Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[4everchan]

med
osmond
daleman

repeat podium from 2017

 

[suihan]

I want my favourite Russian, favourite Japanese, and favourite Canadian lady of the season all on that podium :luv17:

 

[truthbooth]

Barring disaster Medvedeva will win. Zagitova won't get sufficient PCS and I don't know if she will handle pressure as well in seniors. Osmond doesn't have the stacked difficulty or consistency. Miyahara doesn't have the jump GOE. Honda is way too new on the scene.

She's more seasoned than Zagitova, with junior world gold and silver under her belt in 2016 and 2017. Zagitova had a more impressive debut season, though, and political clout seems to be in her favor.

I'd be surprised if Medvedeva didn't take the OGM in style at this point. She's just so rock solid and has shown no sign of cracking yet. Olympic pressure is uniquely difficult though, as has been mentioned.

 

[brens78]

And hoping Meds won't be another Michelle Kwan and being pipped twice!

 

[xeyra]

I'd be surprised if Medvedeva didn't take the OGM in style at this point. She's just so rock solid and has shown no sign of cracking yet. Olympic pressure is uniquely difficult though, as has been mentioned.

Evgenia doesn't come across to me as someone who will be hit by Olympic pressure too much. Olympics is different, yes, but she's gone through the past two years basically with the mentality of every competition being just another competition. She's rock solid not just because of her technical consistency but mainly because of her mental toughness. And I don't think the Olympics will change that.

Then again, it's possible there's been other very mentally tough skaters who faltered at the Olympics, so you never know. So far, though, from what I've seen of her, I don't think she'll let it affect her too much. It may, on the other hand, affect her a bit more if other skaters start getting closer to her points-wise.

 

[tars]

Sure info:
Medvedeva, Zagitova, Honda + outside shot Daleman

 

[sarama]

This sport is way too unpredictable to make predictions... I mean in June 2013 I would have NEVER thought Adelina could win in Sochi, maybe medal, but certainly not win.
Anyway for now I have a feeling that it would either be Med, or a rookie. I think that if Lipnitskaya had gone clean in Sochi she would have won, so I think the judges won't have any issues with crowning Zagitova, Honda or maybe Higuchi if she magically finds some consistency.

 

[bevybean]

I think those that predict Medvedeva are forecasting the likely outcome. But I'd like to throw Gracie Gold's name in as a she pulls together a career high, magnificent program. Gracie seems to have matured and there is a quiet confidence building. Even at her worse the judges loved her. She's a dark horse but my eyes are on her.

I'm totally with you, but, sadly, I think this is more for the "Cinderella Story" thread.

 

[Crabe 93]

Not sure if an oversight, but surprised by your list Crabe excluded any mention of Kaetlyn Osmond. The 3 medalists this years were miles apart from others in the field at Worlds. I don't see Kaetlyn out of the mix for the podium, in 2017-18.

Sure, I was pretty impressed by Osmond this season, but I doubt she will bring it all together into the Olympic season . I think pressure will be too much for her . However, I don't see her completely out of the podium contenders, especially if she skates clean. (And if she does, she would be delightful to watch )

 

[asp11]

I'm all for unpredictability. Honestly, though, I just can't see Medvedeva losing. Here's to a good fight by all!

 

[Tulipstar]

My hope:

1. Evgenia
2. Anna (I really want her to medal and erase the awful experience. It would also be fun if she and Evgenia did their little routine that they do whenever they both medal)
3. Mai

That said, I like almost all the ladies at the top 20 now, so I would be happy for them as well.

What I think it will be:

1. Evgenia
2. Alina
3. Satoko (or maybe one of the Canadian ladies)

 

[Osmond4gold]

Sure, I was pretty impressed by Osmond this season, but I doubt she will bring it all together into the Olympic season . I think pressure will be too much for her . However, I don't see her completely out of the podium contenders, especially if she skates clean. (And if she does, she would be delightful to watch )

The thing that Kaetlyn has that most do not, is precious Olympic competition experience. Like Ashley, Carolina, Gabby and Gracie (hopefully), def. an asset going into an Olympic year. As for pressure, Kaetlyn is already a World and an Olympic Silver medalist, so there is really nothing else to prove here.

I think the pressure will solely be on those who have yet to achieve these milestones, as others have already created their figure skating legacy, or their "this is the moment", moment, if you will. In particular I have concern for the Japanese women, whose realistic chances for an OM are in the singles event only, and are limited to 2 skaters.

