Four Continents: Predictions Game Round 3

[tlk]

Dance:
Virtue/Moir
Shibutani/Shibutani
Chock/Bates
Weaver/Poje
Hubbell/Donahue

Ladies:
Daleman
Chen
Higuchi
Chartrand
Bell
Nagasu

Men:
Hanyu
Chen
Uno
Chan
Brown
Jin

Pairs:
Sui/Han
Duhamel/Radford
Yu/Zhang
Ilyushechkina/Moskovich
Scimeca/Knierim

 

[TGee]

MEN:
1. Patrick CHAN (CAN) (Everything is courageous given the likely splats, so I'm predicting on consistency and trends rather than expecting SBs)
2. Yuzuru HANYU (JPN) (still waiting for everything to come together this season...)
3. Nathan CHEN (USA) (wish Rafe and Marina would both be with him at the boards and KnC ... so we could see the max tech excellence and emerging PCS Nathan at the same event)
4. Shoma UNO (JPN) (will he be on?)
5. Kevin REYNOLDS (CAN) (consistently creeping up in his comeback...not likely to miss his 6 quads, and the 3A is solid now)
6. Boyang JIN (CHN) (When he's off, he's really off... and he's been off too much this season)


LADIES:
1. Kaetlyn OSMOND (CAN) (Watch out for the revised 7 triple FS, now that she's had time to lock it down...)
2. Wakaba HIGUCHI (JPN) (when she's on and clean, WOW)
3. Gabrielle DALEMAN (CAN) (she's done with being 4th...)
4. Mariah BELL (USA) (Feel she's been better appreciated by international panels...)
5. Mai MIHARA (JPN) (May suffer by comparison as the skating princess in a group of strong women...)
6. Alaine CHARTRAND (CAN) (Was much improved with Pima SP back at nationals despite injury, surprise very possible....)


PAIRS:
1. Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD (CAN)
2. Xiaoyu YU / Hao ZHANG (CHN) (snoozy programs, but this switched team has a vibe and and the tech)
3. Liubov ILYUSHECHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH (CAN) (SBS jump issues notwithstanding, they are delivering the full package...)
4. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN (CHN) (not convinced that they are fully back...)
5. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER (USA) (Their recovery is progressing, and Marina's programs are a joy...)
6. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM (USA) (Wild card IMO, good tech, but ....uncomfortable on the emphasis placed on their being a married couple...get more intensity from good acting by I/M)


DANCE:
1. Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR (CAN)
2. Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE (CAN) (seeing this as the season that they don't peak too early....)
3. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI (USA) (programs not selling as well this year to global audience whatever my own preferences..)
4. Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER (CAN) (could go up or down depending on the levels they deliver in footwork)
5. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE (USA)
6. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES (USA) (ditto on the programs not seeming to be working well outside NA)

 

[sequinsgalore]

Men
1. Yuzuru Hanyu JPN
2. Nathan Chen USA
3. Patrick Chan CAN
4. Shoma Uno JPN
5. Boyang Jin CHN
6. Jason Brown USA

Ladies
1. Kaetlyn Osmond CAN
2. Mai Mihara JPN
3. Wakaba Higuchi JPN
4. Gabrielle Daleman CAN
5. Mirai Nagasu USA
6. Karen Chen USA

Pair
1. Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford CAN
2. Xiaoyu Yu / Hao Zhang CHN
3. Wenjing Sui / Cong Han CHN
4. Cheng Peng / Yang Jin CHN
5. Liubov Ilyushechkina / Dylan Moscovitch CAN
6. Kirsten Moore-Towers / Michael Marinaro CAN

Ice Dance
1. Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir CAN
2. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani USA
3. Madison Chock / Evan Bates USA
4. Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje CAN
5. Madison Hubbell / Zachary Donohue USA
6. Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier CAN

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Ladies was interesting to do. All along I was thinking “You know, I’m going to take a chance and put Kaetlyn on top”. Then to my pleasant surprise I discovered that she had the highest absolute PB (from last month’s Nationals). And I thought “well, maybe it’s not that big a chance then!”

Next on the absolute PB list was Karen Chen, who also achieved her highest score last month at Nationals.

No harm to Karen, but this was the only time she had scored over 200. And it was the same case for the girl that had the 3rd highest absolute PB on the list, Alaine Chartrand (except her’s was from last year’s Nationals). So, I went with my gut and moved them both down.

Instead, into second came Rika Hongo. I know. I’m totally biased when it comes to Rika. I have a massive soft spot for her.

