2017 Jr Worlds Mens SP

[Chemistry66]

For fun, here's how multiple spots for 2018 Junior Worlds would shape up based on the SP standings:

(Reminder to anyone reading this: This is NOT the final spots. Just based on SP. In case anyone thinks this is actually serious)

Qualification rules in this post here if you need a refresher

3 spots

Russia (1 + 4 = 5)
USA (5 + 8 = 13)

2 spots

South Korea (2 + 15 = 17)
France (6 + 18 = 24)
Canada (7 + 9 = 16) - dropping down from 3 skaters
Ukraine (10, only skater) - up from 1 skater
Japan (12 +14 = 26)

So things to consider for the FS:

- USA is borderline for maintaining 3 spots, especially after Andrew self-destructed. They can do it, but minimal placement shifting could cause them to miss by a placement or two.
- Canada could still see 3 spots next year with some slight shifting. They're close.
- Japan is seriously close to even losing their second spot, wow.
- Israel and China at the moment are back down to 1 spot each, unfortunately
- Great Britain could possibly get a second spot if Graham can move up one!

 

[sheetz]

I hope they begin to allow quads now that we're seeing about 10 competitors all skating cleanly with the same jumps.

 

[TMC]

SONDRE! I’m so happy for you, personal best and all. Easier jumps than many, but clean and great skating, paying attention to music and details. One of a few with level 4 on the step sequence. Lovely performance… and the joy in K&C :luv17:

Good luck with the free skate!

Have to laugh when the host pronounce his name like ’boy’. This is Sondre’s last junior worlds. Wish there was another Norwegian boy to follow, but I don’t think there is, at least not next season

I so hope Sondre will get the minimum tech for worlds next season. Need a 3-axel for that I suppose.

I'm glad I'm not the only Sondre-fan here!

 

[cathlen]

So first of all, I really miss Ted commentary... It's just not right to watch juniors without hearing him!

I realy, really love Kevin Aymoz Go Kevin~! Dima was just exquisite Jun Hwan was simply a pleasure to watch (minus 3A entry, ugh) :luv17: Easiness which Nic has to connect with audience is just amazing! I was reminded why he's my favourite Canadian single skater these days once again I've watched about 1/3 of skates, most of which were really good! Yaroslav Paniot finally skated clean, showed that potential So did Vincent Zhou. And someone who has chosen the SP music for Samarin is genious. The program itself is realy nothing special, but the music make it really enjoyable for me. The level in Juniors these nowaday is really high! A little sad to see that young Japanese skaters doesn't really keep up (yet). Koshiro Shimada did only 2A... I guess Team Japan prays Sota Yamamoto will recover finally and won't get injured any soon.

Anyway, can't wait to see the Free! I'm sure many of these guys will be future stars in seniors

 

[hippomoomin]

Just realized Aliev and Alisa Fedichkina have the same coach. Is he a good jump coach?

Aliev looks petite on ice, and his jumps appear somewhat small. But then his bio says he is 5'8" (173 cm). The camera is deceiving. Anyway, I found him very likable.

 

[mrrice]

I still have faith in Vincent and Alexei. They both have great Free Programs and if they skate well, I think our 3rd spot will be safe. There's a good chance that Vincent come move up and hopefully medal.

 

[chuckm]

For fun, here's how multiple spots for 2018 Junior Worlds would shape up based on the SP standings:

(Reminder to anyone reading this: This is NOT the final spots. Just based on SP. In case anyone thinks this is actually serious)

Qualification rules in this post here if you need a refresher

3 spots

Russia (1 + 4 = 5)
USA (5 + 8 = 13)

2 spots

South Korea (2 + 15 = 17)
France (6 + 18 = 24)
Canada (7 + 9 = 16) - dropping down from 3 skaters
Ukraine (10, only skater) - up from 1 skater
Japan (12 +14 = 26)

The FS will have much greater impact on the standings since some of the top competitors have planned quads and others don't have consistent quads.

