It's not a likely scenario, as he didn't make JGP, I don't even know if he will be at Euros, and there are plenty of men that have been performing solidly (Brezina, Voronov, Kvitelashvili, Rizzo). But the European men's field has been so weird this season that it feels like anything could happen. We need Javi back to restore the balance.
2018-19 Men's Power Rankings
- Thread starter Interspectator
- Start date
It's not a likely scenario, as he didn't make JGP, I don't even know if he will be at Euros, and there are plenty of men that have been performing solidly (Brezina, Voronov, Kvitelashvili, Rizzo). But the European men's field has been so weird this season that it feels like anything could happen. We need Javi back to restore the balance.
I can see Nathan doing a 5 quad FS this season, and it’s probably quite likely.
But I don’t see him doing a 6 quad FS this season. Not sure if he’s still training 4Lo? He landed one in practice at Japan Open, but wasn’t successful in the competition. Might be too risky to go for 5 different quads in one program, but I would guess he wants to do this successfully someday!
- Joined
- Apr 1, 2014
?? math ?? Nathan's BV is not 20-25 points lower than Yuzu and Shoma's.
- Joined
- May 25, 2014
I just read something yesterday - I apologize I can't remember where - in which Javi said he'll be back at Euros.
Yeah, that’s been his plan all along, I think. I hope he can close out his career with title #7
After IdF.....
1. Yuzuru Hanyu (no change)—This week’s competition made it clear that he is the full package under the new scoring system. But that injury….
2. Shoma Uno (no change)—Nathan looks slightly better equipped to handle the technical content/shorter program length right now, but Shoma has the edge on PCS. Each of them has had some great performances and some disappointing ones this season, so it all depends on who performs well on any given day. With or without Hanyu, GPF will be fun
3. Nathan Chen (no change)— If he can hold it together toward the end of his first fall semester in college, then I put nothing past this man. However, his artistry is noticeably weaker than Hanyu’s and Uno’s, and the judges are thus being a little stingy on his PCS (generous, but stingy given his World Champion status)
4. Junhwan Cha (no change)- He is in GPF! And if, God forbid, Hanyu does withdraw, then he has a good shot at the podium. :thumbsup:
5. Michal Brezina (no change)—He also has a good shot at the GPF podium in the event of Hanyu's withdrawal
6. Sergei Voronov (no change)—He is now officially the only Russian man in GPF, but we all know RusFed would rather not appoint him #1. Samarin is right at his heels.
7. Alexander Samarin (no change)—With his high GOEs and PCS and relative consistency, this could be the man Russia bets on come Nationals. Missing GPF might have cost him #1 status, but he has made an excellent case for Euro/Worlds participation.
8. Keegan Messing (no change)—He is now officially first alternate for GPF.....and, again, we could see him there if Hanyu withdraws
9. Kazuki Tomono (+1)—Moves up due to Boyang’s struggles :sad21:
10. Mikhail Kolyada (+1)—Hopefully sacrificing virgins as we speak for a good Nationals performance, because Samarin and Voronov are eyeing two of those Euros/Worlds spots. Still, he goes up +1 because his Nepela scores have held up extremely well after the Grand Prix, and it doesn't look like Aliev will challenge him as The PCS Guy™ the way I thought he would.
11. Jason Brown (new)—Back from the dead and proving how good this scoring system can be if used correctly
that SP score is no mean feat, but can he do it again?
12. Kevin Aymoz (new)—He has been fairly consistent all season and had arguably the best performance of the day at IdF. He could fill the Misha Ge-sized hole in everyone’s hearts come Euros and challenge for top 10 come Worlds.
13. Boyang Jin (-4)—Could be jet lag, could be visa troubles, could be inadequate preparation—whatever it is, poor Boyang is having a rough start to the season, but I believe he will come back strong for 4CCs. We all saw that 4Lz
14. Matteo Rizzo (-2)—Moves down due to Brown and Aymoz’ rise
15. Dmitri Aliev (-1)—He showed signs of life in the free at IdF, but stamina continues to be a serious issue for him. More worryingly, Samarin is outscoring him in PCS. If anybody is going to be sacrificed at Russian Nats, I have a feeling it will be him.
