Can anyone beat a clean Zagitova?

[yume]

Well maybe she want to do like Javi. A last medal at europeans. She will get that anyway.

 

[mrrice]

I don't know.....This was a long season when you add the Olympics, Worlds, Europeans, and Nationals to her GP events. I would be surprised if she's ready for a break from the GP Series. Maybe one last National and Europeans if she's feeling up to it.

 

[qwerty]

Wasn't it just yesterday I started this thread, but with Medvedeva's name?

I watched Evgenia's 2017 WTT program again the other day, and I think that performance would beat a clean Zagitova.

 

[yume]

A transformed panenkova maybe. She plays the same game than Zagitova technically. But her PCS are low. If she works with different choregraphers maybe she will improve. Gleikhengauz's style don't suit her.

 

[moriel]

Thank you for the time you dedicated for this research. You've put into numbers what I would have said using my words.
I don't see either how Wakaba can "easily" beat a clean Alina, even if they remove a part from the backloading bonus. Anyway, IMHO, if they want to be fair, they should also increase the value for 3Lz-3L, because that's such a hard combination.

I dunno, i like numbers.
Ive been following this forum for ages, and people go into major loops here all the time, with one saying "i think X", and other answering "I think Y", and just go on and on.
Not that numbers stop them, but at least i myself get some clue on how and what.

 

[moriel]

Wasn't it just yesterday I started this thread, but with Medvedeva's name?

I watched Evgenia's 2017 WTT program again the other day, and I think that performance would beat a clean Zagitova.

I dunno, overall, out of the ladies avaliable, i see a clean Medvedeva beating a clean Zagi, and i see a clean Osmond beating a clean Zagi.
Everybody else, just nah.

 

[TheBallerina]

I dunno, i like numbers.
Ive been following this forum for ages, and people go into major loops here all the time, with one saying "i think X", and other answering "I think Y", and just go on and on.
Not that numbers stop them, but at least i myself get some clue on how and what.

Well, you have proof and that's what really matters. It's really easy for some people to just criticise a skater, to say "oh, he didn't deserve that win", "someone else should have won (even if they had a fall and an easier program than the first person)", and so on.

I am newer on the forum than most of you, and I am still learning a lot of things, but what really amazed me were the harsh words I've read about Alina. Even if you like another skater, that's fine, but at least Alina's work and accomplishments deserve respect. She is just 15 and she already achieved so much. She is the rightful olympic champion, and the only skater that was at the same level in the Olympic Final was Medvedeva. Her technical level was far above any other, and in PCS she was surpassed by other, more mature skaters, like Kostner or Medvedeva, so it wasn't "so inflated", as I've read.

And to remain on-topic, if every other skater mentains her current technical level, I don't see how anyone beside Medvedeva can challenge Alina's win. It's just numbers. Also Alina is not so bad in PCS terms, and I foresee a lot of improvement from her part anyway regarding PCS.

Now, if Alina will skate clean, that's indeed another question. It depends on so many factors, but of course I hope she will. But that only time will tell.

 

[millie]

Okay, I'll explain what I think hanca meant.
Russian Nationals has 18 ladies. Anyone given a GP spot automatically qualifies, as does anyone who makes the JGPF AND is over 14 years old. The rest of the spots are filled by the top participants in Russian Cup events. Let's take this coming year.

GP spots:
1. Zagitova
2. Medvedeva
3. Sotskova
4. Tsurskaya
5. Radionova
6. Konstantinova
7. Tuktamysheva
8. Panenkova
Let's not discuss the host spot for now

JGPF qualifiers: of course we don't know who will qualify now, but these girls all have very high chances to:
9. Trusova
10. Kostornaya
11. Shcherbakova (she WILL be back in shape)
12. Tarakanova

If Samodurova does not move up, she has a high chance to qualify and become number 13. If she does and does not get a GP, she will qualify through Cup events, and if she does get a GP, she automatically qualifies. So spot 13 is occupied.