The problem now was that there were 3 points scoring positions to fill, and 6 girls that I wanted to put into those 3 positions! As well as the two girls that I had pushed down, there was Gaby Daleman (who was next on the list after Rika); Mariah Bell (revelation of the season); Wakababy (favourite Japanese Junior of recent years); and Mirai (I just like her!)

Because her absolute PB was so big and so recent, I decided to have Chen completing the podium.

As I said, Chartrand’s absolute PB was from last season’s Nationals. This season, Gaby Daleman was nearly 20 points ahead of her at Nationals. So, I moved Gaby up ahead of her into 4th.

For me, Mariah Bell has been the revelation of the season. So, I put her into my final points scoring position. I then had Chartrand, because I felt guilty about pushing her down any further.

For the other two, I kept them in absolute PB order. And, because Mai Mihara had such big gaps either side of her absolute PB, I kept her in 9th as well.

But, for 10th place, I had a real dilemma. Zijun and Elizabet were next on the absolute PB list, and there was not much separating them. And I like both of them. But, because Zijun has made so much progress this season since she started working with Papa Mishin, I went with her.

No analysis for Pairs or Dance because I stupidly decided to write to somebody before getting back to my predictions. And it took me so long that I didn’t get doing any more predictions then. And I ended up doing them during the adverts in tonight’s snooker.

Consequently, I’ll be doing the Men’s predictions tomorrow.

Caroliza_fan


FOUR CONTINENTS

Ladies

1. Kaetlyn OSMOND, CAN
2. Rika HONGO, JPN
3. Karen CHEN, USA
4. Gabrielle DALEMAN, CAN
5. Mariah BELL, USA

Just for fun
6. Alaine CHARTRAND, CAN
7. Wakaba HIGUCHI, JPN
8. Mirai NAGASU, USA
9. Mai MIHARA, JPN
10. Zijun LI, CHN


Pairs

1. Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD, CAN
2. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN, CHN
3. Xiaoyu YU / Hao ZHANG, CHN
4. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM, USA
5. Cheng PENG / Yang JIN, CHN

Just for fun
6. Liubov ILYUSHECHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH, CAN
7. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER, USA
8. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO, CAN
9. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC, USA
10. Sumire SUTO / Francis BOUDREAU-AUDET, JPN


Ice Dance

1. Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR, CAN
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI, USA
3. Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE, CAN
4. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES, USA
5. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE, USA

Just for fun
6. Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER, CAN
7. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED, JPN
8. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU, CHN
9. Emi HIRAI / Marien DE LA ASUNCION, JPN
10. Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN, KOR

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

THIS IS YOUR TWO HOUR AND FORTY-FIVE MINUTE WARNING.

You have just 2 hours 45 minutes left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 10:00 KST (02:00 CET / 01:00 GMT)

But, as usual in my Games, this is just a target time so that you are not rushing about at the last minute. Predictions for each category will still be accepted up until the start of that category’s Short Programme.

Please Note: if you want to change your predictions after the first SP has started, you have to post the amendments IN A NEW POST. Editing your original post will invalidate your predictions.

Time for bed now

CaroLiza_fan

 

[LadyB]

Men:
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2, Nathan Chen
3. Shoma Uno
4. Patrick Chan
5. Keiji Tanaka
6. Boyang Jin

Ladies:
1. Wakaba Higuchi
2. Kaetlyn Osmond
3. Karen Chen
4. Mirai Nagasu
5. Gabrielle Daleman
6. Mai Mihara

Pairs:
1. Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford
2. Xiaoyu Yu / Hao Zhang
3. Wenjing Sui / Cong Han
4. Haven Denney / Brandon Frazier
5. Cheng Peng / Yang Jin
6. Alexa Scimeca-Knierim / Chris Knierim

Dance:
1. Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir
2. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani
3. Madison Chock / Evan Bates
4. Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje
5. Madison Hubbell / Zach Donohue
6. Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier

 

[sunnystars]

Y'all have 12 minutes left to edit/rehash/scream/cry/throw things at your predictions. If you have not submitted your predictions yet, do so now.

 

[Eclair]

Y'all have 12 minutes left to edit/rehash/scream/cry/throw things at your predictions. If you have not submitted your predictions yet, do so now.

oops, I edited it 2 minutes late! :hslap: Oh well

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

oops, I edited it 2 minutes late! :hslap: Oh well

Your most recent edit was 4 hours and 2 minutes after the start of competition, actually.

