TT choreographed both MK's LP and a new SP

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Doggy Girl - As to your original question. I believe there was a contention among many European fans that Susanna Poykio should have won the LP not necessarily the whole competition.

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

Doggy Girl - As to your original question. I believe there was a contention among many European fans that Susanna Poykio should have won the LP not necessarily the whole competition.

Joe

And how close she came (and I think she's a lovely skater!) - a completed double axel was the only thing standing between her and beating Irina in the FS. (or something else of equal point value) I wish her 2A would have worked in that program!

DG

 

[Mathman]

And how close she came (and I think she's a lovely skater!) - a completed double axel was the only thing standing between her and beating Irina in the FS. (or something else of equal point value) I wish her 2A would have worked in that program!

I love that answer, DG, LOL.

But...The great thing about the NJS is that we can actually see where and why one skater finished ahead of another. I think it's a stretch to put the burden on that double Axel, rather than on the "she's a lovely skater" part.

Irina singled her Salchow, doubled her loop, and missed her Lutz combo altogether.

Susanna hit 3S+2Lo, 3Lz+2T, 3Lo, 3F+2T and 3T before singling her Axel and doubling her flip.

Fortunately, we don't have to second-guess and wuz-robbed about how to evaluate whose technical mistakes were worse. It's all there in the numbers. When the smoke cleared Irina had earned 45.5 points and Susanna, single Axel and all, had 47.0.

If only the judges had agreed with you that Susanna is a lovely skater! But no, they thought Irina is a lovely skater, and gave her the advantage in PCS by an average of about 7.2 to 6.6 across the board. That's what won the LP for Irina.

 

[soogar]

People who were present at Euros reported that Suzanne was dying toward the end of her performance while Irina maintained her energy. I know that would have a huge factor on how the judges view the program in person.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I love that answer, DG, LOL.

If only the judges had agreed with you that Susanna is a lovely skater! But no, they thought Irina is a lovely skater, and gave her the advantage in PCS by an average of about 7.2 to 6.6 across the board. That's what won the LP for Irina.

It's like comparing orderly with messy, and messy wins.

However, I seem to remember that Irina said she deserved the win to make up for all the times the judges did not give her the win - or something to that effect.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

But even so, I agree with Soogar. After a terrible start Irina dusted herself off and finished like a trooper.

Now, where was I? Oh yes, the Red Violin. I think this was Lori Nichol's most ambitious undertaking. I agree with Rgirl, that if you just listen to this music it seems impossible to put any skating choreography with it. Unlike our favorite "war horses," it has no tune that we can go around whistling, nor big crescendos that cry out, "jump here!" Yet somehow Nichol was able to harness all that dark energy and create a masterpiece.

I have wondered if Nichol didn't have access to an advance copy of this music, before its general release. The movie came out in 1999 in the U.S. (possibly a little earlier in Canada), and the soundtrack was recorded in 1998, relaeased somewhat later. But Michelle used it for her exhibition at Worlds in March of 1999.

Mathman

 

[hockeyfan228]

BI agree with Rgirl, that if you just listen to this music it seems impossible to put any skating choreography with it. Unlike our favorite "war horses," it has no tune that we can go around whistling, nor big crescendos that cry out, "jump here!"

Those are my favorite pieces! I was listening to a recording of piano music by Schoenberg, Berg, and Webern -- talk about "no tune that we can go around whistling" -- to figure out what modern excerpts are in Jeffrey Buttle's Glenn Gould tribute LP, and I was seeing lots of skating (in my head).

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to figure out what the modern pieces are. In the Thornhill version, I know it starts with the Prelude from Tristan und Isolde interspersed with a modern piano piece (or two) -- the first sounded like they it might be chords from Ravel's Valses Nobles et Sentimentales, but the latter didn't -- into the 16th variation from the Goldberg Variations into the Prelude And Fugue No. 2 In C Minor, BWV 847: Praeludium from The Well-Tempered Clavier, into the modern piece I can't identify, into the gorgeous Adagio from the Bach D minor Concerto [after Alessandro Marcello) BMV 974].

