Who will have a breakthrough season?

[sarama]

Roman Sadovsky is still staying in juniors? It feels like he's been there forever. 4 seasons wasn't enough?

I think so. What else is he supposed to do , though? There is room for him in Juniors, and the Senior field is a bit crowded (but I'm sure it will be more open after the Olympics) In the meanwhile the Junior circuit is not a bad place to spend his time, especially this season he could do very well.

I also think the Greens can have a breakout season now that there's more room on the national podium.

It almost seems unreal that the Parsons and McNamara Carpenter won't be at Junior Nationals, it's like the end of an era

I am curious about the men's field in particular. With Samarin, Aliev, Cha, Zhou, & Aymoz all moving up to the senior GP, it feels like a clearing of the decks, at least for the JGP. The top seven men from Junior Worlds will all be on the senior GP.

Often there is a general move to senior before the Olympics, but I expect some of these boys to be back at JW.

 

[The Finn]

I wonder how many new Junior World Records we will see during JGP season? We might not see many but surely at least Shcherbakova and Trusova are capable to score a new World Records. Atakhanova/Spiridonov are capable to score records also, and maybe Kvartalova/Sviatchenko too. It would seem highly unlikely that we would see any new records on men's event.

 

[tars]

I expect some fireworks from Eunsoo, Kihira, Young You, Shcherbakova, Trusova and others, 208.60 is a HUGE score though...

 

[The Finn]

I wonder how many ladies will score above 200 points during JGP season? At least Anna, Sasha and Nastia Gubanova can do it when they are in top shape.

 

[angelicadiablo]

I love how everyone is dismissing the one skater who was the first lady to do an 8-triple program, beaten Zagitova and almost beaten Gubanova by .08 points last year, has done a 3A+3T+2T in local competitions and probably will be the first lady to a 3A+3T, and is also practising 4S and 4T. Too bad she's not Russian.

 

[tars]

I love how everyone is dismissing the one skater who was the first lady to do an 8-triple program, beaten Zagitova and almost beaten Gubanova by .08 points last year, has done a 3A+3T+2T in local competitions and probably will be the first lady to a 3A+3T, and is also practising 4S and 4T. Too bad she's not Russian.

I wrote about her just 3 posts above...

 

[icedinn]

Atahkanova/Spiridonov please! They had bad luck last season and they deserve to do well.
Polishchuk/ Vakhnov please! They came this close to making it to jgpf and Jr. Words. They're my most favorite Russian Jr team and I just love their style.

 

[Hannah555]

I love how everyone is dismissing the one skater who was the first lady to do an 8-triple program, beaten Zagitova and almost beaten Gubanova by .08 points last year, has done a 3A+3T+2T in local competitions and probably will be the first lady to a 3A+3T, and is also practising 4S and 4T. Too bad she's not Russian.

People may have different opinions. This thread is only about predictions, so people can have different favorites in Juniors next year. And it has nothing to do with being russian. Japanese skaters receive the same love and respect and usually have even more fans due to FS popularity in Japan.
I love Rika but she's still unstable when it comes to competitions. I hope she can show us some consistency next year.

 

[silverfoxes]

I love how everyone is dismissing the one skater who was the first lady to do an 8-triple program, beaten Zagitova and almost beaten Gubanova by .08 points last year, has done a 3A+3T+2T in local competitions and probably will be the first lady to a 3A+3T, and is also practising 4S and 4T. Too bad she's not Russian.

You could have just nominated her yourself without making it into some passive aggressive thing. Nobody "dismissed" her.

 

[Ice Dance]

I think there are a lot of fans of Russian skating on the board that follow the juniors. And a number of the initial posts on the thread were entirely about Russian athletes when we all know that athletes of many nationalities are likely to break through. But at least the Russian fans follow the juniors! I really liked Gubanova last season, and the Russian dance teams have a lot of medals behind them heading into this year, though I think there is room for a shakeup among the rankings as several of these teams are very close. Rika ended her season struggling with an injury, which makes her a bit easier to overlook than one would expect after her stellar performance on the JGP. Ye-lim Kim missed out on Junior Worlds due to injury, but should not be overlooked either. She defeated Young You handily at Nationals and Dabin Choi as well. The Greens were too young last season & most of their performances were paywalled or unavailable so it is less likely for fans from outside the U.S. to have expectations for them. (I can see them needing a year's experience; but having seen their speed live, I can also see them surprising people).

The more you see of an athlete, the more it impacts one's expectations. You have a better idea of who underperformed or overperformed in competition. Who is capable of more. And who has a little less flash upon the first viewing, but typically has the mental toughness to get the job done. It's one of the nice things about a discussion board. It allows us a glimpse into who to keep our eyes open for and how others see the playing field. Then the season really starts, and half of our predictions go up in smoke.

Outside the more experienced junior athletes for the U.S., I think there are quite a few spots up for grabs based on summer performances. I would expect Maxim Naumov to debut. He doesn't have the big jumps yet, but he is a good competitor, has a nice look on the ice, and I quite enjoy watching him skate. I loved Avonley Nguyen two years ago in intermediate dance and am excited to see her in a new partnership, though her partner is Ukrainian so not sure if they are eligible to compete internationally yet. (There are about 7-8 U.S. dance teams debuting in juniors this season. It will be interesting to see if any of them can make the JGP).

