2016-17 GPF Mens FS

[YesWay]

OK, so I just saw the coverage on U.S. network TV. Nathan Chen crushed it. Hanyu, Chan, and Javi -- it was nice knowing you.

It is one thing to attempt several quads in a program. Going forward, skaters will be expected to stay on their feet as well.

Bit early to say bye to Hanyu, Chan and Javi... that's the kind of comment that's likely come back and bite you/haunt you later...!

It is one thing to attempt several quads in a program. Going forward, Nathan will need to increase his PCS and GoE's... and let's see what his quads and consistency are like when his programs are packed with the kind of difficult and high-quality transitions, choreography, jump entrances/exits etc that Hanyu, Chan, Javi, and the rest are doing...! (I note that Boyang's quads already seem to be suffering, as he works to increas his PCS...)

Nathan is a huge threat to the top players... but still a long way to go, I think...

 

[Yatagarasu]

OK, so I just saw the coverage on U.S. network TV. Nathan Chen crushed it. Hanyu, Chan, and Javi -- it was nice knowing you.
It is one thing to attempt several quads in a program. Going forward, skaters will be expected to stay on their feet as well.

Yeah, as it's expected to actually have something in your program besides the jumps

 

[gsyzf]

Bit early to say bye to Hanyu, Chan and Javi... that's the kind of comment that's likely come back and bite you/haunt you later...!

It is one thing to attempt several quads in a program. Going forward, Nathan will need to increase his PCS and GoE's... and let's see what his quads and consistency are like when his programs are packed with the kind of difficult and high-quality transitions, choreography, jump entrances/exits etc that Hanyu, Chan, Javi, and the rest are doing...! (I note that Boyang's quads already seem to be suffering, as he works to increas his PCS...)

Nathan is a huge threat to the top players... but still a long way to go, I think...

Age is not in Chan and Fernandez' favor as both will be turning 26 soon. The difference between top skaters and younger skaters is smaller than you think. As soon as the younger skater is perceived by the judges as a medal contender, the gap of goe and pcs between veteran top skaters and the younger skater becomes much smaller. That's what happened to hanyu before he won Sochi. Hanyu would have to up his bv to a similar level as Chen's planned bv to secure his win. Right now hanyu's bv is lower than Chen's.

Imo, chen is a bigger threat to the top 3 than uno and Jin because he had the least weakness among the 3. Uno and Jin have major weaknesses and are at the mercy of tech specialists(uno's jumps) and judges (Jin's pcs). Chen doesn't face these problems. If he continues to improve, he will become an even bigger threat.

 

[YesWay]

Age is not in Chan and Fernandez' favor as both will be turning 26 soon. The difference between top skaters and younger skaters is smaller than you think. As soon as the younger skater is perceived by the judges as a medal contender, the gap of goe and pcs between veteran top skaters and the younger skater becomes much smaller. That's what happened to hanyu before he won Sochi. Hanyu would have to up his bv to a similar level as Chen's planned bv to secure his win. Right now hanyu's bv is lower than Chen's.

It's not a question how how big or small the gap is, or indeed whether judges really just pluck GoE and PCS out of the air based on whether a skater is "perceived to be a medal contender" (or "reputation", "start order", "feds", etc, or any other such "theories")

It's whether Nathan can bridge the gap, and still keep his jumps stable.

Like I said, he doesn't have the transitions, difficult choroegraphy, and so on that the current top skaters have. High BV means little, if negative GoE's eat it all away, we've seen this demonstrated time and again. And the top skaters aren't going to just stand still, stop developing, and let others pass them by without a fight. Certainly Hanyu, Chan and Uno will be working to improve too. So Nathan also faces moving targets.

Like I said, he needs to build his PCS and tick the GoE boxes... or he will be at a disadvantage when skating side-by-side with, and directly compared to, those other skaters... whether he is perceived to be a medal contender or not.

And it's no simple matter to simply add extra and more difficult transitions, do more difficult choreography, improve skating skills, tick enough GoE boxes for +3's etc etc... and still have the stamina, consistency and stability to deliver all those quads and 3A's. Maybe he will succeed, maybe not. Maybe it will take time, maybe not. We will see...!

Don't get me wrong - I wish him luck, and I'll be following him with interest. I think he's the most exciting new "development" in men's skating since, well, Boyang Jin. I'm just not ready to crown him the new king...!

Imo, chen is a bigger threat to the top 3 than uno and Jin because he had the least weakness among the 3. Uno and Jin have major weaknesses and are at the mercy of tech specialists(uno's jumps) and judges (Jin's pcs). Chen doesn't face these problems. If he continues to improve, he will become an even bigger threat.

