Thank you I did say I was inexpert... and I can't even give an inexpert view of Nathan, since I've seen less than 2 minutes of him on ice (I have watched some of Patrick's and I know whenever I read about him, the first thing mentioned is the skills). I'm just trying to get my head around what the new rules will mean for someone aiming to take out Yuzu's records (well, someone who's not Yuzu!!), what side of the skating may need a tad more focus than a week ago...

 

[Interspectator]

Thank you OP for this really interesting thread. It must have taken a lot of work and time!
When reading the new rules it was hard for me to envision how they might all work together, even theoretically. This gives a good idea of what it might look like.

 

[Old Cat Lady]

Oh, I remember I do actually have calcs for this. Yes, Yuzu should be able to break his Helsinki record if he can skate like he did there, but with a modest layout upgrade (4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, 4T+3T, 3A+2T, 3A+1Lo+3S).

Am I missing any scoring rules?
Last 3 jump passes get 10% bonus
The combo/seq as a whole is judged for GOE but is calculated for only the most difficult jump
Choreo Seq is only element that does not increase/decrease by 10% per GOE step

I played around with the numbers. Upgraded the layout to 2 4L, 1 4Lz, all combos in second 1/2. Gave 9.85 for PCS across the board. Still didn't get 223.


3 Axel, 3 A/.5 l/3 sal, 4 loop/3t, 4 lz, 4 sal/2 toe, 4 toe, 4 loop - bonus given to all the combos
highest level on all Choreo seq and required spin types
+5 GOE, 9.85 PCS

Lol, corrected the math. With this ridiculous scoring and layout TES goes up to
TES: 141.24
PCS: 98.5
Total: 239.74

 

[Shanshani]

Am I missing any scoring rules?
Last 3 jump passes get 10% bonus
The combo/seq as a whole is judged for GOE but is calculated for only the most difficult jump
Choreo Seq is only element that does not increase/decrease by 10% per GOE step

I played around with the numbers. Upgraded the layout to 2 4L, 1 4Lz, all combos in second 1/2. Gave 9.85 for PCS across the board. Still didn't get 223.

Element EV Bonus Bonus Pt added Total BV Combo Jump 2nd Jump Value Combo Bonus Combo BV GOE GOE Pts Points TES SS TR P C I PCS Total
Axel 8 1 0.8 8.8 toe 4.2 0.42 4.62 5 4.4 17.82 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 98.5 221.92
4 L 10.5 0 10.5 0 0 5 5.25 15.75 15.75
4 L 9.7 1 0.97 10.67 L/Sal 4.8 0.48 5.28 5 5.335 21.285 37.035
4 Sal 9.7 1 0.97 10.67 toe 1.3 0.13 1.43 5 5.335 17.435 54.47
4 T 9.5 0 9.5 0 0 5 4.75 14.25 68.72
Axel 8 0 8 0 0 5 4 12 80.72
4 Lz 11.5 0 11.5 0 0 5 5.75 17.25 97.97
Combo Sp 3.5 0 3.5 5 1.75 5.25 103.22
Fl Spin 3.2 0 3.2 5 1.6 4.8 108.02
1 Pos Sp 2.7 0 2.7 5 1.35 4.05 112.07
StSeq 3.9 0 3.9 5 1.95 5.85 117.92
ChSeq 3 0 3 5 1.5 5.5 123.42

I don't think the first 3A+3T combo got properly added to the TES. The running sum seems to start with the 4Lo.

 

[Old Cat Lady]

I don't think the first 3A+3T combo got properly added to the TES. The running sum seems to start with the 4Lo.

You're right. Will edit above post. Thanks!

 

[Shanshani]

actually what made Patrick so dominant back then was his mastery of the quads... he would include 3 across both programs and most often land all of them... he was really the first skater who had such a stable quad + GOE and SS.... so I would not limit tech to Yuzu.... nobody holds the highest scores without being complete enough of a skater and as a matter of fact, TES can score higher than PCS so the the highest scorers have all been great technicians.... Patrick dominated 2011 up to Sochi... Yuzu held the highest scores after that.... and probably Nathan will now do so.

Under the new system, Nathan will need to increase his grades of execution significantly in order to break records (he is after all losing a jumping pass and facing a BV nerf). Under my rescore, his personal best falls to 4th highest among the top skaters, and is 24 points below Yuzu's world record. These rules really disadvantage BV skaters such as him, to the point where his relatively clean 2018 Worlds rescored scores are still 7 points lower than Yuzu's 2018 Oly rescored scores.