16. Morisi Kvitelashvili (-3)—Moves down due to Brown and Aymoz’ rise
17. Nam Nguyen (-1)—Same
18. Andrei Lazukin (-2)—Samarin's rise does not bode well for his Euro/Worlds chances
19. Vincent Zhou (no change)
20. Deniss Vasiljevs (new)—Very rough GP outings and still no stable quad
21. Roman Sadovsky (new)—Rough outings, but could still make the Canadian world team
22. Sota Yamamoto (new)—Not looking like he will challenge Kazuki and Dai for the #3 spot
23. Keiji Tanaka (new)—See above. Dai coming back steals his "most handsome man on Team Japan" thunder too....
Wild Cards
Daisuke Takahashi :dev3:
Maxim Kovtun
1. Yuzuru Hanyu (no change)—This week’s competition made it clear that he is the full package under the new scoring system. But that injury….
2. Shoma Uno (no change)—Nathan looks slightly better equipped to handle the technical content/shorter program length right now, but Shoma has the edge on PCS. Each of them has had some great performances and some disappointing ones this season, so it all depends on who performs well on any given day. With or without Hanyu, GPF will be fun
3. Nathan Chen (no change)— If he can hold it together toward the end of his first fall semester in college, then I put nothing past this man. However, his artistry is noticeably weaker than Hanyu’s and Uno’s, and the judges are thus being a little stingy on his PCS (generous, but stingy given his World Champion status)
4. Junhwan Cha (no change)- He is in GPF! And if, God forbid, Hanyu does withdraw, then he has a good shot at the podium. :thumbsup:
5. Michal Brezina (no change)—He also has a good shot at the GPF podium in the event of Hanyu's withdrawal
6. Sergei Voronov (no change)—He is now officially the only Russian man in GPF, but we all know RusFed would rather not appoint him #1. Samarin is right at his heels.
7. Alexander Samarin (no change)—With his high GOEs and PCS and relative consistency, this could be the man Russia bets on come Nationals. Missing GPF might have cost him #1 status, but he has made an excellent case for Euro/Worlds participation.
8. Keegan Messing (no change)—He is now officially first alternate for GPF.....and, again, we could see him there if Hanyu withdraws
9. Kazuki Tomono (+1)—Moves up due to Boyang’s struggles :sad21:
10. Mikhail Kolyada (+1)—Hopefully sacrificing virgins as we speak for a good Nationals performance, because Samarin and Voronov are eyeing two of those Euros/Worlds spots. Still, he goes up +1 because his Nepela scores have held up extremely well after the Grand Prix, and it doesn't look like Aliev will challenge him as The PCS Guy™ the way I thought he would.
11. Jason Brown (new)—Back from the dead and proving how good this scoring system can be if used correctly
that SP score is no mean feat, but can he do it again? 12. Kevin Aymoz (new)—He has been fairly consistent all season and had arguably the best performance of the day at IdF. He could fill the Misha Ge-sized hole in everyone’s hearts come Euros and challenge for top 10 come Worlds.
13. Boyang Jin (-4)—Could be jet lag, could be visa troubles, could be inadequate preparation—whatever it is, poor Boyang is having a rough start to the season, but I believe he will come back strong for 4CCs. We all saw that 4Lz
14. Matteo Rizzo (-2)—Moves down due to Brown and Aymoz’ rise
15. Dmitri Aliev (-1)—He showed signs of life in the free at IdF, but stamina continues to be a serious issue for him. More worryingly, Samarin is outscoring him in PCS. If anybody is going to be sacrificed at Russian Nats, I have a feeling it will be him.