Nathan has the least weaknesses?
Nathan doesn't face these problems?
I absolutely disagree.

 

[Camillo]

Right now hanyu's bv is lower than Chen's.

Yes, at NHK and GPF Yuzu's BV was lower - 79.23 and 72.74 vs 85.65 (jumps only), but in fact his current jump BV has potential of 90.83, while Chen can't get higher BV (unless he changes his layout).

 

[gsyzf]

Nathan has the least weaknesses?
Nathan doesn't face these problems?
I absolutely disagree.

Compared to uno and Jin, chen has the least weakness because he doesn't need to rely on tech specialists' generosity to get credit for full rotation like Shoma and Jin's ss is weak compared to skaters of his age which puts him in a big disadvatage.

Never underestimate your rivals. Hanyu never underestimates his rivals.

 

[gsyzf]

Yes, at NHK and GPF Yuzu's BV was lower - 79.23 and 72.74 vs 85.65 (jumps only), but in fact his current jump BV has potential of 90.83, while Chen can't get higher BV (unless he changes his layout).

Chen's planned layout is 5 quad with 4 different quads. Hanyu would need 4 different quads and 2 axel to match chen's bv.

 

[Yatagarasu]

Chen's planned layout is 5 quad with 4 different quads. Hanyu would need 4 different quads and 2 axel to match chen's bv.

He is introducing the 4Lz next season that he is already landing so it's not like he's being static but the more important thing, for me at least here, is this - Hanyu can land 4 quads easily in his program if he did what Chen does. In other words if he emptied his program of all the other difficult things, it would be a no brainer. But his programs aren't empty and his strength goes not only to quads but to everything else. Hanyu doesn't have to match the jump BV because there is no need.

Once Nathan starts packing his programs like Hanyu does, then it'd be a different matter but will Nathan be able then to execute a clean program remains to be seen. Not to mention that nothing guarantees that he'll even be able to repeat this, now.

Writing off Hanyu, as well as Fernandez and Chan at this point, is simply laughable.

 

[YesWay]

Compared to uno and Jin, chen has the least weakness because he doesn't need to rely on tech specialists' generosity to get credit for full rotation like Shoma and Jin's ss is weak compared to skaters of his age which puts him in a big disadvatage.

Never underestimate your rivals. Hanyu never underestimates his rivals.

Underestimating? I've seen Hanyu, Chan, Jin, Uno, Fernandez and Chen in person - multiple times each, in competition and in their practice sessions. Most of them this season. And I don't think I'm underestimating anything. I've seen for myself, there are obvious gaps that Chen needs to bridge, and all I'm saying is - that's no easy task, and it remains to be seen if he can do it and if so, how quickly.

I don't subscribe to your conspiracy theories. eg. scores depend on judge or tech panel "generosity", whether they "consider a skater a medal contender" etc.

I contend that the overwhelming bulk of the skaters' scores depends on their own skating and performance skills, ability to deliver under pressure etc. Their fate is basically in their own hands.

 

[gsyzf]

Underestimating? I've seen Hanyu, Chan, Jin, Uno, Fernandez and Chen in person - multiple times each, in competition and in their practice sessions. Most of them this season. And I don't think I'm underestimating anything. I've seen for myself, there are obvious gaps that Chen needs to bridge, and all I'm saying is - that's no easy task, and it remains to be seen if he can do it and if so, how quickly.

I don't subscribe to your conspiracy theories. eg. scores depend on judge or tech panel "generosity", whether they "consider a skater a medal contender" etc.

I contend that the overwhelming bulk of the skaters' scores depends on their own skating and performance skills, ability to deliver under pressure etc. Their fate is basically in their own hands.

A skater's fate is only in their own hands if they can execute the most difficult programs with the highest quality, with no technical flaws. If s skater has technical flaws like under-rotation, wrong edge or other weaknesses, you will always be subjected to tech panel and judges' discretion. If the panel is lenient, your flaw may be overlooked and if the panel is strict, they will deduct points from you. It's a judged sport. A lot is in judges and tech panel's hand, unless you can leave them with no doubt.

 

[YesWay]

A skater's fate is only in their own hands if they can execute the most difficult programs with the highest quality, with no technical flaws. If s skater has technical flaws like under-rotation, wrong edge or other weaknesses, you will always be subjected to tech panel and judges' discretion. If the panel is lenient, your flaw may be overlooked and if the panel is strict, they will deduct points from you. It's a judged sport. A lot is in judges and tech panel's hand, unless you can leave them with no doubt.

So? What's your point?

Do think Chen is going to get a gold medal, at every competition he enters from now on, whenever the tech panel is "strict"?
Without making any improvements to his skills or programs?