 

[oatmella]

I think it’s really too early to know how this will all play out. Maybe Yuzuru will get his 4lz back and even 4A - or maybe he won’t ... same with Nathan’s 4lo. Maybe Nathan’s 3A will be improved. We don’t know yet what layouts they will be doing either.

Also the new rules and judging may work different in reality as well.

 

[zebobes]

Another reason why Nathan’s high scores are impacted more is that he doesn’t really have a low scoring jump, compared to other skaters. At 2018 worlds, all of his jumping passes were basically worth over 10 points, so losing any jumping pass has a significant impact. I mean, his lowest value jump was a triple axel! Because of high number of quads, Nathan can spread his base value out among the jumps, where as other skaters tend to have one jump that is worth a lot less.

From his exhibitions this summer, I think Nathan has been working on improving the GOEs of his quad toe, so it will be exciting to see how he improves.

 

[Shanshani]

Thank you so much Shanshani. This was insightful, whatever the limitations of the methodology. That will always be the case in such an exercise, but the results are still revealing and interesting. I was wondering whether you could do a similar exercise on Pairs? Obviously this would be slightly different as it's spins that will be missing in the free, but still...
as a major fan of pairs I'm really interested in the outcome.

Unfortunately this already took a massive amount of time, and pairs would take even longer because unlike for singles I don't have most of the new BVs memorized and I'm not as familiar with how the pairs competition works. Sorry. I imagine the results would change in predictable ways based on the observed effects on singles. In general, the importance of execution goes up significantly, and the ability to compete based on bv goes down (though not as much compared to mens--I'd imagine the level of effect to be more on par with ladies). Since pairs is losing an element, scores will go down a bit, but since it's a spin it won't be by as much.

 

[Shanshani]

Another reason why Nathan’s high scores are impacted more is that he doesn’t really have a low scoring jump, compared to other skaters. At 2018 worlds, all of his jumping passes were basically worth over 10 points, so losing any jumping pass has a significant impact. I mean, his lowest value jump was a triple axel! Because of high number of quads, Nathan can spread his base value out among the jumps, where as other skaters tend to have one jump that is worth a lot less.

From his exhibitions this summer, I think Nathan has been working on improving the GOEs of his quad toe, so it will be exciting to see how he improves.

This is a good point. For the skates that I looked at, Nathan drops a 3F or 3Lz, and though some other skaters I looked at also drop a 3F, there are also a lot of 3Los and 3Ss (and for lower, scoring skaters, even 2As) being dropped (though Nathan's lowest scoring jumping pass was a triple axel, I imagine he'd probably drop the 3F and tack the combination onto something else, which is what my model has him doing). Therefore Nathan will lose a little more on average than other skaters from dropping the lowest scoring jumping pass, though I don't think the effect is as pronounced as you're suggesting.

It's good the hear Nathan is trying to improve his GOEs! That's definitely going to be very important moving forward.

I think it’s really too early to know how this will all play out. Maybe Yuzuru will get his 4lz back and even 4A - or maybe he won’t ... same with Nathan’s 4lo. Maybe Nathan’s 3A will be improved. We don’t know yet what layouts they will be doing either.

Also the new rules and judging may work different in reality as well.

That's true, but we can have an idea of how the new rules will impact certain kinds of programs by seeing how past programs might have been evaluated under the new rules. Even if we don't know what skaters will be up to next season, we can look at past seasons to see how they might fare under the new system, as well as what kinds of strategies will become more effective and what kinds of strategies less.

 

[century2009]

Another reason why Nathan’s high scores are impacted more is that he doesn’t really have a low scoring jump, compared to other skaters. At 2018 worlds, all of his jumping passes were basically worth over 10 points, so losing any jumping pass has a significant impact. I mean, his lowest value jump was a triple axel! Because of high number of quads, Nathan can spread his base value out among the jumps, where as other skaters tend to have one jump that is worth a lot less.

From his exhibitions this summer, I think Nathan has been working on improving the GOEs of his quad toe, so it will be exciting to see how he improves.

Which is crazy that the axel is the lowest scoring jump when it is one of the highest for most guys! It will be interesting to see what Nathan does (as well as others), but yes, it does feel he is getting more solid with his jumps with high +GOEs and consistent. Hope he will balance his skating and Yale well because he is a great competitor for the sport!

The judges and how they will score in the new system is one of the biggest unpredictable aspects to this.