If the latest edit had been before Morrison / Rokachev had started their SD, I would have accepted it. But, I am afraid that the editing was done far too late for your predictions to count.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[Eclair]

Your most recent edit was 4 hours and 2 minutes after the start of competition, actually.

If the latest edit had been before Morrison / Rokachev had started their SD, I would have accepted it. But, I am afraid that the editing was done far too late for your predictions to count.

CaroLiza_fan

oh. yeah, 4 hours are a little late, lol. :dumb: I noticed that right after my edit that pairs sp had just started but forgot that before them goes the dance sd. Oh well, wasn't going to win anything with that prediction anyways

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

oh. yeah, 4 hours are a little late, lol. :dumb: I noticed that right after my edit that pairs sp had just started but forgot that before them goes the dance sd. Oh well, wasn't going to win anything with that prediction anyways

Don't worry. It's an easy mistake to make. Especially when one of the segments is on when you are sleeping.

But with double points and bonus points available for Worlds, everything could turn around very rapidly.

So, you're not out of the running yet!

CaroLiza_fan

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

My goodness! Such a competitive field in Men. Genuinely, there are about 5 or 6 guys that could win it if Hanyu has a bad day.

Obviously, I am putting Yuzu on top. But for the remaining podium positions, I was really torn. In the end, I went for Patrick. I know his absolute PB is old (from 2012 Nationals), but I just have a feeling that he will be best of the rest.

I was dithering between Nathan Chen, Jin Boyang and Shoma Uno for the bronze medal. Nathan actually comfortably had the 2nd highest absolute PB, from Nationals last month. But that was 30 points higher than anything else he has ever scored. His next best score, his ISU PB from the GP Final, is actually lower than the absolute PB’s for the other two (which are also their ISU PB’s).

But, I think Nathan has come on so far this season that he deserves to get the benefit of the doubt. So, I put him in third. As for the other two, I went with Shoma. His absolute PB may be a few points lower than Boyang’s, but it is from this season whereas Boyang’s is from last season. And Shoma has been consistently scoring higher than him this season.

Picking my alternate was really hard. It was between Jason and Han. And I like both of them. And in an ideal world, I would have liked to put both into my Top 5.

In previous years, I would have gone with Han. But so far this season, he has been a shadow of his former self. Jason, on the other hand, is back to near his best.

For the rest, I kept them in absolute PB order. I did toy with switching the remaining Canadians around. But, Kevin did better than Nam at Nationals. So, I kept him ahead.

Caroliza_fan


FOUR CONTINENTS

Men

1. Yuzuru HANYU, JPN
2. Patrick CHAN, CAN
3. Nathan CHEN, USA
4. Shoma UNO, JPN
5. Boyang JIN, CHN

Just for fun
6. Jason BROWN, USA
7. Han YAN, CHN
8. Kevin REYNOLDS, CAN
9. Nam NGUYEN, CAN
10. Grant HOCHSTEIN, USA

 

[Sackie]

Wow I got 100 in Dance! I knew with H/D making the GOF they would be placing ahead of W/P and P/G for the rest of this year. That now bumps W/P down into 8th place in rankings - when you factor in the 3 medalist from Euros.

 

[eta]

So I scored 5 points for ladies. :shocked:
(For predicting Osmond to be 2nd.)


Edit: Not double points for 4CC oops.

 

[NoNameFace]

So I scored 10 points for ladies. 10. :shocked:

I have 15, but feel no better...if I'd stick with my original ones, I'd have precious 5...:hopelessness: :scowl:

 

[xibsuarz]

I have 15, but feel no better...if I'd stick with my original ones, I'd have precious 5...:hopelessness: :scowl:

I don't even want to look back on mine and do the math At least it there is something quite exciting out of unexpected results

 

[eta]

I have 15, but feel no better...if I'd stick with my original ones, I'd have precious 5...:hopelessness: :scowl:

15... I don't think that's possible? It's double points for this competition, I think you have 30?

 

[Moxiejan]

15... I don't think that's possible? It's double points for this competition, I think you have 30?

I think it's double points for Worlds and normal scoring for this one.
Don't feel bad about 15 points; I got 5.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

I think it's double points for Worlds and normal scoring for this one.
Don't feel bad about 15 points; I got 5.

You are correct. It is just Worlds that has double points.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[eta]

I think it's double points for Worlds and normal scoring for this one.
Don't feel bad about 15 points; I got 5.

Ahhhh I got 5 as well then.