Predictions for Russian JGP team 2017-18

[PiggytailProdigy]

I think that if Anna will make it to the team then that would also mean that she has been amazing at the test skate event and that should also mean that Russian Fed isn't going to put Nastia Gubanova and Shcherbakova in the same JGP event. So, the way I see it is that Gubanova, Shcherbakova and Trusova shouldn't skate at the same event but other than that it doesn't matter much who is the 2nd skater in each event. Personally I would most likely start with two ladies from Eteri's group since they have shown they are ready already early season. Also, I would give Gubanova a later start.

So, I would likely go with something like this.

1st Event: Shcherbakova and Panenkova
2nd Event: Trusova and Gulyakova
3rd Event: Tarakanova and Panenkova
4th Event: Shcherbakova and Fedichkina
5th Event: Gubanova and Gulyakova
6th Event: Trusova and Tarakanova
7th Event: Gubanova and Fedichkina

I feel like when they all hit, the results are going to be gubanova>tarakanova>trusova>shcherbakova>panenkova>fedichkina>gulyakova so i guess if rika kihira and eunsoo do well, then there will be 4 spots for the russian girls so the stronger ones should pair with the weaker ones in order to ensure that the stronger ones get into the finals

 

[voolfee]

Ladies
1.Anastasiia Gubanova
2.Alexandra Trusova
3.Daria Panenkova
4.Anna Shcherbakova
5.Alisa Fedichkina
6.Anastasia Tarakanova
7.Anastasia Gulyakova

Men
1.Makar Ignatov
2.Alexey Erokhov
3.Igor Efimchuk
4.Roman Savosin
5.Artem Frolov
6.Evgeni Semenenko
7.Ilia Skirda

Pairs
1.Boikova/Kozlovski
2.Atakhanova/Spiridonov
3.Kvartalova/Sviatchenko
4.Ustimkina/Volodin
5.Pavlyuchenko/Hodikin
6.Zhuk/Britkov
7.Borisova/Sopot

Dance
1.Shpilevaya/Smirnov
2.Skoptsova/Aleshin
3.Polishchuk/Vakhnov
4.Shevchenko/Eremenko
5.Ushakova/Nekrasov
6.Konkina/Yakushev
7.Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov

 

[silverfoxes]

It will be terribly unfair if Georgi Kunitsa has to miss another JGP season after what happened to him this season. And he is indeed a very special skater.

 

[hanca]

Ladies
1.Anastasiia Gubanova
2.Alexandra Trusova
3.Daria Panenkova
4.Anna Shcherbakova
5.Alisa Fedichkina
6.Anastasia Tarakanova
7.Anastasia Gulyakova

Men
1.Makar Ignatov
2.Alexey Erokhov
3.Igor Efimchuk
4.Roman Savosin
5.Artem Frolov
6.Evgeni Semenenko
7.Ilia Skirda

Pairs
1.Boikova/Kozlovski
2.Atakhanova/Spiridonov
3.Kvartalova/Sviatchenko
4.Ustimkina/Volodin
5.Pavlyuchenko/Hodikin
6.Zhuk/Britkov
7.Borisova/Sopot

Dance
1.Shpilevaya/Smirnov
2.Skoptsova/Aleshin
3.Polishchuk/Vakhnov
4.Shevchenko/Eremenko
5.Ushakova/Nekrasov
6.Konkina/Yakushev
7.Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov

There is only 12 spots for pairs, not 14. So unless you are saying that your number six and seven pair get only one spot each, you nominated too many pairs.

Also, you don't seem to have any faith in Mishina/Galliyamov?

 

[hanca]

It will be terribly unfair if Georgi Kunitsa has to miss another JGP season after what happened to him this season. And he is indeed a very special skater.

Same unfair if Tarusina miss another season JGP.

 

[voolfee]

There is only 12 spots for pairs, not 14.

I know. I think 2 pairs will have 1 JGP event.

Also, you don't seem to have any faith in Mishina/Galliyamov?

I didn't see this pair. Did they compete somewhere?

 

[hanca]

I know. I think 2 pairs will have 1 JGP event.


I didn't see this pair. Did they compete somewhere?

No, they did not compete anywhere because Mirzoev dumped Mishina only towards the end of the season. But Mishina is junior worlds medallist, and Galliyamov was not bad at all with his previous partner (comparable to Kvartalova /Sviatchenko and Pavliuschenko/Khodykin) and now he upgraded to Mishina, so on paper they look they will be pretty decent.