I do think the judges will be "experimenting" next season to see how to play the higher GOE game with the top skaters across all disciplines.

It feels like we are moving backwards towards the bias and controversy of the 6.0 system.

After this coming "experimenting" season. I do think more rules will be created the next following season to adjust things again.

 

[chopinskate]

For the skates that I looked at, Nathan drops a 3F or 3Lz

Why does he drop a 3F? I don't remember his layout for his 6 quad free skates. If he does a 3Lz-1Lo-3F, then he would be dropping the 3Lz, not the -3F.

And he wouldn't be dropping a 3A from the 6 quad FS. A 3A is mandatory, and I think he did only one of them there.

 

[Shanshani]

Why does he drop a 3F? I don't remember his layout for his 6 quad free skates. If he does a 3Lz-1Lo-3F, then he would be dropping the 3Lz, not the -3F.

And he wouldn't be dropping a 3A from the 6 quad FS. A 3A is mandatory, and I think he did only one of them there.

Nathan does 3F-1Lo-3S, not 3Lz-1Lo-3F. In 2016-2017, he did 3Lz-2T-2Lo.

 

[chopinskate]

Nathan does 3F-1Lo-3S, not 3Lz-1Lo-3F. In 2016-2017, he did 3Lz-2T-2Lo.

Great. He'll necessarily have to keep a 3A (or maybe the rule's just "an axel type jump", which could mean the 2A, but 3A for BV), so this:

though Nathan's lowest scoring jumping pass was a triple axel, I imagine he'd probably drop the 3F and tack the combination onto something else, which is what my model has him doing

doesn't really need imagination, because he will be doing a 3A-1Lo-3S, let's say, to fulfill the requirements.

Hmm, in saying that, if his 3A is unstable, and it's just an axel-type jump that's needed, I wonder if he would try to do a +5 quality 2A. Slightly more than a 3A fall.

 

[Shanshani]

Great. He'll necessarily have to keep a 3A (or maybe the rule's just "an axel type jump", which could mean the 2A, but 3A for BV), so this:



doesn't really need imagination, because he will be doing a 3A-1Lo-3S, let's say, to fulfill the requirements.

Hmm, in saying that, if his 3A is unstable, and it's just an axel-type jump that's needed, I wonder if he would try to do a +5 quality 2A. Slightly more than a 3A fall.

I don't think so. He isn't that bad at 3A, and he's gotten better at it over time. He landed it with positive GOE both times in 2018 Worlds, and in his 2018 Olys Free skate, and I don't think he can really afford to give up BV given all the nerfs he's facing.

 

[chopinskate]

I don't think so. He isn't that bad at 3A, and he's gotten better at it over time. He landed it with positive GOE both times in 2018 Worlds, and in his 2018 Olys Free skate, and I don't think he can really afford to give up BV given all the nerfs he's facing.

Not sure about this, but I don't really think he'll drop the 3A either, for the other reasons you stated.

I actually won't be shocked if he dropped the -3S, so he could do a 3Lz-1Lo-3F (or a 4T-1Lo-3F as he has supposedly done in practice), so he could do a solo 3A.

 

[lesnar001]

2018 Worlds
1. Kaetlyn Osmond 223.23 -> 224.75
2. Carolina Kostner 208.88 -> 211.51 (moves from 4th to 2nd)
3. Wakaba Higuchi 210.9 -> 211.17 (moves from 2nd to 3rd)
4. Satoko Miyahara 210.08 -> 209.77 (moves from 3rd to 4th)

No matter what scoring system is used - I hope we don't see any results like this.

I know that Carolina Kostner skated a wonderful short program and Wakaba Higuchi had problems in her SP

And I know that Satoko Miyahara fell in her long program, but given all the problems Carolina had in her LP

This result would be so wrong.

 

[chopinskate]

No matter what scoring system is used - I hope we don't see any results like this.

I know that Carolina Kostner skated a wonderful short program and Wakaba Higuchi had problems in her SP

And I know that Satoko Miyahara fell in her long program, but given all the problems Carolina had in her LP

This result would be so wrong.

Kostner was propped up even in the old system. This type of a result won't really be a problem of the new system, at all.

Yet again, it's the judging bla bla I need a macro at this point lol

 

[Tahuu]

Those kind of records never stay.

Rules have changed. Required elements have changed. SOVs have changed. Judging criteria have changed. Scoring records before and after these significant changes are not comparable. It's silly to claim X and Y hold the highest scores in skating. It's a clean slate for the skaters to set new records.