2017 NHK Trophy: GP Predictions Game Round 4

[CaroLiza_fan]

Ladies was hard, because (apart from one whose style of skating I don’t like, but who scores very well) I like them all.

I would have loved to put Carolina for the win again, like I did in Russia. But, I decided to be realistic this time. So, Zhenya it was. And then Satoko completing the podium.

After this, I went for my 2 favourites from the remaining skaters – Mirai and Rika. Given my Crazy Predictions story, you would have thought that I would have put Rika as high as possible, and I was going to put her in 4th. But, I have a soft spot for Mirai, and I like it when she proves all the doubters wrong. So, I opted for her instead.

As with the Men in China, any of the Ladies could make it into the Top 5. So, I felt really bad for putting, well, all of the remaining skaters outside my scoring positions. But, needs must.

I did dither for a while over Alaine or Mariah for my alternate. But, I went for Alaine in the end. She needs a good showing after the disaster that was Skate Canada.

With the Men, I knew who my Top 4 were going to be as soon as I saw the entries. But, I was really stuck for an order for the rest.

So, I decided to go with my heart and have Voronov completing my Top 5. Team Silver Foxes! I know, Rippon should have been in my Top 5, but I put him as my alternate instead.

With the rest, I just put them into an order that seemed sensible. It did pain me to put the 2 remaining Japanese at the bottom. But, the fact of the matter is that their PB’s are lower than the rest (yes, I had to resort to checking the PB’s, as I hadn’t a clue where to slot these two in).

For Ice Dance, I knew who I was putting in my Top 4. I would have loved to put Penny and Nick on the podium, but I do think the partnerships I did choose were more likely.

For the rest, I originally put the Danish partnership (boo, hiss to the Danish government for not letting Laurence get citizenship) in 5th. But then I changed my mind, and decided to play it safe with Sinitsina / Katsalapov.

That said, I do think that most of the remaining partnerships have a shot of getting into the Top 6. So, it could be an exciting competition over the mid-field positions.

CaroLiza_fan


NHK TROPHY

Ladies

1. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA, RUS
2. Carolina KOSTNER, ITA
3. Satoko MIYAHARA, JPN
4. Mirai NAGASU, USA
5. Rika HONGO, JPN

Just for fun:
6. Alaine CHARTRAND, CAN
7. Mariah BELL, USA
8. Yuna SHIRAIWA, JPN
9. Soyoun PARK, KOR
10. Polina TSURSKAYA, RUS
11. Alena LEONOVA, RUS
12. Nicole RAJICOVA, SVK


Men

1. Yuzuru HANYU, JPN
2. Nam NGUYEN, CAN
3. Dmitri ALIEV, RUS
4. Jason BROWN, USA
5. Sergei VORONOV, RUS

Just for fun:
6. Adam RIPPON, USA
7. Alexei BYCHENKO, ISR
8. Michal BREZINA, CZE
9. Deniss VASILJEVS, LAT
10. Keegan MESSING, CAN
11. Kazuki TOMONO, JPN
12. Hiroaki SATO, JPN


Ice Dance

1. Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR, CAN
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE, USA
3. Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE, ITA
4. Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND, GBR
5. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV, RUS

Just for fun:
6. Laurence FOURNIER BEAUDRY / Nikolaj SORENSEN, DEN
7. Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC, FRA
8. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED, JPN
9. Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN, UKR
10. Misato KOMATSUBARA / Timothy KOLETO, JPN

 

[nikki51]

MEN
1. Yuzuru HANYU
2. Jason BROWN
3. Adam RIPPON
4. Dmitri ALIEV
5. Sergei VORONOV
6. Nam NGUYEN

LADIES
1. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
2. Satoko MIYAHARA
3. Carolina KOSTNER
4. Polina TSURSKAYA
5. Rika HONGO
6. Mirai NAGASU

