Free Dance Cup of China

[Mrs. P]

I wonder if it's time for the Shibs to split and find new partners. I would not normally encourage a team with such history to split but I think their lack of chemistry due to their brother/sister relationship. They are young and have time to adjust to new partners. While I'm not certain who they would partner up with and admit that it may slow their upward trajectory a year or so, in the long run, it might be for the best.

Any thoughts?

Just because they don't have romantic chemistry doesn't mean they don't have ANY synergy or chemistry at all. The Latin dance, I'd admit, definitely exploits the ills of being brother and sister, but they definitely have a sync that I think works well in their other programs. I see them more like Ginger and Fred Rogers, which is why they, for now, are doing those kind of programs.

In addition, both have the same level of technical foundation. I doubt either would find partners who would come close to matching up in that regard. They are better off being patient and build artistically at their own pace rather than give up and start completely over with someone else.

Not pointing at anyone in particular, but I find it silly that a silver medal at a GP event (with their best FD score at a GP event to boot) would yield such comments of doom. Could they have done better? Yes, definitely. But does that mean that they need to quit ice dance, focus on school and start new careers? Gosh, the way some people are posting on this board you would think that was the case!

 

[dorispulaski]

Or Adele and Fred Astaire

 

[dwiggin3]

Mrs. P - I don't disagree with you. They have done well so far and earning a silver after a lackluster performance does not mean their loosing their edge. I just wonder if they might end up better off with different partners in the long run. It's a risk yes. They could be patient and mature and see where it goes but historically, bro/sis teams have not done all that well - whether it's because they lacked the skill to advance or because the judges simply did not reward them as they should have. Then again, it make be years before any potential new partners advanced to meet their current technical skill.

Having said that, can anyone think of potential partners for Maia and Alex?

 

[Mirunna]

Last season should be an indication that the GP series are no indication of how things will be at the world championships. Last year I remember the Shibs taking bronze in Skate Canada and Vanessa/Paul taking gold and at worlds, the Shibs took the bronze medal in their debut while Vanessa/Paul finished in 10th place.(and they didn't make any huge visible error). The Shibs have a lot of time to work on their programs(and the talent to do it). Give them time

 

[Mrs. P]

Last season should be an indication that the GP series are no indication of how things will be at the world championships. Last year I remember the Shibs taking bronze in Skate Canada and Vanessa/Paul taking gold and at worlds, the Shibs took the bronze medal in their debut while Vanessa/Paul finished in 10th place.(and they didn't make any huge visible error). The Shibs have a lot of time to work on their programs(and the talent to do it). Give them time

The Shibs didn't compete in Skate Canada. They did finish behind Vanessa and Paul in Skate America. They finished behind W/P at NHK and Meryl and Charlie at both events.

With that aside, I do agree with you.

As for siblings teams not doing well, I wouldn't say that is true. The Kerrs, while not on the Worlds platform still managed to finish in the top five during the 2010 Worlds and they were two-time Euro bronze medalists. And of course the Duchesnays (who were actually Canadian, but skate for France) were 1991 World Champions and 1992 Silver Olympic medalists. I'd like to think that the Shibs have a lot of people to look up to in the sibling front in addition to their teammates.

 

[Violet Bliss]

The Dushesnays, being siblings, took Ice Dance into a different direction - drama and story telling instead of romance. With the pendulum swung back to real (romantic) dances mandated by the ISU, The Shibs are handicapped with fewer options than the Duschenays. The Kerrs are great dancers but they never got on the Worlds podium, showing how difficult it is for a sibling dance Team under the current decrees.

 

[Spun Silver]

I hate to hear chatter about breaking up this magnificent young team. The Shibs don't have to resemble anyone or fit in anyone's mold. They're good enough to be emblematic of a skating era on their own, right up there with V/M and D/W (in a couple of years).

 

[silver.blades]

The Dushesnays, being siblings, took Ice Dance into a different direction - drama and story telling instead of romance. With the pendulum swung back to real (romantic) dances mandated by the ISU, The Shibs are handicapped with fewer options than the Duschenays. The Kerrs are great dancers but they never got on the Worlds podium, showing how difficult it is for a sibling dance Team under the current decrees.

