2021-22 Potential GP Assignments

[haribobo]

Assuming we go back to original format...

For men and ladies, roughly 36 spots assuming 2 assignments each

MEN
14 spots - Chen, Hanyu, Uno, Brown, Rizzo, Messing, Cha, Moris K., Kagiyama, Aymoz, Grassl, Kolyada, Vasiljevs are all top 20 in World Standings and SB score. Add Semenenko due to 8th place at Worlds.

11 spots - top 24 World standings- Samarin, Aliev, Jin, Nguyen, Danielian, Pulkinen, Tanaka, Brezina, Gumennik, Hiwatashi, Fa

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato

LADIES
15 spots - Kihira, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Trusova, Tennell, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Ryabova, Yelim, Karen Chen, Kiibus, Haein, Schott. Add Loena and Mikutina for being top 12 @ Worlds.

9 spots - top 24 World Standings- Kostornaia, Eunsoo, Samodurova, Young, Medvedeva, Bell, Paganini, Higuchi, Starr

5 spots - top 20 SB score- Schizas, Taljegard, Zundert, Feigin, Urushadze

That is 29 spots. Top contendors for remaining 7ish spots...although I imagine some of these taking priority over the 5 SB score skaters from above..

USA- Amber Glenn, Alysa Liu, Audrey Shin
CAN- Schumacher, Bausback, Daleman, Ruiter
RUS- Valieva, Usacheva, Khromykh, Nugumanova
JPN- Matsuike, Mihara, Kawabe
CHN- Hongyi Chen

 

[haribobo]

Pairs is always basically whoever is left competing and uninjured...

DANCE- 30 teams for 60 spots

18 teams- top 24 SB and WS- Sinitsina, Hubbell, Gilles, Guignard, Chock, Stepanova, Fear, Wang, Hurtado, Kaliszek, Hawayek, Zagorski, FBS, Lajoie, Reed, Galyavieva, Muller, Nazarova

6 teams- Top 24 WS- Papadakis, Smart, Kazakova, Soucisse, Lauriault, Carreira

2 teams- Top 20 SB- Lopareva, Komatsubara

So that is 26 teams so far.

Leftovers:
USA- Green, Cesanek, McNamara
RUS- Skoptcova, Shevchenko, Khudaiberdieva, Morozov
CAN- Sales, Fabbri

 

[moonvine]

Assuming we go back to original format...

For men and ladies, roughly 36 spots assuming 2 assignments each

MEN
14 spots - Chen, Hanyu, Uno, Brown, Rizzo, Messing, Cha, Moris K., Kagiyama, Aymoz, Grassl, Kolyada, Vasiljevs are all top 20 in World Standings and SB score. Add Semenenko due to 8th place at Worlds.

11 spots - top 24 World standings- Samarin, Aliev, Jin, Nguyen, Danielian, Pulkinen, Tanaka, Brezina, Gumennik, Hiwatashi, Fa

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato

LADIES
15 spots - Kihira, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Trusova, Tennell, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Ryabova, Yelim, Karen Chen, Kiibus, Haein, Schott. Add Loena and Mikutina for being top 12 @ Worlds.

9 spots - top 24 World Standings- Kostornaia, Eunsoo, Samodurova, Young, Medvedeva, Bell, Paganini, Higuchi, Starr

5 spots - top 20 SB score- Schizas, Taljegard, Zundert, Feigin, Urushadze

That is 29 spots. Top contendors for remaining 7ish spots...although I imagine some of these taking priority over the 5 SB score skaters from above..

USA- Amber Glenn, Alysa Liu, Audrey Shin
CAN- Schumacher, Bausback, Daleman, Ruiter
RUS- Valieva, Usacheva, Khromykh, Nugumanova
JPN- Matsuike, Mihara, Kawabe
CHN- Hongyi Chen

Jimmy Ma!! Make it so. What about host picks?

 

[Ziotic]

Assuming we go back to original format...