 

[kalee]

i'm hoping for a lineup like this:
stage1 gubanova panenkova
stage2 tarakanova gulyakova
stage3 gubanova shcherbakova
stage4 trusova vasilieva
stage5 shcherbakova gulyakova
stage6 trusova tarakanova
stage7 panenkova vasilieva

these girls are all podium capable and the real threats are only rika kihira and eunsoo lim or maybe young you as well. korea most certainly won't put young and eunsoo in the same stage so the worst scenario will be 4 girls competing for 3 spots on the podium and if everything goes well, russia might actually get 14 medals for JGP

Yuna Shiraiwa may remain junior for another season since she has not achieved an SB that guarantees her a senior GP spot. Also, Mako Yamashita is another podium possibility. Still looking good for the Russian girls but there could be one JGP that gets more crowded with 2 Russians + 1 Japanese + Eun So or You (or not to discount Ye Lim also).

Taking a stab at a possible lineup also for maxing podiums / JGPF spots (includes podium contenders from other countries):
Stage 1: [RUS] Trusova, Tarakanova, [JPN] Mako Yamashita
Stage 2: [RUS] Gubanova, Kurakova, [KOR] Kim Ye Lim
Stage 3: [RUS] Panenkova, Gulyakova, [JPN] Rika Kihira, [KOR] Young You
Stage 4: [RUS] Schcherbakova, Samodurova / Nugumanova / Vasilieva / Tarusina, [JPN] Yuna Shiraiwa, [KOR] Lim Eun Soo
Stage 5: [RUS] Panenkova, [better of Tarakanova / Kurakova], [JPN] Mako Yamashita, [KOR] Young You
Stage 6: [RUS] Trusova, [better of Gulyakova / 2nd Stage 4 competitor], [JPN] Rika Kihira, [KOR] Kim Ye Lim
Stage 7: [RUS] Gubanova, Schcherbakova, [JPN] Yuna Shiraiwa, [KOR] Lim Eun Soo

 

[skatenewbie]

is it confirmed that alina will turn senior?

 

[The Finn]

I feel like when they all hit, the results are going to be gubanova>tarakanova>trusova>shcherbakova>panenkova>fedichkina>gulyakova so i guess if rika kihira and eunsoo do well, then there will be 4 spots for the russian girls so the stronger ones should pair with the weaker ones in order to ensure that the stronger ones get into the finals

Well, we will see how it goes but personally I do think that if everything goes well during off-season then the TOP 3 ladies would be Gubanova, Trusova and Shcherbakova but not necessarily in this order. Tarakanova has done great since Russian Junior Nationals but still I would pick Trusova and Shcherbakova over Tarakanova.

 

[The Finn]

is it confirmed that alina will turn senior?

I haven't seen any official statement but I would think it is pretty much given she will move to seniors.

 

[The Finn]

Men
2.Alexey Erokhov

I have high hopes that he will have his breakthrough season next season.

Pairs
4.Ustimkina/Volodin
7.Borisova/Sopot

I am not convinced that neither one of those teams would deserve a JGP spot next season but since Ustimkina/Volodin were 3rd at the Junior Nationals they will likely get at least one spot. Personally I would much rather see Mishina/Gallyamov and Kudryavtseva/Simenenko getting spot(s) than either one of the teams mentioned above. In recent years we have seen multiple times that a totally new pair will get JGP spots even though they didn't skate at the Junior Nationals. Hopefully that will happen next season also. We will see how it goes but at the moment it looks like the quantity and the quality of Russian junior pairs will be higher than ever next season.

Dance
3.Polishchuk/Vakhnov
5.Ushakova/Nekrasov
6.Konkina/Yakushev
7.Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov

I find it a bit troublesome that Ushakova/Nekrasov has been beaten lately by teams they most definitely should be beating. At the Nationals Elder Age they lost to Ivanenko/Karpov and after SD they were even behind Shanaeva/Narizhny. At the Winter Spartakiad Ushakova/Nekrasov were behind Lazareva/Prokofiev after SD. They did beat them in FD but still their results haven't been encouraging lately and because they were only 7th at the Junior Nationals their JGP spot might be in jeopardy if they don't be at their best at the test skate event. I think that as of now they are only the 7th best team to get their JGP events.

I have high hopes that Polishchuk/Vakhnov will have their breakthrough season. It will also be very interesting to see how Konkina/Yakushev and Khudaberdieva/Nazarov will do next season. They both were new teams this season and they both did great. Especially Konkina/Yakushev did better than expected at the Junior Nationals even beating a team like Shevchenko/Eremenko.

 

[hanca]

I can't see why Ustimkina/Volodin would not deserve a GP event. They have been the third highest qualifier into JGPF, after Mishina/Mirzoev and Duskova/Bidar. They have also placed third at the Russian nationals, so I really can't see how could you justify that the teams who were beaten by them would deserve it more. Unfortunately Ustimkina/Volodin are not as consistent as they should be, so they wasted their chance in JGPF, but at this moment they definitely belong among top six Russian junior pairs who should get JGP events. Saying that, the newly created pairs seem to be improving quicker and within six months they may be better than U/V, but with the current level of skating (if they were giving the events now) I think U/V should have two.

