2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 16, 2019

oatmella said:
I have a feeling they won’t hold Alysa down if she skates clean/historic Nationals skate (if she does two 3A in FS), like some felt they did to Nathan in 2016.

I don't think so, either. Naomi Nari Nam won the silver medal in 1999 with her performance ability, despite lower technical content than others and and ineligibility for worlds. I think the judges would have placed Sasha over Michelle had the former not fallen at the end of her LP in 2000, and she wasn't eligible without a Jr Worlds medal. OTOH, Alysa isn't even junior eligible yet, so I'm not sure how much the perception that's she's a child would affect her marks. But I don't think the fact that she can't go to Worlds alone will be much of a factor.

Mathman · Jan 16, 2019

bobbob said:
I predict Alysa Liu will get the highest components scores if she skates clean. Her components need work, but Nationals judges only care about cleanliness and novelty. Just watch.

Well, you may turn out to be a prophet! :rock:

But I think that there is another way to look at it. If Alysa Liu skates clean, by which we mean she delivers her full intended technical content including three triple Axels, and with no under-rotations, edge calls or negative GOE, then of course she will lead in TES. That's just arithmetic.

And the higher the TES, the higher the PCS automatically go. (Except for a few outliers like Jason Brown or Adam Rippon who have excellent blade skills but lower tech.) If this happens at U.S. Nationals it is not necessary to wonder if the USFSA prefers the new kid on the block, or if the judges are unduly influenced by audience reaction. That's just figure skating.

natsulian · Jan 16, 2019

The 2018/2019 season has been a year of rebuilding and with so many veterans out of the picture, the U.S. figure skating scene for the ladies is in need of some exciting fresh blood. However, I hope that we do not repeat past mistakes and reward instant success stories that fizzle out instead of honing and grooming them for longevity. Our up-and-coming talents all seem poised for great careers and for all the flack the U.S. ladies get, we’re not in the dire situation so many people love to speak of and constantly underscore. Bradie and Mariah are definitely Top 10 in the World when they skate cleanly and had Bradie gone for the Lutz-Loop in the free only, she’d have made it to the Grand Prix. As for Mariah, she’s certainly had the breakout season she’s been looking for and is eager to really prove herself, already talking about how she can increase her technical difficulty come next season. I for one think our remaining senior ladies deserve more credit than they’re receiving. Sure, the depth may be lacking, but we have to realize that most of our skaters are 13-16 and JUST getting started. Talent was and is never the issue with U.S. ladies but rather nerves and with just how confident and determined the next generation of skaters seem to be, things can only go up from here. Regardless of where Starr, Alysa, Hanna, Ting, Pooja, and the others place, I just hope they all skate cleanly and really put the gauntlet down.

chuckm · Jan 17, 2019

We had "exciting fresh blood" in Gracie Gold and Karen Chen, but the thrill didn't last.

When a skater is as young as Alysa, who knows what will happen when she inevitably goes through growth and puberty. Remember Naomi Nari Nam and Deanna Stellato? They were exciting new skaters, too, but growth led to injury and they faded away.

Then there was Mirai, who won the US Championship at 13, then spent several seasons in the doldrums when she grew and had trouble adjusting to her new body.

louisa05 · Jan 17, 2019

chuckm said:
We had "exciting fresh blood" in Gracie Gold and Karen Chen, but the thrill didn't last.

When a skater is as young as Alysa, who knows what will happen when she inevitably goes through growth and puberty. Remember Naomi Nari Nam and Deanna Stellato? They were exciting new skaters, too, but growth led to injury and they faded away.

Then there was Mirai, who won the US Championship at 13, then spent several seasons in the doldrums when she grew and had trouble adjusting to her new body.

The list of 13-16 year olds who were going to be the next savior of ladies skating in the U.S then never made a world team is endless. Naomi, Deanna, Caroline Zhang, Katy Taylor, Ann Patrice McDonough... Sydne Vogel was mentioned on another forum. Andrea Gardner was going to be huge. Amber Glenn won the junior title and was going to do something big. We're still waiting on Courtney Hicks's big breakout.

Forgive me for not buying the hype. I bought it back in the Caroline, Naomi era. Oops.

BeTheLivingProof · Jan 17, 2019

louisa05 said:
The list of 13-16 year olds who were going to be the next savior of ladies skating in the U.S then never made a world team is endless. Naomi, Deanna, Caroline Zhang, Katy Taylor, Ann Patrice McDonough... Sydne Vogel was mentioned on another forum. Andrea Gardner was going to be huge. Amber Glenn won the junior title and was going to do something big. We're still waiting on Courtney Hicks's big breakout.