The Kerr's not making it onto the worlds podium was due more to deficiencies in their technique than them being a brother sister team. They had great programs and great ideas, but their skating skills were never near those of the top teams. The Shibs are much stronger technically than the Kerr's ever were although they're not as strong performance wise yet.
I'd like to see what a different choreographer could do with the Shibs before they consider trying to find new partners.

 

[wallylutz]

Last season should be an indication that the GP series are no indication of how things will be at the world championships. Last year I remember the Shibs taking bronze in Skate Canada and Vanessa/Paul taking gold and at worlds, the Shibs took the bronze medal in their debut while Vanessa/Paul finished in 10th place.(and they didn't make any huge visible error). The Shibs have a lot of time to work on their programs(and the talent to do it). Give them time

It is true that GP events don't always predict how the Worlds & Olympics will turn out. But the truth is, they often do, especially in Ice Dance. You have to study the underlying reasons behind the GP results from last year to notice it was an abnormal year. For one thing, the Shibs had very little expectation being their 1st year in the senior ranks - they weren't established yet and no one knew where to slot them, including the judges. Then, the Olympic/World Champions were out due to injury. DomShab retired. Khokolova was starting over with Fedor, therefore, not in GP circuit. Kerrs and Faiella/Scali were pretty much down and out due to injuries and desire to retire. The 1st year after the Olympics is almost always the most unstable one with a lot of retirements. In addition to all of the above, several veteran teams who remained had some bizarre on ice incidents in the 2nd half of the season, notably Fabian Bourzat's ha ha I don't know what happened but I must pull Nathalie down with me fall at Worlds. One thing lead to the other, with political pecking order challenged, restored, replaced, the cards got shuffled so many times. Had V/M took a year off, Crone/Poirier may have been pushed for the Bronze medal position at Worlds instead. There were a ton of exceptions last year, making it an odd year or an outlier. Unlike Singles, GP results in Ice Dance, unless some top teams chose not to take part, tend to be fairly predictive of the 2nd half of the season. Look no further than Belbin/Agosto's 2009-10 season.

What the CoC result exposed are some fundamental weakness in Shibs as a team that previously, judges haven't zoomed on being their 1st year as Seniors. Tara Lipinski received the same treatment after winning the World title in 1997. That's why I believe CoC's results risk to be quite predictive of the Shibs' season this year and possibly the next as well. Past doesn't always predict the future but it can be interpreted both ways.

 

[blackswanphoto]

It is true that GP events don't always predict how the Worlds & Olympics will turn out. But the truth is, they often do, especially in Ice Dance. You have to study the underlying reasons behind the GP results from last year to notice it was an abnormal year. For one thing, the Shibs had very little expectation being their 1st year in the senior ranks - they weren't established yet and no one knew where to slot them, including the judges. Then, the Olympic/World Champions were out due to injury. DomShab retired. Khokolova was starting over with Fedor, therefore, not in GP circuit. Kerrs and Faiella/Scali were pretty much down and out due to injuries and desire to retire. The 1st year after the Olympics is almost always the most unstable one with a lot of retirements. In addition to all of the above, several veteran teams who remained had some bizarre on ice incidents in the 2nd half of the season, notably Fabian Bourzat's ha ha I don't know what happened but I must pull Nathalie down with me fall at Worlds. One thing lead to the other, with political pecking order challenged, restored, replaced, the cards got shuffled so many times. Had V/M took a year off, Crone/Poirier may have been pushed for the Bronze medal position at Worlds instead. There were a ton of exceptions last year, making it an odd year or an outlier. Unlike Singles, GP results in Ice Dance, unless some top teams chose not to take part, tend to be fairly predictive of the 2nd half of the season. Look no further than Belbin/Agosto's 2009-10 season.

What the CoC result exposed are some fundamental weakness in Shibs as a team that previously, judges haven't zoomed on being their 1st year as Seniors. Tara Lipinski received the same treatment after winning the World title in 1997. That's why I believe CoC's results risk to be quite predictive of the Shibs' season this year and possibly the next as well. Past doesn't always predict the future but it can be interpreted both ways.

