2016 Cup of China Data Analysis - Men

[4everchan]

Boyang's Lz, 3As and Flips were all textbook, he had a lot of flow out of his 3Lz-3T combo, I remember it was better than Han's. The Euro guys were remarking his jump technique is impeccable. So the total GOE is puzzling, as I remember he had transitions going in and out too, for a few jumps.

not his 4lz... that wasn't great today. the 3A combo wasn't IMHO the best I have seen... the 3lz-3t was DIVINE. I agree.

of course, the overall GOE is impacted by the minus 4 for the fall. It is also impacted by the fact that there are perhaps some other quads that didn't receive much +++ like the Salchow and the 4t-2t.

So if on half of the jump passes you get negative (fall) and neutral GOE and those are your big jumps, then of course the GOE points will be lower.

 

[ancientpeas]

Hard work

Hey Geek on Ice, with that number of thumbs up you are in Hanyu fan club thread territory. :thumbsup:

 

[ancientpeas]

I actually hate the lack of, at least it seems, structure in the GOE marks in general. To me, if you put your hand down on a jump it's a negative GOE. If you stumble around on the landing I'd give you a negative GOE. Good flow out should get you a positive GOE unless you look like a flailing bird in the air.

Spins that travel, spins that are slow, spins that have ugly positions should never get a positive GOE. I'd probably be a hard GOE marker because I rarely see anything that makes me think a plus 3 is warranted and I'd never give anything but a negative 3 if you fell (any part of you but your feet and or hand on the ice).

 

[Geek On Ice]

Agre 200% on SS remark, Han Yan and Michal are great! Especially Han Yan, I can't understand why he doesn't get higher marks on SS, he's clearly one of the best in buissness in that aspect!

Aren't they great? I LOVE them both, along w/ Mura, of course!
Their 3A is TOP 3 favorite of mine!! - Mura's Height :luv17:, Han Yan's Distance :luv17: and Michal's Swish!! :luv17:

AND... these 3 beautiful skaters all have this terrible habit to pop a jump...

 

[qwertyskates]

not his 4lz... that wasn't great today. the 3A combo wasn't IMHO the best I have seen... the 3lz-3t was DIVINE. I agree.

of course, the overall GOE is impacted by the minus 4 for the fall. It is also impacted by the fact that there are perhaps some other quads that didn't receive much +++ like the Salchow and the 4t-2t.

So if on half of the jump passes you get negative (fall) and neutral GOE and those are your big jumps, then of course the GOE points will be lower.

Ah, then Patrick's +GOE should have been similarly affected by the 4S fall too, but he's definitely suffered less than Boyang. Boyang's massive BV vs +GOE as a % is one of the worst in this COC. Maybe GOI might crank it out. I think they really don't want Boyang in GPF, perhaps in favour of Nathan.

 

[Geek On Ice]

Will you be doing a break down for Transitions/Crossovers too, if you have time? That was quite helpful to understand scores (and gave a reason to be mad at some judges )

I'm glad you enjoyed it! But... part of me regrets doing that actually... Maybe it was not fair to Adam. I'm not an expert and I could be wrong about the judges' concept on transitions, right? Like, I counted turns but I didn't account for the difficulty of each turns, so judges may appreciate fewer but more difficult ones etc. (Having said that, I still think he does way too many "stroking"... :think So I am learning more right now! I may still do it though, just for my personal interest/learning tool and if I do, I'll share it here (but NOT attached to the original analysis post)! :agree:

 

[qwertyskates]

Yes, I'm sure of it.

Jin Boyang's jumps +GOE/BV % is the lowest with the exception of the worst performers like Samohin. It's even lower than Kovtun's! Yet it's clear that he didn't perform his jumps worse than those who wobbled and popped and fell.

 

[Alexz]

Oh... Such a terrific job! I would love to see the same break down analysis for Ladies. *respect*

 

[qwertyskates]

I'm glad you enjoyed it! But... part of me regrets doing that actually... Maybe it was not fair to Adam.

Please don't be too shy about this, few of us are experts but we're all free to give opinions here. The opinions backed up by facts are even better. :agree: I wish you would offer your own views like you did for GP France. There will always be those who agree and those who disagree, but do post away!


The way you're breaking down into tables made a lot of facts clearer to see, eg. to me Jin received very low +GOE for his jumps, worse when it's shown as % of BV of jumps. If you ever want to do COs and TRs counts, it'd be wonderful!!


So many of us appreciate your stats and analyses!

 

[Geek On Ice]

Well, I'm so so happy that you guys are enjoying the analysis & thank you for your kind words!

