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Rescoring past competitions w/ new SOV+rules
- Thread starter Shanshani
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The 2nd quad toe in the free had very little to do if with Patrick's success. The advantage gained by a 2nd quad toe is mostly mitigated by the fact that he only did one 3 axel. There's only a 1.8 difference between a 4 toe and 3 axel whereas there's a 1.1 point difference between the 2 axel he did and the 3 salchow so he gained .7 in base value at best. In all three of his world titles, his free skates were outscored in TES by skaters who did 1 quad/two 3 axel.
It was mainly his monster PCS scores that won him his titles.
I assume since we're talking world records everyone is just referring to since IJS/COP era. But if we include 6.0 era, I would say Yagudin was the first complete skater with multiple quads. He was good at everything and his most difficult jump layout was more difficult than Patrick's most difficult layout.
Based on what I've heard of him landing, I calculated 4f/.5l/3 sal, 4lz/2 toe, 4f/3 toe, 4 loop, 4 sal, 4 toe, 3 axel, all combos in 2nd half, highest levels on all spins and steps, +3 GOE on everything, 9.5 on all pcs
PCS: 95
TES: 129.535
Total: 224.535
There's a very marginal difference in points because I calculated off a percentage rather than keying each value.
Actually, if you have the full set of quads except axel and skate clean you don't need to put the combos in back half as long as there are 3 jumps in 2nd half. If Nathan gets his loop back, improves his components, and still manages to skate clean, he can break it.
I'd put my money on Hanyu to be the next to break it since he can do it with almost the same layout he originally planned for the 2018 Olympics with GOE/PCS equivalent to what he already gets.
4 lz, 4 loop, 4 sal/2 toe, 4 Sal, 3 Axel w/bonus, 3 axel/.5 lp/3 sal w/bonus, 4 toe/3toe w/bonus, 9.75 pcs
w/4 GOE
TES: 132.87
PCS: 97.5
Total: 230.37
w/3.5 GOE
TES:128.9175
PCS:97.5
Total:226.4175
The rule changes may favour Yazuru even more than already stated.
The 'standard' combinations these days are -3T, -2T (so you don't Zayak yourself on a 3T), and either -1Lo-3S/3F if you're a multiple quad jumper, or -2T-2Lo if you're not - you're still doing 3S's and 3F's as solo jumps so don't want to Zayak yourself on these jumps by putting them in a combo.
In a 7 jumping pass world skaters will drop their lowest value jumping pass e.g. 2A through to 3Lz in the case of Vincent Zhou.
However will they be able to restore them by upgrading their -2T combo?
e.g. Yazuru's new layout under 7 jumping passes and 1 quad repetition is likely to be 4S, 4T, 4S or 4T, 3A, 3A, 3Lz, 3F, having dropped the 3Lo. Doing the -3T, -2T, -1Lo-3S combinations should present no problems, other than actually doing them, because that's what he's doing right now.
However will he be able to do a 3Lz or 3F-3Lo combination rather than a -2T one say? If so he can claw back 3.8 points, in old money, whereas for Nathan if he's doing 5 quads, 1 repeated and 2 3A's will he even be able to do the -1Lo-3S combination that he's currently doing after his 3F. Will he have to drop down to a -2T-2Lo combination for example?
In summary it's quite possible Yazuru will lose a lot less points than Nathan under the new rules, and with the +5/-5 GOE rule changes looking as if they will really favour Yazuru it could be that his old world record is still under threat, and especially if he can do a -3Lo combo, something that I imagine Nathan would have little chance of doing if he's doing 5 quads and 2 3As.
Edited - to make Yazuru 7 jumping pass layout a bit more clearer.
The 'standard' combinations these days are -3T, -2T (so you don't Zayak yourself on a 3T), and either -1Lo-3S/3F if you're a multiple quad jumper, or -2T-2Lo if you're not - you're still doing 3S's and 3F's as solo jumps so don't want to Zayak yourself on these jumps by putting them in a combo.
In a 7 jumping pass world skaters will drop their lowest value jumping pass e.g. 2A through to 3Lz in the case of Vincent Zhou.
However will they be able to restore them by upgrading their -2T combo?
e.g. Yazuru's new layout under 7 jumping passes and 1 quad repetition is likely to be 4S, 4T, 4S or 4T, 3A, 3A, 3Lz, 3F, having dropped the 3Lo. Doing the -3T, -2T, -1Lo-3S combinations should present no problems, other than actually doing them, because that's what he's doing right now.
However will he be able to do a 3Lz or 3F-3Lo combination rather than a -2T one say? If so he can claw back 3.8 points, in old money, whereas for Nathan if he's doing 5 quads, 1 repeated and 2 3A's will he even be able to do the -1Lo-3S combination that he's currently doing after his 3F. Will he have to drop down to a -2T-2Lo combination for example?
In summary it's quite possible Yazuru will lose a lot less points than Nathan under the new rules, and with the +5/-5 GOE rule changes looking as if they will really favour Yazuru it could be that his old world record is still under threat, and especially if he can do a -3Lo combo, something that I imagine Nathan would have little chance of doing if he's doing 5 quads and 2 3As.
Edited - to make Yazuru 7 jumping pass layout a bit more clearer.
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Can't. He can only repeat 1 quad. But 4 loop is likely to come back and it was pretty consistent in 2017. He doesn't even need 4 lutz to break his record.