 

[The Finn]

Roman Sadovsky is still staying in juniors? It feels like he's been there forever. 4 seasons wasn't enough?

Actually he has skated 5 seasons in juniors already. Can't be very common that a skater will move to seniors only after 6 seasons in juniors.

 

[Ice Dance]

Actually he has skated 5 seasons in juniors already. Can't be very common that a skater will move to seniors only after 6 seasons in juniors.

The Parsons did it.

No, it's not common. It really has a lot to do with how young you were when you qualified for your first JGP, how deep the field is at home, and if you can earn the SB score to get onto the GP. Roman doesn't have it, and there are Canadian guys in line in front of him for the SC host spot.

It's about your own circumstances. Most guys who go five seasons age out and don't have the option. And most of the top junior guys (including Sadovsky) have competed in senior challengers, senior Bs, or senior club competitions so it's not like they are being kept out of senior competition.

Wasn't it Samarin who wanted to go senior last season but couldn't get anything so he did his fifth year on the JGP? It worked out quite well for him, IMO. Qualified for his first JGPF, won his first Junior World medal, finished 2nd at senior Nationals, and went to Europeans.

 

[siberia82]

I'm not sure if Nam Nguyen was telling the truth or not, but he apparently said in an Instagram livestream a couple of weeks ago that Roman Sadovsky wouldn't receive any JGP assignments because he has moved up to the senior ranks.

ETA: Sadovsky is indeed a full-fledged senior, as confirmed by this Beverley Smith article: https://bevsmithwrites.wordpress.com/2017/08/22/boys-to-men/

 

[maea14]

Korean babies will make big waves this season

 

[sarama]

Actually he has skated 5 seasons in juniors already. Can't be very common that a skater will move to seniors only after 6 seasons in juniors.

Especially in singles it's quite rare. But as I said somewhere else before, he found himself in the perfect conditions for this to happen: in all these years there was just no room for him in the Senior ranks, but plenty in the Junior category.
After this season there will be a big generational change in Canadian men, and I'm quite excited to see what happens. The veterans will be missed, but all things considered they had good and long careers, and the youngsters look ready to step up

 

[Layback11]

Lim, Kihara, and Scherbakova, plus Nguyen because the state of the US junior ladies is kinda sad right now and I feel like she could bring about a resurgence. :thumbsup:

 

[figurefan0726]

My bet is on Alina Zagitova.

Alina moved up to seniors.

 

[eppen]

This is random, but how likely is Artem Kovalev to get a JGP slot? I remember liking him last season...

Thanks for the replies to this. He was my absolute biggest fave in the boys last year - those performance skills would make most senior skaters envious... But he is not too hot on the tech side for current tastes, I guess. I saw some reports that he did not do very well in the test skates, unfortunately. I thought I saw his name as the Russian participant in Brisbane originally, but now he was dropped to the substitutes. Hoping to catch him in some of the later competitions!

Looking forward to seeing how Anastasia Gubanova will do this year... And Rika Kihira! The first for her artistry, the latter for those 3As!

E

 

[LadyB]

Right now I'm excited for Egor Rukhin and to see whether Roman Savosin can crack it in Brisbane. I keep my fingers firmly crossed for Ilya Skirda. So far, Artem Frolov is looking quite promising and yes, I'm an Artem Kovalev fan too.
Overall I think Makar Ignatov will put himself firmly on the radar.

 

[mom2cavs]

I think there are a lot of fans of Russian skating on the board that follow the juniors. And a number of the initial posts on the thread were entirely about Russian athletes when we all know that athletes of many nationalities are likely to break through. But at least the Russian fans follow the juniors! I really liked Gubanova last season, and the Russian dance teams have a lot of medals behind them heading into this year, though I think there is room for a shakeup among the rankings as several of these teams are very close. Rika ended her season struggling with an injury, which makes her a bit easier to overlook than one would expect after her stellar performance on the JGP. Ye-lim Kim missed out on Junior Worlds due to injury, but should not be overlooked either. She defeated Young You handily at Nationals and Dabin Choi as well. The Greens were too young last season & most of their performances were paywalled or unavailable so it is less likely for fans from outside the U.S. to have expectations for them. (I can see them needing a year's experience; but having seen their speed live, I can also see them surprising people).

The more you see of an athlete, the more it impacts one's expectations. You have a better idea of who underperformed or overperformed in competition. Who is capable of more. And who has a little less flash upon the first viewing, but typically has the mental toughness to get the job done. It's one of the nice things about a discussion board. It allows us a glimpse into who to keep our eyes open for and how others see the playing field. Then the season really starts, and half of our predictions go up in smoke.

Outside the more experienced junior athletes for the U.S., I think there are quite a few spots up for grabs based on summer performances. I would expect Maxim Naumov to debut. He doesn't have the big jumps yet, but he is a good competitor, has a nice look on the ice, and I quite enjoy watching him skate. I loved Avonley Nguyen two years ago in intermediate dance and am excited to see her in a new partnership, though her partner is Ukrainian so not sure if they are eligible to compete internationally yet. (There are about 7-8 U.S. dance teams debuting in juniors this season. It will be interesting to see if any of them can make the JGP).

Avonley and Vadim are going to BLR and Luca and Isabella are going to AUT