2020-21 (and -22) Ladies' skating predictions/rankings

[chasingneverland]

But the federation clearly supports Anna more than Sasha because of who her coach is. Sasha got edge calls at Nationals because she left Eteri. Calling her nationally gives permission for judges to call her internationally. So it amounts to the the same thing.

The federation supported Anna more than Sasha WHILE they had the SAME coach, at least as far as international PCS are concerned. So that's not exactly sound. Furthermore, the calls against Anna (and Aliona and Alina) stopped after the RusFed wrote a letter (about Aliona and Alina) complaining about calls. This was before Anna was #1 and while Alina was still skating and because of the calls against Aliona and Alina (it had nothing to do with Anna). Furthermore, Sasha hasn't gotten those calls internationally. We don't know what will happen internationally. But I kinda don't think Sasha will be called for her edges internationally - she's still #2 in Russia and they'll still want her to do well, especially if Anna doesn't. Besides she's still Russian and the letter applies to her too.

 

[chasingneverland]

Shcherbakova did get edge called when she was competing internationally (and got UR called too), so I wouldn't be too quick to assume she won't be at Worlds.

I wouldn't assume National calls will affect international calls. Trusova will be going here as Russian No. 2. RusFed made big noise when their skaters were getting called in the 2019-20 season - no reason to assume Trusova won't be an international benefactor of this, even if we were to grant she's lost national favour.

Anna hasn't gotten an edge call since THE complaint. And she didn't before that one competition. It doesn't mean she won't again but it's not overly likely - she's going in as Russia's number 1 and even before this year (while all girls STILL had the same coach) was getting no edge calls and higher and higher PCS.

As for underrotation calls, Anna AND Sasha BOTH got them. They both got called at the GPF and Euros. In fact both got a downgrade at Euros.

 

[Dawn825]

I don't even get how that complaint would be voiced/received. "Please tell the judges not to give edge calls to our skaters when they deserve them." "Okay." Obviously I don't know how all this stuff works and who decides what, but does someone literally tell the technical callers at competitions to ignore specific skaters? Or else they'll get fired?

 

[rollerblade]

Fired? ISU judges and referees are unpaid volunteers. Their travel expenses, hotel and food are covered.... and that's basically it.

 

[Jontor]

2020-21 Power Rankings!

1. Rika Kihira: I predict that Kihira will finally get that 4S, and rocket to the top of the world podium. She already fell on a rotated 4S last season in the GPF - and she of course has top notch overall skating. 3A in the short + a 4S in the LP with two 3As should be enough.

2. Alena Kostornaia: I think it was said she left Eteri because she wasn't getting back her 3A, and so she went for Rozanov at Plushy's. I predict her getting it back, but I doubt she'll be getting a handle on the quad, so she'll lose out to Kihira when it matters.

3. Alexandra Trusova: Her skating depends entirely on her layout. I think Plushy will drill her with a 3A and try to make her do a consistent layout - but this is an expected placement for her, because I think she'll still be knocked on her skating compared to the other two, nor do I think she'll be going completely clean with multiple quads even if drilled into her.

4. Anna Shcherbackova: She is the biggest question mark for me. Of course she won every LP last season, and was silver at GPF and Euros (and Russian Champ), but her jumps always seem to be hanging on by a thread. 3 and 4 are interchangeable depending on the day - but I expect Shcherbackova to not hold up with her jumps, even if she beats Trusova's overall skating.

5. Young You: She has the 3A - but will be beaten by the four above her if she doesn't get a quad, which I don't think she will this season.

6. Wakaba Higuchi/ Kaori Sakamoto: Higuchi had an outstanding comeback from injury last season and attempted a 3A at 4CCs, and Sakamoto seems to get huge PCS despite putting out meh performances (and is training a quad and 3A), but unless they get a handle on that, they'll place all the way down here. I expect both to make the Japan team, though.

8. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: I don't see her components (or even GOE, unfortunately) picking up enough to put her on the team - but she's the one with the most firepower in Russia if we consider her technique on her jumps, and the fact that she already went for quads at Nationals.

