American Championships: Predictions Game Round 7 | Golden Skate

American Championships: Predictions Game Round 7

CaroLiza_fan

MINIOL ALATMI REKRIS. EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA.
Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Country
Northern-Ireland
Here is the thread where you can make your predictions for the American Championships.

Entries/Results Page:
http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2015/2015_us_fs_champs/results.html

The Senior competitions start on 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] January 2015 at 16:35 EST (22:35 CET / 21:35 GMT) with the Pairs Short.

So, predictions need to be in 1 hour before that, i.e. 15:35 EST (21:35 CET / 20:35 GMT)

If you need any help working out what time this is where you are, here is a Time Converter that Mrs. P very kindly posted in the Cup of China Predictions thread.

Please Note: Although there was no overlap between the Senior competitions at the American and Canadian National Championships last year, unfortunately there is this year. In Canada, the Senior competitions are being held on Friday 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] and Saturday 24[SUP]th[/SUP] January, with the Gala on the afternoon of Sunday 25[SUP]th[/SUP]. In America, the Senior competitions are being held on all 3 days (23[SUP]rd[/SUP], 24[SUP]th[/SUP] and 25[SUP]th[/SUP]), with the Gala on Sunday evening.


Entries

So that we could start predicting before the final entry lists were released, golden411 very kindly posted a link to the list of qualifiers in the first post below.

THANK YOU SO MUCH golden411!!! :clap: :points:

Ladies:

StN.NameNationSection
1Caroline ZHANGAll Year FSCPacific Coast
2Ashley SHINDallas FSCMidwestern
3Amber GLENNDallas FSCMidwestern
4Angela WANGSalt Lake Figure SkatingBye
5Madison VINCIWashington FSCEastern
6Christina CLEVELANDStrongsville SCMidwestern
7Katie MCBEATHWestminster FSC of ErieEastern
8Leah KEISERAll Year FSCPacific Coast
9Courtney HICKSAll Year FSCBye
10Franchesca CHIERAPanthers FSCEastern
11Polina EDMUNDSPeninsula SCBye
12Tyler PIERCEAll Year FSCPacific Coast
13Ashley WAGNERSC of WilmingtonBye
14Maria YANGWashington FSCEastern
15Ashley CAINSC of New YorkBye
16Samantha CESARIOSC of New YorkBye
17Hannah MILLERLansing SCBye
18Christina GAOSC of BostonBye
19Gracie GOLDWagon Wheel FSCBye
20Mariah BELLRocky Mountain FSCMidwestern
21Karen CHENPeninsula SCPacific Coast
22Mirai NAGASUPasadena FSBye


Men:

StN.
Name
Nation
Section
1
Philip WARREN
All Year FSC
Pacific Coast
2
Ross MINER
SC of Boston
Bye
3
Alexander JOHNSON
Broadmoor SC
Midwestern
4
Sebastien PAYANNET
Rocky Mountain FSC
Midwestern
5
Nathan CHEN
Salt Lake Figure Skating
Pacific Coast
6
Adam RIPPON
The SC of New York
Bye
7
Shotaro OMORI
Los Angeles FSC
Pacific Coast
8
Stephen CARRIERE
SC of Boston
Bye
9
Jimmy MA
SC of New York
Eastern
10
Robert PRZEPIOSKI
Rochester FSC
Midwestern
11
Douglas RAZZANO
Coyotes SC of Arizona
Bye
12
Jason BROWN
Skokie Valley SC
Bye
13
Richard DORNBUSH
All Year FSC
Bye
14
Patrick RUPP
Orlando FSC
Eastern
15
Sean RABBITT
Glacier Falls FSC
Pacific Coast
16
Jordan MOELLER
Northern Ice SC
Midwestern
17
Grant HOCHSTEIN
SC of New York
Eastern
18
Max AARON
Broadmoor SC
Bye
19
Joshua FARRIS
Broadmoor SC
Bye
20
Timothy DOLENSKY
Atlanta FSC
Eastern
21
Jeremy ABBOTT
Detroit SC
Bye


Pairs:

StN.NameNationSection
1Anya DAVIDOVICH / AJ REISSIndividual member / Los Angeles FSCPacific Coast
2Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRANSC of Boston / SC of BostonEastern
3DeeDee LENG / Simon SHNAPIRDuPage FSC / SC of BostonBye
4Cali FUJIMOTO / Nicholas BARSI-RHYNEPeninsula SC / SC of Lake PlacidEastern
5Jessica Noelle CALALANG / Zack SIDHUDuPage FSC / Las Vegas FSCMidwestern
6Olivia OLTMANNS / Joshua SANTILLANBroadmoor SC / All Year FSCMidwestern
7Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIMDuPage FSC / Broadmoor SCBye
8Alexandria SHAUGHNESSY / James MORGANSC of Boston / SC of BostonEastern
9Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIERBroadmoor SC / All Year FSCBye
10Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEASouthwest Florida FSC / Skokie Valley FSCEastern
11Gretchen DONLAN / Nathan BARTHOLOMAYSC of Boston / Southwest Florida FSCBye
12Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGECoyotes SC of Arizona / Broadmoor SCBye

W/DBrianna de la MORA / Taylor WILSONTexas Gulf Coast FSC / Texas Gulf Coast FSCMidwestern


Dance:

StN.NameNationSection
1Kristen NARDOZZI / Nick TRAXLERStars FSC of Texas / Stars FSC of TexasMidwestern
2Tory PATSIS / Nathaniel FASTSkokie Valley SC / University ISC of San JosePacific Coast
3Anastasia OLSON / Ian LORELLODetroit SC / Detroit SCMidwestern
4Gabriela Morrell ZUCKER / Andrejs SITIKSAll Year FSC / Gardens FSC of MarylandPacific Coast
5Pauline BYNUM / Jason DEVEIKISAll Year FSC / Ann Arbor FSCPacific Coast
6Charlotte MAXWELL / Ryan DEVEREAUXArctic FSC / Pittsburgh FSCMidwestern
7Kseniya PONOMARYOVA / Oleg ALTUKHOVSkokie Valley SC / Escondido FSCMidwestern
8Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKERDetroit SC / Seattle SCBye
9Madison CHOCK / Evan BATESAll Year FSC / Ann Arbor FSCBye
10Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANIThe SC of New York / Arctic FSCBye
11Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUSUniversity of Delaware FSC / SC of BostonEastern
12Ginna HOPTMAN / Pavel FILCHENKOVIceWorks SC / IceWorks SCEastern
13Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUEDetroit SC / Detroit SCBye
14Ashlyn GAUGHAN / Cody LITHCOBroadmoor SC / Lilac City FSCPacific Coast
15Danielle GAMELIN / Alexander GAMELINThe SC of New York / The SC of New YorkEastern
16Elicia REYNOLDS / Stephen REYNOLDSIceWorks SC / IceWorks SCEastern
17Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATONDetroit SC / Detroit SCBye

W/DAlissandra ARONOW / Collin BRUBAKERArctic FSC / All Year FSCPacific Coast


Please be aware that these are the provisional entry lists, and they may change by the time the Entry/Results page comes online.
EDIT (20[SUP]th[/SUP] January 2015): I am so sorry. I just discovered that the Senior competitions start a day earlier than I thought.

I thought the Short Dance (17:15 EST on 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] January 2015) was the first competition. It's not. The first competition is actually the Pairs Short, just over 24 hours earlier. So, here are the amended timings:

The Senior competitions start on 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] January 2015 at 16:35 EST (22:35 CET / 21:35 GMT) with the Pairs Short.

So, predictions need to be in 1 hour before that, i.e. 15:15 EST (21:35 CET / 20:35 GMT)

I always knew I found those timetable PDF's hard to follow, but I never thought I would make a mistake as big as this.​

EDIT (21[SUP]st[/SUP] January 2015): Replaced Ladies, Pairs and Dance Entry Lists with SP Start Orders (The Men will follow whenever their order is announced).​

Let the fun begin!!! :biggrin:

CaroLiza_fan
 
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CaroLiza_fan

MINIOL ALATMI REKRIS. EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA.
Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Country
Northern-Ireland
The official USFS list of skaters who qualified for Nats was published in November.

But, as we have seen many times (most recently at this year's Russian Championships), not everybody who qualifies actually goes. Many things can happen in 2 months that can prevent you competing - injuries, splits, just plain withdrawals...

However, since people want to start predicting, I suppose I can post the qualifying lists, and use the disclaimer I always put at the end as my get-out-of-jail-free card!

And then, when the official list comes out, I'll edit them down like I did for Russia.

Just give me half an hour or so to get the tables and ISU Bios sorted

CaroLiza_fan
 

CaroLiza_fan

MINIOL ALATMI REKRIS. EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA.
Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Country
Northern-Ireland
Just give me half an hour or so to get the tables and ISU Bios sorted

CaroLiza_fan

Well, it took me rather longer than expected, but I now have now converted the qualifying lists into tabels, and posted them in the original post.