There are so many interesting posts that I want to join the discussion and I also wanted to write my thoughts on FS too... But first, a little nap before the gala!

p.s. I sure plan to do this again for NHK Trophy too!
However, just to let you know, it may be a little later because I'm having a "Let's Watch NHK Trophy Together" party at a friend's house.
(TBH... I'm kind of glad we are watching the taped ones, because then I get to watch live streaming alone with paying 100% attention to skaters!! )

 

[Tavi...]

So thinking more about these charts:

I tend to be someone who looks at protocols after every competition. Sometimes it's because I think someone was over or undermarked, or to separate out the elements of a huge or very low score. But useful as they are, the data can be overwhelming if you're trying to compare skaters.

As I said above, the reason I like these charts is because they give a big picture / judges' relative rankings of skaters on groups of elements, and because they really do make it easier to look at PCS.

One of the things we often complain about with PCS is that judges tend to use SS as a proxy for all the other components. And while that may be true for an individual judge, looking at these composite scores, ranked, shows that as a group, the judges do seem to see the same things we see.

For example, in the SP, Boyang's components ranked 5, 4,2,2,4 and in the FS they ranked 4,3,3,2,3. So even though we may think the actual raw numbers should be higher or lower, we can see that on average, the judges do recognize that he's more than just a jumping bean.

Similarly, we can see that in the FS the judges recognize that Sergei (ranked 3, 7, 2, 5, 2) has good skating and performance skills relative to the field, but he ranks much lower in transitions and choreography. Which really is about how I personally would sum him up: nice edges and flow, obviously into performing, but relatively empty program without much real choreo or many transitions.

With Max (6, 4, 5, 2, 6 in FS ) we kind of see the opposite. He's ranked average (not at the bottom) in skating skills, performance, and interpretation, but the judges do like the program and recognize that he has transitions.

Another thing that's easy to see with the BV groupings is when guys are losing levels on spins and in the step sequences. You may not know whether someone's st sq is a Level 2 or 3, but you know it's not level 4; with spins, you can't necessarily see which spins got dinged for levels, but you can always look at the protocol for that.

With jump GOE in particular, I think it's really important to remember that a fall (or falls) impacts the total.

For example, Boyang's net overall FS GOE (4.40, 1.52 for jumps) is quite low, but he lost a ton of points on a fall /< on the 4T (-4 GOE, -1 fall, -3.8 BV for the <). In fact, without the fall, his GOE would have been a respectable 8.40 total (5.52 jumps), ranking him third in both categories, and we can clearly see that the combined fall /< on the 4T was the reason he fell to second place.

Without the fall, his total score would have been 278.54 + 5 = 283.54; without the < it would have been 278.54 + 3.8 = 282.34. So if he had fallen but not < the 4T, or vice versa, he would have won. Can someone argue he lost for other reasons (e.g., that Patrick was overscored in the SP)? Sure, but this is a different way to look at it.

Finally, we can see that even though Boyang's spin and st sq GOE in FS is about half of Patrick's, relative to the field he ranks 6 in both categories. So overall, I'd say the judges recognize his talent and his improvement over last year, but are saying that he's not executing at the level of Patrick yet. Which for me is accurate.

In sum, Geek's analysis may not tell us whether a skater was gifted GOE / PCS on a particular element / in a certain category, but I find the data as presented really thought provoking - thank you Geek!

 

[qwertyskates]

Boyang had a fall in FS but so did Patrick, Michal and Samohin, and Michal popped a lot of jumps, yet his total +GOE for jumps is still much higher than Boyang's.

 

[Tavi...]

Boyang had a fall in FS but so did Patrick, Michal and Samohin, and Michal popped a lot of jumps, yet his total +GOE for jumps is still much higher than Boyang's.

Well but you can't just look at the total GOE as a lump without examining it. If you look at the protocols, you'll see that while Samohin did get +GOE on his popped jumps he got -4 and -3.09 on his falls, so overall he had net negative GOE. Brezina got + .06 GOE for the first popped jump, 0 for the second, and -.20 for the third but got moderate +GOE on his other elements. Chan got -4 GOE for the fall. I can't say whether Jin was under marked and/ or the others were over marked. But IMO, to reach that conclusion, you really have to look at each element as skated and compare it to the GOE awarded.

 

[4everchan]

you dont understand what I wrote here... both skaters lost 4 points GOE on that fall. but Patrick had quality everywhere else while Jin has a few stiff landings that probably didn't produce positive GOE. So, when you have a minus 4, you need to balance with massive positive GOE to get a surplus... neutral or loswer positive GOE will only compensate for the fall... Patrick's GOE on his hardest jumps compensated for the lost GOE and then his simpler jumps were also rewarded. Boyang's 4lz and 4s and his 4t-2t where not massively impressive and didn't compensate ENOUGH to overcome the 4 point deficit the fall gave him.

that's what i mean.