16. Morisi Kvitelashvili (-3)—Moves down due to Brown and Aymoz’ rise
17. Nam Nguyen (-1)—Same
18. Andrei Lazukin (-2)—Samarin's rise does not bode well for his Euro/Worlds chances
19. Vincent Zhou (no change)
20. Deniss Vasiljevs (new)—Very rough GP outings and still no stable quad
21. Roman Sadovsky (new)—Rough outings, but could still make the Canadian world team
22. Sota Yamamoto (new)—Not looking like he will challenge Kazuki and Dai for the #3 spot
23. Keiji Tanaka (new)—See above. Dai coming back steals his "most handsome man on Team Japan" thunder too....
Wild Cards
Daisuke Takahashi :dev3:
Maxim Kovtun
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- Joined
- Apr 23, 2018
- Country
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Yeah, that’s been his plan all along, I think. I hope he can close out his career with title #7
If I was Javi I'd be looking at the field and kicking myself a little for not giving it another year.
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2018
I’m imagining the needle from the Upshot swinging around and giving everyone heart attacks now. [emoji23]
What this gp series has really spotlighted so far IMO is the chasm between the top 3 and the rest of the competitors.
None of Yuzuru, Nathan and Shoma have been perfect and all of them have things going against them (injury, school, difficulty to adapt to the new lenght of the fp (it's been ages since I've seen Shoma being so inconsistent)) and yet they've crushed the competition by the tens of points at each of their gp. Interestingly it's really similar to 2014-2015 where there were three skaters that in everybody's mind were clearly ahead of the pack(Yuzuru, Javier and during the first half of the season Tatsuki and during the second half of the season after his incredible 4cc Denis Ten). Only the season after that (the 2015-2016 one) there was a group of newcomers that could give the top echolons a run for their money.
This happened in the previous cycle too, where Yuzuru and Javier began to make a name for themselves from the 2011-2012 season onwards, while the surprise world medalist of the 2010-2011 season (kozuka and Gachinski) quickly plummeted in the standings.
It will be interesting if this cycle too the real contenders for the top will only emerge from next season onward or if some of the people that have failed our expectations so far (Kolyada, Bojang, in some way Zhou and Aliev too) will come back with a vegeance and throw my overthinking In the trash
None of Yuzuru, Nathan and Shoma have been perfect and all of them have things going against them (injury, school, difficulty to adapt to the new lenght of the fp (it's been ages since I've seen Shoma being so inconsistent)) and yet they've crushed the competition by the tens of points at each of their gp. Interestingly it's really similar to 2014-2015 where there were three skaters that in everybody's mind were clearly ahead of the pack(Yuzuru, Javier and during the first half of the season Tatsuki and during the second half of the season after his incredible 4cc Denis Ten). Only the season after that (the 2015-2016 one) there was a group of newcomers that could give the top echolons a run for their money.
This happened in the previous cycle too, where Yuzuru and Javier began to make a name for themselves from the 2011-2012 season onwards, while the surprise world medalist of the 2010-2011 season (kozuka and Gachinski) quickly plummeted in the standings.
It will be interesting if this cycle too the real contenders for the top will only emerge from next season onward or if some of the people that have failed our expectations so far (Kolyada, Bojang, in some way Zhou and Aliev too) will come back with a vegeance and throw my overthinking In the trash
I don't mean to underestimate the difficulty and commitment competitive skating takes, but it really does feel like Javi could stroll back into competition for another Euro title. Will he even need more than 1 quad in the sp? And he could probably get away with just 1 or 2 quads in the fp as well. He should just go for La Decima, kind of like Nadal's RG titles.
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2014
It's still hard to accept that he's retired :sad4:
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2018
Just joining the conversation. My first ranking on the forum.
1. Hanyu (heal quickly because I selfishly want to see this season's programs as many times as possible). I have recognized him as superior for the last several seasons, but this season is the first that, I am personally mesmerized. His jumps are the definition of "height and distance". Skating Skills are exquisite. Transitions. Everything, he is the height of the sport.
2. Chen. He has the competitive instinct to will himself near the top. Strong programs, hard work, focus, and innate talent are a great combination. (I have a little sorrow with Chen as I believe he will leave the sport prior to really living up to his immense potential to be GOAT levels. He has the potential to be, IMO, one of the most beautiful skaters, a la Hanyu.). Another note on Chen (I do love him), but his quads, proflicic as he is, are a bit "little" compared to many top skaters of similar stature.