For men and ladies, roughly 36 spots assuming 2 assignments each

MEN
14 spots - Chen, Hanyu, Uno, Brown, Rizzo, Messing, Cha, Moris K., Kagiyama, Aymoz, Grassl, Kolyada, Vasiljevs are all top 20 in World Standings and SB score. Add Semenenko due to 8th place at Worlds.

11 spots - top 24 World standings- Samarin, Aliev, Jin, Nguyen, Danielian, Pulkinen, Tanaka, Brezina, Gumennik, Hiwatashi, Fa

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato

LADIES
15 spots - Kihira, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Trusova, Tennell, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Ryabova, Yelim, Karen Chen, Kiibus, Haein, Schott. Add Loena and Mikutina for being top 12 @ Worlds.

9 spots - top 24 World Standings- Kostornaia, Eunsoo, Samodurova, Young, Medvedeva, Bell, Paganini, Higuchi, Starr

5 spots - top 20 SB score- Schizas, Taljegard, Zundert, Feigin, Urushadze

That is 29 spots. Top contendors for remaining 7ish spots...although I imagine some of these taking priority over the 5 SB score skaters from above..

USA- Amber Glenn, Alysa Liu, Audrey Shin
CAN- Schumacher, Bausback, Daleman, Ruiter
RUS- Valieva, Usacheva, Khromykh, Nugumanova
JPN- Matsuike, Mihara, Kawabe
CHN- Hongyi Chen

There are already too many Russian names if they each get two. So I doubt we see Nugumanova/Frolova/Sinistra but it will be interesting to see who Russia submits

 

[chasingneverland]

There are already too many Russian names if they each get two. So I doubt we see Nugumanova/Frolova/Sinistra but it will be interesting to see who Russia submits

They won't plan for everyone to get two, outside of Anna, Sasha, Liza, Kamila, Daria, and maybe Maiia??.

 

[Ziotic]

They won't plan for everyone to get two, outside of Anna, Sasha, Liza, Kamila, Daria, and maybe Maiia??.

I’m sure Zhenya will get two if she competes

 

[Seven Sisters]

Remind me. If someone earns a Seasons Best score at the World Team Trophy, does it count for these purposes?

 

[Dreamer57]

What about Aliona?

I think Anna Liza Sasha Kamila Daria Maiia, Aliona and Evgenia
then 2 for any out of Sinitsyna/Frolova/Nugumanova/Samodurova/Guliakova
This is so tough to decide...

 

[lurkerghost1]

Remind me. If someone earns a Seasons Best score at the World Team Trophy, does it count for these purposes?

Yes.

Assuming we go back to original format...

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

Why top 20 SB score? top 24 is also guaranteed. But also, I would be really surprised if the GP assignments follow the usual SB and WS top 24 rankings.

For example, for Russia, in addition to Trusova, Shcherbakova, Kostornaia, Tuktamysheva, and Medvedeva if she competes, they absolutely want Valieva, Usacheva, and Khromykh all getting two spots before Samodurova even gets one. That's already 16 spots, so maybe then Samodurova could get spot 17 and the host spot is TBD. But Rusfed probably wants Sinitsyna and Nugumanova to get those two spots, so maybe they just won't enter Samodurova at all, like Gubanova for GP 2019. Still they will have to negotiate to get spots for the three juniors...

For Japan, after Kihira, Sakamoto, Miyahara, and Higuchi, the next skaters likely to be highest on the substitute list are Yokoi and Honda. But as you said they also should try to get spots for Kawabe, Matsuike, Mihara, maybe Kawabata before Yokoi and definitely before Honda. Same for the US getting GPs for Liu, Glenn, and Shin before Starr Andrews.

But then once those feds are getting spots for their skaters not on the lists, Korea could come in and say "well we want Seoyeong Wi on the GP" and China will be like "we want Amy Lin getting two spots" etc. etc. so it becomes a big mess.

 

[RemyRose]

Assuming we go back to original format...

For men and ladies, roughly 36 spots assuming 2 assignments each

MEN
14 spots - Chen, Hanyu, Uno, Brown, Rizzo, Messing, Cha, Moris K., Kagiyama, Aymoz, Grassl, Kolyada, Vasiljevs are all top 20 in World Standings and SB score. Add Semenenko due to 8th place at Worlds.