PAIRS
1. Wenjing SUI/Cong HAN
2. Ksenia STOLBOVA/Fedor KLIMOV
3. Julianne SEGUIN/Charlie BILODEAU
4. Kristina ASTAKHOVA/Alexei ROGONOV
5. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM/Chris KNIERIM
6. Miriam ZIEGLER/Severin KIEFER

ICE DANCE
1. Tessa VIRTUE/Scott MOIR
2. Madison HUBBELL/Zachary DONOHUE
3. Anna CAPPELLINI/Luca LANOTTE
4. Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND
5. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV
6. Kana MURAMOTO / Chris REED

 

[Tastetherainbow]

So Hanyu withdrew... so I'm assuming our #6 in our predictions will be counted?

 

[jenaj]

Ladies
1. Medvedeva
2. Miyahara
3. Nagasu
4. Tsurskaya
5. Kostner
6. Bell

Men--without Hanyu, if reports are correct.
1. Voronov
2. Brown
3. Rippon
4.Aliev
5. Nguyen
6. Vasiljevs

Dance
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Hubbell/Donohue
3. Cappelini/Lanotte
4. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
5. Coomes/Buckland

Pairs
1. Sui/Han
2.STOLBOVA/ KLIMOV
3.ASTAKHOVA/ROGONOV
4. SEGUIN/BILODEAU
5. SCIMECA/KNIERIM
6. ZIEGLER/KIEFER

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

So Hanyu withdrew... so I'm assuming our #6 in our predictions will be counted?

EH????!!!!

He was still listed when I was in the Entries / Results Page an hour ago.

EDIT: But he's listed as withdrawn now. Must have been a very late decision (or else the organisers are slow at updating it).​

If it's right that he withdrew, then yeah, the 6th position will count. That's why we encourage people to include at least one alternate. :agree:

Except I play extra safe!

CaroLiza_fan

 

[Antyv]

Men (New prediction without Hanyu)

1. Jason BROWN
2. Sergei VORONOV
3. Adam RIPPON
4. Dmitri ALIEV
5. Michal BREZINA
6. Nam NGUYEN

 

[corynna]

New predictions for Men (removing Hanyu) and Ice Dance (adding Cooms/Buckland). I hope it is ok, as the Short programs didn't start yet for these. Pairs and Ladies remain in my previous post.

Ice Dance:
ICE DANCE:
1. Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE
4. Penny COOMES/Nicholas BUCKLAND
5. Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV
6. Laurence FOURNIER BEAUDRY / Nikolaj SORENSEN

MEN:
1. Jason BROWN
2. Adam RIPPON
3. Sergei VORONOV
4. Dmitri ALIEV
5. Michal BREZINA
6. Nam NGUYEN

 

[Marius]

I'm reposting my Men Prediction
MEN:
1. Adam RIPPON
2. Sergei VORONOV
3. Jason BROWN
4. Dmitri ALIEV
5. Deniss VASILJEVS
-6. Nam NGUYEN

 

[Icebethy]

Hoping I am in time but updated men's because of Hanyu:


1. Jason Brown
2. Adam Rippon
3. Sergei Voronov
4. Alexei Bychenko
5. Keegan MESSING
6. Dmitri ALIEV

 

[college pat]

due to yuzuru pull out mine is blown but

i will redo just for fun the men

1) jason brown
2) adman rippon
3) dmitriv aliev
4) nam nguyen
5) deniss vasiljev
6) sergei voronov
but than i am terrible at this

 

[LadyB]

Placeholder

Men
1. Jason Brown (I might regret this. )

You might not, under the circumstances!

 

[LadyB]

Men--without Hanyu, if reports are correct.
1. Voronov

Bless!!! :2thumbs:

 

[NoNameFace]

You might not, under the circumstances!

I got Jason as 2nd and picked 6th and 7th places just in case, so...

the only regretful thing is that Yuzuru had to withdrawn - it's always a loss for the competition, especially NHK which is a place so associated with Yuzuru. But it also shows his great maturity and taking care of himself to get best chance at Olympics. The beauty, impact of his skating won't disappear just because he won't compete there and in GPF. Wishing his all the best and a recovery in a pace designed the best for him.

