- Joined
- Mar 26, 2014
Unfair low scores????
Scoring was quite dubious in fact but Alina made mistakes and should understand that they will cost her dearly. So, she would rather do it Polina T. or Alina Zagitova St. Gervais style in the future.
What is clear now is that Russia will not switch Gubanova and Nugumanova. It means that chances of Honda's getting into final have become quite high. Konstantinova has no leeway for a single mistake and even then the judges may be reluctant to give her more than 187 which is needed to qualify with silver. Hence, she will have to win over Gubanova - quite unlikely unless Nastya collapses. Extra challenges include Yuna S, Vivian Le, and Eunsoo Lim. Out of these three Lim is the biggest threat. So, Konstantinova's win or silver with 187+ is, I think, 25% chance
Nugumanova has to win in Tallinn to stop Honda. I would give 10% chance to this scenario. Then the chance that Marin is out of final is 1 - (1-0,75)*(1-0,1) = 0,325 - about a third.