Pavel is clearly ready for Seniors, and in my opinion, he's the strongest Junior partner since Katsalapov's transition to Seniors. Technically he's much stronger than Khaliavin, Mozgov or Bukin ever were, and stronger than Ruslan was during his transition. But with all my love to Alla, they will not be ready to challenge top 4 Russian teams. Maybe Zahorski/Guerreiro, but not higher.
I think that's a pretty plausible assessment based on what we've seen so far. L&D have a very good shot of getting two non-host spots on the GP. That is a great nod to them and good for Russian dance, but also means they will likely start off in one or two tough locations. On the JGP, they have competed 7/8 times in Europe. The senior GP can require a lot more travel, and when you are a young team just moving up, there's a good chance you wind up in a deep country & someone else's backyard. So it will probably be a year for learning & proving themselves.
But in the long run, that can be good. Better to start off with realistic expectations and put in the work it takes to get stronger.
On the plus side, the GP is now deep enough with 10 competitors that talented junior teams can get a better perspective on where they fit without automatically dropping to the bottom or just above the host teams.
On behalf of the junior teams moving up, I do think it's worth noting that their BV will go up this season. The seniors had extra elements added this year so there is potential for these top three junior teams to actually outscore teams they are aligned with on the current SB list. Typically, scores really drop when you debut as a senior. (And, of course, that's true for early-season performances of all programs for all teams). But these top three junior teams are the cream of the crop. I think they're worth watching.
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