What to expect from Caroline?

[antmanb]

But her spinning, oh my, is awesome. I honestly have never seen anyone spinning like that and hitting positions like that. I have always been a fan of Lambiel's spins, but compared to hers, his positions look pretty sloppy!

I'm affraid i have to disagree - Lambiel can hold his spins perfectly centred for ednless number of revolutions and a blindingly fast speed. Caroline does not come close to his spinning abilit but that is becuase Lambiel is in a calss of his own. Caroline is an excellent spinner but not better than Stephane - her basic camel position needs some work as does her back sit spin position.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Is that why it took so many years to break the top scores Sasha set?

No - the rules changed didn't they which meant that skaters weren't getting the same high scores.

Ant

 

[amber68]

I'm affraid i have to disagree - Lambiel can hold his spins perfectly centred for ednless number of revolutions and a blindingly fast speed. Caroline does not come close to his spinning abilit but that is becuase Lambiel is in a calss of his own. Caroline is an excellent spinner but not better than Stephane - her basic camel position needs some work as does her back sit spin position.

Ant

I am afraid I have to disagree too. Yes, Lambiel's spins are blindingly fast but are not perfectly centered and very often travel. Also some of his positions are sloppy: his basic camel position needs a lot of work (watch his free leg).

 

[antmanb]

I am afraid I have to disagree too. Yes, Lambiel's spins are blindingly fast but are not perfectly centered and very often travel. Also some of his positions are sloppy: his basic camel position needs a lot of work (watch his free leg).

The only times i have seen Lambiel's spins travel are when he's had to do the contortionist level 4 spins. When his tactic was to do lower levels at a better execution the Judges didn't him the +GOEs he deserved so he does what everyone else does - the level four spins not as well as he can do the others. If you watch him in exhibitions where he doesn't spin for points - he is nailed ot the spot. I don't think any of his positions are sloppy. Nothing wrong with his sit or upright or any variation thereon - the only thing he sometimes doesn't do is get his free foot at hip level in his camel spins but he's always stretched out on the camel. In any event, last season he nearly always did get his free foot up to hip level.

Ant

 

[feraina]

Caroline is an excellent spinner but not better than Stephane - her basic camel position needs some work as does her back sit spin position.

Looking at the last combination spin in Caroline's JW LP:
http://www.mkforum.net/forum/showthread.php?t=16552&goto=nextnewest
I don't know what you see wrong in her camel or sit. She's very well-stretched on the camel, nice inside edge, and then a fine sit spin with lots of speed.

You want her to be faster on the camel or lower on the sit, or something? Yes, everyone can strive for more perfection, but no competitive lady can do these spins as well as Caroline at the moment. She got NINE +3 GOE"s on that last level 4 combination spin. Did Sasha ever even achieve that? For that matter, did Stephane?

 

[feraina]

OK I correct myself, since 2004-2005 when the current established COP was put in place, scores have escalated each season. 2003-2004 the COP was slightly different.

Ok, fine, let's go with ONLY last year's scores then. Caroline (169) is #9 on season's best scores, and only behind Miki (199) and Kimmie (180) in terms of SA competitors. Take into account that juniors get to do one fewer spin than seniors in the SP (on average 5 points for Caroline), and 30 seconds shorter in LP which means a spin and a footwork sequence (5+2.5=7.5 for Caro on average), plus junior PCS are typically depressed to match the TES (Mao and Yu-na's PCS jumped about 5 points in SP and 10 points in LP when they went from junior to senior, so say a total of 15). That means Caro should garner about 197 with her current skating abilities, far better than Kimmie's PB (190 from 2006 WC), and within whiskers of Miki's best score.

Plus, Caro is extremely consistent in her scores. In all her JGP events last year, plus the WC, her scores were within 5 points of each other (though steadily rising). Whereas people ranked above her on season's best had much more varying scores. I'd be interested to see a ranking of the AVERAGE season's scores as opposed to BEST. That'd give a better indication for how people would do in a future competition.

Even if you don't believe any of my calculations, with her shortened SP & LP as well as deflated PCS, Caro looks in contention for a bronze at SA and silver at National's based on last season's best scores!

 

[einna]

Ok, fine, let's go with ONLY last year's scores then. Caroline (169) is #9 on season's best scores, and only behind Miki (199) and Kimmie (180) in terms of SA competitors. Take into account that juniors get to do one fewer spin than seniors in the SP (on average 5 points for Caroline), and 30 seconds shorter in LP which means a spin and a footwork sequence (5+2.5=7.5 for Caro on average), plus junior PCS are typically depressed to match the TES (Mao and Yu-na's PCS jumped about 5 points in SP and 10 points in LP when they went from junior to senior, so say a total of 15). That means Caro should garner about 197 with her current skating abilities, far better than Kimmie's PB (190 from 2006 WC), and within whiskers of Miki's best score.