Another thing that held it up greatly was that there are so many couples that have changed partners since they last competed internationally. Here are the Bios I have used for them:


Hope this helps

CaroLiza_fan
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
But, as we have seen many times (most recently at this year's Russian Championships), not everybody who qualifies actually goes. Many things can happen in 2 months that can prevent you competing - injuries, splits, just plain withdrawals...

Sorry for my oblivion re whatever happened at Russian Nationals, to which I paid very little attention. If many of the qualifiers dropped out, I was not aware.
Hope that the U.S. qualifiers list does not lead anyone playing the GS game astray -- obviously not my intention.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the stats for 2014 U.S. Nats. For better or worse:
  • 19 of 20 men who qualified did compete. The exception was Lysacek, b/c of injury.
  • 12 of 13 pairs who qualified did compete. The exception was Simpson/Blackmer, b/c of their split.
  • All 21 ladies who qualified did compete.
  • All 18 dance couples who qualified did compete.
  • The two exceptions above were public knowledge by Dec 20, when you used the list of qualifiers for your OP in the Game thread (and noted the exceptions, of course). ;)
http://www.usfsa.org/content/2014 qualifiers.pdf
http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2014/2014_us_fs_champs/results.html
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...s-Game-Round-5&p=807323&viewfull=1#post807323
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...s-Game-Round-5&p=807333&viewfull=1#post807333

Good luck to all the 2015 skaters and to all playing the GS game. :)


Well, it took me rather longer than expected, but I now have now converted the qualifying lists into tabels, and posted them in the original post. ...
I will quote below what I said to you in last year's thread, b/c my feelings have not changed :bow::
I am not playing the game, so I should not stick my nose in .. but I really cannot help myself #SorryNotSorry:

CL_fan, I must say that I think you are going waaaaaay above and beyond the call of duty to provide hyperlinks to the many, many bios.

To save yourself a lot of trouble, I think that it would more than suffice simply to offer links to the four ISU pages that in turn provide the bio links for each discipline.
And a link to the IceNetwork general bio page where one can search by name for individual skaters. ....

I for one encourage you not to go to such extraordinary lengths.
Just setting up the basic structure of the game (apart from the bio links) as you are doing is a sizable contribution unto itself.

In any case, many thanks to you and to all who make the GS games happen. Even though I don't play, it is fun to keep an eye on the game threads.
 
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cheerknithanson

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Country
United-States
My eyes popped out of my head when I saw the name "Gabriela Morrell Zucker." I used to dance ballet with her!!!! And I think she went to my synagogue! Holy Crab! :jaw:
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Alright, I'll give it a start... will probably update/switch around.

Dance:

1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibs
3. Hubble/Donahue
4. Hawayek/Baler
5. Aldridge/ Eton
6. Cannuscio/McManus

Pairs:
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/ Knierim
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Kayne/O'Shea
5. Castelli/Tran
6. Donlan/Bartholomay

Ladies
1.Gold
2. Wagner
3. Nagasu
4. Cesario
5. Hicks
6. Edmunds
7. Bell

Men:

1. Brown
2. Aaron
3. Abbot
4. Farris
5. Rippon
6. Dornbush
 

silverfoxes

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 16, 2014
Men:

1. Brown
2. Aaron
3. Dornbush
4. Rippon
5. Abbott
6. Chen

Ladies:

1. Gold
2. Wagner
3. Hicks
4. Edmunds
5. Cesario
6. Nagasu

Pairs:

1. Scimeca/Knierem
2. Denney/Frazier
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Castelli/Tran
5. Calalang/Sidhu
6. Leng/Shnapir

Ice Dance:

1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutanis
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Hubble/Donohue
5. Cannuscio/McManus
6. Aldridge/Eaton
 

Wo|flax

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 22, 2014
Men:
1.Aaron
2.Brown(im going to be switching these two a lot I know it)
3.Dornbush
4.Abbott
5.Rippon
6.Omori
7.Farris
8.Chen

Ladies:

1.Wagner
2.Gold
3.Cessario
4.Hicks
5.Edmunds :biggrin:
6.Nagasu

Dance:
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutanis
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Aldrige/Eaton

Pairs
1. Scimeca/ Knierim
2. Denney/ Frazier
3. Aaron/ Settlage
4. Castelli/ Schnapir
5. Kayne/ O'Shea
 