Of course, if such a prediction doesn't comes true, I guess you will just say judges were "generous" to the other skaters but not Chen, or "tech panel wasn't strict enough". Let's add those to the list of available excuses, like "skated in early group", "reputation bonus", "politics", "strong fed", etc etc -_-

 

[Mathman]

I think we are seeing new day in men's figure skating. Whoever land the most quads, wins. Things like skating skills and choreography will become less and less relevant. Patrick Chan has better transitions than anyone. But he landed only two quads and finished fifth. Yuzuru Hanyu is the most complete skater in the history of the sport, but he landed only three quads in the LP and finished third in that segment.

Nathan Chen had the lowest PCS of anyone in the top five, yet he finished ahead of all of them. Give Hanyu, Chan and Fernandez all straight 10s in every PCS category, and they still finish behind Chen. Land those quads, gentlemen! The rest is just window dressing, point-wise. :yes:

 

[Yatagarasu]

I think we are seeing new day in men's figure skating. Whoever land the most quads, wins.

False because Nathan obviously did not win.

Things like skating skills and choreography will become less and less relevant.

False again because though the top men are very close, people like Nathan are lagging and it makes all the difference. If you remove the choreography and everything else, then you are allowing more room for other skaters to up their jump BV too. You seem to be ignoring that little fact.

Patrick Chan has better transitions than anyone.

False again. It is Yuzuru Hanyu who has the best transitions than anyone else, without a doubt, in both variety, number and difficulty.

Yuzuru Hanyu is the most complete skater in the history of the sport, but he landed only three quads in the LP and finished third in that segment.

And won overall, which is what counts. He accomplished this thanks to both his superior SP and his superior PCS. This is actually the proof that an overall better skater can win even with a mistake.

Nathan Chen had the lowest PCS of anyone in the top five, yet he finished ahead of all of them.

In the FS. Overall Hanyu won. You know, again, the bit that actually counts, no matter how much you may not want it to.

Give Hanyu, Chan and Fernandez all straight 10s in every PCS category, and they still finish behind Chen.

Obviously not because well ... Yuzuru Hanyu won.

Land those quads, gentlemen! The rest is just window dressing, point-wise. :yes:

No, not really but keep wishing. Still won't make your fave number one, especially if he couldn't even accomplish it when none of the top three men were clean.

 

[xibsuarz]

Patrick Chan has better transitions than anyone.

He only landed one But had he been able to land that 4T+3T in the long, or even not popping that second one, he would have been able to at least hang on to 4th.

I still think a complete skater on a good day will win over a skater who focuses only on jumps, even if they have a great day, thanks to PCS and GOEs. But the quads are the fastest, most efficient way to get the medals for the new guys. Simply because there is no limit to TES, while there is one for PCS. The difference between 8s and 10s in PCS can be covered with a well executed 4F. So, while the skaters who focus on the TES do have to work on other areas in order to get the PCS, the quads are what get them on the map. And even if the have the best SS in the world, a first-year senior won't get higher PCS than veterans like Chan, Hanyu, Fernandez, etc. So I understand why they focus on the quads, get them stable, try to show the judges they are somewhat consistent and once they are more established as "top skaters", they can work on the rest.

 

[gsyzf]

So? What's your point?

Do think Chen is going to get a gold medal, at every competition he enters from now on, whenever the tech panel is "strict"?
Without making any improvements to his skills or programs?

Of course, if such a prediction doesn't comes true, I guess you will just say judges were "generous" to the other skaters but not Chen, or "tech panel wasn't strict enough". Let's add those to the list of available excuses, like "skated in early group", "reputation bonus", "politics", "strong fed", etc etc -_-

My point is

1. the gap between the veterans and younger skaters isn't as big as you think as soon as the younger skater is perceived as a medal contender. Uno isn't much better than chen, yet he is gettting similar goe and pcs as hanyu, Fernandez and Chan. The current trend of judging shows more and more emphasis is on quads and bv, the number of quads, the number of different quads. That's the reality.

2. Skaters with least weakness is less subject to judges and tech specialists' mercy.

3. Academic scholars have studied the effect of reputation, skate order, bloc judging, vote trading, etc and they found the effects statistically significant. These factors do play significant impact on the results even if you don't want to admit it. Otherwise scholars wouldn't bother spending their time on these research.

 

[YesWay]

1. the gap between the veterans and younger skaters isn't as big as you think as soon as the younger skater is perceived as a medal contender.

*bangs head against wall*

We are back to square one. I regret wasting my time on this thread.

Uno isn't much better than chen, yet he is gettting similar goe and pcs as hanyu, Fernandez and Chan.