In regards to Borisova/Sopot, if I was basing it on this season, I would agree that they don't deserve any spots. But then I can't forget how they skated a year ago and think that their spots in six months time will depend on whether they get into the same level as they were in season 2015-16. At that time they at Mishina/Mirzoev's level, so even though Borisova has problems with jumps, they managed to compensate with very high value of other elements (lifts, throws etc). We will see what they manage to do until August.

I think that Zhuk/Britkov deserve the JGP event less than U/V, and potentially (depending on B/S's level of preparedness) less than B/S. Because Brtikov struggles with his jumps as much as Borisova, possibly even more. With Borisova/Sopot, we could at least see their potential during one season when they were at the top of their game. Z/B are still lagging behind. Nearly there but not quite.

 

[seranana]

1996: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva
1997:
1998: Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaya
1999: Medvedeva, Radionova
2000: Sotskova, Konstantinova, Sakhanovich
2001: Tsurskaya
2002: Zagitova, Gubanova, Panenkova, Fedichkina, Gulyakova, Nugumanova
2003: Vasilieva,Kostornaya,Tarusina
2004: Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tarakanova,Kostyuk,Guseva,Sinitsyna
2005: Kanysheva,Ryabova,Moroz
2006: Valieva,Khromykh,Muravyeva,Liventseva,Shabotova,Romansova,Tyshetskaya
2007: Akatieva,Samodelkina,Berestovskaya,Zinina
2008: Plakhotnaya,Zhilina,Siniyavina,Zubkova
2009: Dzelka

 

[hanca]

Russian junior pair Borisova-Sopot split up. I guess that's one team less to fight for the JGP spots next season.
https://tulup.ru/partnerview2876.html

 

[The Finn]

So, both Anna and Sasha will most likely do one quad in FS next season. I wonder if they will break Alina's WRs?

 

[atsumiri]

So, both Anna and Sasha will most likely do one quad in FS next season. I wonder if they will break Alina's WRs?

looks like they will definitely get spots for JGP. Both за them?

 

[The Finn]

looks like they will definitely get spots for JGP. Both за them?

Yep, it sure looks like it.

It definitely looks like Gubanova, Trusova, Shcherbakova and Panenkova will surely get JGP spot(s). It would seem that Fedichkina, Gulyakova and Tarakanova would be the next ones the get their JGP spot(s) but Kurakova, Nugumanova and Vasilieva have their chances too.

 

[MsLiinaLii]

I am sure that none of the girls are guaranteed 2 spots, it will all depend on their first event.
Those, who are more ready at Test Skates, will most likely be listed for 2 events, being main/substitudes in various events.
If 1st of 2nd at their first JGP, then 100% they get second event.
If 3rd at their first JGP, then 70% they get second event.
Out of the podium, well, most likely 5% chance they get second event.

There are too many girls this season, who are all very strong.

Shcherbakova, Trusova, Gubanova, Panenkova, Vasilieva, Tarakanova would be my picks. All quite different but strong.
Then we have Fedichkina, Nugumanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Kurakova, Lozko who are all very talanted.

Lozko, Fedichkina, Nugumanova, Samodurova 's main problem are underrotations. When Fed has so meny girls without this problem, they might give this factor a serious consideration.
Shcherbakova and Trusova, just stay healthy. I am glad Daniil said they will try quad but if not needed/too risky will consider whether to add it or not. Eteri is a smart lady. She didn't let Medvedeva do Rippon jumps until they have become consistent even though she has been practicing them for quite a while.
Panenkova and Gulyakova - my main concern with them is that they already look a lot older than their age - Gulyakova (height, body shape), Panenkova (body shape). We have to wait until end of July. Panenkova's PCS are also quite weak.
Vasilieva is different from other girls, she is a little fire-cracker. Inconsistency, though, is her weakness. Tarakanova, also, was a mess at the beginning of the season and very good/conistent in the end.
And I adore Kurakova, she improved this season a lot. I will be sad if she doesn't get any JGP this year also.
Gubanova, ohhh, that Lutz might ruin her chances for 2nd JGP. If she doesn't change the technique ASAP it might cost her a lot...

On top of that, there is Mitrofanova and Tarusina also.

 

[Amer]

So, both Anna and Sasha will most likely do one quad in FS next season. I wonder if they will break Alina's WRs?

I thought Trusova and Gulyakova were practicing the 3A?
Who's practicing a quad?