Given the popularity of the sport in that country, that's a burden of responsibility that I wouldn't wish on anyone...and run ...:scard7:

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

My hope:

1. Evgenia
2. Anna (I really want her to medal and erase the awful experience. It would also be fun if she and Evgenia did their little routine that they do whenever they both medal)
3. Mai

That said, I like almost all the ladies at the top 20 now, so I would be happy for them as well.

What I think it will be:

1. Evgenia
2. Alina
3. Satoko (or maybe one of the Canadian ladies)

I pretty much see the same outcome: A Russian for gold, and silver or bronze, and a Japanese skater for silver or bronze.

 

[sarama]

The thing that Kaetlyn has that most do not is previous Olympic experiences. Def. an asset going into an Olympic year.

But last time she wasn't a medal contender and she was still recovering, so nobody expected too much from her. Maybe she had slightly more pressure for the team event and she did decently there, so that's a good place to start.
Anyway I'll keep my expectations low for Kaetlyn, because, although I think she handles her nerves quite well, she is so unpredictable sometimes... and she manages to always make me extremely nervous watching her, so maybe this way I'll survive Pyeongchang without a heart attack.

 

[Skatingcat]

Barring any massive error/injury, I think Evgenia has the OGM all sewn up.

I wish she didn't- she is a wonderful skater, but I like to see a competitive field, and Evgenia dominates so completely, it takes some of the fun out of it for me.

To mix things up, I'd love to see someone else (fairly) win. I hope it's a great competition.

I expect the Russians, Japanese and Canadian women to get the medals, but because I love Ashley's spirit, I'd like to see her take the bronze medal.

 

[koatcue]

Russian lady will win OGM:hap36:

 

[jenaj]

My predictions right now:

Gold: Evgenia
Silver: Satoko
Bronze: Alina

I reserve the right to change these after the Grand Prix/Nationals!

 

[StitchMonkey]

Evgenia doesn't come across to me as someone who will be hit by Olympic pressure too much. Olympics is different, yes, but she's gone through the past two years basically with the mentality of every competition being just another competition. She's rock solid not just because of her technical consistency but mainly because of her mental toughness. And I don't think the Olympics will change that.

The thing is, when we say "Olympic pressure" it really means (or should mean) more than just the mental aspect of wanting to win something that something that only comes around every four years. It is also about the extra physical and mental pressure on the body and mind (and some would say soul) that comes with the hoopla of the Olympics.

For instances. Evgenia has never had to face the choice of walking in an opening ceremony. I suspect a lot of debate will happen on this topic. I could see Evgenia being the flab carrier honestly, but at the same time there might be a need/want to save her up for competition. Just the "will she or won't she" is added pressure in that it is crap to be decided. And if she walks, that is more pressure on the body. And while not overly strenuous, it may also just be not what she is used to and it is a calorie burn and it can't not be a huge emotional rush... this is something Evgenia has not faced and is part of the Olympic pressure.

Then we have the added press and media. Evgenia likely will be facing at least 3 times the reporters she normally does... that is more work and as such more pressure. Evgenia is not a robot (well... at least we don't have any evidence she is) this is more work, so it is logical she may be more tired than usual. She will need to cope with this pressure.

Then we have the whole Olympic village and it going on for a while. It is a long event away from home. Again, this is a pressure that can affect skaters. Just the excitement and distraction is a pressure that skaters have to deal with in some way.

I don't see Evgenia mentally cracking from the pressure to win, but I do think that she could find she is just exhausted by the ladies free skate and that could affect her. She has not faced this level of intensity yet, and she could be tired from it. I think the Olympics will be very exhausting for her if we are being realistic. The Olympics are a lot of fun I am sure but also are a lot of work for the Athletes, and I don't just mean competing. We should not overlook this aspect of the pressure of the Olympics.

 

[SarahSynchro]

Has the thought crossed anyone's mind that if Alina somehow beats Evgenia to pull off winning the OGM, it'll be the be-all end-all to her career?

I'm not throwing shade at Alina, nor am I at Adelina, Tara, Sarah, etc. But we've seen in the past that winning the holy grail of skating competitions - the Olympics - can definitely sway a skater's desire to continue.

 

[Osmond4gold]

^^ Def. Sarah. Given what has happened to previous winners in the ladies event, we may be honouring a false god in an OGM. It is one of many competitions in a 4 year cycle. So, depending on the day...

For me, I would much prefer a Michelle Kwan or a Kurt Browning performance anytime, versus a Tara Lipinski or a Viktor Petrenko program (Vik performed the same LP for 3 years for crying out loud.....zzzzzzz). That reminds me, it will soon be time for a Casablanca replay.