Totally agree with everything you said. Last year they had better programs too, much better. This year, I don't know what the hell their coaches were thinking but I could have choreographed something better than that. No reason to sugar-coat it, those programs they have this year are absolute garbage. Why would they give that to a team ranked 3 in the world when it's absolutely clear more thought went into the programs of D/W and V/M? Maybe the Shibs need new coaches/choreographers.

 

[Tonichelle]

The Kerr's not making it onto the worlds podium was due more to deficiencies in their technique than them being a brother sister team. They had great programs and great ideas, but their skating skills were never near those of the top teams. The Shibs are much stronger technically than the Kerr's ever were although they're not as strong performance wise yet.
I'd like to see what a different choreographer could do with the Shibs before they consider trying to find new partners.

 

[chuckm]

Not a good idea for the Shibutanis to split. They have a longstanding, stable partnership, and there is no problem with Maia growing too big for Alex, as happened with the Hubbells. Non-sibling teams haven't exactly been stable in the past couple of years. Why do away with a partnership that is working for one that has the potential to go bust at the worst possible time?

 

[wallylutz]

Not a good idea for the Shibutanis to split. They have a longstanding, stable partnership, and there is no problem with Maia growing too big for Alex, as happened with the Hubbells. Non-sibling teams haven't exactly been stable in the past couple of years. Why do away with a partnership that is working for one that has the potential to go bust at the worst possible time?

I agree. The idea of them splitting seems nonsensical at this point. If there is a concern that their coaches are splitting themselves too thin, a coaching change may not be out of question. Certainly, their programs this year does raise the question whether Zueva/Shpilband are too focus on D/W and V/M. In the circle, there is a persistent rumor (but denied by Shpilband) that Marina is closer to V/M and Igor, to D/W. It's possible that the Shibs are simply not given as much as attention as a result. In any event, patience is a good think for the Shibs at this time.

Another point that hasn't been raised yet is that if the Shibs does end up dropping significantly at Worlds this year, like dropping to 7th or 8th at the World Championship behind teams like C/L and I/K, you have to wonder if they should consider switching country of representation to Japan instead. The fact is D/W are still a young team despite all their success already. The Duchesnays went to France because they didn't want to be the #2 Canadian team and slotted there. So long as D/W remain the top American team, the Shibs will not get the lift they need to really further their career. That's just the reality. Depending on what happens at the 2014 Olympics, D/W may continue after Sochi so if they are to wait, it risks being a very long one. The USFS simply doesn't have the political capital and unable to push two Ice Dance teams to the top at the same time. On the other hand, if the Shibs continue to improve, they will put pressure on D/W but that can be dangerous from a political standpoint. When Russia used to have the 1-2 team in Ice Dance, it often led to drama like one team will skip the Nationals and other ugly stuff. V/M and D/W are spared of such showdown because they represent two different countries and two separate skating federations.


Shibs can however get Japanese citizenship in time for Sochi due to ancestry and Japan has an interest to acquire a good Ice Dance team because of the team event in 2014 that can get them a win for the Team event Gold medal (by all accounts, would be a big deal for Japan whose measure of success in Olympics is the # of Gold medal, not # of total medals), which the Reeds are just not good enough. If they acquire the Shibs for Ice Dance, all they need is to grant Tran citizenship by a special resolution passed in the Diet, and voila, suddenly, Japan will have competitive skaters and teams in all 4 disciplines. To this end, Japan will have only one dominant Ice Dance team and can push with all the political backing of JSF behind it, ensuring that the Shibs won't be relegated to the status of a #2 team.

 

[pangtongfan]

I doubt the judges will allow another NA sweep in dance anytime soon. They probably viewed that as too much, and it was completely unexpected as it took the huge fall of the French. The Shibutanis are also artistically arguably weaker than many of the top teams, even if technically they are already up with the best, but this gives the judges an excuse to drop them if they want to; strangely something they didnt use at Worlds last year where their surprisingly high PCS pushed them over teams like Weaver & Poje and Bobrova & Soloviev (not saying they didnt deserve them, just surprised they got them). The Shibutanis indeed might be wise to look into a country change if they want to make another podium before D/W or/and V/M retire.

 

[CARA]

Wallylutz:

re: the Shibs' changing their nationality - that's an interesting idea. I'm not sure if the Shibs want to be Japanese citizens, and I'm not sure how realistic it is. Interesting idea nonetheless.