Aliev - has one planned quad in his FS. One weakness: he has a hard time controlling his nerves in major competitions.
Cha - did not have a quad in his JGPF FS, but reportedly has upgraded his FS since then.
Samarin - has two planned quads. He tends to tire towards the end of his FS and gets a little sloppy.
Petrov - has never successfully landed a quad in competition.
Aymoz - had no quad in his FS at Euros.
Zhou - has 3 planned quads in his FS, including a 4z and two 4s
Krasnozhon - has planned a 4lo
Sadovsky - has a 4S. He has more problems with the 3a than with the quad.
Nadeau - not sure what he has planned. He had no quad in his Bavarian Open Jr Men FS.
Newberry - did not have a quad in his Euros FS.
Orzel - 4t planned in his FS.

So things to consider for the FS:

- USA is borderline for maintaining 3 spots, especially after Andrew self-destructed. They can do it, but minimal placement shifting could cause them to miss by a placement or two.

Andrew not making the FS has zero impact on the placements of the two remaining US skaters.
Vincent Zhou, in 5th, with 3 quads, can make a move up at least one place, since Petrov has no quad. If one of Samarin or Aliev has a rough FS and Vincent is clean, he could move onto the podium.
Krasnozhon, in 8th, can still get a high score even if his 4lo isn't ratified, as he has a packed FS. He could easily pass Aymoz technically (he beat him by 16 points in the SLO JGP).

- Canada could still see 3 spots next year with some slight shifting. They're close.

Nadeau is currently 7th and Sadovsky 9th. Nadeau has been recovering from injury so may not have a quad, and Sadovsky has struggled with 3a in his FSs. They would have to move up a combined 3 places and both would have to turn in clean FSs.

Don't see how 5+8 is "borderline" and 7+9 is "close"

 

[Chemistry66]

Andrew not making the FS has zero impact on the placements of the two remaining US skaters.
Vincent Zhou, in 5th, with 3 quads, can make a move up at least one place, since Petrov has no quad. If one of Samarin or Aliev has a rough FS and Vincent is clean, he could move onto the podium.
Krasnozhon, in 8th, can still get a high score even if his 4lo isn't ratified, as he has a packed FS. He could easily pass Aymoz technically (he beat him by 16 points in the SLO JGP).


- Canada could still see 3 spots next year with some slight shifting. They're close.

Nadeau is currently 7th and Sadovsky 9th. Nadeau has been recovering from injury so may not have a quad, and Sadovsky has struggled with 3a in his FSs. They would have to move up a combined 3 places and both would have to turn in clean FSs.

Andrew not making the FS does impact the US in terms of 3 spots, in a sense. Obviously the other two could (and probably will) easily place high enough on their own. But 3 strong skaters contending is more helpful since it would give them an additional safety net should a skater bomb. Since Andrew already bombed, there's no more safety net. That's what I was talking about.


As for Canada, I know Nadeau is 7th and Sadovsky is 9th and that they need to move up 3 places combined total. I still think they're the most likely to take advantage if others have some strange ice is slippery moments.

Don't see how 5+8 is "borderline" and 7+9 is "close"

...my train of thought as I was typing, and semantics?

 

[mcq]

For fun, here's how multiple spots for 2018 Junior Worlds would shape up based on the SP standings:

(Reminder to anyone reading this: This is NOT the final spots. Just based on SP. In case anyone thinks this is actually serious)

Qualification rules in this post here if you need a refresher

3 spots

Russia (1 + 4 = 5)
USA (5 + 8 = 13)

2 spots

South Korea (2 + 15 = 17)
France (6 + 18 = 24)
Canada (7 + 9 = 16) - dropping down from 3 skaters
Ukraine (10, only skater) - up from 1 skater
Japan (12 +14 = 26)

So things to consider for the FS:

- USA is borderline for maintaining 3 spots, especially after Andrew self-destructed. They can do it, but minimal placement shifting could cause them to miss by a placement or two.
- Canada could still see 3 spots next year with some slight shifting. They're close.
- Japan is seriously close to even losing their second spot, wow.
- Israel and China at the moment are back down to 1 spot each, unfortunately
- Great Britain could possibly get a second spot if Graham can move up one!

For perspective, this is the planned FS layout (I would only mention the quads and 3A) for the top 12 men
Aliev - 4T, 3A2T, 3A
Cha - 4S2T, 3A, 3Alo3S, 4S
Samarin - 4T3T, 4T, 3A2T, 3A
Petrov -3A, 3A2T
Zhou - 4Lz (!!!) 4S3T, 3A2T, 4S, 3A
Aymoz - 3A, 3A3T
Nadeau - 3A3t, 4T, 3A
Kraznoshon - 4Lo, 3A3T, 3A
Sadovsky - 4S, 3A2T, 3A
Paniot - 4T3T, 4T, 3A
NewBerry - 3A3T
Shimada - 3A

So yeah, judging from this there will be a lot of changes in the final placement. Depending on how they deliver.

 

[gourry]

Cha - did not have a quad in his JGPF FS, but reportedly has upgraded his FS since then.

Yes he landed a beautiful 4S in his JGPF FS. Rumor has it that he is planning 2 4S and a 3A-halfL-3S combination this time and I'm more curious about his 3A-halfL-3S since 3A is not his best jump and he had had some < and fall with his 3F-halfL-3S in the past iirc.

I watched only the last three groups of mens SP, and there were so many clean programs it's impressive. Totally loved Jun Hwan:luv17:, Dima, Kevin and Samarin. I don't really follow junior mens thoroughly so this was my first time to watch Samarin, and he reminded me of Brian Joubert a bit with his charisma and charm.
I don't get Petrov and his PCS though.

 

[LadyB]

FS could be a game changer again, considering how close the top group is scorewise.
I'm happy for the time being, but I'm not getting too confident. Time difference is no good for me, I'm working all the way through. Thank god for videos.
Loved Nicolas' programme again, just like last year. Hope someone can sort him for the jumps over the summer months. He's surely got the moves.

 

[4everchan]

FS could be a game changer again, considering how close the top group is scorewise.
I'm happy for the time being, but I'm not getting too confident. Time difference is no good for me, I'm working all the way through. Thank god for videos.
Loved Nicolas' programme again, just like last year. Hope someone can sort him for the jumps over the summer months. He's surely got the moves.

Nicolas is just coming back from injury... he has the jumps his 3A is giant!!! so is his 3F... He has been working on different quads as well...pretty much all of them but the flip. He missed the entire JGP season because of his injury and when I saw him at Nationals, he was very rusty.... he even popped the loop in his SP... so hopefully, he skates well tomorrow. At Nationals he landed a quad loop in his FP with two gorgeous 3A I am not worried for his jumps, more for his readiness to compete here.

 

[breadstal]

I think they should allow one quad in short imo And max two in free.

 

[moriel]

I think they should not allow quads in short.
The kids will jump enough of them as seniors, for real.

 

[chuckm]

Andrew Torgashev was coming back from injury, too---a broken ankle. He missed a whole year of competition, and he just returned this fall. Perhaps that ankle was bothering him in the SP, hence the popped jumps.

 

[cathlen]

I think they should not allow quads in short.
The kids will jump enough of them as seniors, for real.

Agree. When you're fifteen (and most quadsters in this competion are), you can go senior and jump all the quads you want.

 

[4everchan]

i think the main factor remains who can land or not the 3A for these boys....

 

[breadstal]

I think it's better than having 3 in free :confused2:

 

[4everchan]

i think not having quads in the short is good for kids... it shows them that they need to work on other aspects than just jumping...

For instance, what is the difference between Conrad who landed all his jumps well and the top 4-5 guys ? Quality of skating, steps, transitions, spins... etc Yes he does have quads... Yes he can make up some ground perhaps over a couple boys who don't have them in the free... but it sends the right message to these young jumpers : develop everything.

I am quite happy with how this works for the boys. It was fun to watch all of them last night... even the early groups... because to get their TES minimums, those early group boys had to have some decent qualities about their elements as well. It wasn't always on display with the nerves of competing for some but even from the ones who didn't make it to the Free, there were a couple really fun skaters to watch.... turkish boy, the mexican boy too.. etc

 

[silverfoxes]

Andrew Torgashev was coming back from injury, too---a broken ankle. He missed a whole year of competition, and he just returned this fall. Perhaps that ankle was bothering him in the SP, hence the popped jumps.

He competed last summer, so he's been back on the ice for at least 9 months. I am no expert on broken ankles, but it happened to him in June 2015...not sure I buy that as an excuse for popping jumps in March 2017, unless he specifically said that it was bothering him.