Plus, Caro is extremely consistent in her scores. In all her JGP events last year, plus the WC, her scores were within 5 points of each other (though steadily rising). Whereas people ranked above her on season's best had much more varying scores. I'd be interested to see a ranking of the AVERAGE season's scores as opposed to BEST. That'd give a better indication for how people would do in a future competition.

Even if you don't believe any of my calculations, with her shortened SP & LP as well as deflated PCS, Caro looks in contention for a bronze at SA and silver at National's based on last season's best scores!

Well, IMO, we can't assume that Caroline's PCS will really escalate. I think the judges will hold up the last 2 World Champions and they will still get higher PCS than Caroline. And if it is true that PCS = reputation, Caroline doesn't have a repuration as a senior yet. My point is, we really shouldn't expect too much of her. She is a wonderful skater and all I can do is to hope that she will do well. Hope, not expect. I would rather that she surprise and wow me than to disappoint me because I expected a lot from her.

 

[feraina]

I would rather that she surprise and wow me than to disappoint me because I expected a lot from her.

Me, too! But I'm confident she will not disappoint me. I enjoy her skating so much, regardless of how judges rate her in the future. No other skater makes me want to watch a program again and again like her.

 

[passion]

Me, too! But I'm confident she will not disappoint me. I enjoy her skating so much, regardless of how judges rate her in the future. No other skater makes me want to watch a program again and again like her.

I second that! She is not even senior yet and look how much attention she has already.

 

[feraina]

And if it is true that PCS = reputation, Caroline doesn't have a repuration as a senior yet.

But you don't actually expect her PCS scores to fall going into seniors, do you? Unless she deteriorates over the summer, I don't see that happening.

Senior PCS scores really are inflated over juniors', in order to make sure that TES and PCS roughly make up 50% of the total score. With the extra spin in the SP and the 30 seconds in LP, TES are higher in seniors than in juniors, so PCS rises to keep apace. This is also why men's PCS are generally higher than women's, because they garner higher TES due to the quads and 3A's and the level 4 footwork seq's.

 

[blue dog]

I agree with the last two posters. I remember back in the day when being a junior meant you were still bad.

Remember the skates of Julia Pingatcheva, Yelena Ivanova, Daria Timoshenko, and Christina Oblasova to win their junior world titles? Or, for that matter, Michelle Kwan's own performance at jr worlds?

Caro, Mao, and Yu Na were far more enjoyable to watch and far more polished in their junior wins.

PS- I don't think Caroline will disappoint. The girl seems like a hard worker. She received a wake-up call at the jr nats, which came right on time since she had been winning without much competition, but there, she received the shock of her young life when she lost to Mira.

 

[einna]

But you don't actually expect her PCS scores to fall going into seniors, do you? Unless she deteriorates over the summer, I don't see that happening.

Senior PCS scores really are inflated over juniors', in order to make sure that TES and PCS roughly make up 50% of the total score. With the extra spin in the SP and the 30 seconds in LP, TES are higher in seniors than in juniors, so PCS rises to keep apace. This is also why men's PCS are generally higher than women's, because they garner higher TES due to the quads and 3A's and the level 4 footwork seq's.

No, I don't expect her PCS to fall, why will I expect that? But I won't expect it to be higher or even as high as what the judges would give to the top 4 finishers at Worlds. She will face 2 of the 4 in her first senior competition.

I would like to repeat that I don't want to put too much expectations on her. She is wonderful. I'm waiting for her to wow me.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I am afraid I have to disagree too. Yes, Lambiel's spins are blindingly fast but are not perfectly centered and very often travel. Also some of his positions are sloppy: his basic camel position needs a lot of work (watch his free leg).

comparing the boys with the girls on camel spins is almost like cheating to make a point. You are correct Lambiel could improve his camel position. Should Miki, Yu Na and Mao also get better positions or are the club foot effect ok?

However, there is no doubt that Antmanb is correct about Stephane's centering of spins as being his norm.

Joe

 

[sk8addict]

I second that! She is not even senior yet and look how much attention she has already.

I totally agree!!!

 

[sk8addict]

umm, 3? or 4 at the most? Right, that's SOOOOOOOOOOOO many years

Three or Four years is a lifetime to a skater. Do you think Kimmie can learn artistry in th e next 3 or 4 years?

