So far we've had twenty-three ladies compete in the the first two Grand Prix events, and we've lost a GPF contender or two, although things have been *slightly* less unpredictable than they've been in the men. Gauging the top four from the first two events:
Skate America:
1. Evgenia Medvedeva: Need only medal in Russia, where her biggest competition should be her two fellow home skaters, Adelinda Sotnikova & Elena Radionova. When aside from them the biggest threat is Rika Hongo or *possibly* Yuka Nagai, her chances are looking pretty good; it would take a huge letdown for her to not top four.
2. Gracie Gold: Needs to win France to seal it, which she just must do. True, she'd need help from both Elizaveta Tuktamisheva and Julia Lipnitskaia, but the latter especially has shown herself perfectly capable of providing it, meaning she's got a serious shot of at least silver and then her chances being very good. And even if they don't, or she has some issues herself, her biggest competition for bronze and a chance, Kanako Murakami, has also been struggling a lot, although if she does badly enough she might also slip behind Gabrielle Daleman. But really, in all probably, she'll get on that podium and possibly higher if she skates decently. Whether she will or not, of course, is another question all together, but then again, she's gotten GP medals with less than perfect skates before.
3. Satoko Miyahara: Needs to win Japan to seal it, which might not happen unless Mao Asada lets it. For silver and a chance, she'd also have to beat Ashley Wagner and Anna Pogorilaya, who might or might not help her, although she can certainly do it.
4. Elizabet Tursynbaeva: Both events completed, with 7th in Canada is out.
Skate Canada:
1. Ashley Wagner: Need only medal in Japan, where she might not beat Asada either without help, but if she skates like she did this weekend, her chances seem pretty good of at least holding off Pogorilaya for a medal, maybe even beating Miyahara. Although if she doesn't, she might have to hold on to fourth against Zijun Li, or even Alena Leonova or Mirai Nagasu if they have one of their better weeks. She skates well, she's in.
2. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva: To make it certain, needs to win in France, where she'll be the favorite. If she has any trouble, though, she'll have to worry about Gracie Gold if the latter skates well, or Julia Lipnitskaia if she manages to do better at her second event. But given the inconsistencies of both of them, it seems unlikely she'll even get less than silver and a very good chance, and the rest of the field seems even less likely to knock her off the podium and out of contention.
3. Yuka Nagai: To seal it needs to win Russia, where there are three Russian women it'll be pretty hard for her to beat, so even silver and a chance would require a lot of luck, especially when they're not even all she has to worry about.
4. Kanako Murakami: To have a chance would have to win France, where between her own skate, Tuktamisheva, Gold, and even Lipnitskaia the odds are higher against her even getting silver.
Out of contention, but may be factors at other events:
Adelina Sotnikova: Competing only at the Rostelecom Cup, but could have a huge impact there
Julia Lipnitskaia: Sixth at Skate America, but capable of being a factor in France if she skates better.
Mirai Nagasu: Competing only at the NHK Trophy; the field there is such that she just might make a difference if things go crazy enough
Contenders yet to skate:
Mao Asada
Elena Radionova
Anna Pogorilaya
Skate America:
1. Evgenia Medvedeva: Need only medal in Russia, where her biggest competition should be her two fellow home skaters, Adelinda Sotnikova & Elena Radionova. When aside from them the biggest threat is Rika Hongo or *possibly* Yuka Nagai, her chances are looking pretty good; it would take a huge letdown for her to not top four.
2. Gracie Gold: Needs to win France to seal it, which she just must do. True, she'd need help from both Elizaveta Tuktamisheva and Julia Lipnitskaia, but the latter especially has shown herself perfectly capable of providing it, meaning she's got a serious shot of at least silver and then her chances being very good. And even if they don't, or she has some issues herself, her biggest competition for bronze and a chance, Kanako Murakami, has also been struggling a lot, although if she does badly enough she might also slip behind Gabrielle Daleman. But really, in all probably, she'll get on that podium and possibly higher if she skates decently. Whether she will or not, of course, is another question all together, but then again, she's gotten GP medals with less than perfect skates before.
3. Satoko Miyahara: Needs to win Japan to seal it, which might not happen unless Mao Asada lets it. For silver and a chance, she'd also have to beat Ashley Wagner and Anna Pogorilaya, who might or might not help her, although she can certainly do it.
4. Elizabet Tursynbaeva: Both events completed, with 7th in Canada is out.
Skate Canada:
1. Ashley Wagner: Need only medal in Japan, where she might not beat Asada either without help, but if she skates like she did this weekend, her chances seem pretty good of at least holding off Pogorilaya for a medal, maybe even beating Miyahara. Although if she doesn't, she might have to hold on to fourth against Zijun Li, or even Alena Leonova or Mirai Nagasu if they have one of their better weeks. She skates well, she's in.
2. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva: To make it certain, needs to win in France, where she'll be the favorite. If she has any trouble, though, she'll have to worry about Gracie Gold if the latter skates well, or Julia Lipnitskaia if she manages to do better at her second event. But given the inconsistencies of both of them, it seems unlikely she'll even get less than silver and a very good chance, and the rest of the field seems even less likely to knock her off the podium and out of contention.
3. Yuka Nagai: To seal it needs to win Russia, where there are three Russian women it'll be pretty hard for her to beat, so even silver and a chance would require a lot of luck, especially when they're not even all she has to worry about.
4. Kanako Murakami: To have a chance would have to win France, where between her own skate, Tuktamisheva, Gold, and even Lipnitskaia the odds are higher against her even getting silver.
Out of contention, but may be factors at other events:
Adelina Sotnikova: Competing only at the Rostelecom Cup, but could have a huge impact there
Julia Lipnitskaia: Sixth at Skate America, but capable of being a factor in France if she skates better.
Mirai Nagasu: Competing only at the NHK Trophy; the field there is such that she just might make a difference if things go crazy enough
Contenders yet to skate:
Mao Asada
Elena Radionova
Anna Pogorilaya