11 spots - top 24 World standings- Samarin, Aliev, Jin, Nguyen, Danielian, Pulkinen, Brezina, Gumennik, Hiwatashi, Fa

6 spots- top 20 SB score (leaving space to perhaps add 4 more later due to WTT)- Yan Han, Frangipani, Britschgi, Selevko, Milyukov, Majorov

So that is 31 spots. Leaving 5 more to use among US, CAN, RUS, and JPN skaters. Top contendors IMO...

USA- Paniot, Naumov, Zhou, Ma
CAN- Sadovsky, Circelli, Phan, Orzel, Nadeau
RUS- Ignatov, Kondratyuk, Mozalev
JPN- Tomono, Shun Sato

Some of this is off.

Top 12 Worlds have 2 regardless of WR/SB. Chen, Kagiyama, Hanyu, Uno, Kolyada, Messing, Brown, Semenenko, Aymoz, Cha, Rizzo, Grassl.

48 spots left:

Your top 24 WR is off.

Top 24 WR (1 spot): Aliev, Jin, Kvitelashvili, Samarin, Danielian, Mozalev, Nguyen, Gumennik, Pulkinen, Sato, Selevko, Vasiljevs, and Yan.

--Brezina, Hiwatashi, and Fa are out of the top 24.

35 spots left:

Who know what they will do with the top 24 SB. Outside of those who qualified for the FS at Worlds, that list is nothing but Europeans. How that sits with all 6 host feds, remains to be seen (some of their skaters will be unfairly shafted for guys who scored a lot less).

 

[LiamForeman]

Remind me. If someone earns a Seasons Best score at the World Team Trophy, does it count for these purposes?

What difference does that make really, in the end? The skaters at WTT are the top in the world and already have a good world standing/rank. Now if they sub Maiia in for Liza that could help out, but she wouldn't even be eligible for it.

 

[Colonel Green]

What difference does that make really, in the end? The skaters at WTT are the top in the world and already have a good world standing/rank. Now if they sub Maiia in for Liza that could help out, but she wouldn't even be eligible for it.

Not so, a number of skaters are being sent who didn’t get to go to Worlds (in particular, most or all of the Canadian team, but also three of the four French singles skaters).

 

[haribobo]

Ladies World Standings after 2018-19 is dropped. Very rough calculations, rounded a bit. I did not reduce 2019-20 to 70%

1-5
Shcherbakova 3370
Trusova 3000
Kihira 2970
Tennell 2360
Kostornaia 2340
----------
6-10
Sakamoto 2120
Karen Chen 1950
Young 1890
Tuktamysheva 1700
Yelim 1630
----------
11-15
Ryabova 1610
Eunsoo 1430
Kiibus 1400
Satoko 1370
Haein 1290
------
16-20
Higuchi 1230
Tornaghi 1180
Kurakova 1170
Schott 1130
Mikutina 1120
----------
21-24
Valieva 1100
Starr 1080
Glenn 1050
Urushadze 1050

Others:
Samodurova 1030
Paganini 1010
Liu 970
Peltonen 960
Usacheva 960
Bell 960
Medvedeva 900
Feigin 880
Zagitova 830
Loena 790
Yokoi 400

Tursynbaeva will lose all her points and fall completely out of the rankings....

So Bell, Paganini, Samodurova, Medvedeva, Zagitova and Tursy are expected to fall out of the top 24, and be replaced by Valieva, Glenn, Urushadze, Tornaghi, Kurakova, and Mikutina

 

[Sk8D8]

Ladies World Standings after 2018-19 is dropped. Very rough calculations, rounded a bit. I did not reduce 2019-20 to 70%

1-5
Shcherbakova 3370
Trusova 3000
Kihira 2970
Tennell 2360
Kostornaia 2340
----------
6-10
Sakamoto 2120
Karen Chen 1950
Young 1890
Tuktamysheva 1700
Yelim 1630
----------
11-15
Ryabova 1610
Eunsoo 1430
Kiibus 1400
Satoko 1370
Haein 1290
------
16-20
Higuchi 1230
Tornaghi 1180
Kurakova 1170
Schott 1130
Mikutina 1120
----------
21-24
Valieva 1100
Starr 1080
Glenn 1050
Urushadze 1050

Others:
Samodurova 1030
Paganini 1010
Liu 970
Peltonen 960
Usacheva 960
Bell 960
Medvedeva 900
Zagitova 830
Loena 790
Feigin 730
Yokoi 400

Tursynbaeva will lose all her points and fall completely out of the rankings....