9. Bradie Tennell: She randomly started getting an artist's reputation last season. Confusing as that is, it makes her the strongest American lady - and I think she might get a 3A after her switch to Tom Z. I doubt she'll be getting it together when it matters.

10. Alina Zagitova/Evgenia Medvedeva: Huge PCS and GOE when they land things - will be beaten out of the team nonetheless.

Unranked: fresh seniors, Satoko Miyahara, Eunsoo Lim, Karen Chen, Mariah Bell... others I can't remember.

It's really interesting to see this and what we all kind of thought back in August. So much have changed.

In terms of the coming up Worlds:

Kihira got her 4S alright, but is it stable? We haven't seen her that much this season, so I feel kind of uncertain with her. But she's still a contender for sure.

Kostornaia is out.

Trusova is, in a way, the same Trusova we had last year. Some good competitions, some really baaad. She can go anywhere.

Shcherbakova might be a question mark still, but not as much as we might have thought back in August. She has really proved herself this season.

Young You is out.

Higuchi is also out.

Sakamoto. Can still be up there...or not.

Tuktamysheva is in!!! Who would have thought back in August...?

Tennell. Still strong, and knowing her as a hard worker she will for sure come to Worlds fully prepared.

Zagitova/Medvedeva has been super out whole season....

The new entries I would add to a Worlds top 10 would be the Korean ladies Lee and Kim. They should be up there and they can even get a a 3rd spot for Korea for next season.

And of course Miyahara, she will finish well within the Top 10 for sure.

The last top 10 finish I would give to Karen Chen.

So my predicted top 10 would be in random order: Kihira, Trusova, Shcherbakova, Sakamoto, Tuktamysheva, Tennell, Lee, Kim, Miyahara and Chen.

And an interesting fight will be between the Korean and US ladies if they can get that 3rd spot for the Olympic season. They both might not make it, but if one of them does, for sure the other one doesn't. So the fight is really between them.

 

[Dawn825]

Fired? ISU judges and referees are unpaid volunteers. Their travel expenses, hotel and food are covered.... and that's basically it.

That's why I don't understand why if RusFed says "don't call our skaters"...they don't call their skaters.

And an interesting fight will be between the Korean and US ladies if they can get that 3rd spot for the Olympic season. They both might not make it, but if one of them does, for sure the other one doesn't. So the fight is really between them.

It's very possible neither of them will get one, which is really depressing. I don't think there's any way Korea gets a third spot without Young You, neither Haein or Yelim have a chance at top 6 unless there are several serious meltdowns. The US is a big uncertainty.

 

[chasingneverland]

That's why I don't understand why if RusFed says "don't call our skaters"...they don't call their skaters.

Because politics.

Judges work for their national federations as well. And the big federations are incredibly influential and wealthy (and there are dynamics at work between federations.). And international judges are appointed by their own federation who will judge with their federations's wishes. Because those judges want to judge again and the figure skating world is small and they value their career and the career of their connections. Basically there is a LOT of pressure on those judges to comply with their federation's decisions/desires/wishes (and federation's make deals with each other) and get their friends to do the same. Basically the ISU doesn't pick each countries judges - the federation picks who goes. And especially in the powerful federations, those same judges often have high positions within the federation. (So the judges also have their career to consider - which is obviously worth more than an event that they don't get paid to be at which is even more pressure.) Basically a federation's own leaders judge figure skating events. (And there are also connections to federations within the ISU itself.)

Also each discipline doesn't exist in a vacuum. Basically connections matter. And judges (countries) tend to judge in blocks. (Like Russia and the former Soviet judges.) So there's a lot of you give good PCS/GOE and don't make calls to our skater in this discipline and we'll (as a block) help your skater/team beat this skater/team in this discipline, which with Russia matters because it's not just the Russian judges it's also the judges from other countries that always judge "with" the Russians so it's a lot of sway. (Russia has a little of the "Cold War" still going on too.) (And they're not the only ones - Canada and the US tend to judge together, with some exceptions and basically their are "packets/blocks" of votes that kinda all get swayed.) (Another example is Dubreuil/Lauzon ice dance school in Montreal where they also coach skaters from other countries and those countries tend to also give good PCS to D/L skaters.) Basically, the figure skating world is small and very interconnected. (That's also why you can look at what happened in other disciplines too because they're usually some of we'll let x fed/country win this discipline but then not this one and we'll help y federation win over the previously mentioned x federation in this other discipline (and then that extends to "blocks"). Which doesn't just apply to winning it applies to standings and matters when skaters are close. Like obviously the skaters have to skate well enough to "justify" it but then beyond that is politics.)