Ah, then Patrick's +GOE should have been similarly affected by the 4S fall too, but he's definitely suffered less than Boyang. Boyang's massive BV vs +GOE as a % is one of the worst in this COC. Maybe GOI might crank it out. I think they really don't want Boyang in GPF, perhaps in favour of Nathan.

 

[Yatagarasu]

Now, I am not interested to read once again that there was a hand down or a lack of difficult entry or exit or tano etc.... I have seen your several posts about this. You can take it to the judges if you disagree...

Of course you're not. Why would you talk about particulars that would eat away from Patrick's score faster than you can blink. When you do look at those things it's very easy to see how Patrick is over-scored in the GOEs and how that massive gap of 1.18 points suddenly gets lost, allowing Boyang to claim his deserved win and actually have a chance of GPF.

And it's very easy to see why so many are frustrated when easier, poorer jumps get higher GOEs just for being landed if you're called so and so, while those who are better, with more complex transitions and better execution are punished. Not just here. Yes, I've heard the same excuses you make here, made before. The names just change. Anyway, I'm done and I will leave you to your "objective analysis".

 

[4everchan]

Of course you're not. Why would you talk about particulars that would eat away from Patrick's score faster than you can blink. When you do look at those things it's very easy to see how Patrick is over-scored in the GOEs and how that massive gap of 1.18 points suddenly gets lost, allowing Boyang to claim his deserved win and actually have a chance of GPF.

And it's very easy to see why so many are frustrated when easier, poorer jumps get higher GOEs just for being landed if you're called so and so, while those who are better, with more complex transitions and better execution are punished. Not just here. Yes, I've heard the same excuses you make here, made before. The names just change. Anyway, I'm done and I will leave you to your "objective analysis".

i haven't said that Patrick deserved higher scores on every element nor that he shouldn't be penalized for mistakes. I will repeat one last time.

My approach is to look at what the judges have given to try to explain WHY things were done that way.

Your approach is to look at what the judges have given and argue that they are wrong and should have done it another way.

We will never agree because we have different ways to deal with the data. I work with the data that is measurable here : the judges points. You work with your own data : the points you think skaters should get... are you a professional judge? with lots of experience, with certification? Were you at the arena? I remain humble with scoring because I am just a fan, not an expert.

According to what I have read from your posts :
At Skate Canada, Patrick was overscored and shouldn't have won. (Even if Yuzu invented the new landing on the knee deal... now talk about propping someone up in the SP.... )
At Cup of China, Patrick was overscored and shouldn't have won... (Even if he skated a near flawless programs and matched Boyang's TES. )


Some of you argue that his GOE is too high... Some argue that he was held up in the SP. Some argue that Jin is underscored... Some argue that the Canadian federation is so powerful that it decides that Jin won't go to GPF and makes sure that Patrick will win CoC ahead of Jin ... :whack:

ALL of these supposed "arguments" are personal interpretations.

I look at what the judges perceive and note. Then I try to understand how they saw it. This is why I appreciate this thread because it gives us the judges tendencies. I have learned from attending a live competition in the fall that there is a massive difference between live and streaming. So, I have decided then that I would look at the scores given rather than assign scores I would want to give.

We all have our favourites. Patrick is one of mine. Han is too. Denis. Many others. But when the judges or tech panel say : NOPE... Patrick you only get a step sequence level 3 on your footwork... i am not going to make a scene because Patrick, if anyone should get a level 4... i accept it and try to see if he is missing turns, etc...

I think I have been clear without being condescending. ... another difference between my approach and that of some others

 

[qwertyskates]

you dont understand what I wrote here... both skaters lost 4 points GOE on that fall. but Patrick had quality everywhere else while Jin has a few stiff landings that probably didn't produce positive GOE. So, when you have a minus 4, you need to balance with massive positive GOE to get a surplus... neutral or loswer positive GOE will only compensate for the fall... Patrick's GOE on his hardest jumps compensated for the lost GOE and then his simpler jumps were also rewarded. Boyang's 4lz and 4s and his 4t-2t where not massively impressive and didn't compensate ENOUGH to overcome the 4 point deficit the fall gave him.

that's what i mean.