3. Shoma--Always silver. His performances can make an impact. Love the triple axel on pause in the music.
4. Jun. I hestitated placing him so high. He has huge potential and just starting to embark to reach it
5. Messing. Huge jumps, endearing, can make a performance impact. He has limitations in areas but is intelligent in how he showcases his strengths, which are plenty.
6.Brezina--such pretty skating and JUMPS when executed, such unpretty music. Delighted for his successes this year, congratulations!
7. Samarin--I know he is not a favorite of fans, but has a strong short. Great jumps, speed, etc
8. Voronov--hard to keep him out of top 10 with 4 straight strong performances at Grand Prix qualifiers in last 2 years. The PCS is not his best friend, but I do like his long
9. Brown (delighted to place him on my list!). Many wishes for continued success and improvement. The jumps he does are beautiful, smooth, and big. Performance (ability to sell it) and skating are truly second to none.
10. All the underperforming favorites: Aliev (my favorite skater right now), Koylada, and Jin. Any one of these skaters could jump up to 4th with strong outing, or podium with a falter from top 3
1. Hanyu (heal quickly because I selfishly want to see this season's programs as many times as possible). I have recognized him as superior for the last several seasons, but this season is the first that, I am personally mesmerized. His jumps are the definition of "height and distance". Skating Skills are exquisite. Transitions. Everything, he is the height of the sport.
2. Chen. He has the competitive instinct to will himself near the top. Strong programs, hard work, focus, and innate talent are a great combination. (I have a little sorrow with Chen as I believe he will leave the sport prior to really living up to his immense potential to be GOAT levels. He has the potential to be, IMO, one of the most beautiful skaters, a la Hanyu.). Another note on Chen (I do love him), but his quads, proflicic as he is, are a bit "little" compared to many top skaters of similar stature.
3. Shoma--Always silver. His performances can make an impact. Love the triple axel on pause in the music.
4. Jun. I hestitated placing him so high. He has huge potential and just starting to embark to reach it
5. Messing. Huge jumps, endearing, can make a performance impact. He has limitations in areas but is intelligent in how he showcases his strengths, which are plenty.
6.Brezina--such pretty skating and JUMPS when executed, such unpretty music. Delighted for his successes this year, congratulations!
7. Samarin--I know he is not a favorite of fans, but has a strong short. Great jumps, speed, etc
8. Voronov--hard to keep him out of top 10 with 4 straight strong performances at Grand Prix qualifiers in last 2 years. The PCS is not his best friend, but I do like his long
9. Brown (delighted to place him on my list!). Many wishes for continued success and improvement. The jumps he does are beautiful, smooth, and big. Performance (ability to sell it) and skating are truly second to none.
10. All the underperforming favorites: Aliev (my favorite skater right now), Koylada, and Jin. Any one of these skaters could jump up to 4th with strong outing, or podium with a falter from top 3
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
Any more changes in your power rankings before the GPF?
For me, Shoma has pulled ahead of Nathan a tiny bit, because his point averages are higher than Nathan's so far in the qualifying rounds of the GP. Due to those same averages, Yuzu is still in the lead, but his injury may pull him down the rankings depending on how he performs after this.
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Shoma Uno
3. Natthan Chen
4. Michal Brezina
5. Sergei Voronov
6. Cha Jun Hwan
7. Keegan Meesing
8. Jason Brown
9. Alexander Samarin
10. Tomono Kazuki (a sentimental pick?)
For me, Shoma has pulled ahead of Nathan a tiny bit, because his point averages are higher than Nathan's so far in the qualifying rounds of the GP. Due to those same averages, Yuzu is still in the lead, but his injury may pull him down the rankings depending on how he performs after this.
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Shoma Uno
3. Natthan Chen
4. Michal Brezina
5. Sergei Voronov
6. Cha Jun Hwan
7. Keegan Meesing
8. Jason Brown
9. Alexander Samarin
10. Tomono Kazuki (a sentimental pick?)
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
Bumping this with a post GPF Update:
1. Yuzu with an * Because he's injured but he still has the highest SP, LP and Over-All scores this season.
2. Nathan showed he can hold it together when it matters and has extended his GPF reign to 2 years! Puts him definitely above Shoma for now.