Then on top of that reputation matters. High profile skaters are always going to do well. Skaters go in with perceived ranks (aka this is this countries #1 or #2 or #3 and they are the #x in the world) and expectation skews perception. Basically you expect greatness and that's what you'll see. RusFed says our skaters are the best in the World - and their continued domination and even continual competition even during a pandemic proves that - and that's what the world is "conditioned" to see. And vice versa. If you get a reputation for under-rotating, judges expect to see it so they'll look for it and therefore put more of your jumps under review than others who don't have that reputation, which (1) makes you more likely to be called and (2) basically means you'll get called on every 50-50 jump because you won't get the benefit of the doubt. If you get a reputation for edge calls the same happens. And then also higher profile skaters skate at the end so the judges aren't holding down scores because they're not waiting for the best. And then also judges from different countries all tend to value a certain look/style more than others - and because interpretation and performance are subjective then... And then there is also countries "medal counts" and stuff. But it basically comes down to reputation from a powerful federation matters much more than what you do on the ice - unless you have a disaster skate - because expectation leads to reality.

So as for edges, RusFed (and others - they're not the only powerful fed) goes our skaters are the best and between perception and politics that tends to be agreed with. And then everyone in their "block" then agrees with them and because connections in judges - well then the skaters get the benefit of the doubt. And well pretty much every top skater has some issues with edges/rotations/something so there is also some of you ignore x (or give the benefit of the doubt) for my top skater and I'll ignore it (or give the benefit of the doubt) for your top skater (which multiplies when judges judge as "blocks".) And then the ISU as a whole is pretty corrupt and their are politics/connections to various feds within it as well.

 

[Lzbee]

It's very possible neither of them will get one, which is really depressing. I don't think there's any way Korea gets a third spot without Young You, neither Haein or Yelim have a chance at top 6 unless there are several serious meltdowns. The US is a big uncertainty.

Yes, I agree, it looks like it will be much harder for Korea to get 3 spots than USA. Very sad that Young You won't be at worlds. I'm sure Haein and Yelim will do a good job though and they're pretty consistent so might be able to sneak in there if others make mistakes.

 

[Alex65]

Because politics.

.....

^^. My thoughts in brief. ISU and FS federations are saturated with corruption in the most perverse manifestations. This sport, as it is now, has no place in the Olympic Games. Perhaps only the threat of expulsion from the Olympic family will change something. But I'm not sure about that.

 

[alexocfp]

Because politics.

Judges work for their national federations as well. And the big federations are incredibly influential and wealthy (and their are dynamics at work between federations.). And international judges are appointed by their own federation who will judge with their federations's wishes. Because those judges want to judge again and the figure skating world is small and they value their career and the career of their connections. Basically there is a LOT of pressure on those judges to comply with their federation's decisions/desires/wishes (and federation's make deals with each other) and get their friends to do the same. Basically the ISU doesn't pick each countries judges - the federation picks who goes. And especially in the powerful federations, those same judges often have high positions within the federation. (So the judges also have their career to consider - which is obviously worth more than an event that they don't get paid to be at which is even more pressure.) Basically a federation's own leaders judge figure skating events. (And there are also connections to federations within the ISU itself.)