 

[Mathman]

Kimmie Meissner won the Figure Skating Championship of the World in 2006. Caroline Zhang? Mirai Nagasu? Ashley Wagner? Mao Asada? Yu-na Kim? We'll see.

 

[athlet]

Ok, fine, let's go with ONLY last year's scores then. Caroline (169) is #9 on season's best scores, and only behind Miki (199) and Kimmie (180) in terms of SA competitors. Take into account that juniors get to do one fewer spin than seniors in the SP (on average 5 points for Caroline), and 30 seconds shorter in LP which means a spin and a footwork sequence (5+2.5=7.5 for Caro on average), plus junior PCS are typically depressed to match the TES (Mao and Yu-na's PCS jumped about 5 points in SP and 10 points in LP when they went from junior to senior, so say a total of 15). That means Caro should garner about 197 with her current skating abilities, far better than Kimmie's PB (190 from 2006 WC), and within whiskers of Miki's best score.

In SP there is no big difference between junior and senior programs except that junior SP requires a specific jump (flip last season). In FS senior program is 30 second longer and have one more spin. Caroline can add a spin with base value 3.0 in her FS (she can't add CCoSp with base value 3.5 since she already had one). This may increase her TES about 4 points I guess. Unfortunately, It's wrong that there are two more spins and one more footwork sequence. I also guess that her PCS score will increase 5-7 points for total. Hence Caroline's Jr. World score 169 matches a score near 180 in senior competitions that is sufficient for her to be on the podium in GP series.

I have no idea how Caroline will improve during this summer, but she is already a contender in GP series imo.

 

[R.D.]

Three or Four years is a lifetime to a skater. Do you think Kimmie can learn artistry in th e next 3 or 4 years?

Maybe in one competitive era 4 years is a long time. But in terms of HISTORY it's nothing. Someone said that Cohen's Cop record stood for "so many years" and I pointed out that it's really only been about 3-4 years- and that's nothing in a historical context.

But onto your question. The use of the word "artistry" has always bothered me because it implies "artist", which none of these skaters are. To me, it's a very "pro" word...a word you'd use to describe skating at a show rather than at a competition. Besides, I don't think it can be learned...it's something you either have or you don't. I think in this case we should be using the word "presentation"...and I think Meissner has, and will continue to, make significant strides forward to improve her presentation and ability to relate to her audience. I don't think she'll ever become a Kwan or Cohen, and I think many of the up-and-comers either have or will surpass her in this department.

Her strength is technical, and I think she needs to put her focus there. I mean, she can still win competitions as a jumping machine- didn't stop jumping bean Asada from upsetting veteran Cohen and Slutskaya.

 

[SeaniBu]

The use of the word "artistry" has always bothered me because it implies "artist", which none of these skaters are.

I understand and respect you Idea of what it is to be an artist but to clarify as you know I always TRY to do....

5. a person whose work exhibits exceptional skill.

And if one does also thinks performing is something that is not apart of the criteria in FS, this will also mean nothing.

1. a person who produces works in any of the arts that are primarily subject to aesthetic criteria

Now I have an issue with this definition for is says "primarily" And as I know of a few "artists" now and throughout out history, that they did not "primarily" practice their art. It may have been "paramount" to them in their embodiment of achievement, but there "primary" goal at any given time may have been waiting tables. They may have never even "hit the big time" but an artist, or performer none the less.
Was Bob Ross a Artist or a teacher?

I think the real issue is being able to fairly "judge and score" art. Just as long as they the skaters, continue to have the desire to "perform - and to music none the less" - all is good.:yes:

 

[Zuranthium]

Take into account that juniors get to do one fewer spin than seniors in the SP (on average 5 points for Caroline), and 30 seconds shorter in LP which means a spin and a footwork sequence (5+2.5=7.5 for Caro on average), plus junior PCS are typically depressed to match the TES (Mao and Yu-na's PCS jumped about 5 points in SP and 10 points in LP when they went from junior to senior, so say a total of 15). That means Caro should garner about 197 with her current skating abilities, far better than Kimmie's PB (190 from 2006 WC), and within whiskers of Miki's best score.

1. Juniors still do both footwork sequences. And, wtf, an average spin is worth 5 points???? The only way to get 5 points for a spin is if it's a level 4 combination spin and the judges give you +3 for GOE across the board.

2. Junior PCS are depressed mostly because Juniors aren't as good! If someone gave an amazing, emotion-filled performance on the Junior level they would get high PCS (should, anyway?). But Juniors don't do that...they aren't experienced or mature enough yet.

Although I think she will quickly surpass most of the other American ladies, there is NO WAY that Caroline gets anything close to 197 next season. I'm gonna predict 180 for whatever her best competition of the season is.

~Z