3. Shoma's jump quality has been harshly evaluated by the judges this season so he will need to aim for more secure and rotated landings. Like it or not, if the jumps suffer, PCS also begins to suffer as well.
4. Jun-Lieeeet! A strong showing and a GPF medal. He's on the right track! He needs to watch the rotations as well because he tends to rotate more slowly in the air than other skaters.
5. Brezina continues to be solid in competition, but lacks the difficulty to challenge for higher rankings...maybe it's time to up the difficulty, put a second quad sal in the free?
6. Jason has come back strong with a win at Golden Spin and seems to have regained his competition confidence. Still, the time to quad is NOW. Put it in, fall on it, get up and try it till you make it.
7. Voronov is still Russia's no.1 Man. For years now I hear people ask 'What about the future?' well, Voronov has been here the whole time, getting to the final, winning medals. He deserves his spot on the World team.
8. Kolyada the potential is as present as ever and we get glimpses of it. When will it break free?
9. Keegan is extremely unpredictable, but his momentum has stalled a little. -Could it be that the earthquake in his home town has thrown him off?
10. Sentimental favorite pick this time is Daisuke Takahashi.
Post your updated rankings and other thoughts on the men's skating progress in general.
1. Yuzu with an * Because he's injured but he still has the highest SP, LP and Over-All scores this season.
2. Nathan showed he can hold it together when it matters and has extended his GPF reign to 2 years! Puts him definitely above Shoma for now.
3. Shoma's jump quality has been harshly evaluated by the judges this season so he will need to aim for more secure and rotated landings. Like it or not, if the jumps suffer, PCS also begins to suffer as well.
4. Jun-Lieeeet! A strong showing and a GPF medal. He's on the right track! He needs to watch the rotations as well because he tends to rotate more slowly in the air than other skaters.
5. Brezina continues to be solid in competition, but lacks the difficulty to challenge for higher rankings...maybe it's time to up the difficulty, put a second quad sal in the free?
6. Jason has come back strong with a win at Golden Spin and seems to have regained his competition confidence. Still, the time to quad is NOW. Put it in, fall on it, get up and try it till you make it.
7. Voronov is still Russia's no.1 Man. For years now I hear people ask 'What about the future?' well, Voronov has been here the whole time, getting to the final, winning medals. He deserves his spot on the World team.
8. Kolyada the potential is as present as ever and we get glimpses of it. When will it break free?
9. Keegan is extremely unpredictable, but his momentum has stalled a little. -Could it be that the earthquake in his home town has thrown him off?
10. Sentimental favorite pick this time is Daisuke Takahashi.
Post your updated rankings and other thoughts on the men's skating progress in general.
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After Tallinn, Golden Spin, and GPF!
1. Yuzuru Hanyu (-)
2. Nathan Chen (+1) — jumps ahead of Shoma following his second consecutive GPF title. However, his performances in the short and the free were not ideal. If Hanyu comes back in top or near-top form, it will be difficult for Nathan to challenge him. At the same time, I don’t think Nathan is even close to peaking yet.
3. Shoma Uno (-1)—Looking ahead to 4CCs and Worlds, Nathan not only won the battle at GPF, but he may well have won the war with the eternal Silver Prince. The judges could have placed Shoma in first following the short, and they could have ignored his URs and scratchy landings in the free, but they did not. And once those weaknesses are out in the open, it may be hard for Shoma to bounce back and challenge for #1 and 2.
4. Junhwan Cha (-)—With his GPF bronze, he has medaled at every event he has entered, now including a major international competition. If one of the top 3 falters or is injured, consistent Junliet will be right there to continue that streak.
5. Michal Brezina (-)—At GPF, he again showed that his recent success is no fluke, but a full-fledged Breznaissance. With Javi’s preparation ambiguous, Michal is now the frontrunner for the European title.
6. Jason Brown (+5)—Leap-frogs his way to #6 this week after taking gold at Golden Spin. While his free skate may have been flawed, his high-scoring short program shows that he can compete for top 5 on the strength of his GOEs and PCS. I don't even think he needs a quad.