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SashaJuliaSpins

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
DANCE

  1. Madison Chock & Evan Bates
  2. Maia Shibutani & Alex Shibutani
  3. Madison Hubbell & Zachary Donohue
  4. Kaitlyn Hawayek & Jean-Luc Baker
  5. Alexandra Aldridge & Daniel Eaton
  6. Anastasia Cannuscio & Colin McManus
  7. Anastasia Olson & Ian Lorello


LADIES (probably change this 10 more times, some are just too close to call. Any combination may just work other than top 2):bang:
  1. Gracie Gold
  2. Ashley Wagner
  3. Karen Chen
  4. Courtney Hicks
  5. Polina Edmunds
  6. Samantha Cesario
  7. Mirai Nagasu :slink:


This one is the hardest I have done so far!:drama: I might as well have used a randomizer!

MEN
  1. Jason Brown
  2. Jeremy Abbott
  3. Nathan Chen (Decided to stick to my gut :laugh2:)
  4. Adam Rippon
  5. Max Aaron
  6. Richard Dornbush
  7. Stephen Carriere




PAIRS
  1. Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier
  2. Tarah Kayne & Daniel O'Shea
  3. Alexa Scimeca & Christopher Knierim
  4. Marissa Castelli & Mervyn Tran
  5. Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage
  6. Gretchen Donlan & Nathan Bartholomay
  7. Jessica Calalang & Zach Sidhu
  8. Dee Dee Leng & Simon Shnapir
 
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sunnystars

#teamotherskaters
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 14, 2014
women
  1. ashley wagner
  2. gracie gold
  3. courtney hicks
  4. samantha cesario
  5. mariah bell
  6. mirai nagasu

men
  1. jason brown
  2. richard dornbush
  3. jeremy abbott
  4. max aaron
  5. stephene carriere
  6. douglas razzano


pairs
  1. denney/frazier
  2. scimeca/knierim
  3. aaron/settlage
  4. kayne/o’shea
  5. calalang/sidhu
  6. leng/shnapir


ice dance
  1. chock/bates
  2. shibutanis
  3. hubbell/donohue
  4. hawayek/baker
  5. aldridge/eaton
  6. cannuscio/mcmanus
 

IcyEdges

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2013
Here we go:
Men:
Abbott
Brown
Dornbush
Farris/Aaron
Razzano

Ladies:
Wagner
Gold
Edmunds
Wang/Cesario

Dance:

Chock/Bates
Shibs
Hubbell/Donohue
Hawayek/Baker
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
Men:

1. Brown
2. Abbott
3. Aaron
4. Dornbush
5. Farris
--
6. Miner

Ladies:

1. Gold
2. Wagner
3. Hicks
4. Edmunds
5. Cesario
--
6. Nagasu

Pairs:

1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Knierim
3. Kayne/O'Shea
4. Aaron/Settlage
5. Castelli/Tran
--
6. Calalang/Sidhu

Ice Dance:

1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutani/Shibutani
3. Hubbell/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Aldridge/Eaton
--
6. Cannuscio/McManus
 
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flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Men- this one is so hard
1. Brown
2. Aaron
3. Chen
4. Dornbush
5. Rippon
6. Abbott/Farris

Ladies
1. Wagner
2. Gold
3. Edmunds
4. Hicks
5. Cesario
6. Nagasu

Pairs
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Knierim
3. Kayne/O'Shea
4. Aaron/Settlage
5. Castelli/Tran
6. Calalang & Sidhu

Dance
1. Chock and Bates by a huge margin
2. Shibs
3. Hawayek and Baker
4. HubDon
5. Aldridge/Eaton
6. CanMan
 
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HanDomi

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
1. Aaron
2. Rippon
3. Farris
4. Brown
5. Dornbush
6. Abott

Ladies
1. Gold
2. Wagner
3. Cesario
4. Edmunds
5. Nagasu
6. Hicks

Pairs
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Kayne/O'Shea
3. Scimeca/Knierim
4. Aaron/Settlage
5. Castelli/Tran
6. Leng/Shnapir

Dance
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutanis
3. Hawayek/ Baker
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Aldridge/Eaton
6. Cannuscio/McManus
 
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invisiblespiral

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Men:

1. Brown
2. Abbott
3. Aaron
4. Rippon
5. Miner

6. Dornbush

Ladies:

1. Wagner
2. Gold
3. Edmunds
4. Hicks
5. Cesario

6. Nagasu?

Pairs:

1. Denney/Fraizer
2. Scimeca/Knirem
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Castelli/Tran
5. Leng/Shanipir

Ice Dance:

1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutani/Shibutani
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Aldridge/Eaton

6. Cannuscio/McManus.
 

CaroLiza_fan

MINIOL ALATMI REKRIS. EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA.
Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Country
Northern-Ireland
Sorry for my oblivion re whatever happened at Russian Nationals, to which I paid very little attention. If many of the qualifiers dropped out, I was not aware.
Hope that the U.S. qualifiers list does not lead anyone playing the GS game astray -- obviously not my intention.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the stats for 2014 U.S. Nats. For better or worse:
  • 19 of 20 men who qualified did compete. The exception was Lysacek, b/c of injury.
  • 12 of 13 pairs who qualified did compete. The exception was Simpson/Blackmer, b/c of their split.
  • All 21 ladies who qualified did compete.
  • All 18 dance couples who qualified did compete.
  • The two exceptions above were public knowledge by Dec 20, when you used the list of qualifiers for your OP in the Game thread (and noted the exceptions, of course). ;)
http://www.usfsa.org/content/2014 qualifiers.pdf
http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2014/2014_us_fs_champs/results.html
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...s-Game-Round-5&p=807323&viewfull=1#post807323
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...s-Game-Round-5&p=807333&viewfull=1#post807333

Very interesting statistics, Golden.

For the record, here is what hapened in 2014 Russian Nationals:

  1. Sasha Proklova was the 4th reserve in Ladies, as she had only scored 12 points in qualifying (very surprising, given she is one of the top Russian Juniors). Yet she was put through to Nationals in preference to the girl that had qualified 18th (Daria SUSHA, who had scored 17 points), and the 3 girls ahead of her in the reserves list.

  2. In Pairs, the couples that were 7th, 8th and 9th on the pre-qualified list were all missing. So, both reserve teams got competing.

I will quote below what I said to you in last year's thread, b/c my feelings have not changed :bow:

Well, since you are taking a trip down memory lane, I think I should do the same. ;) :biggrin:

Wow! I wasn't expecting such praise. There really is no need!

The thing is, I am not providing anything that we didn't have during the GP Game. The difference is, during the ISU competitions, the links are provided on the Results Pages. All I am doing is providing them in an alternative place.

It always winds me up that the Results Pages of national Championships do not provide any information about the competitors. And when you are trying to make predictions on skaters you are unfamiliar with, it really is invaluable having information about them.

I just thought that since I was looking up all the Bios anyway, I may as well add the links to the post while I was doing it! Like, it does not take a lot of effort - just copy on one page, and paste onto the other. It only takes a couple of seconds for each skater.

The TV schedules, on the other hand, take an awful lot more time and effort. And, I do find making them out is draining.

But I enjoy trying to help people out. The way I look at it is if I want to look something up, then chances are that at least one other person wants to look it up as well. And, what is the point of have 2 people doing exactly the same thing?

Although I am the one that is posting all this stuff in the lead up to each round of the Game, I am not actually doing that much otherwise.

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I would have quoted the whole reply, except the next line was about somebody else doing the spreadsheet, and I am doing it this year!

But I stand by the next bit of the comment - it is the scorers that are doing the hard work! :bow:

In any case, many thanks to you and to all who make the GS games happen. Even though I don't play, it is fun to keep an eye on the game threads.

I know! Although I try to avoid looking at other peoples' predictions before I make out my own, once I do, I find it very interesting to see what other people are predicting!

Although you are not playing, I am glad that you are still enjoying the Game!

CaroLiza_fan
 

guenever

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 8, 2013
Ladies
1. Wagner
2. Gold
3. Cesario
4. Edmunds
5. Nagasu
6. Chen


Men
1. Aaron
2. Brown
3. Abbott
4. Rippon
5. Farris
6. Chen

Pairs
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Knierem
3. Castelli/Tran
4. Kayne/O’Shea
5. Aaron/Settlage
6. Calalang/Sidhu

Dance
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutanis
3. Hubbel/Donohue
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. Cannuscio/McManus
6. Aldridge/Eaton
 
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slider11

Medalist
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
Men:

1. Brown
2. Rippon
3. Aaron
4. Abbott
5. Miner
6. Dornbush

Ladies:

1. Gold
2. Nagasu
3. Wagner
4. Hicks
5. Cesario
6. Edmunds

Pairs:

1. Denney/Fraizer
2. Scimeca/Knirem
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Castelli/Tran
5. Leng/Shanipir

Ice Dance:

1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Aldridge/Eaton
6. Cannuscio/McManus.
 
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