 

[euterpe]

What was most interesting was looking at how each of the skaters' total PCS scores for each of 12 judges ranked. It should give you an interesting view of how the outcome of an event could change based on which judges' scores are selected for the final count.

[SIZE=-1]
01 01 01 03 01 01 03 04 02 01 02 01 Irina
02 09 02 01 02 04 01 03 01 03 01 04 Sasha
06 03 04 02 06 03 02 08 02 05 03 03 Michelle
04 06 05 05 07 07 06 01 07 07 07 02 Carolina
07 05 08 05 04 06 10 06 05 04 04 07 Shizuka
08 04 06 05 03 02 03 01 06 06 06 05 Elena
09 10 09 08 10 08 07 08 08 08 08 09 Miki
04 07 06 09 09 08 09 10 09 08 10 07 Susanna
10 07 10 09 07 10 08 07 10 10 08 10 Joannie
03 02 03 03 04 05 05 05 04 02 04 06 Fumie
[/SIZE]

Yikes! One judge ranked Carolina's PCS first, another Elena Sokolova's! Sasha was ranked as low as 9th, and Michelle as 8th. Miki and Joannie were consistently ranked among the lowest. On the positive side, Fumie's lowest rank was 6th.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Yikes! One judge ranked Carolina's PCS first, another Elena Sokolova's! Sasha was ranked as low as 9th, and Michelle as 8th. Miki and Joannie were consistently ranked among the lowest. On the positive side, Fumie's lowest rank was 6th.

And don't forget, Euterpe. These judges are experts in their field and totally unbiased. Yeah....

Joe

 

[Mathman]

This is very puzzling. I guess I don't understand what the numbers in Chuckm's table represent.

According to the table, judge number 2 ranked Sasha 9th in PSC. In fact, the average PCS for judge number 2 are

Irina 8.75
Sasha 7.90
Michelle 7.25
Carolina 7.05
Fumie 7.05
Suzanna 6.60
Miki 6.85
Elena S. 6.95

Also, it appears from the table that judge number 8 gave first place to both Carolina and Elena. But the scores from judge number 8 were

Irina 8.50
Carolina 7.10
Eleana 6.10

In fact, the actual scores from the ISU protocol sheets seem to me to be quite consistent across the judging panel.

Mathman

 

[Rgirl]

Sorry to get off-topic on the judges' scores, but just want to say this: When Tarasova was working with Sasha on "Malaguena" and the black-and-white "Swan Lake," TAT changed the choreography for every GP event Sasha skated in order to rack up more points under the NJS. As I've said before, the Trophee Lalique version was so chuggy-jam with potential for COP that had Sasha kept that version the rest of the season through Worlds in order to train it well and get the muscle memory set, and if she had skated it even moderately well (big IF, of course), IMO the Trophee Lalique B-&-W "Swan Lake" had the potential to be a 150-point or more scoring LP.

Therefore, with Tarasova at the helm of Michelle's short and long program choreography, I repeat and am even stronger in my belief that Michelle will win the OGM, not to mention a 10th US National title. Michelle may have been holding back since '02 in order to avoid burnout, but I say that though she may go a little easy during the GP series and cheesefests so she can peak at the right times, Michelle will come out guns a'blazin' for Nationals, the Olympics, and Worlds.

Power to the Kwan!

Rgirl

 

[emma]

Sorry to get off-topic on the judges' scores, but just want to say this: When Tarasova was working with Sasha on "Malaguena" and the black-and-white "Swan Lake," TAT changed the choreography for every GP event Sasha skated in order to rack up more points under the NJS. As I've said before, the Trophee Lalique version was so chuggy-jam with potential for COP that had Sasha kept that version the rest of the season through Worlds in order to train it well and get the muscle memory set, and if she had skated it even moderately well (big IF, of course), IMO the Trophee Lalique B-&-W "Swan Lake" had the potential to be a 150-point or more scoring LP.

Therefore, with Tarasova at the helm of Michelle's short and long program choreography, I repeat and am even stronger in my belief that Michelle will win the OGM, not to mention a 10th US National title. Michelle may have been holding back since '02 in order to avoid burnout, but I say that though she may go a little easy during the GP series and cheesefests so she can peak at the right times, Michelle will come out guns a'blazin' for Nationals, the Olympics, and Worlds.