7. Keegan Messing (+1)—Finished a disappointing 5th at GPF, though extenuating circumstances, first-time jitters, and home crowd pressure should be taken into account. Moreover, he showed that he can land 4Lz, a jump that seems to be as elusive as 4A right now.
8. Kazuki Tomono (+1)—Moves up due to the mess happening right below.
9. Alexander Samarin (-2)—After a disappointing third-place finish at Golden Spin, he moves down, but is now higher than his compatriots. At this point in time, Sasha seems to strike the most promising balance between consistency and tech content within his country, and he isn’t vulnerable to meltdowns the way Kolyada, Kovtun and Aliev are. I do believe the momentum is with him going into Nationals.
10. Mikhail Kolyada (-)—Misha is going to be European and World Champion one day (so I tell myself every night before I go to bed), just not this season. The stamina isn’t there, the jumps (even when landed) look iffy, and his failure to win gold at Golden Spin will be hard to come back from in terms of confidence. That said, his scoring potential is still so huge that I think he’ll make it to Euros, barring an implosion that lands him off the podium at Nats. In his current form, top 5 at Euros and top 10 at Worlds seems the best he—and Russia—can hope for.
11. Sergei Voronov (-4) / Maxim Kovtun / Dmitri Aliev (+4) — Predicting the Russian Nats podium/Euros team is hopeless, but I’m going to try, anyway—and I think spot #3 will be between these three. Voronov is a sentimental favorite, but his performances at GPF demonstrate why RusFed is so reluctant to put their support behind him. He may be the most consistent, but his technical ceiling is too low to compete with the top men, and it leaves little room for errors: to put it in perspective, his SkAm and GPF totals are within a point of Kolyada’s CoR meltdown. As for Kovtun, we only have one international competition (Tallinn Trophy, where he won gold) and a mixed bag of national results to go by, but he looks good for a podium finish, if not a win, if others falter. Aliev, meanwhile, moves up due to Samarin and Kolyada’s disappointing showings at Golden Spin. With his high scoring potential, he could grab the third spot or steal one of theirs.
12. Kevin Aymoz
13. Boyang Jin
14. Matteo Rizzo
15. Vincent Zhou (+4)
16. Morisi Kvitelashvili
17. Nam Nguyen
18. Deniss Vasiljevs
Wild Cards and National Team Spoilers
Japan: Daisuke Takahashi, Keiji Tanaka, Sota Yamamoto
Russia: Andrei Lazukin, Artur Dmitriev, Jr., Alexey Erokhov (edit: probably not, as he still looks to be injured)
US: Alexei Krasnozhon
Canada: Roman Sadovsky
Javier Fernandez (for Euros)
The gap between the top three and the rest of the field is still depressingly huge. With his consistency, Junhwan has the most potential to challenge, but he is still so young and rough around the edges, and his PCS reflects that. In Hanyu’s absence, Jason has the most quality, but without a quad it will be hard for him to challenge for the very top. Brezina is fun to watch, but he might have hit his ceiling in Helsinki. I just wish my bronze lutz boys would get it together..
1. Yuzuru Hanyu (-)
2. Nathan Chen (+1) — jumps ahead of Shoma following his second consecutive GPF title. However, his performances in the short and the free were not ideal. If Hanyu comes back in top or near-top form, it will be difficult for Nathan to challenge him. At the same time, I don’t think Nathan is even close to peaking yet.
3. Shoma Uno (-1)—Looking ahead to 4CCs and Worlds, Nathan not only won the battle at GPF, but he may well have won the war with the eternal Silver Prince. The judges could have placed Shoma in first following the short, and they could have ignored his URs and scratchy landings in the free, but they did not. And once those weaknesses are out in the open, it may be hard for Shoma to bounce back and challenge for #1 and 2.
4. Junhwan Cha (-)—With his GPF bronze, he has medaled at every event he has entered, now including a major international competition. If one of the top 3 falters or is injured, consistent Junliet will be right there to continue that streak.
5. Michal Brezina (-)—At GPF, he again showed that his recent success is no fluke, but a full-fledged Breznaissance. With Javi’s preparation ambiguous, Michal is now the frontrunner for the European title.