And you can explain exactly how "Uno isn't much better than Chen"? For each component? With reference to each and every PCS criterion?

I won't hold my breath waiting for that.

The current trend of judging shows more and more emphasis is on quads and bv, the number of quads, the number of different quads. That's the reality.

Riiiight. In your reality...

If there are "trends", they are set by the skaters, who do whatever they have to, to earn more points.
The judges simply award points according to the rules, GoE bullet points, PCS criteria etc.

Skaters do more quads, increase BV, etc... if done clean, they get more points.
That is not a "trend" in judging. That's the rules.

2. Skaters with least weakness is less subject to judges and tech specialists' mercy.

Judges and tech specialists do their jobs. It isn't a question of being "merciful" or not.

3. Academic scholars have studied the effect of reputation, skate order, bloc judging, vote trading, etc and they found the effects statistically significant. These factors do play significant impact on the results even if you don't want to admit it. Otherwise scholars wouldn't bother spending their time on these research.

OK... show me the papers published by these "academic scholars", their credentials, and which reputable academic institutions they belong to.

Again, I am not going to hold my breath waiting for that.

 

[lavender]

I really dreaded watching this competition. I put it off last week because I knew the results but I finally decided to watch yesterday. I couldn't wait until it was over. Did the top 3 skaters decide to have dinner together and eat something bad. Did they invite Adam. I so really wanted to see a good skate by Patrick and Adam because they have 2 of my favorite programs this season. I also wanted to see a good outing with Javier and Hanyu (his lp program is growing on me). All I can say to myself is worlds will be different for the top 3 and hopefully for my U.S. favs Adam/Jason. Think positive.

 

[Mathman]

OK... show me the papers published by these "academic scholars", their credentials, and which reputable academic institutions they belong to.

You can find quite a few just by searching on Google for subjects like "statistics: figure skating judging." If you see a pdf that sounds scholarly, that's probably relevant. Better, you can do a subject search on statistical journals.

This used be a favorite topic for statisticians in the 6.0 era. The CoP with anonymous judging provided a challenge because first you have to use sophistical techniques to tease the appropriate data out of the protocols. Figure skating judging, especially with regard to national bias, bloc voting, etc., is a semi-popular field for professors to find dissertation topics for their PhD students.

No, not really but keep wishing. Still won't make your fave number one,...

Did Michelle Kwan skate in this event?

 

[gsyzf]

OK... show me the papers published by these "academic scholars", their credentials, and which reputable academic institutions they belong to.

Again, I am not going to hold my breath waiting for that.

You can google search or use google scholar to find academic papers that study bloc judging, vote trading, nationalistic bias. The evidence is there. It became more challenging to do when ISU made judging anonymous. But now with the removal of anonymous judging, we might see more research on judging bias again.

The question isn't about whether the judging is based (it's biased), but whether the judging system/mechanism can minimize the bias and be as fair as possible. Some times the bias changes the result and some times it isn't significant to change the result. There is no need to deny it.

Here are some of the more recent articles.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9134.2006.00092.x/full
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/tast.2009.0026
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1527002512441479

 

[gsyzf]

Writing off Hanyu, as well as Fernandez and Chan at this point, is simply laughable.

Age is not in Fernandez and Chan's favor. If you look at all the olympic medalists in the past 20 years, only Plushenko medaled at the age of 27. Plushenko only did 2 quads in total and had been consistent for a long time. Now men are attempting 5-6 quads in a competition, it will be even more difficult to deliver at the next olympics (If they couldn't deliver in Sochi when they were at their physical peak, then it's even less likely they will deliver in 2018 when they have past their peak and attempt even more difficult programs.) Hanyu is the only one among the top 3 that has a realistic chance to still medal at the next olympics because he is still relatively young and will peak in the next 1-2 years. But it won't be easy for him to win because the requirement to win again is a lot higher. He basically needs to execute the most difficult program (a lot more difficult than his rivals' programs) flawlessly to have a chance to win. Judges want to give the gold to someone else if they have a choice. They don't want the same skater to get gold twice. (Plushenko had 4-5 points higher BV than Lycasek, didn't make any major mistakes and still lost in 2010.) Skaters of Hanyu's generation and younger will be his challengers. Hanyu actually faces a lot of rivals, not just one person. (by the time of next olympics, you will see at least half a dozen skaters attempt 5 quads.) Unless Pyeongchang is a repeat of sochi, someone (not sure how many) will deliver. It's a lot tougher for Hanyu to win in 2018 than many people think. This may sound crazy. But Hanyu really needs to execute the most difficult program ever (much more difficult than his rivals' programs) flawlessly to have any chance to win in 2018.