So Bell, Paganini, Samodurova, Medvedeva, Zagitova and Tursy are expected to fall out of the top 24, and be replaced by Valieva, Glenn, Urushadze, Tornaghi, Kurakova, and Mikutina

When do they drop 2018/19?

 

[Colonel Green]

When do they drop 2018/19?

When the next season formally starts mid-year.

 

[Lzbee]

Ladies World Standings after 2018-19 is dropped. Very rough calculations, rounded a bit. I did not reduce 2019-20 to 70%

1-5
Shcherbakova 3370
Trusova 3000
Kihira 2970
Tennell 2360
Kostornaia 2340
----------
6-10
Sakamoto 2120
Karen Chen 1950
Young 1890
Tuktamysheva 1700
Yelim 1630
----------
11-15
Ryabova 1610
Eunsoo 1430
Kiibus 1400
Satoko 1370
Haein 1290
------
16-20
Higuchi 1230
Tornaghi 1180
Kurakova 1170
Schott 1130
Mikutina 1120
----------
21-24
Valieva 1100
Starr 1080
Glenn 1050
Urushadze 1050

Others:
Samodurova 1030
Paganini 1010
Liu 970
Peltonen 960
Usacheva 960
Bell 960
Medvedeva 900
Zagitova 830
Loena 790
Feigin 730
Yokoi 400

Tursynbaeva will lose all her points and fall completely out of the rankings....

So Bell, Paganini, Samodurova, Medvedeva, Zagitova and Tursy are expected to fall out of the top 24, and be replaced by Valieva, Glenn, Urushadze, Tornaghi, Kurakova, and Mikutina

How come Hendrickx ends up with less world standing points than Mikutina even though she finished higher at worlds?

 

[haribobo]

In 2020 they dropped the previous year off on April 20.

 

[Sk8D8]

How come Hendrickx ends up with less world standing points than Mikutina even though she finished higher at worlds?

I think that is because she didn’t earn any points in 2019/2020

 

[chuckm]

I looked up both ladies on the ISU WR. The Worlds point difference between the two was 214 points, but for the 2019-2020 season, Mikutina had 649 points, while Hendrickx was out with injury for the entire season. 70% of 649 is 384, which is greater than the 214 Worlds point gap between the two. So Mikutina comes out on top, even with reduced points. And if the ISU doesn't reduce the 2019-2020 points, the WR point spread between the two becomes even greater.

 

[haribobo]

Men World Standings after 2018-19 is dropped. Very rough calculations, rounded a bit. I did not reduce 2019-20 to 70%

1-5
Hanyu 3230
Chen 2400
Brown 2320
Kagiyama 2260
Aliev 2250
----------
6-10
Rizzo 2060
Grassl 2050
Moris 2020
Jin 1970
Messing 1930
-----------
11-15
Uno 1910
Aymoz 1790
Samarin 1780
Cha 1660
Vasiljevs 1440
----------
16-20
Danielian 1430
Mozalev 1370
Nam 1340
Selevko 1190
Gumennik 1170
---------
21-24
Camden 1160
Shun Sato 1140
Tanaka 1120
Ignatov 1080
---------
Others
Bychenko 1040
Litvintsev 1020
Fa 990
Tomono 940
Torgashev 870
Shmuratko 840
Tomoki 820
Kolyada 790
Sadovsky 740
Frangipani 700
Brezina 630
Zhou 240

Fell out of top 24: Kolyada, Brezina, Tomoki, Fa
Added to top 24: Sato, Mozalev, Selevko, Ignatov