 

[wallylutz]

Wallylutz:

re: the Shibs' changing their nationality - that's an interesting idea. I'm not sure if the Shibs want to be Japanese citizens, and I'm not sure how realistic it is. Interesting idea nonetheless.

Japan doesn't allow dual citizenship for people older than 20. But if you are under 20 and have at least one parent who is Japanese, you can apply for Japanese citizenship. This is how the Reeds obtained theirs, through their mother. Even Mirai Nagasu is a dual citizen. The United States has no restriction on multiple citizenship, so one way or the other, uncle Sam will not require them to give up their U.S. citizenship. Shibs' parents are both Japanese, so there is no question if they can or not but whether they want to.

Aside from their willingness, the other obstacle is in fact USFS who can delay such change of representation if they so desire. But I imagine with Olympic honors under the line, the JSF could enter into a negotiation with USFS if that proves to be the roadblock.

 

[CARA]

Japan doesn't allow dual citizenship for people older than 20. But if you are under 20 and have at least one parent who is Japanese, you can apply for Japanese citizenship. This is how the Reeds obtained theirs, through their mother. Even Mirai Nagasu is a dual citizen. The United States has no restriction on multiple citizenship, so one way or the other, uncle Sam will not require them to give up their U.S. citizenship. Shibs' parents are both Japanese, so there is no question if they can or not but whether they want to.

Aside from their willingness, the other obstacle is in fact USFS who can delay such change of representation if they so desire. But I imagine with Olympic honors under the line, the JSF could enter into a negotiation with USFS if that proves to be the roadblock.

Frankly, I am not surprised if Japan had already approached the Shibs with the change in the country representation. For instance, I watched the Shibs' 2009 JWC youtube video in which Japanese commentators expressed real regret for the Shibs not representing Japan. Who knows, the Shibs were not interested in at that time.

However, things have changed for the last couple of years. Their unexpected quick rise to the upper echelon of ice dancing may lead them to re-evaluate their career trajectory.

 

[dorispulaski]

However, you will note that in the same camp, that D&W overtook B&A.

It's a fairly sure thing that V&M will retire after Sochi, which is not that far away.
I would not be surprised if D&W retire at the same time, even if they don't win gold at Sochi. They should both have graduated from UMich by then.

So it would not be a long wait for the Shibs to be top dogs in Igor & Marina's camp.
Maia is only 17. Alex is 20. They won't be that old after Sochi.

Education seems to be a priority with the Shibutanis.
UMich is a good school, and seems to be adaptable to having kids that go missing for several weeks during the term. (It works out ok scholastically for Meryl, Charlie, Alex & Evan, for example. It should work for Maia as well.

It might be a smart choice to skate for Japan, but that would mean not competing for a year or two, which would not help their cause vis a vis Sochi. So why not just wait for Sochi right where they are? And I doubt USFS would release them in any case.

The one thing that I might suggest to them is should they feel their choreo is not top notch, go to other choreographers, if that is OK with Z&S.

 

[Mrs. P]

I suppose it's typical for threads to wander off into new territory -- but I'm amused at all the Shibs should break up/skate for Japan chatter. Sure while USFS don't have the political capital to push two teams, I don't seem them releasing their No. 2 senior team either. This is not a similar situation to Piper Gilles who never got higher than 3rd in Nationals at the junior level with her former partner.

And I'm not completely sold that their FS is a piece of crap either. The judges didn't think it was total crap either -- they did give it 90+ What they lost in levels they made up for slightly better +GOE scores on the remaining non-downgraded elements and higher PCS scores (mostly 6's and 7s at NHK last year vs mostly 7 and 8s here at COC). I think the biggest challenge for them is that the other teams do seem hungry and they will have to stay on top of their toes. But I really don't see an indication that they're crumbling.

NHK is almost here and they're dealing with stiffer competition there so let's see how they do...

 

[Spun Silver]

I must be very old-fashioned but the idea of abandoning one's citizenship in order to skate is repugnant to me. It just seems wrong. I'm not sure why. It's a "goes without saying" sort of thing. I know everybody here disagrees so no need to jump on me. (But feel free if you feel impelled....)

Anyway, the USFSA would have to be a bunch of idiots to let the Shibs get away. And of course they're not idiots.