Also each discipline doesn't exist in a vacuum. Basically connections matter. And judges (countries) tend to judge in blocks. (Like Russia and the former Soviet judges.) So there's a lot of you give good PCS/GOE and don't make calls to our skater in this discipline and we'll (as a block) help your skater/team beat this skater/team in this discipline, which with Russia matters because it's not just the Russian judges it's also the judges from other countries that always judge "with" the Russians so it's a lot of sway. (Russia has a little of the "Cold War" still going on too.) (And they're not the only ones - Canada and the US tend to judge together, with some exceptions and basically their are "packets/blocks" of votes that kinda all get swayed.) (Another example is Dubreuil/Lauzon ice dance school in Montreal where they also coach skaters from other countries and those countries tend to also give good PCS to D/L skaters.) Basically, the figure skating world is small and very interconnected. (That's also why you can look at what happened in other disciplines too because they're usually some of we'll let x fed/country win this discipline but then not this one and we'll help y federation win over the previously mentioned x federation in this other discipline (and then that extends to "blocks"). Which doesn't just apply to winning it applies to standings and matters when skaters are close. Like obviously the skaters have to skate well enough to "justify" it but then beyond that is politics.)

Then on top of that reputation matters. High profile skaters are always going to do well. Skaters go in with perceived ranks (aka this is this countries #1 or #2 or #3 and they are the #x in the world) and expectation skews perception. Basically you expect greatness and that's what you'll see. RusFed says our skaters are the best in the World - and their continued domination and even continual competition even during a pandemic proves that - and that's what the world is "conditioned" to see. And vice versa. If you get a reputation for under-rotating, judges expect to see it so they'll look for it and therefore put more of your jumps under review than others who don't have that reputation, which (1) makes you more likely to be called and (2) basically means you'll get called on every 50-50 jump because you won't get the benefit of the doubt. If you get a reputation for edge calls the same happens. And then also higher profile skaters skate at the end so the judges aren't holding down scores because they're not waiting for the best. And then also judges from different countries all tend to value a certain look/style more than others - and because interpretation and performance are subjective then... And then there is also countries "medal counts" and stuff. But it basically comes down to reputation from a powerful federation matters much more than what you do on the ice - unless you have a disaster skate - because expectation leads to reality.

So as for edges, RusFed (and others - they're not the only powerful fed) goes our skaters are the best and between perception and politics that tends to be agreed with. And then everyone in their "block" then agrees with them and because connections in judges - well then the skaters get the benefit of the doubt. And well pretty much every top skater has some issues with edges/rotations/something so there is also some of you ignore x (or give the benefit of the doubt) for my top skater and I'll ignore it (or give the benefit of the doubt) for your top skater (which multiplies when judges judge as "blocks".) And then the ISU as a whole is pretty corrupt and their are politics/connections to various feds within it as well.

The second part of your post is less about politics and more with the fact that in sports, the “names“ get the calls.

Because Russia is the undisputed best in the world, they will get the benefit of the doubt. Just like Bayern will get the benefit of the doubt in a match against Koln. Benefits of the doubt are earned because of continued excellence.

In this game, the Russian ladies are Bayern Munich times 5.

 

[Magill]

Because politics.

Judges work for their national federations as well. And the big federations are incredibly influential and wealthy (and their are dynamics at work between federations.). And international judges are appointed by their own federation who will judge with their federations's wishes. Because those judges want to judge again and the figure skating world is small and they value their career and the career of their connections. Basically there is a LOT of pressure on those judges to comply with their federation's decisions/desires/wishes (and federation's make deals with each other) and get their friends to do the same. Basically the ISU doesn't pick each countries judges - the federation picks who goes. And especially in the powerful federations, those same judges often have high positions within the federation. (So the judges also have their career to consider - which is obviously worth more than an event that they don't get paid to be at which is even more pressure.) Basically a federation's own leaders judge figure skating events. (And there are also connections to federations within the ISU itself.)