Forgive me for not buying the hype. I bought it back in the Caroline, Naomi era. Oops.

I completely agree with this post. I’ve been around long enough to know that hype around a certain skater may not lead to anything. It’s amazing what Alysa is doing, but I am way more interested in what Bradie and Mariah throw down.

Tbh, I’m not sure how I feel about age ineligible kids competing at senior nationals, but that’s a whole different conversation.

What are the chances Bradie doesn’t go to Worlds? She’d have to bomb pretty bad right? I feel like if she skates clean or even mostly clean, the judges will hold her up some to give her more confidence going into Worlds. But we never know for sure what will happen, and that’s why I’m excited about this year!

Sjs5572 · Jan 17, 2019

Well, imo having Alysa, and to a lesser extent, Cui in the mix, is what's saving this ladies' Nationals competition. It would be much less exciting if Bradie and Mariah were the gold and silver medalists going away. Let them all skate their hearts out and let the chips fall where they may. Hopefully, the judges and tech panel will callz them as they seez them. Sorry about all the cliche idioms....Nationals brings out the tabloid writer in me!

kwanatic · Jan 17, 2019

I don't think the US will hold Alysa back much. Everyone knows who she is coming into this event so the expectation is there already. Guaranteed there will be fluff on NBC about the tiny 13 year old with the 3As who could potentially upset the vets even though she's not even eligible to go to worlds. It's been a long time since the US has had a young star to gush over. If Alysa delivers on that expectation the judges will reward her. That whole "looking to the future" thing is what the USFSA is notorious for. Why would they stop now?

I imagine the USFSA want to do what they can to help position Alysa to be a front-runner when she debuts on the JGP next year. If she nails her content she will bring the house down b/c no one will have ever seen that kind of performance from a US woman before. That would could very well be enough to put her ahead of the others. Even if Alysa wins she's not going to worlds so assuming Bradie does win she still goes to worlds as the #1. Win-win.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 17, 2019

kwanatic said:
I don't think the US will hold Alysa back much. Everyone knows who she is coming into this event so the expectation is there already. Guaranteed there will be fluff on NBC about the tiny 13 year old with the 3As who could potentially upset the vets even though she's not even eligible to go to worlds. It's been a long time since the US has had a young star to gush over. If Alysa delivers on that expectation the judges will reward her. That whole "looking to the future" thing is what the USFSA is notorious for. Why would they stop now?

I imagine the USFSA want to do what they can to help position Alysa to be a front-runner when she debuts on the JGP next year. If she nails her content she will bring the house down b/c no one will have ever seen that kind of performance from a US woman before. That would could very well be enough to put her ahead of the others. Even if Alysa wins she's not going to worlds so assuming Bradie does win she still goes to worlds as the #1. Win-win.

NBC and the USFSA care a lot about generating excitement, because that generates viewers. Whether or not Alysa is competitive in a few years doesn't matter much right now; it's all about getting people interested in a US woman. At Worlds we'll have Bradie, who is at best the 6th favorite for the world title, and a second TBD skater who is unlikely to factor in to the world medals. The casual fans will likely be drawn in more when the US has medal contenders or skaters who can execute rare feats like the 3A; Mirai was able to leverage her one successful 3A into great opportunities like DWTS so it seems that people did care about the achievement.

kimi492 · Jan 17, 2019

Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong - but almost every 3A Alysa has done is UR. I don’t know how many planned she has, but even more means more room for error. My point being, her percentages of landing the jump rotated seem very low. Alysa has the PCS of a junior and it shows IMO in her presentation and skating skills. I’m not sure why people are worried about her being held back? If anything I’m worried the US will purposefully prop her up. If Bradie and Mariah skate clean, I don’t think Alysa deserves to place higher than them based on what I said above. Do people actually think Alysa should win nationals?? I’m very confused by the current topic of convo.

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 17, 2019

I’m all in for the year of Mariah :pray:

#DoIt4Gizmo

Sjs5572 · Jan 17, 2019

kimi492 said:
Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong - but almost every 3A Alysa has done is UR. I don’t know how many planned she has, but even more means more room for error. My point being, her percentages of landing the jump rotated seem very low. Alysa has the PCS of a junior and it shows IMO in her presentation and skating skills. I’m not sure why people are worried about her being held back? If anything I’m worried the US will purposefully prop her up. If Bradie and Mariah skate clean, I don’t think Alysa deserves to place higher than them based on what I said above. Do people actually think Alysa should win nationals?? I’m very confused by the current topic of convo.

