I am saying that your logic is flawed. There are multiple clips of Rika doing quads and no clips of Sasha doing 3A (a jump which she admits she struggles with), so why would you expect Sasha to have 3A next season but not Rika having quads?
This is irrelevant.
Assuming Rika will get a 4S, and Sasha will keep doing same jumps she does right now, Sasha will beat Rika most of the time.
Simply because Rika does not land her 3A's 100 out of 100 to start with. For instance, this season, Sasha had an average advantage of over 10 points in jump BV+GOE across 2 programs. That covers a quad sal and still leaves some margin.