Also each discipline doesn't exist in a vacuum. Basically connections matter. And judges (countries) tend to judge in blocks. (Like Russia and the former Soviet judges.) So there's a lot of you give good PCS/GOE and don't make calls to our skater in this discipline and we'll (as a block) help your skater/team beat this skater/team in this discipline, which with Russia matters because it's not just the Russian judges it's also the judges from other countries that always judge "with" the Russians so it's a lot of sway. (Russia has a little of the "Cold War" still going on too.) (And they're not the only ones - Canada and the US tend to judge together, with some exceptions and basically their are "packets/blocks" of votes that kinda all get swayed.) (Another example is Dubreuil/Lauzon ice dance school in Montreal where they also coach skaters from other countries and those countries tend to also give good PCS to D/L skaters.) Basically, the figure skating world is small and very interconnected. (That's also why you can look at what happened in other disciplines too because they're usually some of we'll let x fed/country win this discipline but then not this one and we'll help y federation win over the previously mentioned x federation in this other discipline (and then that extends to "blocks"). Which doesn't just apply to winning it applies to standings and matters when skaters are close. Like obviously the skaters have to skate well enough to "justify" it but then beyond that is politics.)

Then on top of that reputation matters. High profile skaters are always going to do well. Skaters go in with perceived ranks (aka this is this countries #1 or #2 or #3 and they are the #x in the world) and expectation skews perception. Basically you expect greatness and that's what you'll see. RusFed says our skaters are the best in the World - and their continued domination and even continual competition even during a pandemic proves that - and that's what the world is "conditioned" to see. And vice versa. If you get a reputation for under-rotating, judges expect to see it so they'll look for it and therefore put more of your jumps under review than others who don't have that reputation, which (1) makes you more likely to be called and (2) basically means you'll get called on every 50-50 jump because you won't get the benefit of the doubt. If you get a reputation for edge calls the same happens. And then also higher profile skaters skate at the end so the judges aren't holding down scores because they're not waiting for the best. And then also judges from different countries all tend to value a certain look/style more than others - and because interpretation and performance are subjective then... And then there is also countries "medal counts" and stuff. But it basically comes down to reputation from a powerful federation matters much more than what you do on the ice - unless you have a disaster skate - because expectation leads to reality.

So as for edges, RusFed (and others - they're not the only powerful fed) goes our skaters are the best and between perception and politics that tends to be agreed with. And then everyone in their "block" then agrees with them and because connections in judges - well then the skaters get the benefit of the doubt. And well pretty much every top skater has some issues with edges/rotations/something so there is also some of you ignore x (or give the benefit of the doubt) for my top skater and I'll ignore it (or give the benefit of the doubt) for your top skater (which multiplies when judges judge as "blocks".) And then the ISU as a whole is pretty corrupt and their are politics/connections to various feds within it as well.

But why, just why the distribution of all the money and fame is left in the hands of unpaid volunteers? And why these volunteers are so eager to keep on doing it for free and call it a "career"? Is it common in any other sport and how is it perceived by other sport federations? Personally, I never heard of anything like that and would tend to think it makes the whole thing extremely unreliable, untrustworthy and prone to all sorts of abnormalities. In any other area of life it would get immediately called out as untransparent and unacceptable, no?

I don't expect you to personally answer all these questions, it is just that the reality you present makes them painfully urgent to me.

 

[Skatesocs]

And why these volunteers are so eager to keep on doing it for free and call it a "career"?

They're not eager to do it for free That's all I'll say.

 

[Ziotic]

It is possible that Russia, Japan, USA and SK all get 3 spots. But really Japan/Russia #3 are the biggest obstacles along with Leona and Alexia for this happening.
I honestly think both USA and SK will have their ladies in the top 10, just not with high enough placements.
Also while I would love to see Leona and Alexia crack the top 10 it’s irksome that a SK or American will get the short end of the stick if this happens. Neither Belgium or Switzerland need a second a slot for the Olympics.

 

[kirauza343]

I really can’t see three South Korean spots happening without some major meltdowns. 6-7 would have to be what they’re aiming for but even that means both Yelim and Haein will have to beat Satoko PLUS one of Kaori, Liza, and Bradie (all three of whom have been solid lately, and while Liza doesn’t have status of federation fave like Kaori and Bradie do she still has a triple axel). And that’s in addition to Yelim and Haein needing to beat skaters like Loena and Karen that have scored in a similar range as them.

5-8 would require one of them to beat two of Kaori, Liza, and Bradie when Yelim couldn’t even beat a struggling Kaori at Four Continents last season.

4-9 would mean beating all three.