We just have to agree to disagree. I went back to look at Boyang's jumps again. I concur with the Eurosport guys that he had some good jumps, definitely much better than the popped jumps of the others including Ross, Brezina, Han, Kovtun, who popped their jumps with bad landings, etc. Jin didn't UR or pop his jumps, except for the 4T UR and fall, the only other flaw is the hands down 4Lz, yet his overall +GOE for jumps is lower than theirs. Patrick had a fall on 4S, so not clean either. Of all the men, except for Samohin, Boyang had the worst scores for +GOE for the number of jumps performed at a much higher level of difficulty, but in fact, he had some really good jumps eg 3A, 3A combo, 3Lz combo, etc. all under-credited. Brezina got +GOE for a popped 2S in comparison.

 

[4everchan]

We just have to agree to disagree. I went back to look at Boyang's jumps again. I concur with the Eurosport guys that he had some good jumps, definitely much better than the popped jumps of the others including Ross, Brezina, Han, Kovtun, who popped their jumps with bad landings, etc. Jin didn't UR or pop his jumps, except for the 4T UR and fall, the only other flaw is the hands down 4Lz, yet his overall +GOE for jumps is lower than theirs. Patrick had a fall on 4S, so not clean either. Of all the men, except for Samohin, Boyang had the worst scores for +GOE for the number of jumps performed at a much higher level of difficulty, but in fact, he had some really good jumps eg 3A, 3A combo, 3Lz combo, etc. all under-credited. Brezina got +GOE for a popped 2S in comparison.

My understanding of Boyang's GOE comes from seeing the protocols

A hand down on the 4Lz only brought -0.37 of GOE... not bad right? I heard that other skaters should get -2 for such problems... so IMHO I think that's nice...
His best jump yesterday IMHO the 4S, the 3Lz-3T, the second 3A and the 3F : for all of these he got and average of + 1 and +2 ... none of these for me were WOWOWOWOWOOWOWOW like his 4Lz can get me going... so +2 is pretty good. these all brought positive GOE... let's look at how much : 1.43 +0.7+1.43+.0.9 = 4.46

So... after 6 passes he gets -4.37 for the fall and the hand down
he gets 4.46 for the other jumps which PERSONALLY I thought were +1 or +2 .... and the judges also thought that. (other scores given +3 or 0 were not counted)

Which brings Boyang to +0.09

two more passes... the 4t-2t, he fought for it... I would have given 0... judges gave 0.57.... ranging from one -1 to one +2 but most judges gave 0 or 1.

the 3A combo.... that one is tricky. It was so close to the board that personally, I didn't like it. It made me feel awkward. Also, it's very rare for me to enjoy these half loop combos. Boyang's is quite good compared to most but it's not as flowing as someone like Yuzuru. I wasn't too sure what I'd give him there... the 3A was really good... the rest was okay... maybe + 1??? Judges gave him from 0 to +2. 0.86 in GOE here....

so after adding those together, I get 1.52

Does this seem low? Perhaps if you look at the overall picture. Perhaps when considering that Boyang is an exciting jumper with incredible level of difficulty. However, if the judges don't think he reaches the bullets to get higher GOE and on top of that, when there are a few clear stiff landings, a hand down and a fall... what do you expect?

An easier jump can get positive GOE if it's nicely executed. Why is that a problem? GOE doesn't assess the number of rotations... The tech panel does that.

When you look at Patrick's jumps... he loses right away 4 points with his 4S. The other 7 passes all received positive GOE. I am no expert so I won't tally down the GOE bullets for each jump. All I can say is that when I looked at the program I felt that the passes were well interwoven with the music, that he had nice air position and flow out of the jumps ( he fought a bit on the 4T) His triple axels were nice and easy (Kurt Browning's words) the easier jumps at the end were textbook. The loop for instance is just such a highlight within the choreography. Can you blame the judges for giving positive GOEs to these jumps? Not really. BTW most of the scores are +1 or +2... it's not like he was given massive +3 all over the place for all his jumps.

So, if you wish to go further, taking all the jumps you think were underscored in Boyang's case, go ahead. I am not an expert and will not try to see if all GOE positive bullet points were met for higher than the +1 and +2 he got on the jumps that were clearly well landed. However, I'd be surprised you would find +3 there for many of these passes.

 

[ancientpeas]

Explaination # 432

You are very loquacious today, my friend. I'm going to suggest the cut and paste approach to your rebuttals from now on so you can spend your time on less mundane things. Like adding your list of 38.

 

[4everchan]

LOL... i was called out about the 38 list.... apparently, not allowed to go 39...

I have to share

or

Don't be so greedy

But you are correct, I am done with trying to shed light on how things "could" be seen by others, especially since well, apparently how I understand things is not valid I am just texting a bunch of friends now and will hit the town.... my list out of figure skating is way above 38 and i count on expanding it MUAHAHA

You are very loquacious today, my friend. I'm going to suggest the cut and paste approach to your rebuttals from now on so you can spend your time on less mundane things. Like adding your list of 38.