At sectionals, her sp 3a was clean with positive goe. Her lp 3a-2t combo was also clean with positive goe. Her 3a individual jump was ur.

Mathman · Jan 17, 2019

Sjs5572 said:
Well, imo having Alysa, and to a lesser extent, Cui in the mix, is what's saving this ladies' Nationals competition. It would be much less exciting if Bradie and Mariah were the gold and silver medalists going away. Let them all skate their hearts out and let the chips fall where they may. Hopefully, the judges and tech panel will callz them as they seez them. Sorry about all the cliche idioms....Nationals brings out the tabloid writer in me!

I just hope Alysa will be able to strike while the iron is hot. Carpe Diem! :yes:

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 17, 2019

kimi492 said:
Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong - but almost every 3A Alysa has done is UR. I don’t know how many planned she has, but even more means more room for error. My point being, her percentages of landing the jump rotated seem very low. Alysa has the PCS of a junior and it shows IMO in her presentation and skating skills. I’m not sure why people are worried about her being held back? If anything I’m worried the US will purposefully prop her up. If Bradie and Mariah skate clean, I don’t think Alysa deserves to place higher than them based on what I said above. Do people actually think Alysa should win nationals?? I’m very confused by the current topic of convo.

She's young and not a well known skater, so she has to do something to stand apart from the field. She may underrotate some of her attempts, but every American woman has that issue. If the panel is strict, her jumps may get downgraded but a lot of other skaters' will, too.

Jammers · Jan 17, 2019

chuckm said:
We had "exciting fresh blood" in Gracie Gold and Karen Chen, but the thrill didn't last.

When a skater is as young as Alysa, who knows what will happen when she inevitably goes through growth and puberty. Remember Naomi Nari Nam and Deanna Stellato? They were exciting new skaters, too, but growth led to injury and they faded away.

Then there was Mirai, who won the US Championship at 13, then spent several seasons in the doldrums when she grew and had trouble adjusting to her new body.

I don't think you can even compare Karen to Gracie to be honest. For all of her inconsistency Gracie had a Michelle Kwan like career in length and results compared to Karen who basically had two great competitions in 2017 but otherwise has been a bit of a disappointment with less then stellar international results.

frida80 · Jan 17, 2019

kimi492 said:
Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong - but almost every 3A Alysa has done is UR. I don’t know how many planned she has, but even more means more room for error. My point being, her percentages of landing the jump rotated seem very low. Alysa has the PCS of a junior and it shows IMO in her presentation and skating skills. I’m not sure why people are worried about her being held back? If anything I’m worried the US will purposefully prop her up. If Bradie and Mariah skate clean, I don’t think Alysa deserves to place higher than them based on what I said above. Do people actually think Alysa should win nationals?? I’m very confused by the current topic of convo.

I'm my opinion nearly all of them have been under. I've watched slow-more several times and she's hit the 90 degree point a few times but never seems to pass it. Domestic callers are terrible for calling jumps clean when their not. Suddenly kids are shocked when they get called internationally. I wish someone would just get her to work on the cleanness of her jumps so she doesn't get complacent.

bobbob · Jan 17, 2019

No one is saying Alysa is going to be the next big thing, not at ALL. We just think she has a good shot to win Nationals THIS YEAR.

Sjs5572 · Jan 17, 2019

frida80 said:
I'm my opinion nearly all of them have been under. I've watched slow-more several times and she's hit the 90 degree point a few times but never seems to pass it. Domestic callers are terrible for calling jumps clean when their not. Suddenly kids are shocked when they get called internationally. I wish someone would just get her to work on the cleanness of her jumps so she doesn't get complacent.

Alysa attempted two 3a at the 2018 Asian Figure Skating Trophy. Her 3a-2t was ratified with positive goe. She did ur and fall on her solo 3a. So, she can get the 3a ratified in international competition. Furthermore, the jump has become a lot more stable since that competition.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 17, 2019

Just to confirm, Alysa (born 8 Aug 2005) will be age eligible for the Senior GP in the 2020-21 season and for Worlds/Olympics in 2021-22. Is this correct?

mrrice · Jan 17, 2019

drivingmissdaisy said:
Just to confirm, Alysa (born 8 Aug 2005) will be age eligible for the Senior GP in the 2020-21 season and for Worlds/Olympics in 2021-22. Is this correct?

I was just about to ask how old Alysa was. We only have 2 spots for world's, right? I think that if Bradie and Mariah go clean, it will be difficult for Alysa to match them in components.

2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

drivingmissdaisy

Mathman

natsulian

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Sjs5572

kwanatic

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Sjs5572

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drivingmissdaisy

mrrice

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