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I would say so. The Shibs. You can only split two, and in that case, the Shibs are a better bet IMO.
Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA
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I would say so. The Shibs. You can only split two, and in that case, the Shibs are a better bet IMO.
But denying the U.S. Champs a chance at the team medal? That seems odd to me.
And yes, I know if the Shibs haven't made that mistake then they would have won, but I'm not playing that game, LOL.
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The title of US champion doesn't automatically get anyone an Olympic spot these days so I don't see why it should get them an automatic place in the Team event and they have the individual for their chance. I just went with who I think is the strongest, that's all, in the case of splitting the ladies and the men, which I find the most likely choice. And best anyway, for that medal, while keeping in mind Nathan's individual chances.
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So what? She can do it and that's what the USA needs if they want Team Gold.
I'm not sure what you people don't understand - USA must have very high Ladies (and Men's) placements in order to win Gold - unless something very crazy happens in the Pairs event in USA's favor. The USA lady needs to beat the Japanese lady, the Canadian lady, and Carolina Kostner in order to get a good enough placement. The chance of Bradie Tennell doing that is lower than Karen Chen doing it. Bradie Tennell has a higher chance of doing a clean skate, but a clean skate from Tennell is probably not going to score well enough.
USA 99% needs to take a risk if they want to win, they are not in a dominate position. That's how any game works. When you are playing from behind you need to do something that puts you ahead.
Are you assuming that S/M don't skate the team event? Because SK/K could easily be behind China, Germany, Russia, Canada, France and Italy in pairs. DM/G have a higher average SP score than SK/K this year. So that would be 4 points and 56 total.
But agreed -- I don't know where this talk of the USA getting a silver or gold is coming from; it's way more likely that the US is off the podium entirely. Japan could definitely play the spoiler here -- a few things need to happen in their favor (M/R ahead of W/L in dance, Yuzu/Shoma ahead of Nathan, Satoko ahead of at least one of Kostner/Osmond in the short, Suzaki/Kihara ahead of Kim/Kam), but it's a possibility. More likely than what needs to happen for the US to get silver or gold: Nathan in both segments, Patrick regressing back to Skate Canada form, Kolyada/Osmond/Daleman flopping, Russian/Canadian pairs flopping, SK/K landing their SBS jumps... A LOT of things would have to happen.
Can the US team wait until after the short segment to announce who is skating the free? If Japan does well (Yuzu 10, Satoko 8, S/K 2, M/R 5 = 25) and the US not so well (Nathan 9, Bradie/Mirai 6, SK/K 4, S/S 8 =27), then they will need Nathan, or a particularly inspired performance from whatever US lady does the free to secure bronze.
IMO, they should have Nathan/Mirai/Knierims/Shibs in the short. If they're in a good position going into the free, then use Adam/Bradie/Knierims/Shibs or Adam/Mirai/Knierims/Hubbell&Donohue. If not, then Nathan/Bradie/Knierims/Hubbell&Donohue.
Mirai should definitely skate the short though, b/c a clean Bradie won't beat Evgenia/Carolina/Satoko/Kaetlyn -- the highest a clean Bradie has scored intentionally is a 67.01, whereas any of the other 4 could go over 70 with a fall (or in Satoko's case, a UR). Mirai would probably also finish 5th, but if she was totally clean, could score mid-70s, which would be ahead of a less-than-perfect Kaetlyn or Carolina, and possibly even ahead of a clean Satoko. And when you look at the remaining competition (Li, Schott, Choi, Buchanan, Meite/Lecavelier), there's no way the US lady finishes lower than 5th, regardless of what they put out. I mean, Mirai beat Meite and Schott in the short at Rostelecom, with a performance featuring 2 falls, 2 underrotations, and a downgrade. So in Bradie's case, it would be at worst 5th place, at best 5th place; in Mirai's it would be at worst 5th place, at best 2nd (and likely a guaranteed bronze if she did finish 2nd).
You people?
The Shibs have a much better record internationally than H/D. Personally, I would have the Shibs skate both short and long regardless of what medal the US is shooting for. Chen skating both programs is definitely the US's best bet, but it makes me nervous. I wouldn't want to jeopardize Nathan's chances at an individual medal. I would probably have him skate only the long program. Or maybe only the short. Too many factors to think about! Which teams are likely to be 4th or 5th going into the LP? Japan, I assume will be fourth. Which team will be 5th? China (no ladies or dance)? France (no men; weak in ladies)? Both have team members with the potential to place 1st in the SP. I'm betting on China, I think.
All season long people have been saying that Bradie won't do this or that. I think it probably would take Bradie winning an Olympic medal before the skeptics go away, LOL. (Just putting an extreme scenario out there, guys. Although at this rate, who knows what will happen.)
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I disagree that it would be unjust to exclude Russia from the team event because the teams represent a country, not the individual skaters. The individual skaters have chances at individual medals. That is enough--no, strike that, it's a lot. Maybe Russia didn't deserve to be banned, but they are banned. To allow them to field a team "from Russia" makes the whole thing just a slap on the wrist.