Then there's still a lot of good skaters with harder 3-3s and better consistency:
14. Gubanova (3Lz-3T-2T, 3Lz-3T)
15. Mikhailova (2A-3T and 2A-1Lo-3F are very good combos)
16. Gulyakova (all rippons)
17. Tarusina (3Lo-3T and 3Lz-1Lo-3F in free skating)
18. Sakhanovich (3F-3T and 3S-3T, if she decreases under Turenko, then Istomina: two 3-3s: 3T-3T + 3F-1Lo-3S, beat Tsurskaya at the Cup Final)

This doesn't even take Pogorilaya into consideration because at this point she's a giant question mark. Fedichkina is too, we haven't seen her since the fall since she's been injured and recently switched to Mishin. Really, it's no surprise that it's easy to disappear. Leonova and Sotnikova (if they want to continue) do not have good chacnes to make Nationals.

Because only 3 of these girls can go to worlds, and Medvedeva/Zagitova/Sotskova-Tsurskaya are better overall and in consistency than Kostner, they go, so she has less chances of a GP. Now she won't make Nationals, especially if she can never skate a clean free (she did not do that once this season, afaik)[/









That’s a lot of skaters, only three can get to the top. What happens to the rest of them? I wonder how many will make it the end...will they continue or fizzel out.

 

[[email protected]]

I think, only Medvedeva can beat clean Zagitova until the new generation grows up.

 

[moriel]

Lets do a few more maths here. Did this for Wakaba a while ago, now will add Medvedeva, Kostner and Osmond.

Zagitova Olympic skate as benchmark.
SP: 34.97(BV) + 10.33(GOE) + 37.62(PCs)
FS: 66.01(BV) + 15.61(GOE) + 75.03(PCs)

Medvedeva's score, considering highest score for each element.
SP: 33.10(BV) + 10.64(GOE) + 38.57(PCs)
FS: 62.76(BV) + 18.00(GOE) + 77.52(PCs)

Osmond's score, considering highest score for each element.
SP: 32.53(BV) + 9.94(GOE) + 37.03(PCs)
FS: 62.12(BV) + 19.00(GOE) + 75.76(PCs)

Kostner's score, considering highest score for each element.
SP: 31.63(BV) + 10.04(GOE) + 38.97(PCs)
FS: 56.15(BV) + 15.64(GOE) + 76.05(PCs)

Now, I added both programs and subtracted Zagitova's scores.
Medvedeva: -5.12(BV) + 2.70 (GOE) + 3.44 (PCs)
Osmond: -6.33(BV) + 3.00 (GOE) + 0.14 (PCs)
Kostner: -13.20(BV) - 0.26 (GOE) + 2.37 (PCs)


Conclusions:
Medvedeva loses to Zagitova in BV, but can compensate that with GOE and PCs. I suppose it is fair to assume that a perfect Medvedeva can beat a clean Zagitova by a small margin.
Osmond (perfectly clean) loses to Zagitova about 3 points. While it is pretty close, I would say that is very unlikely for Osmond to beat a clean Zagitova.
Kostner: no chance. Her BV is FS and overall her jump GOE basically kill all her chances. MAYBE with different PCs scoring (12 points in PCs = one skater getting all 9's and another skater getting all 8's).

Back to Wakaba: regardless PCs judging Wakaba has no chance of beating clean Zagitova, with all due respect. I know you folks like her, but be objective: the TES + GOE gap between then is of 10 points, and I don't think their PCs should be THAT different to make up for lower TES.



Medvedeva's score count, element by element.
SP
FCSp4: 3.20 + 1.21 (Olys)
StSq4: 3.90 + 2.10 (Olys)
3F+3T: 10.56 + 1.70 (Olys)
3Lo: 5.61 + 1.80 (Olys)
2A: 3.63 + 1.00 (Nepela)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.43 (Rostelecom)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.40 (Nepela)
SS: 9.54 (Olys)
TR: 9.57 (NHK)
PE: 9.71 (Olys)
CO: 9.68 (Olys)
IN: 9.71 (Olys)

FS
3F: 5.30 + 1.90 (Olys)
3Lz: 6.00 + 1.60 (Olys)
FCCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.30 (Nepela)
StSq4: 3.90 + 2.10 (Euros)
3F+3T: 10.56 + 1.70 (NHK)
3Lo: 5.61 + 1.70 (Olys)
2A+2T+2T: 6.49 + 0.79 (Olys)
3S+3T: 9.57 + 1.60 (Olys)
2A: 3.63 + 0.71 (Olys)
ChSq1: 2.00 + 1.96 (Nepela)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.21 (Euros)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.43 (NHK)
SS: 9.57 (Euros)
TR: 9.46 (Euros)
PE: 9.82 (Olys)
CO: 9.71 (Olys)
IN: 9.89 (Olys)



Osmonds's score count, element by element.
SP
3F+3T: 9.60 + 1.90 (Olys)
3Lz: 6.00 + 1.96 (Autumn)
FCSp4: 3.20 + 1.07 (Olys)
2A: 3.63 + 1.07 (Olys)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.07 (Olys)
StSq4: 3.90 + 1.80 (Olys)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.07 (Olys)
SS: 9.32 (Olys)
TR: 9.00 (Olys)
PE: 9.36 (Olys)
CO: 9.29 (Olys)
IN: 9.32 (Olys)

FS
3F+3T: 9.60 + 1.90 (Olys)
2A+3T: 7.60 + 1.90 (Olys)
3Lz: 6.00 + 2.10 (SC)
FCCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.00 (France)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.21 (Worlds)
3Lo: 5.61 + 1.80 (Worlds)
3F: 5.83 + 1.96 (Autumn)
3S+2T+2Lo: 8.25 + 1.30 (France)
StSq4: 3.90 + 1.90 (Olys)
ChSq1: 2.00 + 2.00 (Worlds)
2A: 3.63 + 0.79 (Worlds)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.14 (Olys)
SS: 9.50 (Olys)
TR: 9.21 (Olys)
PE: 9.57 (Olys)
CO: 9.46 (Worlds)
IN: 9.61 (Olys)


Kostner's score count, element by element.
SP
3F+3T: 9.60 + 1.80 (Worlds)
3Lo: 5.10 + 1.50 (Europeans)
FCSp4: 3.20 + 1.00 (NHK)
2A: 3.63 + 1.14 (Olys)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.29 (Worlds)
StSq4: 3.90 + 2.10 (Olys)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.21 (Worlds)
SS: 9.61 (Worlds)
TR: 9.46 (Worlds)
PE: 9.89 (Worlds)
CO: 9.86 (Worlds)
IN: 9.89 (Worlds)

FS
3Lz: 6.00 + 1.50 (Olys)
3F: 5.30 + 1.60 (NHK)
3Lo: 5.10 + 1.50 (Worlds)
FCSp4: 3.20 + 1.00 (Olys)
FCCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.29 (Worlds)
3T: 4.73 + 1.60 (GPF)
2A+1Lo+3S: 9.02 + 0.50 (GPF)
2A: 3.63 + 0.71 (Europeans)
3S+2T: 6.27 + 0.70 (Rostelecom)
ChSq1: 2.00 + 2.00 (GPF)
StSq4: 3.90 + 2.10 (NHK)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.14 (NHK)
SS: 9.46 (Olys)
TR: 9.39 (NHK)
PE: 9.43 (Olys)
CO: 9.57 (Olys)
IN: 9.68 (NHK)

 

[Yatagarasu]

Back to Wakaba: regardless PCs judging Wakaba has no chance of beating clean Zagitova, with all due respect. I know you folks like her, but be objective: the TES + GOE gap between then is of 10 points, and I don't think their PCs should be THAT different to make up for lower TES.

Yes, their PCS should be that different. Zagitova needs to go down for at least 10 points, and Wakaba needs to go up.

 

[chopinskate]

The problem with PCS is that it never gets scored with the skills displayed. Zagitova has a step sequence with many turns and steps, but she can't hold an edge for too long, and she pumps her body and limbs. Those SS aren't that good. PCS should also technically vary from performance to performance, unless someone literally can perform at the same level every time. I doubt anyone could.

 

[millie]

A clean med yes but certainly not a clean osmond. Have we seen a really clean Osmond lol.

But I saw the 2017-2018 World Gold Medalists. This is only the beginning for Osmond. This was the first season that she has been healthy and injury free. And look what she did......A force to be reckoned with. I don’t know if Alina will ever recover from her disasterous Worlds. Will she recover her confidence, only time will tell. It’s not what Osmond done in the past it’s what she done at Worlds. In a competition with no backloading, fair judging, skating the same program, element for element, no holds barred...Osmond for sure.

 

[snd]

Easily beat clean Zagitova?
Lets take a look. Zagi was clean at Olympics, so we can take that for benchmark.
SP: 34.97(BV) + 10.33(GOE) + 37.62(PCs) = 82.92
FS: 66.01(BV) + 15.61(GOE) + 75.03(PCs) = 156.65

For Wakaba, lets just count the best score for each element in her performances this season.
SP: 31.06(BV) + 7.97(GOE) + 34.18(PCs)
FS: 63.11(BV) + 14.47(GOE) + 70.29(PCs)

So we have the following:
Total BV: 100.98 (Zagitova) vs 94.17(Wakaba)
Total GOE: 25.94 (Zagitova) vs 22.44(Wakaba)
PCs: lets not talk about those

Notice that Wakaba's scores are the best score she got for each element, added up.
To beat Alina, Wakaba needs, on top of her very best, add 6.8 points in BV (you know, thats a whole jumping pass) and 3.5 in GOE.
I don't see how she can easily increase her scores by 10 points above her best, with no mistakes at all.



Wakaba's score count, element by element.
SP
2A: 3.30 + 1.00 (Worlds)
FCSp4: 3.20 + 0.79 (Rostelecom)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.00 (Lombardia)
3Lz+3T: 11.33 + 1.30 (Nationals)
3F: 5.83 + 1.28 (Lombardia)
StSq4: 3.90 + 1.50 (Rostelecom)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.10 (Lombardia)

SS: 8.57 (GPF)
TR: 8.29 (GPF)
PE: 8.71 (GPF)
CO: 8.54 (GPF)
IN: 8.61 (GPF)


FS
2A: 3.30 + 1.00 (Nationals)
3Lz+3T: 10.30 + 1.30 (Nationals)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.07 (Rostelecom)
ChSq1: 2.00 + 1.77 (Challenge Cup)
3S: 4.40 + 1.40 (Challenge Cup)
3Lz+3T: 11.33 + 1.26 (Lombardia)
3Lo: 5.61 + 1.30 (CoC)
2A+2T+2Lo: 7.04 + 0.71 (Worlds)
3F: 5.83 + 0.90 (Nationals)
FCSp4: 3.20 + 0.70 (Lombardia)
StSq4: 3.90 + 1.96 (Lombardia)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.10 (Lombardia)

SS: 8.86 (Worlds)
TR: 8.57 (Worlds)
PE: 8.86 (Worlds)
CO: 8.75 (Worlds)
IN: 8.89 (Worlds)

yes, easily. i don't care about your numbers, they are from past competitions. this thread is not about whether anyone has beaten a clean zagitova in the 17-18 season but whether they can in the future. in the past, these two have been scored incorrectly. if wakaba was scored correctly on pcs (average 9-10) and zagitova was, too (average 5.5-7.5), clean alina's tech wouldn't be enough.

whether these two will ever be scored correctly, of course, remains to be seen.

 

[qwertyskates]

As long as Zagitova keeps getting her criminally high PCS, only Medvedeva. If we remove her criminally high PCS into at least nightmare territory then Kaet could probably skip over her too.

Wakaba no way as she's underscored so her own personal nightmare in the other direction has to end first. I mean her best FS scored the same PCS as Zagitova's Worlds meltdown.

LOL what even is PCS. Kill that with fire then throw salt at it.

You are seriously saying that Wakaba, who has won only two Sr. GP Bronze medals, 1 Silver, none of them Gold, should beat a 4 Sr GP/GPF, Rus Nationals, Euro and Olympic GOLD medalist in PCS?

She is ONLY older than Alina by 1 year - if Alina is some 15 year old Wakaba is some 16 year old with PCS close to Yuna et al. for achieving very little so far, up till Worlds.

PCS is judged separately from TES, and her PCS fell due to interruption because of the falls.