6. Jason Brown (+5)—Leap-frogs his way to #6 this week after taking gold at Golden Spin. While his free skate may have been flawed, his high-scoring short program shows that he can compete for top 5 on the strength of his GOEs and PCS. I don't even think he needs a quad.
7. Keegan Messing (+1)—Finished a disappointing 5th at GPF, though extenuating circumstances, first-time jitters, and home crowd pressure should be taken into account. Moreover, he showed that he can land 4Lz, a jump that seems to be as elusive as 4A right now.
8. Kazuki Tomono (+1)—Moves up due to the mess happening right below.
9. Alexander Samarin (-2)—After a disappointing third-place finish at Golden Spin, he moves down, but is now higher than his compatriots. At this point in time, Sasha seems to strike the most promising balance between consistency and tech content within his country, and he isn’t vulnerable to meltdowns the way Kolyada, Kovtun and Aliev are. I do believe the momentum is with him going into Nationals.
10. Mikhail Kolyada (-)—Misha is going to be European and World Champion one day (so I tell myself every night before I go to bed), just not this season. The stamina isn’t there, the jumps (even when landed) look iffy, and his failure to win gold at Golden Spin will be hard to come back from in terms of confidence. That said, his scoring potential is still so huge that I think he’ll make it to Euros, barring an implosion that lands him off the podium at Nats. In his current form, top 5 at Euros and top 10 at Worlds seems the best he—and Russia—can hope for.
11. Sergei Voronov (-4) / Maxim Kovtun / Dmitri Aliev (+4) — Predicting the Russian Nats podium/Euros team is hopeless, but I’m going to try, anyway—and I think spot #3 will be between these three. Voronov is a sentimental favorite, but his performances at GPF demonstrate why RusFed is so reluctant to put their support behind him. He may be the most consistent, but his technical ceiling is too low to compete with the top men, and it leaves little room for errors: to put it in perspective, his SkAm and GPF totals are within a point of Kolyada’s CoR meltdown. As for Kovtun, we only have one international competition (Tallinn Trophy, where he won gold) and a mixed bag of national results to go by, but he looks good for a podium finish, if not a win, if others falter. Aliev, meanwhile, moves up due to Samarin and Kolyada’s disappointing showings at Golden Spin. With his high scoring potential, he could grab the third spot or steal one of theirs.
12. Kevin Aymoz
13. Boyang Jin
14. Matteo Rizzo
15. Vincent Zhou (+4)
16. Morisi Kvitelashvili
17. Nam Nguyen
18. Deniss Vasiljevs
Wild Cards and National Team Spoilers
Japan: Daisuke Takahashi, Keiji Tanaka, Sota Yamamoto
Russia: Andrei Lazukin, Artur Dmitriev, Jr., Alexey Erokhov (edit: probably not, as he still looks to be injured)
US: Alexei Krasnozhon
Canada: Roman Sadovsky
Javier Fernandez (for Euros)
The gap between the top three and the rest of the field is still depressingly huge. With his consistency, Junhwan has the most potential to challenge, but he is still so young and rough around the edges, and his PCS reflects that. In Hanyu’s absence, Jason has the most quality, but without a quad it will be hard for him to challenge for the very top. Brezina is fun to watch, but he might have hit his ceiling in Helsinki. I just wish my bronze lutz boys would get it together..
I originally had Shoma above Nathan too on the premise that his jump technique wasn't going to be so closely scrutinized, but post GPF that appears to be a faulty premise, so Nathan surges ahead. I do think that Shoma really should get more credit in for components in comparison to Nathan, but alas, that's not how judging works, apparently. Yuzu is still #1--he still has the highest segment and combined scores, and I think he would most likely have won GPF quite handily had he been able to compete. Get well soon, Yuzu.
Jun is so impressively consistent (unlike so many of the other men, sigh), I'm starting to come around to the view that he's #4.
Jun is so impressively consistent (unlike so many of the other men, sigh), I'm starting to come around to the view that he's #4.
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2017
You heard it here first: Kovtun will win Russian nationals :laugh15:
