Can anyone beat a clean Zagitova?

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Let's not turn this thread into one more bash fest for any skater. I supposed that this would be a thread to discuss next season's prospects for top contenders.
Of course a lot depends on what rules will be for the next season, how judges will use new GOEs. Btw, will Kostner continue to compete?
Trusova and Kostornaya aren't yet in contention.

I don't know if Kostner is willing to compete next season but Zagitova's PCS has caught up to her and Kostner's relatively lower FS BV doesn't keep her competitive with a clean Zagitova. A clean Zagitova should be miles ahead of a clean Kostner by virtue of TES, but a clean Kostner should be miles ahead of a clean Zagitova in terms of PCS (with Zagitova having the overall edge).

Luckily for Zagitova, Trusova and Kostornaia aren't in contention but I think it's worth mentioning they could best hear. After all they will compete against her at Russian Nationals and it's possible the winner of senior Russian nationals will not get to go to Worlds - which I don't think has ever happened?

 

[Lily flowers]

Luckily for Zagitova, Trusova and Kostornaia aren't in contention but I think it's worth mentioning they could best hear. After all they will compete against her at Russian Nationals and it's possible the winner of senior Russian nationals will not get to go to Worlds - which I don't think has ever happened?[/B]

I don’t think they’d make a junior beat a senior at senior national, they’d give them PCS according to their junior status. But Trusova could be special case

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I don’t think they’d make a junior beat a senior at senior national, they’d give them PCS according to their junior status. But Trusova could be special case

Hah that's what I mean! With mid-90s TES she might win - especially if Zagitova makes errors.

 

[hanca]

I wouldn't bet on Trusova, Kostornaia and Scherbakova so frankly. They are 13yo and 14yo kids and will be seniors in two seasons. A lot can happen in two seasons and not everybody can have Medvedeva's luck whom body didn't change that much.
Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva were really greats at 14yo and everyone thought they would be the bigs things next season. But no.

In one season, not two seasons. All three of them have one more junior season to do and then they will be senior eligible. But otherwise I partially agree, there is no guarantee that all three will make it. However, based on probability, there is a high chance that one of them will make it.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Hah that's what I mean! With mid-90s TES she might win - especially if Zagitova makes errors.

That can’t happen in this thread

 

[snd]

wakaba should be easily able to.

 

[russianfan]

I don’t think they’d make a junior beat a senior at senior national, they’d give them PCS according to their junior status. But Trusova could be special case

this girl can beat anyone even with 60 pcs

Luckily for Zagitova, Trusova and Kostornaia aren't in contention but I think it's worth mentioning they could best hear. After all they will compete against her at Russian Nationals and it's possible the winner of senior Russian nationals will not get to go to Worlds - which I don't think has ever happened?

This year's Nationals will be extremely exciting, because of so many superstrong juniors being eligible. I'm thinking about going there, I only wish they would choose a better city/arena for it than Saransk previous two Nationals were on pretty high level, not so sure about this one.
And who knows what will happen if let's say Trusova will land 2-3 quads, she may be able to win it. Nobody predicted Alina's second place in her debut season.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Luckily for Zagitova, Trusova and Kostornaia aren't in contention but I think it's worth mentioning they could best hear. After all they will compete against her at Russian Nationals and it's possible the winner of senior Russian nationals will not get to go to Worlds - which I don't think has ever happened?

Sotnikova won it at the age of 12

 

[Anna K.]

I don’t think they’d make a junior beat a senior at senior national, they’d give them PCS according to their junior status. But Trusova could be special case

Hah that's what I mean! With mid-90s TES she might win - especially if Zagitova makes errors.

Zagitova did nothing but junior interpretation, actually. I don't think you (and judges) ever noticed though because the music choice was suitable, the program was smartly choreographed, and the skater's physical features were excellent. Hence (deservedly) high PCS for a junior. I don't see why this can't happen to Trusova or any other girl with the same team behind them

 

[yume]

In one season, not two seasons. All there of them have one more junior season to do and then they will be senior eligible. But otherwise I partially agree, there is no guarantee that all three will make it. However, based on probability, there is a high chance that one of them will make it.

Yes i know. I thought it was clear that i was meaning the season after next season. That's why i said in two seasons and not after two seasons.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Sotnikova won it at the age of 12

Ah right right - edged out Tuktamysheva.... Evgenia Tarasova also competed in that event!

 

[yume]

this girl can beat anyone even with 60 pcs .

At their max:
Trusova: 92 TES
Zagitova: 83 TES

9 points of gap in TES os not enough to beat a Zagitova who can have 75 PCS. So Trusova need at least 66.
More, i highly doubt that Trusova will repeat her junior worlds performance more than 1 or 2 time in a season. While Zagitova did her backloaded program as she breathe.

Edit: With choreo seq Trusova can have 95 TES. So she needs 63 PCS.

 

[millie]

You can’t depend on the little Russian girls beating Zagitova due to the fact, there is no longitivtiy in Russian skaters. They are here today and gone tomorrow. Not like other countries, where the skaters stick around for example Kostner. I think that if she sticks around next season, she will give Zagitova a run for her money. Especially with no backloading and lowering the value of jumps and her presentation marks, I would say yes.

 

[yume]

You can’t depend on the little Russian girls beating Zagitova due to the fact, there is no longitivtiy in Russian skaters. They are here today and gone tomorrow. Not like other countries, where the skaters stick around for example Kostner.

Kostner have the luxury to have all Italy for herself.
If she was Russian and took part to Russian nationals we would see if she would appear at any major international competition during the last 2 years.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

1. It's not that there's no backloading, it's that there will either be less of a reward or a limit on the number. So backloading will still help Alina, as she can put her easy jumps in the first half to maximize the backloading bonus
2. The only reason Kostner has longevity is that there is literally no one else in her country that can challenge her for spots. So you're saying that having no other talented skaters is a good thing...
3. The only reason SOME Russian girls don't have longevity is that there are others who are better. It's not that they got worse.

 

[moriel]

wakaba should be easily able to.

Easily beat clean Zagitova?
Lets take a look. Zagi was clean at Olympics, so we can take that for benchmark.
SP: 34.97(BV) + 10.33(GOE) + 37.62(PCs) = 82.92
FS: 66.01(BV) + 15.61(GOE) + 75.03(PCs) = 156.65

For Wakaba, lets just count the best score for each element in her performances this season.
SP: 31.06(BV) + 7.97(GOE) + 34.18(PCs)
FS: 63.11(BV) + 14.47(GOE) + 70.29(PCs)

So we have the following:
Total BV: 100.98 (Zagitova) vs 94.17(Wakaba)
Total GOE: 25.94 (Zagitova) vs 22.44(Wakaba)
PCs: lets not talk about those

Notice that Wakaba's scores are the best score she got for each element, added up.
To beat Alina, Wakaba needs, on top of her very best, add 6.8 points in BV (you know, thats a whole jumping pass) and 3.5 in GOE.
I don't see how she can easily increase her scores by 10 points above her best, with no mistakes at all.



Wakaba's score count, element by element.
SP
2A: 3.30 + 1.00 (Worlds)
FCSp4: 3.20 + 0.79 (Rostelecom)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.00 (Lombardia)
3Lz+3T: 11.33 + 1.30 (Nationals)
3F: 5.83 + 1.28 (Lombardia)
StSq4: 3.90 + 1.50 (Rostelecom)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.10 (Lombardia)

SS: 8.57 (GPF)
TR: 8.29 (GPF)
PE: 8.71 (GPF)
CO: 8.54 (GPF)
IN: 8.61 (GPF)


FS
2A: 3.30 + 1.00 (Nationals)
3Lz+3T: 10.30 + 1.30 (Nationals)
CCoSp4: 3.50 + 1.07 (Rostelecom)
ChSq1: 2.00 + 1.77 (Challenge Cup)
3S: 4.40 + 1.40 (Challenge Cup)
3Lz+3T: 11.33 + 1.26 (Lombardia)
3Lo: 5.61 + 1.30 (CoC)
2A+2T+2Lo: 7.04 + 0.71 (Worlds)
3F: 5.83 + 0.90 (Nationals)
FCSp4: 3.20 + 0.70 (Lombardia)
StSq4: 3.90 + 1.96 (Lombardia)
LSp4: 2.70 + 1.10 (Lombardia)

SS: 8.86 (Worlds)
TR: 8.57 (Worlds)
PE: 8.86 (Worlds)
CO: 8.75 (Worlds)
IN: 8.89 (Worlds)

 

[TheBallerina]

Entire post

Thank you for the time you dedicated for this research. You've put into numbers what I would have said using my words.
I don't see either how Wakaba can "easily" beat a clean Alina, even if they remove a part from the backloading bonus. Anyway, IMHO, if they want to be fair, they should also increase the value for 3Lz-3L, because that's such a hard combination.

 

[Ziotic]

I think the ISU really doesn’t like having one dominating figure in any disciple.

I’m sure the rule changes will result with more horses in the race. Both for ladies and dance. Men and pairs already have good competition for the top.

 

[OS]

Yeah many can - if they bother to mark PCS correctly. To require that you need a balanced independent truly international panel with no predetermined incentives like fed/politics interests.

If Zagitova skate for China, her PCS are likely to stuck in Li Zi Jun level for at least a few years years before they decide to give it to her.

Benchmarking is a big folly, and totally inaccurate when

1. You get home favoured events.
2. Put together judge panels in favour of home skaters and against away skaters.
3. Only invite weak skaters to compete and actually penalise your strongest competitors to 'set false benchmark'.

Unfortunately this is a problem plague the sport with all federations... so unless they change the rule at the top, it will never change. Power fed will always muscle their way to get the biggest advantage behind the scenes.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

1. It's not that there's no backloading, it's that there will either be less of a reward or a limit on the number. So backloading will still help Alina, as she can put her easy jumps in the first half to maximize the backloading bonus
2. The only reason Kostner has longevity is that there is literally no one else in her country that can challenge her for spots. So you're saying that having no other talented skaters is a good thing...
3. The only reason SOME Russian girls don't have longevity is that there are others who are better. It's not that they got worse.

Don't get it twisted. Kostner has longevity because she has worked hard. Even when she's gotten older, she added/regained difficulty like her 3F+3T that she's landing at the age of 31. Got an Olympic bronze at the age of 27 (another event where she stepped up her technical game to be more competitive).

She's also taken care of her body, whereas a lot of skaters (to your 3rd point) experience burnout. Or they fizzle out when their bodies change and they're not longer able to execute their tech potential (see: Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva, Radionova). Kostner has also developed her artistry over time instead of just relying on technical elements -- it's why she gets the highest (sometimes too high) PCS whenever she skates. Her quality of skating and expression is second to none, IMO.

Had Kostner skated as well as she has earlier this season, e.g. her Grand Prix events, she would have medalled at Worlds. Where she still won the SP and beat the Olympic champion overall. Again, at the age of 31. Coming off a 16-month ban. That success has nothing to do with other skaters challenging or not challenging her for spots in her own country. She's held her own internationally quite well - been at 14 straight Worlds - placing top 6 in 10 of them, including 1st - and almost podiumed at her most recent Worlds.

She's a freaking miracle on ice, and her longevity will not be reduced to "nobody in her country pushing her" or "Kostner have the luxury of all Italy for herself" (yume). If anything, it's more remarkable how high a level she has managed to maintain, and her numerous accolades, in spite of not really having anyone to push her nationally.