Thoughts on Evgenia Medvedeva's 2018-19 Season
- Thread starter ancientpeas
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- Dec 18, 2014
I think a lot of skaters would love to have career like Kostner. And Kostner is her favourite skater, so... After all, its not everything just in winning golds
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- Apr 16, 2018
If I'm not mistaken, she said she want to complicate her program as much as possible. With the new rules, programs with huge GOEs may have higher scores than programs with more difficult jumps with fewer bullets
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- Sep 23, 2017
I think a lot of skaters would love to have career like Kostner. And Kostner is her favourite skater, so... After all, its not everything just in winning golds
Exactly! That's not to say she doesn't want to win, because of course she does. But at the same time, she wants a long career and she knows she can't win every competition she enters, especially with the juniors turning senior soon.
It's yet to be seen whether the young Eteri skaters (or young ones anywhere) will be successful under the scoring adjustments for this quadrennial.
If the bullet points are applied as written (and that's yet to be seen) those higher BV jumps won't be strategically worth it if they can't get the essential +GOE bullet points of good height and length and good take off and landing -- not to mention how avoiding prerotation will be essential...
Eteri is nothing if not strategic, but it's unclear how quickly she can change her training method to respond. It may be the Juniors coming up at the end of the quadrennial that will really show Sambo 70's response to the changes.
So, Zhenya is better placed with the TCC team to adapt quickly. It may not be very visible this season, but I expect the technical changes to appear subtle and then snowball in 2019-2020. Choreography changes to respond may be more obvious at first.
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- Aug 16, 2017
Courney Hicks fixed her Flutz at age 16. Med is over 18. It will be very challenging. We shall see.
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- Dec 9, 2017
I'm going to be the downer and say it might not be fixed at all.
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- Apr 30, 2018
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And that will only matter if they start calling her on it. I guess we'll see what happens.
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- May 5, 2018
She can also land the Quad Salchow
I'm not saying she will, but I wouldn't understimate her determination, either...
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- Dec 9, 2017
In general, as an athletic endeavour, I meant.
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- Nov 12, 2011
i'm not so sure everyone understands there is a good chance she may have a rough season this year. if they change anything technical with her this summer its usually a year or so before consistency with changes show in competition, maybe even longer. she is a very strong willed girl and i know she will overcome anything thrown her way, and she will come out on top no matter how this next season goes. i just hope its not going to be incentive for people to write her off...inconsistency has a tendency to come with those kind of changes, even if its temporary.
There is an issue with a long career. 3 spots =(I think a lot of skaters would love to have career like Kostner. And Kostner is her favourite skater, so... After all, its not everything just in winning golds
It is also yet to be seen whether Medvedeva will be sucessful under the scoring adjustments. Because her jumps are average and she will not start jumping like Osmond no matter what. Under the old system, she got her GOEs based on difficult entries and exits and difficult air positions, and the new GOE is literally about jump quality. For example, I actually see someone like Osmond getting higher GOEs than she currently gets under the new system, but I don't see Zhenya benefiting much from it.
There is also this thing that in new SOV thingy, GOE factoring is proportional to TES.
If anything, she may lose GOE because right now she is one of the skaters that get highest GOE scores currently.
Actually, lets look at GOEs under current rules:
the scores are like this: GOE at Olympics
Zhenya at Olympics (FS):
1. 3F+3T: 1.40 / 2.10
2. 3Lz: 1.60 / 2.10
5. 3F: 1.90 / 2.10
6. 3Lo: 1.70 / 2.10
7. 2A+2T+2T: 0.79 / 1.5
8. 3S+3T: 1.60 / 2.10
9. 2A: 0.71 / 1.5
Max possible GOE: 13.5
Scored: 9.7 (72%)
For comparison, Alina:
4. 3Lz: 0.50 / 2.10
5. 2A+3T: 1.40 / 2.10
6. 3F+2T+2Lo: 1.20 / 2.10
8. 3Lz+3Lo: 1.70 / 2.10
9. 3S: 1.40 / 2.10
10. 3F: 1.70 / 2.10
11. 2A: 0.57 / 1.50
Max possible GOE: 14.1
Scored: 8.47 (60%)
And Osmond:
1. 3F+3T: 1.90 / 2.10
2. 2A+3T: 1.90 / 2.10
3. 3Lz: 0.1 / 2.10 (from worlds, not from Olympics)
6. 3Lo: 1.50 / 2.10
7. 3F: 1.80 / 2.10
8. 3S+2T+2Lo: 1.10 / 2.10
9. 2A: 0.71 / 1.50
Max possible GOE: 14.1
Scored: 9.01 (64%)
Hmm, as a random thought, I wonder if Zhenya can ditch that 2A+2T+2T combo somehow. Since the GOE is factored after the highest value jump, which is 2A...