 

[MIM]

Okay the answer relies heavily on the base values, (but it is not the only factor!)
Here are the BV when the skaters were clean(ish) and executed their planned elements well enough.
Zagitova @ the olympics ; 66.01
Higuchi @ worlds ; 63.11 (I raised her step sequence from 3 to 4)
Med @ the Olympics ; 62.33
Osmond @ the olympics and the worlds (same) ; 62.12


What makes Zagitova stronger is not only she back-loads ALL her jumps, but also she has two lutz and two flips. I see Higuchi strong because she has 2 lutz+toe combos.
These two ladies are strongest in terms of maximizing BV.

Med's 3S3T and Osmond's 2a3T are amazing as they are, but in comparison they are weaker second combination jump elements.

To answer OP's questions, Clean Alina has superior BV to anyone at this point. She wins the highest BV. But we know that the highest BV does not mean getting the highest PCS and TSS, let alone winning the event.

 

[Shayuki]

yes, easily. i don't care about your numbers, they are from past competitions. this thread is not about whether anyone has beaten a clean zagitova in the 17-18 season but whether they can in the future. in the past, these two have been scored incorrectly. if wakaba was scored correctly on pcs (average 9-10) and zagitova was, too (average 5.5-7.5), clean alina's tech wouldn't be enough.

whether these two will ever be scored correctly, of course, remains to be seen.

Well, this is about whether anyone can beat Zagitova though. Not about whether anyone theoretically could if PCS was scored accurately. Furthermore... I think it's fair to expect Alina to improve when it comes to the PCS categories. She's well ahead of Wakaba at the same age in that regard, for instance.

 

[lusk8]

Just on jumping scores the NYtimes did a great piece a while back comparing all Olympic gold medalists skaters (only the jumps scores)?from 76 on up with Alina.

And here it is: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/22/sports/olympics/womens-figure-skating-jumps.html

I’d say what Alina does, at the level of difficulty she carries, is pretty awesome.

 

[chopinskate]

I mean, sure, though some things would vary less, and some more. IMO, there's a general overscoring when it comes to PCS, and it's especially problematic in the ladies field. It's just that Zagitova's scores take the cake there, she's pushed so far out there, that's pretty much untouchable, compared to what she produces, and when you look at her scores you would think you're watching the greatest overall female skater of all times, which yeah, no.

Agree and disagree. I think, at least for the programs this season, Medvedeva took the cake.

I do agree that Zagitova and Medvedeva are both extremely overscored relative to the skills and programs they display. SS aren't 9 level ever, TR are crammed in without any thought for effect, performance is shallow, composition is ineffective, interpretation is superficial. However, when it comes to it, Zagitova had a better program because the jumping section (two minutes of it) was matched to the music fairly well. Moreover, while both have performances that are shallow, the excitement that Zagitova displays after completing her jumping passes as she goes into her final spin is more in character of Kitri, than anything Medvedeva does during her program. For this reason, and this reason only, I would rank Zagitova to be above Medvedeva in terms of PCS.

But yes, PCS, especially for ladies is extremely problematic, and is simply a ranking mechanism, and Zagitova really was pushed out there. Simply talking about what actually happens with the PCS: IMO, it was done to set-up the final showdown at the Olympics... But with Medevedeva's injury, Zagitova kept winning everything and her PCS reached through the roof.

Relative to an overall field (say anyone who's done a program under CoP), I would probably never rank those Olympic LPs anywhere close to the top 50 (I recently evaluated Yuna's Les Mis WC13, and gave it a PCS of 73.2, for comparison. I think it's the best LP by a lady under CoP. In writing this, I think I should have gone higher, though probably not.). I just don't think it's a real comparison to what Yuna, Mao, and the others put out there, because them and their programs were never here. Since the judges pick out favourites (and feds push whoever), and score everything relative to each other, who knows what might have happened if they were? PCS isn't on an all-time scale, though and the way to measure it over the years, and the corridor, has changed because of how it is evaluated (random judge dropped vs. highest and lowest dropped), so the programs' scoring wouldn't stand comparison anyway. Now what the general audience thinks after seeing those PCS...

But, I would definitely laugh with you if the backloading rule passes next season.

 

[NanaPat]

A clean med yes but certainly not a clean osmond. Have we seen a really clean Osmond lol.

We've seen a clean Osmond about as much as we've seen a clean Zagitova. If we've giving one credit for going clean, then we have to give the others credit for going clean as well.