Yes - although admittedly I had my own reservations regarding Tennell when a ton of people insisted on hyping her up pre-season even though she had never been "tested" before so to speak. But like another poster pointed out, Skate America changed everything (as did everyone else's mediocrity up to that point). That said, I never counted her out - I just was saying let's wait and see before anointing her The Next Great One or crowning her anything.
That still applies now - but that said, the data points don't lie - Tennell has been averaging notably higher scores than the other two. Does this mean she's a slam dunk or sure bet if they put her in? Of course not - ANYONE can fall or slip up at any time. But, like USFS made in the Oly team determinations, they've got to do the same for who to have skate on the team event and I can't see how you don't have Tennell skate at least one portion of it, if not both.
I certainly don't want to declare her the savior of U.S. Ladies figure skating, but I think that based on what she's done so far, I think she'll get much farther internationally then some people seem to think.
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Bradie skating her best can finish 5th in the SP. That's not good and will absolutely kill any medal chances higher than Bronze for USA. I'd rather hope for someone more talented to skate their best, than hope for the rest of the competition to fail in order to clear the path for a skater with lower scoring potential. What's more likely - Karen Chen / Mirai Nagasu skating their best, or every lady from Japan, Canada, and Italy failing while Bradie skates her best?
I mean it's possible that Satoko gets multiple URs, Carolina misplaces her 3-3, and Kaetlyn does whatever she did at Canadian Nationals... and honestly that scenario is about as likely as Karen going clean. In the last 2 seasons, she's had 1 clean international SP, 1 sorta-clean SP (1 UR), and several really awful SPs, that all involved 2-3 major mistakes (UR, downgrade, fall, pop). And Karen's highest SP score ever didn't even crack 70, which won't contend w/ Satoko/Carolina/Kaetlyn if they're even remotely clean. If anyone is left out of the team event, it should definitely be Karen... and I say this as someone who much prefers Karen to Bradie.
BTW is Bradie's highest international free skate component score (Skate America 2017, 64.41) really higher than either of Karen's (Worlds 2017, 64.33) or Mirai's (Autumn Classic 2016, 64.24)? Am I missing something? B/c that is honestly mind-boggling.
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If I'm remembering correctly (and no guarantee there) you were bringing up Bradie's potential as the season progressed, but to be honest, I didn't think she would hold up under brighter lights. Well, I was wrong.
After her SkAm performances, she looked like, "Yeah, I skated as I expected to. No big deal." That was what struck me the most. She was calm and confident that she was going to deliver as she did.
And then, she did the same thing at USNats (well, a little UR on one 2A - but not the 3T in the combo - which told me that not everything had to be PERFECT for her to pull that combo).
I remember after the short, she was asked during a TV interview if she had exceeded her expectations with a new SP record. Her response, "No, because I had no expectation other than to skate a clean program." I really liked that.
I agree with you that she'll do better than people think.
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The scores are ever inflated and Karen was considered new on the scene at Worlds last year. Whatever Bradie is scoring for a clean SP (and her Skate America score this season was multiple points lower than Karen's at Worlds last season), Karen is going to score higher. :confused2:
Hmm, I don't agree. Satoko can get 1 UR in the SP but it seems highly unlikely she gets 2, the judges haven't gone there. Satoko with 1 UR beats Bradie and Satoko is extremely consistent. The other Japanese girl (who will actually probably skate the Team SP and Satoko the LP?) is also very consistent and will beat Bradie unless a significant mistake is made.
Yes, it is a little like comparing apples to oranges here, but the fact is that we don’t have a clean skate from Karen Chen to compare it with from this year! I would hope that a clean Karen would score higher than a clean Bradie (Mirai may be my sentimental favorite US lady, but Karen is the most complete package) but I expect Bradie’s score will go up from what she put up at Skate America... hoping I’m wrong here though.
And yeah, not expecting Satoko to have more than one UR in the short (praying for none, tbh). But I think it’s just as unlikely that Karen skates a clean short. I’d love to be proven wrong here as well!
Kaori Sakamoto? Nah, I love Kaori, but she definitely hasn’t been that consistent this year. Not as consistent as Wakaba, she just peaked at the right time. She’s also new to the senior scene, and while her junior resume is pretty impressive, if she makes mistakes she doesn’t have the PCS to win over Bradie.
It's mind-boggling because it's too high in comparison to the other two skaters. But Mirai is perpetually underscored, so I'm not surprised.
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Why do you hope her score won't go up. I expect it to go up.
Between late November and early February, she will have had more than two months to work on the nuances of her programs, to solidify her skating skills, perfect her technique, etc. And competing as well as she did at US Nationals, I hope she skates with more confidence.
Why would anyone expect her score NOT to increase from her first GP outing?
Now, if you're talking "reputation bonus" - well, that's something that we can agree on... for a LOT of skaters.
In general, just not a huge fan of either consistency bonuses or reputation bonuses. And I do think Bradie will benefit from both.
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