 

[LadyB]

REPOST!

Men:

1. Jason Brown
2. Dmitri Aliev
3. Sergei Voronov
4. Adam Rippon
5. Michal Brezina
6. Deniss Vasiljevs

 

[Mrs. P]

You might not, under the circumstances!

I might regret it cause given the voodoo of this event I can easily see Jason finish 8th just as likely as 1st, LOL. Too many bad memories of last year's NHK, not to mention Yuzu's freak injury here.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

So do all of our men's predictions move up a spot? Like if I had Jason as second with Yuzu in first then now I'm predicting Jason in first?
I went to bed and woke up to his withdrawal. But it was too late to change.

 

[xibsuarz]

So do all of our men's predictions move up a spot? Like if I had Jason as second with Yuzu in first then now I'm predicting Jason in first?
I went to bed and woke up to his withdrawal. But it was too late to change.

If I understood correctly yes :yes: That's why it's best for you to make a 6-skater prediction, in case one of them withdraws at the last minute (like Yuzu did), your predictions move up

 

[[email protected]]

If I understood correctly yes :yes: That's why it's best for you to make a 6-skater prediction, in case one of them withdraws at the last minute (like Yuzu did), your predictions move up

This also makes the life of scorers tougher. I would have to spend about 30% more time making the adjustments to the lists or will have to make formulas much more difficult to single out Hanyu. Luckily with ladies that I going to score nothing like has happened.

SP placements are obvious on the one hand: Medvedeva leading and Kostner is second. On the other hand the order of the next three was not expected: no one predicted Tsurskaya, Hongo, Nagasu. Hence, there are no perfect 75 scores. But there are quite a few of 65s. Hope tomorrow brings some changes and Satoko goes up - I need her 4th!

 

[Weathergal]

So Hanyu withdrew... so I'm assuming our #6 in our predictions will be counted?

Yes, I have a feeling this will affect nearly everyone - if not everyone!

Weathergal (scoring Men's this week)

 

[Weathergal]

So do all of our men's predictions move up a spot? Like if I had Jason as second with Yuzu in first then now I'm predicting Jason in first?
I went to bed and woke up to his withdrawal. But it was too late to change.

If I understood correctly yes :yes: That's why it's best for you to make a 6-skater prediction, in case one of them withdraws at the last minute (like Yuzu did), your predictions move up

This also makes the life of scorers tougher. I would have to spend about 30% more time making the adjustments to the lists or will have to make formulas much more difficult to single out Hanyu. Luckily with ladies that I going to score nothing like has happened.

SP placements are obvious on the one hand: Medvedeva leading and Kostner is second. On the other hand the order of the next three was not expected: no one predicted Tsurskaya, Hongo, Nagasu. Hence, there are no perfect 75 scores. But there are quite a few of 65s. Hope tomorrow brings some changes and Satoko goes up - I need her 4th!

Spirals for Miles and xibsuarz, you are correct - all the predictions shift up one, and anyone who has a "just in case" sixth guess is still covered for all five slots. Fortunately most people include their top five plus the extra sixth prediction just in case as CaroLiza_fan and other people who run the games have encouraged us all to do.

[email protected], you are so right! Before I went to bed last night (I live in the Eastern Time Zone of the US so this would have been just a few hours before the Pairs started in Japan), I had all the predictions up until that point pasted in my spreadsheet. I thought that today I'd only have to double-check existing predictions for any last-minute changes and add a few new entries that I hadn't gotten yet, and I'd be all ready.

Then I started thinking about what would happen if he withdrew and realized I could have a lot more work in front of me... But I will just put on some good music and get everything ready for tomorrow.

I am so sorry for his sake that he had to withdraw! What a heartbreak - I hope he can come back for the Olympics if not sooner. He is such a strong competitor - I am sure if there's any way possible, he will do it.