Max possible GOE for their current layouts under new SOV:
https://www.isu.org/docman-document...munications/17142-isu-communication-2168/file
Zhenya:
1. 3F+3T: 2.65
2. 3Lz: 2.95
5. 3F: 2.65
6. 3Lo: 2.45
7. 2A+2T+2T: 1.65
8. 3S+3T: 2.15
9. 2A: 1.65
Old max GOE: 13.5
New max GOE: 16.15 ( +20%)
For comparison, Alina:
4. 3Lz: 2.95
5. 2A+3T: 2.10
6. 3F+2T+2Lo: 2.65
8. 3Lz+3Lo: 2.95
9. 3S: 2.15
10. 3F: 2.65
11. 2A: 1.65
Old max GOE: 14.1
New max GOE: 17.1 ( +21%)
And Osmond:
1. 3F+3T: 2.65
2. 2A+3T: 2.10
3. 3Lz: 2.95
6. 3Lo: 2.45
7. 3F: 2.65
8. 3S+2T+2Lo: 2.15
9. 2A: 1.65
Old max GOE: 14.1
New max GOE: 16.6 ( +18%)
Hmmm so dunno really, but this still looks like Zhenya needs consider upgrading her jump layout if the GOE loss is not that huge.
I dunno, I am just bringing numbers so we have stuff to discuss
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
Agree that I think Evgenia may have a rougher season than we're anticipating. Part of her consistency (and the consistency of all Eteri girls) comes from the number of run-throughs they do. Evgenia is older now, and Brian has emphasized that she is injured, and they will be focused on making sure she is physically healthy. She's not going to be doing the number of run-throughs she did under Eteri because they will be bad for her physical health. That's going to be a major adjustment in terms of how prepared she is used to being.
We won't see any increase in her TES for this season, basically for the same reasons.
I think we will see gorgeous, next-level programs from her and improved skating skills that will hopefully give her a greater PCS gap over Alina.
ETA: I agree with moriel on Evgenia's GOE - I expect that the new GOE changes will NOT be good for Evgenia. Her jumps and spins are not of extremely high quality in comparison to her competitors. Sure, they're worthy of +3 if you're a generous judge (and judges have been very generous) but I think it'd be hard to justify a +4 or +5. As much as I prefer Evgenia, Alina has better elements and deserves higher GOE than Evgenia on them.
I think it's possible we will see 4S and/or 3F-3Lo combos from her over the course of the next quad, but not this upcoming season. Again, she needs to heal and adjust to her new training routine. And that's fine. She and Brian are focused on 2022.
Agreed...[emoji3] changing technique is risky physically, psychologically and in terms of performance ...it takes time to establish new body memory.
However, your point is kind of an "other things being unchanged" point.
And with the scoring changes coming in this year, I believe that the Russian Federation will have many skaters across all the disciplines experiencing inconsistent and unexpected results.
So, Zhenya would not stand out in that environment. It's strategically smart for her to take the risk of destabilizing her performance this season if any.
And generally, it's important to keep in mind that her astonishing consistency has been the outlier in the Russian national team in the past two seasons.
(Alina's consistency at the senior level is yet to be demonstrated and her peak growth velocity appears to be now.)
If the rest of the Russian team was not consistent under the old rules, why should we expect that to change this season when the whole judging system is getting a refresh?
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2017
I also think that Evgenia will not be as consistent as we're used to her being next season. BUT I also believe that her consistency isn't solely due to the endless runthroughs - Alina hasn't been nearly as consistent as her (esp in her new program, SP) and they followed the same training. I think at least 50% of her incredible consistency is due to her incredible mental strength.
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- Mar 23, 2014
This too. If anyone can successfully adjust to the drastic change in training regimen, it's Evgenia.
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- Aug 25, 2017
Anyone else kind of seeing Castles in the Snow for Evgenia? (Sofia Samodelkina did it for her free last year and it actually seemed pretty good to skate to)
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- Apr 6, 2016
Totally agree with this remark. Obviously constants rans through combines with youthfulness is a key for consistency imo. But Zhynya's secret is also mental strength. Last season showed that even with injury, lack of trainings (e.g. rans through) and crazy pressure, she still managed to pull our clean skates of both SP & FP at Euros and Olympics...
I would be pleased as long as she fights for podium next season counting she needs to adjust to so many things like new coach, country, system, programs, layout (?)...Think Alina is number one and all pressure of Rus Fed should be on her as well as bringing 3 quotas from World's, Zhenya shall focus on her recovery and hopefully catch some medals, than RusFed would be satisfied imo.
It is not far enough from her usual programs for my taste.
I still want to see her do a tango or something upbeat or a huge drama music.
- Joined
- Apr 6, 2016
Hmmm so dunno really, but this still looks like Zhenya needs consider upgrading her jump layout if the GOE loss is not that huge.
I dunno, I am just bringing numbers so we have stuff to discuss
It seems like Zhenya knows it better than anyone, she said it herself ("my layout is cheap") just after the Olympic's free skate. However, I doubt she will change everything from the first competitions. They (her and TCC team) might gradually change combos and layout. I doubt she would have any time to include new combos at the first part of the season. The goal is probably to recover all she already had. At her 2d season she was in fantastic shape and healthy, jumps were light and not small or laboured, in contrast this season injury affects all her jumps...So she can get decent GOE if she is in shape and at the same time gradually try to include new combos and hopefully improve her edge...That would be enough for this season and form next hopefully she can upgrade her TES with loop combo at least and get rid of 2A2T2T as well as increase overall quality of jumps and SS hopefully..