 

[chasingneverland]

^^. My thoughts in brief. ISU and FS federations are saturated with corruption in the most perverse manifestations. This sport, as it is now, has no place in the Olympic Games. Perhaps only the threat of expulsion from the Olympic family will change something. But I'm not sure about that.

If you think it's bad now, it used to be soo much more blatant before.

And the ISU has nothing to do with the Olympics really...they made that call, not the ISU. Besides the VP of the ISU IS Lakernik. You really think they'll turn against Russia??

 

[chasingneverland]

The second part of your post is less about politics and more with the fact that in sports, the “names“ get the calls.

Because Russia is the undisputed best in the world, they will get the benefit of the doubt. Just like Bayern will get the benefit of the doubt in a match against Koln. Benefits of the doubt are earned because of continued excellence.

In this game, the Russian ladies are Bayern Munich times 5.

Yeah exactly. It's combined although arguably there are politics at play that result in "names". And politics have some effect on ranking.

But all the large federations have skaters that have "names".

And it's not like the Russia girls "aren't" the best. Rika is the only one who can come close to competing and she can't if Anna and Sasha do their full arsenal. (Also of course all have to be clean.)

And then also, Eteri's skaters, in particular work the code (although they're not alone in this) - they know what gets good scores and what get's penalized. They know that judges don't tend to look at take-off (unless you get a reputation) or technique as much as landing quality, flow, and transitions when they award GOE. (That also makes them less likely to get reviewed, hence less edge calls.) So all the girls do a zillion transitions and maintain fairly good speed coming out. They also know that more than anything PCS depend on consistency and reputation, with a boost for quads/3As (and transitions). So they ensure their girls are as consistent as they can be with as much difficulty as they can do while still maintaining that level of consistency. Which only improves their reputation. And then that's cyclical. And then if they do have a messier skate - they've already developed that reputation for consistency and difficulty as well as results (to back that they are the ones to beat) so it saves them if it happens once or twice. (And the other thing that saves them is BV in addition to their PCS.)

 

[chasingneverland]

But why, just why the distribution of all the money and fame is left in the hands of unpaid volunteers? And why these volunteers are so eager to keep on doing it for free and call it a "career"? Is it common in any other sport and how is it perceived by other sport federations? Personally, I never heard of anything like that and would tend to think it makes the whole thing extremely unreliable, untrustworthy and prone to all sorts of abnormalities. In any other area of life it would get immediately called out as untransparent and unacceptable, no?

I don't expect you to personally answer all these questions, it is just that the reality you present makes them painfully urgent to me.

Because it's not the actual judging that's the value. It's their leadership positions within the Fed (and sometimes the ISU). It's the value for their own personal connections. Basically some of it comes down to you judge this skater well in this competition (and get the rest of the block to judge the same - like Ukraine and old Soviet countries will judge with Russia and Canada will judge with US) and we'll give you a raise/promotion in your career in the Fed (or the ISU). And it often extents farther than that as coaches and their skaters also tend to have ties with judges (and that's true for all the powerful feds).

There are other sports that are judged like that. It's more common in sports that have a "subjective" element - and skating has two - GOE and PCS.

 

[chasingneverland]

They're not eager to do it for free That's all I'll say.

They're also not doing it for "free"

 

[chasingneverland]

Yes, I agree, it looks like it will be much harder for Korea to get 3 spots than USA. Very sad that Young You won't be at worlds. I'm sure Haein and Yelim will do a good job though and they're pretty consistent so might be able to sneak in there if others make mistakes.

Yeah I wish Young You was there. She was actually a legitimate threat, at full strength. Probably not to Rika, Anna, or Sasha - as long as they are reasonably clean, but definitely to the Liza T, Kaori, Bradie tier. Having a full-strength, Young You and Aliona missing (where Russia doesn't for sure take 3 of the top 4 spots), is actually HUGE for the US. It makes it feasible that they can have 3 spots rather than praying for a meltdown (or several). Also I just liked Young You in general..

 

[Skatesocs]

They're also not doing it for "free"

I'm not sure what you thought I was implying there.

I am aware of what goes behind the scenes in figure skating judging.