Power to the Kwan!

Rgirl

Just curious: since Michelle cannot do some of the spins Sasha does (and where Sasha, thus, can wrack up points), how do you think this will play out for Kwan (where will the points come in)? Or do you think she can get spin points by changing edge/position? Also, out of curiosity, do you remember the jump content of that program?

(and by the way)...I loved the versions of TAt Swan Lake I saw and really thought we were seeing Cohen emerging as the unbeatable one....Even though she did poorly at the GP final, I still thought: she's just exhausted or sick...minor set back, she'll dominate the rest of the season...then all that changed.

 

[Mathman]

Just curious: since Michelle cannot do some of the spins Sasha does (and where Sasha, thus, can wrack up points), how do you think this will play out for Kwan (where will the points come in)?

At 2005 Worlds, Sasha's spins in the LP had a combined base value of 10.3, compared to Michelle's 8.0.

But even more important, Sasha got a combined 3.65 GOE on her spin elements, to Michelle's 0.71.

All told, this makes Michelle a "one jump underdog" before she begins.

MM

 

[tarotx]

Sasha got very ill in France. She wasn't able to do the Trophee Lalique performance later because she wasn't healthy. The fact that Sasha went to the winter cheesefest ill as hell pissed TT off and was one of the reasons TT decided that she couldn't Coach Sasha any more.

When I try to predict who will medal at the Olympics and worlds this season I think about the fact that there has only been 2 women who've been in the top 4 ladies at Sr worlds in this quad-Sasha and Michelle.

Sasha got out of TT way better edges and speed. She also has better conditioning. Michelle already has that. I think She could have got a strong program from any choreographer. It's up to her to decide if she wants it bad enough (I believe she does). It's not about TT or any skater really but herself. If Michelle wants it-it's hers.

I adore Sasha. Watch Sasha's skating-her spirals last season. She has better edges now. It's because she is begining to limit her body to stay about 180 stretch instead of past it. The more your body is past 180 you have less control. Sasha pushes herself past what is natural and necessary. It's more draining of your energy to do that. It's the reason she gets tired easy. It's one of the reason she always messes up in her long program. Of course the fact that she always messes up has created a fear that she will mess up so it's a double whammy! If she can find a way to keep her endurance then she has a good chance of an Olympic medal. Rather she has a 3-3 or not.

 

[emma]

At 2005 Worlds, Sasha's spins in the LP had a combined base value of 10.3, compared to Michelle's 8.0.

But even more important, Sasha got a combined 3.65 GOE on her spin elements, to Michelle's 0.71.

All told, this makes Michelle a "one jump underdog" before she begins.

MM

I thought as much (without the mathematical precision), and for that reason was wondering about jump content and whether that will be an area where Michelle might be able to equalize the field so to speak.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I thought as much (without the mathematical precision), and for that reason was wondering about jump content and whether that will be an area where Michelle might be able to equalize the field so to speak.

Assuming all rotate and land what's planned, Kwan will be in the same **jump only ** range as Cohen, but Slutskaya, Ando, Arakawa, and Kostner will be ahead of Kwan in base value because of 3/3(s). And a 3T/3T from Kwan won't match the 3/3's that Slutskaya and Ando (3Lz/3Lo), Arakawa (3Lz/3T and 3S/3T), and Kostner (3F/3T) have done in the past two years, although it will surpass Cohen's 3 SEQ 3 by a couple of points.

That's a big if. Kostner has faded in the last 1-1.5 minutes of her quali LP/LP for all three years of her senior career, Arakawa had trouble completing the rotations this last year (I hope that changes for this year), and Ando was also called for underrotating the 3Lo a few times under CoP. But again, Kwan needs to land the second 3Lz and not double it to get the jump points.