In the event that Nathan adds a 4Lo, he should jump 3T twice instead of 2T, since he's no longer repeating any other triples. On a layout of 4Lz+3T, 4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, and a backloaded 4T+1Lo+3S, 3A+3T, and 4F with +3 GOE across the board and 92 PCS, I have him scoring 223 (well, 223.14, just shy of Yuzu's current WR--though he'd break it if he backloaded an extra combo or swapped the 3A and 4Lz). For Yuzu, a layout of 4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, and a backloaded 4S+3T, 3A+2T, 3A+1Lo+3S with 4 GOE across the board and 98 PCS, I have a total score of 230. I agree that the latter should be more achievable than the former, since the former represents a significant layout and GOE upgrade from what Nathan currently has, whereas the latter was more or less Yuzu's planned content for this season before the injury and +4 GOE would not be particularly exceptional for a clean Yuzu.
Notably, the TES is about the same for those two layouts and GOE scores (Yuzu's is slightly higher), so upgrading 1 point in GOE across the board can equalize 1 extra quad + upgrading from 2T to 3T.
Nathan hasn't done a 1Lo-3S combo on anything that wasn't his 3F as far as I remember, but I wouldn't bet against Nathan's ability to add new jumps (well, new coaching situation aside anyway). Though it's true that his jumps do often have trouble with flow outwards, so he might find combinations relatively difficult. If he wants to maximize BV he's either going to have to add the 1Lo-3S to his axel (what most top skaters do) or to one of his quads--my bet is on the 4T, since that seems to be his best one and he's working on improving his execution of it.
3Lo combinations, however, are a bit of a unicorn in men's, so I really wouldn't bet on one showing up, even if men are starting to hit a wall in terms of finding areas where they can eke out extra BV. If any of the top men can do it, it's probably Yuzu since he's good at loops/edge jumps in general, but as far as I can tell there are no indications of him working on it.
Chen will need to up his GOEs though. Because his 6 quads FS score only 1 point above Yuzu's 4 quads FS in TES.
At this state, comparing WRs accross the quads is not even longer accurate. Since scoring system changed so much.
For example i think it's a bit unfair to compare 2006-2010 and 2010-2014 scores for ladies. Someone who has a +2 GOE spiral in SP, has an advantage of 4 points on TES potential. And GOEs factoring was not the same. Not surprising that Yuna Kim's score was so hard to beat. In FS also her score had an advantage of some points on TES potential because of GOEs factoring. PCS and GOEs inflation of the last quad erased the gap.
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To be fair to Chen, this is only his 2nd year as a Senior. Given his development in GOEs and PCS in just 2 years as a Senior and breakthrough in a short time, Chen looks well position in the next season given his status as the top US man and World Champion.
I appreciate his ability to really challenge himself and others ever since being a Senior. He really proved that he belongs with the top guys and doesnt settle with the status quo and keep rising the bar. And after World 2018, the judges is looking to give him "reputation" top man status.
I mentioned this before, but he is a great competitor and has given the Mens field such depth and excitement with his presence. It is nice to have a solid contender because I think everyone have been missing competition from the US and to the top guys.
So I hope he continues to up the game in this new system and continue to make it interesting among the top men, especially since the seniors sadly have and will be retiring sooner or later (Patrick sadly being one, and do think Javier is next, and then possibly Hanyu after a few more seasons).
It is already a problem and will still a problem in the new system.
My post was a fact and not a critique. But anyway, given the inflation he got in two years there is no reason that his marks will stop to inflate.
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I meant the new system's flaws aren't what cause this -- it's the judges. I agree with you.
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I think you meant Worlds 2018, since you refer to the Worlds results. It's ok, mistakes happen.
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Anyone attempt to actually re-score with the new guidelines? Even with some illogical edits due to rule changes (bonus to 3 lutz but not quad combo), I ended up getting a higher score for Hanyu's 2017 worlds free with exact same pcs and layout (minus the flip)!
Now, this assumes that judges will actually give out a +5 GOE for elements that hit all 6 bullets - what a novel concept
I even gave 4's to some of the elements that I thought "only" hit 5 of the bullets - I figured I wanted to be somewhat realistic with the way it'll actually get scored.
Now, this assumes that judges will actually give out a +5 GOE for elements that hit all 6 bullets - what a novel concept
I even gave 4's to some of the elements that I thought "only" hit 5 of the bullets - I figured I wanted to be somewhat realistic with the way it'll actually get scored.
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Or, you know, she could still love skating at a competitive level.
Her many "easy points" are also earned by having quality. I don't think you'd appreciate it if we said your fave skaters who get high GOE are merely just motivated by the "easy points" they get.
If you know anything about Kostner she will skate regardless of the points system or what's on the line. She's proved herself beyond expectations and is primarily skating for herself at this point, and has been for a while.
Yeah, I think you guys are being a little unfair to Caro (and I'm saying that when Wakaba is my favorite ladies skater). She did skate a really good short, her competitors had significant problems as well, and some of the mistakes she made aren't punished as hard under the new system (she popped her jumps instead of falling except on the 3S, and popping is punished less than falling now, at least if you only go down one rotation).
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Look I love Caro to death, but there's no justifying her scores in the FS in this past season. I think her SP scores are well deserved, but the way her free has been scored, for example, at euros is mental. I hope that the new system will not encourage that.
For me even some of her SP scores are generous.
Back on topic, does someone calculated how much girls like Zagitova, Kihira and Trusova lose in BV, since i think they are the most impacted by new rules (quads and 3A reduced BV, -3lo combos reduced BV, limited backloading)?
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