Cohen, Arakawa, Slutskaya have had greater spin value than Kwan, so that makes her down one triple, as Mathman pointed out, plus the actual triple(s) in the 3/3's. Kostner's and Ando's levelled elements have been lower grades, so Kwan could make up a "lost triple" from them on base value, unless they've upped the values, like Ando is said to have done. Kostner had a serious back injury for most of last season, and couldn't spend a lot of time on upping the difficulty, but her new LP is rumored to be superb, with good values.

 

[skatingfan5]

Assuming all rotate and land what's planned, Kwan will be in the same **jump only ** range as Cohen, but Slutskaya, Ando, Arakawa, and Kostner will be ahead of Kwan in base value because of 3/3(s). And a 3T/3T from Kwan won't match the 3/3's that Slutskaya and Ando (3Lz/3Lo), Arakawa (3Lz/3T and 3S/3T), and Kostner (3F/3T) have done in the past two years, although it will surpass Cohen's 3 SEQ 3 by a couple of points.

Just one point: IF Michelle were to land even a 3T-3T and then five other triple jumps and a double axel, her base value could be just the same as skaters who landed a 3Z-3L or 3Z3T, especially if one of her other jump combinations is a 3 jump one (as she did at 2005 Worlds). A skater who landed two 3-3's would have an "extra" jumping pass to include a second double axel, but that would be the only base value advantage. With CoP, it is cumulative points and a 3Z-3T or 3Z-3L combo doesn't get any added value above the jumps done separately -- but having a triple-triple (or 2axel-triple combo) is necessary to be able to include seven triples in the program. A 3-3 sequence will actually score only 80% of what the two jumps would be individually, but again, it gives the skater a chance to include 7 triples by freeing up one of the seven allowed jumping passes.

 

[mzheng]

Sasha got out of TT way better edges and speed. She also has better conditioning. Michelle already has that. I think She could have got a strong program from any choreographer. It's up to her to decide if she wants it bad enough (I believe she does). It's not about TT or any skater really but herself. If Michelle wants it-it's hers.
.

I have to agree this. Just rewatched 2002 worlds yesterday. Sasha's skating improved soooooo much compare back then. Not only she felt then, but she was dramatically slow. Some moves she performed at 2002 worlds, stunning flexable and beautyful, yet so slow that she almost 'halt' on ice. And her spin, especially the camal spin, also very slow no more fast than Kwan, who always is critisized for her slow spin......so I'd say Sasha is in better position this time around than the last one she had....since this time she really have some goods in Figure Sakting.

Also agree that for Kwan, it all comes down to how much she wants it. If she really wants it, she'll be one of the contenders.

 

[Mathman]

Just one point: IF Michelle were to land even a 3T-3T and then five other triple jumps and a double axel, her base value could be just the same as skaters who landed a 3Z-3L or 3Z3T, especially if one of her other jump combinations is a 3 jump one (as she did at 2005 Worlds). A skater who landed two 3-3's would have an "extra" jumping pass to include a second double axel, but that would be the only base value advantage. With CoP, it is cumulative points and a 3Z-3T or 3Z-3L combo doesn't get any added value above the jumps done separately -- but having a triple-triple (or 2axel-triple combo) is necessary to be able to include seven triples in the program. A 3-3 sequence will actually score only 80% of what the two jumps would be individually, but again, it gives the skater a chance to include 7 triples by freeing up one of the seven allowed jumping passes.

Good analysis, Skatingfan5.

But I think there is another factor. If you do the most spectacular triple/triples, you get rewarded in the program component scores, too. Somehow the judges feel that a triple Lutz / triple loop shows superior choreography, interpretation, transitions, etc., etc.

I don't think Michelle can back into this one, hoping to do a little of this and a little of that and maybe the other girls will fall down. I hope she does 3Lz/3T/2Lo AND 3S/3Lo, as she has reportedly practiced. I hope she does them at Campbell's even if she falls all over the ice. Seize the day, 'Chelle! LOL.

MM

 

[R.D.]

Also agree that for Kwan, it all comes down to how much she wants it. If she really wants it, she'll be one of the contenders.

Of course the fact that she always messes up has created a fear that she will mess up so it's a double whammy! If she can find a way to keep her endurance then she has a good chance of an Olympic medal. Rather she has a 3-3 or not.

I concur.